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C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 8th, 2020

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July 8, 2020

Transcript is below!

2:05

Paul Sporer: It’s time to chat! I had a mock draft hence the hour delay on start time, btw.
2:12

Owen: You predicted Hampson to lead the league in steals. I love it. But where do you think he will get most of his PT? Is that a prediction that Hilliard and Rodgers don’t get much action?
2:12

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be the primary 2B and spot into the OF
2:12

Paul Sporer: Though I know the Rockies cannot be trusted to be smart
2:13

Bobby: Considering letting Nate Lowe ($4) go in a dynasty and trying to get him cheaper in the draft + keeping Eric Thames 테임즈 ($3) and his playing time instead. Wise gamble or foolish?
2:15

Paul Sporer: No, I can get behind this move for sure. Thames should have full-time against righties and it’s hard to guess at Lowe’s PT at all

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ERA Estimators, Pt. I: Past

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July 8, 2020

I semi-recently had the honor of presenting at PitcherList’s PitchCon online conference, which raised a good chunk of money for Feeding America. My presentation, “ERA Estimators: Past, Present, and Future,” discussed, well, exactly what it sounds like. Over three posts, I will recap and elaborate upon various talking points from the presentation.

I hoped to make this content accessible to all levels of (fantasy) baseball fandom. With that in mind, the content throughout, but especially in this first post, may feel a bit remedial to the common FanGraphs/RotoGraphs reader. Nor do I claim this content to be necessarily original or expansive; the array of articles comparing and arguing the merits of the “big three” ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) and more is broad. You can find a wealth of information in FanGraphs’ glossary already, if not elsewhere.

However, if this does happen to be your first exposure to ERA estimators or you are familiar with them but don’t necessarily understand their innards, then I hope you find this launching-off point beneficial.

ERA Estimators, Part I: Past

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2020 Prospect Opportunities — Dodgers

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July 8, 2020

Today, we continue through our last division, as we finish our series in the National League West to discuss potential opportunities for prospects to earn starting jobs at positions currently manned by a player at risk of losing his job if his poor play continues. We’ll move on to the Dodgers. LOL at the notion they have any players that might be at risk of losing their starting job due to poor performance. They have literally no players, whether a hitter or a pitcher, that would fit the criteria I have been using for this series. So, I will just discuss a handful of prospects who should be kept on fantasy radars.

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Roto Riteup: July 8, 2020

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July 8, 2020

I missed you, baseball. I missed you.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 826 – Picking Hitting League Leaders

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July 7, 2020

07/07/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • Everyone has COVID

HITTING LEAGUE LEADERS

  • HR AL/NL – Justin picks Cruz/Soler; Arenado/Suarez | Paul picks Olson/K.Davis; Schwarber/Conforto
  • SB AL/NL – J: Mallex/Merrifield; Villar/Dyson | P: Buxton/Mercado; Hampson/Edman
  • AVG AL/NL – J: JD/Fletcher; Cain/Kendrick | P: Arraez/Astudillo; J.Turner/Winker
  • R AL/NL – J: Bregman/Semien; Cutch/Nimmo | P: Kepler/Moncada; Albies/Akiyama
  • RBI AL/NL – J: Devers/Chapman; Harper/Bell | P: Cruz/Gallo; Story/Moose-Cast

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National League Schedule Analysis

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July 7, 2020

I usually don’t worry about schedule specific details during a regular season since so much can change in a month or two. This season is only going to last a couple of months, so it has some importance. I dug through all of the National League teams trying to find some stretches to stream players. I didn’t find a bunch of one to two-week stretches but I did come to some overarching themes.

I tried to digest as much of the information as possible and I’m sure I’ve missed something obvious. I started the analysis hoping to find a list of week-by-week targets to stream and came away with a new perspective.
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Jeff Zimmerman Fantasy Baseball Chat

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July 7, 2020
3:00
JP: Who’s one player you were off on in a full season but are now targeting in the abbreviated season?
3:01
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s more to do with the DH, but Braun
3:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I thought I might like RP more but the market jumped on them.
3:02
Chris: Are you grabbing treinen or someone else as a speculative add?
3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: No speculation but more of handcuff for my closer. If I get Diaz, I might also add Lugo.
3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Over the past 6 seasons, on average 5 closers have lost their jobs in the first two months

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2020 Prospect Opportunities — Diamondbacks

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July 7, 2020

Today, we finally get to our last division, as we finish our series in the National League West to discuss potential opportunities for prospects to earn starting jobs at positions currently manned by a player at risk of losing his job if his poor play continues. We’ll begin with the Diamondbacks.

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Roto Riteup: July 7, 2020

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July 7, 2020

Took a global pandemic for baseball to promote their best player:

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Six Bargain Buys Using Projections

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July 6, 2020

Name value is a helluva drug in the fantasy game and often leads to overvalued players going several rounds higher than comparable players. Sometimes the name value is indicative of a star-level player who has shown heights in his past that are worth betting on at a loftier pick than his would-be equal counterpart, but a lot of times it’s just an opportunity to scoop comparable skills much cheaper.

Here’s one such case at each position using The BAT X projections:

CATCHER

Yasmani Grandal 116 ADP | Projection .235 AVG, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 71 R, 2 SB

Salvador Perez 158 ADP | Projection .255, 28, 81, 62, 0

A big part of this difference is that fact that Perez missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, Perez put up four straight seasons of 20+ HR with strong RBI counts (for the position) and decent R totals which is exactly what Grandal has done in his last four years. In standard leagues, Perez is arguably better thanks to spiking some useful batting averages over the years while Grandal is always a drag in that position (OBP leagues are a different story as Grandal has a career 14% BB rate). This three-round difference is almost certainly based on the fact that Perez is returning from injury and despite being a Grandal fan, I’ll take the discount.

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