Today, our 2020 Prospect Opportunities series moves on to the Red Sox. Naturally, a strong team means fewer at risk players.
- Roto Riteup
The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
- Bullpen Report
Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
- Prospect Coverage
Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
- MASH Report
Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
- The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
Paul Sporer, Justin Mason, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
- Daily Fantasy Strategy
The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
- Ottoneu Strategy
Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
- Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
- Field of Streams
A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
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- 2020 Season Outlook
: Let’s light this fire.
: With the possibility of universal DH do I benefit the most in San Diego?
: I’m not sure with SD. I think it may be Wil Myers since he’ll finally have a defensive position.
: My Stras and Yandy for his Jram. 8×8, 15 keeper. Stras is expensive, jram is moderately priced and Yandy is as cheap as our league allows. Smell fair?
: Yea, I like the JRam side for sure.
: Assuming we get a 80 game season, has the option of going later into the fall been discussed? I feel relegating games solely in FLA, Ari, and indoor stadiums, perhaps we could stretch out the “season” to say 120 games
Predicting hitter injuries has been a fool’s errand for me. Besides players with chronic injuries (e.g. Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun), others and myself have made little headway in the field. With few guidelines, many fantasy analysts and owners handle hitter injuries differently. Previously, I focused on a hitter’s recent injury history. This time I attempted a different approach and used the hitter’s career IL days. In the end, I found a useful and easy to remember injury threshold.
For the study, I examined hitters from the 2010 to 2018 seasons. I have IL data going back to 2002, so I hoped the preceding eight years of data would get most of the hitter’s 2010 career total. Additionally, I needed the next season (e.g. 2019) to compare results. Additionally, I set a minimum hitting threshold (100 PA) to include at least some semi-regulars. I know I may miss a hitter who is out the whole season, but the two-week callups were diluting the results. In all, I ended up with a sample of 2365 player seasons.
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If you follow me on Twitter, you’re aware of why last week’s article reviewing 2027 and updating on 2028 never got posted. Let’s take a quick look back at the ’27 season before diving deep into ’28.
After an ugly 74-88 in 2026, we were demoted from Iron back to Stone and we took advantage of moving down a level with a robust 96-66 record. Unfortunately, it was only good for a 2nd place finish behind a 102-60 ballclub. In fact, the 96 wins would’ve only won one of the six divisions and not only did it fall a game short of the wildcard in my conference, but it would’ve been three games shy in the other conference, too!
Today, our 2020 Prospect Opportunities series moves on to the Rays. As a reminder, I’m not listing every position or every possible replacement at the positions I do list. I’m only listing positions with players at risk of losing their job due to potential poor performance and replacements that have a chance of earning positive fantasy value. If there’s a potential replacement who could get a shot if the incumbent fails, but I expect him to stink up the joint, he won’t be included here.
In this time of uncertainty, we have seen fantasy players do some unorthodox activities in order to scratch the itch of not having fantasy baseball in their lives. Whether it is KBO DFS, OOTP Baseball, Retro Drafts or MLB the Show, fantasy players are doing their best to fill time. Read the rest of this entry »
Note: This article was written in two parts, with the first half being before the draft and the second half after completion.
Tonight, I’m participating in a 1999 retro with several other industry analysts. The premise is simple: the owner drafts a 5×5 roto team based on the 1999 season’s final player stats. That’s where the simplicity ends.
I knew these drafts were going on but as I was busy with other projects, I hadn’t dived into them. Then Fred Zinkie contacted me to do an idiot check on his valuations for the draft that happened last Wednesday. I’m a fan of using SGP (standings gain points) for my normal evaluations, but none were available for 1999. Instead, I had to break out a copy of The Process and create the player valuations based on the Z-score method. (Z-score looks at how much a player’s real or predicted stats are above or below the league average for the draftable player pool. It takes several passes to get the correct valuations since the final player pool is unknown. The z-score method is helpful when no league history exists.)
After I was done, we noticed two differences. Fred used a modified SGP for the season and was valuing stolen bases a little more. We aren’t sure of the cause, but he gave catcher and middle infield a little more of a bump. I think the difference was from the different stolen base values. Read the rest of this entry »
Today, our 2020 Prospect Opportunities series moves on to the Orioles. This is a team that lost 108 games last year, so you better believe there are opportunities galore. And wouldn’t you know it, their entire starting roster is actually listed below! Let’s dive in.
About every month, podcast mate Rob Silver pours out his undying love and affection for the Rockies Charlie Blackmon. I’m not as much of Blackmon fan but this comment got me thinking.
To play devil’s advocate:
his barrel% went up.
His exit velocity went up.
His xBA and xSLG went up.
Hard hit% went up.
K% went down.
Prior to last year, he hit 28 HRs with 105 runs in his last 161 road games.
It’s possible last year’s road stats were just noise.
— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) May 10, 2020
Blackmon definitely hit the ball harder last year but so did everyone else with MLB’s juiced ball. Even with noisy data, Rob was right and Blackmon exceeded expectations.
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