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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 838 – Soroka Out for the Year

08/04/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Who is Being Dropped and Why (Week 2)

Transactions are up as teams try to fill their rosters. With every player added, someone becomes available. Some players are duds but a few have some value on the right team. Here is a look at some players who may be heading to the waiver wire.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.

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Hitter Average FB/LD Exit Velocity Decliners — 8/4/20

Yesterday, I listed and discussed a selection of hitters who have gained the most flyball/line drive exit velocity this year versus last. Today, I’ll list and discuss the hitters on the flip side — those that have lost the most EV. What follows is a list of hitters who have lost at least six miles per hour of FB/LD EV. Small sample caveats apply.

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Bullpen Report: August 4, 2020

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

      1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
      2. Injury News 
      3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
      4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  1. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
  2. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

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Hitter Average FB/LD Exit Velocity Surgers – 8/3/20

It’s still super early, with only some teams playing as many as 10 games. And yet, those 10 games already represent 16.7% of the season! CRAZY. So yes, it’s still super early to evaluate most performances, but by the time we have enough of a sample to make better judgments, the season will have ended. So like I discussed last week with pitcher fastball velocity, let’s look at another underlying skill metric that stabilizes more quickly than a results-based metric — exit velocity. I like barrels more, but with the tiny samples so far, one more or less barrel will make a significant difference in barrel rate, so it’s simply too soon. So we’ll stick with average fly ball/line drive exit velocity, as it’s pretty straightforward — all else being equal, the faster the bat meets the ball, the further the ball will travel.

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Roto Riteup: August 3, 2020

Everyone last night:

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Bullpen Report: August 3, 2020

The 2020 version of Bullpen Report includes six different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

      1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
      2. Injury News 
      3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
      4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  1. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.
  2. Reliever On The Rise: Non-closer who is quickly moving up the depth chart based on potential and recent performance.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: As usual, waiver wire and FAAB questions will take priority.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the bids for the 15-team Tout Wars auction league:

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: CJavier: 257
JPCrawford: 153
TGott: 124
JJeffress: 123
JDiaz: 114
DPeterson: 88
JJones: 83
KFreeland: 80
TRosenthal: 77
CSulser: 75
MHarrison: 68
RRuiz: 65
BZimmer: 64
NHoerner: 64
NGoody: 59
DVarsho: 57
DSolano: 51
BBelt: 42
MGonzalez: 42
WFlores: 32
CEstevez: 32
JReddick: 30
AFrazier: 30
RWick: 27
MAdams: 22
ROHearn: 22
BAbreu: 16
KGausman: 13
DomSmith: 11
TToussaint: 11
JHernandez: 8
TFrazier: 7
DPoncedeleon: 7
ChGonzalez: 2
NWittgren: 1

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: And from the Tout Wars 15-team draft:

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: CJavier: 311
MHarrison: 247
TWalker: 222
JDiaz: 181
CMoran: 161
DPeterson: 104
JKarinchak: 96
TToussaint: 76
JJeffress: 73
CMize: 72
NGoody: 70
JFamilia: 61
TRosenthal: 57
CSulser: 57
BZimmer: 57
MFranco: 51
AMills: 48
DSolano: 47
BGoodwin: 42
ANola: 32
TWilliams: 31
KFreeland: 25
ELongoria: 9
DomSmith: 8
TButtrey: 6
TFrance: 5
JIglesias: 5
THeineman: 1

7:32
Slapshot: Are either Zack Britton or Sergio Romo a likely source of saves for the rest of the season?  My bullpen is hurting (Osuna DL, Diaz struggling, Kennedy stuck in limbo) and it needs a shakeup.

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Waiver Wire Targets: Week 2

Right now, the fantasy game has …. changed …. shifted … has gone just bizarre. It has only been a week and a half of games, but I’ve never dealt with so much uncertainty and the way I set these rankings reflects that change. I’m valuing MLB playing time and experience over potential whenever possible. I’m trying to limit the variation for now and will gamble more if a team starts falling behind in a couple of weeks.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers and hitters.
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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 837 – Closer Chaos, FAAB, 2-Start Pitchers

8/2/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3. Read the rest of this entry »