1/22/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host/Producer

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

• Original Tweet

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: Android | RSS

Initially, I was not going to include the Padres in this series about bullpens on non-contending teams. I realize that sounds ludicrous, because I don’t actually expect the Padres to hold their own against the Dodgers and Rockies. My focus on selecting teams, however, has been more about effort to contend than about the current makeup of a given roster. Still, even with their pursuit of players like Corey Kluber and Miguel Andujar and all of their emerging young talent, the team could very well be sellers at the trading deadline.

That means incumbent closer Kirby Yates could find himself pitching the latter part of the season someplace where he will have fewer opportunities for saves and fish tacos. There is a case to be made that Yates would be worth keeping around for the 2020 season when the Padres could be in a much better position to contend. However, if they wanted to trade Yates in order to fill another need or get reinforcements for the farm system, they have enough depth to provide a replacement closer and still have quality relievers for other roles.
Read the rest of this entry »

We chatted about keepers, ottoneu roster design, and assorted players. Check out the transcript.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to get nerdy. Very nerdy. While I’m going to post some auction values end the article’s end (I just lost 99% of the readers), the focus of the words is to concentrate on setting a pitcher-hitter split by just using Standings Gain Points (SGP). It’s not going to work with every league type. Not even close but it’s a theoretical solution which can help an owner the best chance to get the most value out of every draft pick or auction dollar. It’s definitely a better option when trying to set in-season values.

The following process is definitely ripe for discussion and argument. While writing The Process, Tanner and I debated this idea and even brought in others to determine if the pitcher-hitter split can be done by using SGP values. We published without including the concept as we were still ironing it out. We are still not in 100% agreement but here is the idea.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I identified and discussed six hitters who appeared near the top of my barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) leaderboard. As a reminder, Brls/TFB is one of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation and is calculated by taking the Statcast Barrels count and dividing by the batter’s fly balls minus infield flies. Today, let’s check in on the hitters who surprisingly ranked closer to the bottom of the leaderboard, rather than the top.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year was an ugly season at 1B. It’s usually a power-focused position, filled with homers and RBIs aplenty, both categories often coming from several players. The 30+ HR hitters at first base were sliced in half last year, dropping to just seven after 14 in 2017. The number of 100+ RBI guys at the position has been dwindling for a while now but sank to just three in 2018. There were a whopping 13 in 2009 followed by 9, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6, 5, and 5 before only Jesus Aguilar, Edwin Encarnacion, and Anthony Rizzo reached the mark last season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Catchers … what a dumpster fire for a fantasy position. I can’t remember it being worse. It probably was at some point but with the increased knowledge of pitch framing, more horrible hitting catchers are accumulating plate appearances. Today, I’m going to go through the natural catcher tiers for various league types and show where owners need to buy for the best values.

Before I go any further, I need to explain a few concepts. I’m going to be using Standing Gain Points (SGP) to differentiate the various players. The main reason I like to use SGP is it takes all of player’s Roto stats and combine them into a single value. This important with differentiating the value of a speedster leading off or a middle of the lineup slugger. Additionally, I’m using The Process’s 15-team, two-catcher formula for all the following comparisons. It may not be the perfect formula when comparing different league types but it will provide a nice baseline.

Read the rest of this entry »

Unless you plan on attempting to punt categories at your 2019 draft, at some point, one must acquire stolen bases. If you plan on completely ignoring the SB category – you can stop reading this article now. But for the rest of us, here is a look at where some potential bargains for speed may present itself in drafts.

For these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from December 1, 2018 to present).

Read the rest of this entry »

This morning, baseball Twitter has noisily hopped aboard the Joey Gallo hype train. Industry folks noticed his Steamer and THE BAT projections which suggest he should be far more highly regarded than is currently the case. Consider these projected fantasy lines:

Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago, I discussed the hitters who enjoyed surges and suffered declines in their barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) rates, a metric that’s one of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Today, let’s identify and discuss some surprises at or near the top of the Brls/TFB leaderboard. Some of these hitters did post high HR/FB rate, so those hitters might not be so surprising as Brls/TFB leaders, but rather the rankign validates the success.

Read the rest of this entry »