• Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Paul Sporer, Justin Mason, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 16th, 2021

The transcript is available!

12:45

Paul Sporer: Welcome to the chat, y’all! Thank you for coming out!!

12:45

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul who’s your dream pick for the Tigers @ 3?

12:46

Paul Sporer: Any of the SS, tbh. I love Leiter and Rocker, but I just really want the Tigers to take a foundational hitter

12:46

Jim Leyland Palmer: Jram has been and still is the more valuable asset, but in a long term keeper context, would you view Bregman as the safer option, as his value is less tied to SBs? I have both and will be approaching a point where I may have to decide between the two this winter, am I overthinking it?

12:47

Paul Sporer: I think you might be overthinking it a bit. I really think Ramirez will age well, too, even w/a big SB component in his game

12:48

bg119: Is Austin Gomber a must-start?

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Bullpen Report: June 16, 2021

NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).
Read the rest of this entry »


Future Minor League Callups? Triple-A Starting Pitcher SwStk% Leaders — AL

Over the last two days, I have listed and discussed the Triple-A starting pitchers who appear atop the strikeout rate leaderboards, in both the AL and the NL. You may have noticed I also talked a lot about the pitcher’s SwStk% and how it matched up with his strikeout rate. If there’s a metric I like to follow even more than a pitcher’s minor league strikeout rate, it’s possibly SwStk%. Though this is just anecdotal, it feels like if a pitcher has posted a high strikeout rate, but just a mediocre SwStk% in the minors before his MLB promotion, he more often disappoints in strikeout rate in the Majors, suggesting his SwStk% was the metric that translates better, rather than strikeout rate. With that in mind, let’s check out the AL SwStk% leaders at Triple-A that have pitched the majority of their innings in a starting role.

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Roto Riteup: June 16, 2021

This is a really great perspective on the illegal substances used by pitchers in baseball.
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Lineup & Platoon Analysis (6/15/21)

American League

Angels

José Iglesias(.711 OPS) has hit fifth for four straight games.

Max Stassi (1.013 OPS) has hit third for three straight.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 942 – SP Injuries and “Hold or Fold”

6/15/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES

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Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 11)

While the hitters being dropped were hurt or replacement level, there were a couple of interesting starters on the waiver wire who could be an adjustment away from being productive.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »


MLB DFS Pitching Preview: June 15, 2021

Our MLB DFS lineups don’t start and end with pitching. I’m not saying to punt pitcher every night or even every now and then. I’m just stressing that each and every slate does not rest upon our pitching. That said, the pitcher position is so vital because it’s the slot where we can get the most accurate projection in an extremely volatile wing of DFS.

Our pitching isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they shape they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Tonight’s slate is a bit of a mess. The better pitchers are in bad places, the decent pitchers have been volatile, and some of the best matchups are drawn by the worst pitchers. It’s early in the day. A lot will change, but we’ll discuss these pitchers for now:

Pitcher Pool
Name FD$ DK$ SIERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Barrel% Opp *Opp wRC+ *Opp K%
Yu Darvish 9000 9400 3.41 11.17 2.40 1.24 6.8% COL 77 25.1%
Trevor Rogers 10000 10000 3.61 11.11 3.30 0.78 5.0% STL 106 21.3%
Luis Castillo 7300 8000 3.91 10.40 3.60 1.00 4.8% MIL 96 25.3%
Mike Minor 8800 9200 4.31 9.11 2.97 1.41 8.0% DET 98 25.4%
* – vs SP handedness

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Teams to Avoid When Streaming

Last time out we took a look at which teams you should attack when going fishing for streams, targeting favorable splits, and identifying any offenses carrying under-the-radar weaknesses. But this time we travel to the mirror dimension, looking for the teams that should make your oh-no-no list when looking for streams.

Remember, just because a team is bad, in general, doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad in every specificity. Bad teams can look good in some spots, and good teams can have exploitable weaknesses.

If you don’t believe me, just ask the Rays, who strike out against right-handers at comparable rates to the Tigers and Rangers. Or the Orioles, who are last in run value (per 100 pitches) versus RHP but are the best in baseball versus LHP. Read the rest of this entry »


Future Minor League Callups? Triple-A Starting Pitcher K% Leaders — NL

Yesterday, I listed and discussed the Triple-A starting pitchers atop the strikeout rate leaderboard. Now let’s flip to the NL.

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