• Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Paul Sporer, Justin Mason, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 659 – Late Round Hitters to Target

3/19/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – PRE-ORDERS AVAILABLE NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms for the March 22nd release! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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Late Hitters I Like

ADP (select Main Event in the second column)

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/19/2019

A wild chat transcript has appeared. Throw pokeball!

3:49
Brad Johnson: Let’s get the queue rolling. We’ll start in a few minutes.

3:50
Brad Johnson:

The Trout Deal…

Team Wins (24.5% | 51 votes)
 
Trout Wins (11.0% | 23 votes)
 
Both Win (64.4% | 134 votes)
 

Total Votes: 208
3:52
JC at the Bat: Hi Brad –  10 Team NL only auction.  Deciding between my last 2 keepers.  I am thinking either Strop / AJ Minter (theoretically could not have to bid on a closer) or L Castillo / Marquez (2 low floor, high ceiling lottery picks).  The Auction calculator say to go with the latter, and I hate wasting keeper spots on closers….but SAVES!  Any advice?

3:53
Brad Johnson: Definitely go for the SP

3:53
Brad Johnson: I think I still prefer Marquez by a small margin (was asked the same Castillo or Marquez in past weeks)

3:53
Brad Johnson: They’re both very talented pitchers with some ballpark and track record issues.

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Tout Wars Auction & NFBC Draft Recaps

I’m headed back from a weekend in New York City after participating in the 15-team Tout Wars mixed auction and a NFBC Main Event league. It was great catching up with everyone and meeting some new faces such as our first president. The weekend didn’t completely consisit of bagels and beers. I had work to do and compiled a couple of teams. Here are my thoughts which other fantasy owners may find helpful.

Pre-weekend thoughts (written before either event).

  • Historically the Tout Wars hitter/pitcher split has been a steady 70%/30%. With pitchers being taken earlier and earlier this season, I wonder if this split will change. I’m creating my values with the 70/30 split but know I may need to adjust the split on the fly. Read the rest of this entry »

Draft Review: Tout Wars Head-to-Head Points

This past weekend was Tour Wars weekend in New York City. The committee extended me an invitation, likely by mistake, into its head-to-head points league auction. I’ll take a moment to self-indulge and say it’s pretty surreal to finally, like, reach the pinnacle, in a sense. I appreciate and am endlessly grateful for the kind words folks have extended my way in the past few weeks and months and years.

Rudy Gamble, of Razzball fame and a delightful human being whom I finally met in person Friday night, passed along to me positive feedback about my recent draft recaps (NFBC, TGFBI, Rotoballer mock), which seem to have been a helpful prep tool this preseason for some folks. I endeavor to provide a recap that goes beyond a simple list and self-aggrandizement — it would fundamentally misrepresent my rampant self-doubt. Besides, I think it’s helpful to articulate a plan and, when a plan falls apart, how a plan changes mid-draft.

This draft review differs from previous reviews in that the Tout Wars head-to-head points league spawns from an auction draft and not a snake. (A classic auction, each of the 12 teams was allocated $260 to fill 24-man rosters.) Thus, the structure will vary and may be a bit rough around the edges. Still, let’s give this a shot.

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TGFBI Recap – Pitchers

In my previous post, I looked at the hitting landscape for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) drafts. I also analyzed my own personal team in League #6 providing player commentary along the way.

Now let’s focus on the pitching.

General Observations

Closers

The first closer, Edwin Diaz was selected in either the 4th or 5th rounds of all TGFBI drafts. Diaz was the consensus top closer.

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Nick Dika’s Bold Predictions for 2019

Ah yes. Predictions. While they might not always be accurate, they sure are fun to make. So comin’ in hot just ahead of opening day in Japan are my boldest ideas about what will happen during the 2019 baseball season.

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Roto Riteup: March 19, 2019

Less than 24 hours until real baseball!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 658 – Draft Weekend in NYC

3/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable transactions

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A Lesson from Tout Wars: Should We Resist Bidding Inflation?

Mistakes and regrets are a nearly inevitable part of auctions (at least in my experience), and so is the waiting to make up for those missteps in the following year’s auction. On Saturday, my chance to improve on my 2018 Tout Wars mixed league auction finally arrived.

So it was disconcerting to spend a total of $82 in the early going on three players who all enter 2019 with major concerns. My biggest bid in the entire auction went towards Chris Sale, who cost me $36. The Red Sox’s ace was bogged down by shoulder fatigue late last season, and his fastball velocity is still a bit down from where it was early in 2018. Then I spent another $30 on Francisco Lindor (calf), who is in danger of missing the beginning of the season, and $16 on Luis Severino (shoulder), who is out until at least the beginning of May.
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Fantasy Fringe Five: A (Re)Introduction

You may recognize this, the Fringe Five, as an exercise Carson Cistulli once established and, weekly, pursued at the main FanGraphs site. I don’t know what you’re thinking, but I may have an idea. We — Brad Johnson and I, we — don’t expect or even want to replace Cistulli, nor do we intend to replicate or imitate what he could achieve with the written word. What a colossal mistake that would be. I would be lying if I said I never tried. I can sing his praises for days. He was my favorite, and he was probably yours, too.

What we do intend to replicate, however, is Cistulli’s ability to identify market inefficiencies. Fringe Five, while quintessentially Cistullian, was an ongoing exercise in doing so, often successfully, unearthing a list of prominent names that includes Mookie Betts and Charlie Blackmon (and, maybe, one day, Max Schrock). I’m not sure Cistulli would have ever divulged his exact process; in introducing Fringe Five, he only went as far as to say, with emphasis added editorially, the following:

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