• Waiver Wire Targets: Week 3
    by Jeff Zimmerman - 8/9 -  
     
    2
    I don't know how helpful today's rankings will be. Many feel like moves that should have happened a week ago. Almost all of them will be off next week's list (> 40% owned). Maybe with all the roster moves last week, a player or two wasn't added.
  • Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Paul Sporer, Justin Mason, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Hitter FB% Decliners — 8/11/20

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters who have increased their FB% by at least 10% compared to last season. That’s a good thing for the hitters’ home run potential, assuming all their other metrics remain stable. Today, we’ll look at the decliners, those hitters whose FB% marks have fallen the most versus last season. While this might raise their BABIP expectations, it’s bad news for their home run potential, unless their FB% reverts back to previous levels.

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The Daily Overlay: Bad Porcello

We have a 12 game slate on DraftKings for Tuesday! Don’t forget to check your lineups before lock. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: August 11, 2020

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
  6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

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Mining the News (8/10/20)

American League

Angels

• A simplified swing may have rejuvenated Max Stassi’s career.

“I feel a lot better after my hip surgery I had in the fall,” Stassi said. “My routine is totally different. Mindset, gameplan, everything is a lot better. Obviously, a lot more confidence.”

Stassi had previous experience with assistant hitting coach John Mallee from their time together with the Astros and said he worked hard with fellow hitting coaches Jeremy Reed and Paul Sorrento to simplify his swing.

“The short version would be I’m hunched over a little more over the plate,” Stassi said. “Kind of a posture thing, so I’m able to get into my back hip and keep my posture level, versus getting too uphill. My lead arm is now down, so I can work directly towards the ball. And then, I’m just trying to rotate as much as I can.”

The big improvement so far with Stassi is his contact rate jumping from 68% to 75%. The improvement has helped halve his strikeout rate from 33% to 16% and improve everything else. For his career, he has a .640 OPS but it is up to 1.096 this season.
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Randy Dobnak, Probable Great American Hero

It’s easy to dismiss Randy Dobnak, to turn him into a punchline. When 99.99% of baseball fans were introduced to Dobby last fall, they learned two things:

  1. When he wasn’t pitching, he worked part-time as a ride-share driver to help pay the bills (an altogether separate indictment of MLB and its broad moral shortcomings), and
  2. He has a handlebar mustache.

That’s just enough, but also plenty, to undercut a grown man’s legitimacy. It’s this very illegitimizing, I hypothesize, that has allowed Dobnak to fly under fantasy radars, even as he demonstrates nonzero aptitude on the mound.

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Hitter FB% Surgers — 8/10/20

Besides earning more playing time, there are only three skills-based methods to hitting more home runs — striking out less frequently, which means more balls put into play, hitting more fly balls, which means more chances for a batted ball to jump over the wall, and hitting a higher rate of those fly balls over the wall, which is represented by HR/FB rate. Of the three, the middle skill of hitting more fly balls is possibly the ideal skill you want to see from your early season home run surge. That’s because batted ball type distribution is more of an approach or decision by the hitter rather than an actual improvement in talent. We need a much larger sample to determine if talent has changed, but a hitter could seemingly wake up one day and decide he wants to uppercut the ball more in an effort to hit for more power. You can’t decide to strike out less or hit more fly balls over the well, though I’m sure all hitters wish they could!

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The Daily Overlay: Back From The IL

We have a 9 game slate on DraftKings for Monday! Don’t forget to check your lineups before lock.

 

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Roto Riteup: August 10, 2020

2020 in a nutshell:

 

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Bullpen Report: August 10, 2020

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
  6. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Here the bids from the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: RMontero: $314
FValdez: $217
CEdwards: $166
KDavis: $136
EHernandez: $128
TButtrey: $128
TAlexander: $92
DMoore: $82
MKemp: $75
KBubic: $72
MStassi: $71
BTaylor: $67
AGimenez: $62
JLester: $52
EGonzalez: $44
JCronenworth: $44
MFord: $44
AWojciechowski: $42
LGarcia: $36
JSoria: $33
MCastro: $33
ZGodley: $30
DCease: $30
AVoth: $28
KAllard: $27
BBielak: $27
JArrieta: $23
TWilliams: $22
JBrubaker: $18
BKeller: $18
FCervelli: $12
TMilone: $11
HRenfroe: $6
ADickerson: $3
JStaumont: $3
CTromp: $2
JWendle: $1

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: RMontero: $500
RWick: $254
TMilone: $191
MTauchman: $152
DMoore: $114
ASenzatela: $93
JChoi: $78
MKemp: $57
CEdwards: $57
ACobb: $56
AGimenez: $55
JBruce: $50
DPomeranz: $46
SRomo: $33
BBielak: $21
BGamel: $16
TAlexander: $7
HRobles: $6
ARomine: $3
MStassi: $2
JCronenworth: $2
LWebb: $1
BPhillips: $0
CEstevez: $0
RGrossman: $0
ADuvall: $0
RHelsley: $0

7:30
Guest: All things being equal, Yaz or Aguilar?

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