As we finish a brief lull in the Ottoneu world – those 2.5 weeks after the end of the regular season and before the start of arbitration – we have a moment to take stock of what works and what doesn’t in our leagues, and think about how we can manage them better. On the Ottoneu community site, a manager asked about a “best practices” document (this was in relation to an Ottoneu basketball draft) and it seemed like now is an ideal time to talk about best practices, for both new leagues being spun up for 2022 and existing leagues that might want to align on some key stuff.
With that in mind, I spoke to a handful of Ottoneu veterans – players who have been in a bunch of leagues, been commissioners of a bunch of leagues, and know the game well. Here are 10 of the best practices they recommended.
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61-101 (5th in Division; 27th in MLB)
SP Wins: 28 (29th)
RP Wins: 33 (17th)
Saves: 25 (29th)
1+ Save: 3 (Richard Rodríguez 14, Chris Stratton 8, David Bednar 3)
100+ Ks: 2 (JT Brubaker 129, Wil Crowe 111)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Adam Frazier .324 [w/PIT; he hit .305 altogether], Bryan Reynolds .302)
65+ Runs: 1 (Reynolds 93)
65+ RBI: 1 (Reynolds 90)
10+ HRs: 3 (Reynolds 24, Gregory Polanco 11, Colin Moran 10)
5+ SBs: 1 (Polanco 14)
BEST BUY: Bryan Reynolds
Nothing sneaky here, their best player is their best buy. His rough 2020 proved to be a small sample fluke and his 2021 (142 wRC+) picked up right where his 2019 breakout (130 wRC+) left off. He went 90/90 R/RBI on the Pirates for crying out loud! He has great plate skills, a high AVG floor, and above average power.
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It’s cliché to say “you know the drill,” but you do! You do, indeed, know the drill! The one thing about bold predictions that gets me up on my soapbox every year is what it means to be bold. There’s bold for shock value, bold to be bold. (Or, not bold enough—its own problem.) And then there’s sufficiently bold (per market sentiments) but readily achievable.
Much of this is qualitative, so “sufficiently bold” and “readily achievable” are eye-of-the-beholder types of descriptors. But we can at least measure sufficient boldness using average draft position (ADP) data. All fantasy baseball websites use them; I use National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) data because it involves high-stakes players. (Let it be known that high-stakes does not always equal high-talent, but that’s altogether another soapbox.) Moreover, we can filter NBFC ADP by date range, so I can leverage ADP specifically from the final week of spring training by which time ambiguous spring training storylines have solidified.
I’m proud of my success this year. I hope a few of these picks were worthwhile for you, if you happened to heed them exclusively because of this post. That’d be quite brave of you!
(“Year-end rank” courtesy of Razzball’s player rater.)
Yesterday, I reviewed my pre-season post comparing my xHR/FB rate to actual HR/FB rate from 2020, revealing which players sustained those 2020 HR/FB rate gains. Today, let’s now flip to the other side — those players in which xHR/FB rate validated a 2020 HR/FB rate decline. Did their 2020 marks represent a new, lower level of sustained production or did it turn out to be a short season fluke? Let’s find out.
60-102 (5th in Division; 28th in MLB)
SP Wins: 33 (25th)
RP Wins: 27 (28th)
Saves: 31 (27th)
1+ Save: 5 (Ian Kennedy 16, Joe Barlow 11, Spencer Patton 2, Josh Sborz, Joely Rodriguez 1)
100+ Ks: 3 (Jordan Lyles 146, Dane Dunning 114, Kolby Allard 104)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Isiah Kiner-Falefa .271, Nathaniel Lowe .264)
65+ Runs: 3 (Adolis García 77, Lowe 75, Kiner-Falefa 74)
65+ RBI: 2 (García 90, Lowe 72)
10+ HRs: 6 (García 31, Joey Gallo 25, Lowe 18, DJ Peters 12, Nick Solak 11, Jonah Heim 10)
5+ SBs: 9 (Kiner-Falefa 20, García 16, Yonny Hernandez 11, Leody Taveras 10, Lowe 8, Solak, Charlie Culberson 7, Gallo 6, Brock Holt 5)
BEST BUY: Nathaniel Lowe
Lowe’s season was buoyed by an 8-for-8 effort on the bases and even with that he was just 20th at 1B. If the speed contributions are legitimate, he’s a mini-Goldschmidt coming into his own with a strong foundation. Even if it regresses, there is power and AVG upside that could yield a .280 AVG/30 HR season.
This season I went add/drop crazy. I made 344 moves (adds/drops/trades). The next highest person in my league made 167. There were times when it was so incredibly uncomfortable to drop a quality player, releasing him to the waiver wire. When sharks are circling the boat, it’s not a good time to take a dip. However, as I’ve mentioned many times before, one of the leagues I care most about is a shallow 10-team, 5×5 roto league where turning and burning is almost a requirement, and turn and burn I did!
All season I was looking for indicators that would predict small clumps of player performance. xwOBA did a tremendous job of evaluating in-season talent. But, this offseason I will be looking for more ways to catch those small clusters of player performance that seem to elude me. When MLB The Show releases its monthly awards I’m usually like, “What? Really? How did I miss that?” To be fair, those players were usually rostered during that time, but it’s the ones that sneak onto the list that I’m trying to create a system for.
• The six-man rotation is staying with Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez in the rotation.
The Angels are expected to use a six-man rotation next year with Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez essentially locks to be part of it.
For those in early season draft-and-holds and best balls, Sandoval and Suarez are reasonable mid to late-round options. Read the rest of this entry »
Confused by the title? For most of the rest of this year, I’m going to review all my preseason, and some in-season, posts where I made predictions or used one of my xMetrics to make statements. I think accountability is extremely important in this industry, as our reputation should hinge upon the quality, and accuracy, of the advice we give. Today, I’m reviewing a post that pitted my xHR/FB rate against actual HR/FB rate. These were the guys who enjoyed HR/FB rate spikes in 2020 that my equation validated, or confirmed was real or mostly real. Let’s find out if these hitters held onto their 2020 HR/FB rate gains in 2021.
Another year, another Bold Predictions review! This is an article I typically dread as the success rates usually hover at around 30%. However, this was one of my best years in doing this article and in fantasy in general. So, without further adieu, I present the results of my 2021 Bold Predictions!
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