Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 24th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Welcome, everyone, thanks for coming out!

M: Henry Davis worth holding onto in a 2 catcher keeper league? Been tough so far, is he gonna lose his spot once grandal is back? Top guy on the wire is Patrick Bailey

Paul Sporer: I’m OK jumping to Bailey

JG: Orlando Arcia or Edouard Julien ? 12T Mixed roto

Paul Sporer: Think Julien offers more potential fantasy juice

Tallulah Trebuchet: Considering buying low on Corbin Carroll in Ottoneu. Smart or silly? Is the power decline since July

Tallulah Trebuchet: re: Carroll: is the power gone? Shoulder injury a long-term concern? Or will he be studly again?

Paul Sporer: Not silly if you can get a discount. Power might be lighter this year w/the shoulder and obviously I can’t say for sure how it’ll be long-term, but he’s still a guy I’d be happy to buy in on for the long-term

Frank: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. Do you think Butto’s stuff plays better than the metrics? He ran a decent K% last year and it’s even better this year (I know, it’s April) but Stuff+ is really not impressed.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think he’s a solid arm. Team Streamer type that I’m holding whenever I don’t start him

Ezikel: Do you view Christopher Sanchez as a must hold in 10tm category format?

Paul Sporer: Probably not MUST hold, no. I love Sanchez but there are lots of guys available in 10s so I can see moving on if someone strikes your fancy

JG: Jose Soriano worth a pickup in a deep 12T mixed roto

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would scoop him

YANDY: He’s faced mostly bad offenses thus far but is Zack Littell better than expected?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s been impressive. Rays win again! lol

JG: Nelson Velazquez or Trevor Larnach ? 12T mixed roto

Paul Sporer: Skills wise they’re very close so I’ll go the playing time route and lean Larnach who’s playing daily right now

Ethan Bunt: Is Barger a must add if he comes up, or is it just too crowded?

Kate: Sounds like Addison Barger is getting called up by the Jays, possibly because Kiermaier is headed to the IL.  Think he gets everyday PT and, if so, how interesting is he in a 15 teamer?

Paul Sporer: Interesting prospect, but can’t envision him for anything but for deeper leagues right now unless we see full time burn

Jake: What should I do with Randy Arozarena?

Paul Sporer: Gotta ride it out. Just entirely too early to drop him or even bench him IMO

Ethan Bunt: What in the wide world of sports are we doing with Parker Meadows?

Paul Sporer: I’m trying to hold in deeper leagues, but I understand shallow lg cuts

Guest: should I take up macrame or hope that Carroll, Gleyber, Yandy, Suwinski, Gorman, and Candelario end this charade?

Paul Sporer: You can do the macrame while waiting for them to get on track, lol

Kate: Are the Phils really going to demote Turnbull to the pen for Walker?  Not that I think he’s some stud, but he’s pitched well and Walker isn’t exactly a difference maker.

Paul Sporer: I like Turnbull and he’s on my Main Event team, buuuttt let’s not get crazy… they are VERY similar pitchers overall. I agree Turnbull should be allowed to keep starting while running well, but I also understand Philly’s desire to get more out of Walker’s contract by starting him

Guest: is Jo Adell turning the corner??

Paul Sporer: I REALLYYYY hope. Too early to say, but I’m always rooting for him even as my skepticism has grown

Ethan Bunt: Toro any value ROS?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe deep leagues where playing time rules

Guest: Langford hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype yet. Do you think he moved a little too fast, and maybe needs to go back down for a few minutes to catch his breath? He’s not even running…

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll get a decent bit more time to work through it, but yeah, it’s been rough so far. If Texas was going to bail after fewer than 100 PA, then they shouldn’t have put him on the team, IMO

Paul Sporer: I’m OK sitting Langford in some shallower leagues, but I’m really trying to hold on a bit longer to see if things turn quickly

larry: in a need for speed. would you drop castellanos for either wilyer or rojas?

Paul Sporer: Can you cut someone else? I’d like to see it through a bit longer w/Casty, but if he’s the only one you can cut, then I’m OK going for Abreu. He’s been running and has some pop, too, so you’re not losing out the expected pop you’d get by holding Casty (assuming he turns it around, of course)

Broken Bat: i think there is Bird Flu in St.Louis… Contreras demoted a day or so in 2023 as catcher….publicly. O’Neil called out on a questionable running effort, publicly. Pinch hitting for Walker a week ago, and now sending him down to AAA. Let’s add who they signed to compete in National League… Lynn,Gibson and Grey to help Mikolas and Thompson who was also sent down today. Something isn’t working in the FO.

Paul Sporer: That’s just the Oli Marmol experience!

Kate: I assume DJ Stewart is a drop once JD Martinez gets added to the roster for the Mets?

Paul Sporer: Yeah unless another injury opens up a window of PT for him

larry: can amed rosario keep up decent fantasy juice or is this just one of his hot streaks?

Paul Sporer: The answer is kinda both. This is a hot streak, but he can remain fantasy useful throughout the year w/HR & SB as long as he’s playing regularly

Guest: Especially considering his background, Jack Suwinski’s 49 wRC+/16.7 K% juxtaposition is objectively hilarious, but subjectively annoying AF. We used to mock “pitching to contact” but perhaps “hitting to contact” is just as bad for some guys? So far this season when he hits it hard, it’s not hit high; when he hits it high, it’s not hit hard.

Paul Sporer: You’re not totally off here as his hard hit rate is down a good bit, but the .186 BABIP is pretty unlucky even acknowledging that he’s contributing to it, too. I felt he was being a bit too passive last yr leading to the high K rate. He might have gone to the other end of the spectrum, now swinging at anything he can make contact with. He’s gotta find that sweet spot! I’m sticking w/him, but I don’t blame ppl for cutting in 10-teamers

Fred: Hi Paul, in a 10 team AL only league would you trade away Kimbrel/Haniger to get Jarren Duran?   I would still have Hader as my only closer.

Paul Sporer: I don’t hate the deal, but I’m wondering if Kimbrel can’t get Duran straight up. I guess it depends how valuable closers are in your league. Hader should be fine, even if Houston doesn’t completely turn it around so I’m not super worried about your SVs outlook

Kate: Feels like we’ve been waiting forever, but is this finally the year we see the Luis Garcia (Nats version) breakout?

Paul Sporer: LOL I was saying that to Justin on the pod recently. Garcia’s been around foreverrrr seemingly and yet he’s just 24 this year!

seth r: Vladdy or Seager, which side do you prefer? (16 team, 5×5 OBP)

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Seager fan!

Guest: Ok Little, but what about Pepiot? He’s been ok, but in a meh kinda way.

Paul Sporer: On closer inspection, I think you’d find things a bit different. Pepiot has been better everywhere than Littel except ERA: 3.77/3.33 ERA | 0.98/1.37 WHIP | 28%/25% K rate | 2/1 Ws

Guest: I’m desperate for pitching help. Who do you like amongst Jose Soriano, Mitchell Parker, Clarke Schmidt, and Reese Olson?

Paul Sporer: I like that whole group, tbh! *WITHOUT* knowing schedules, I’d rank ’em Schmidt/Soriano/Parker/Olson and then review the schedules to maybe determine my short-term interest in them

Slapshot: Tarik! Tarik! Tarik!

Paul Sporer: Tear-ik! Tear-ik! Tear-ik! I have to get used to pronouncing it properly. I still revert back to Tuh-reek sometimes

Kate: I’m guessing the answer is no, but anything in the profile of Bregman or Lindor so far that has you at all worried?

Paul Sporer: No, not really. Nothing actionable at least. Just riding it out with studs like that and then I usually check in at the 250-300 PA mark to see if there’s anything to be done if they’re still sputtering

Ezikel: Stuck with a few struggling studs, shallow 10tm league, and have to trot out at least 1 or 2 of them every day. During these early struggles, what order would you prioritize playing these bats: Arozerana, Bogaerts, Langford, Vlad

Paul Sporer: Rozy, Vlad, Bogy, Langford

Shoe-Less Bo: Ben Brown any good this year going forward?

Paul Sporer: Very intriguing arm, just not sure how fantasy viable his role will be. If he jumps in the rotation, our interest spikes, but for now he’s deep lg spec at best

Ryan: Would you trade Gallen ($10) for Luis Castillo ($20)?

Paul Sporer: Hmmmm, I was a little lighter on Gallen coming into the season but at half the price, I’m not sure I get there v. Castillo (who I love). My Gallen concerns were entirely workload related after last year’s WS run. It’s no guarantee that it’ll hurt him, but I was just staying away at the top end prices. You’re not paying top end price, so I’d hold at $10

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Paul Sporer: ELIZA. BETH. OLSEN.

larry: can jack flaherty be a top 50 arm rest of season?

Paul Sporer: With these skills, absolutely!

Kate: What do you make of Albert Suarez?  Two good starts so far.  Our friend Nick Pollack had some interest in Spring Training due to the good fastball (though stuff+ doesn’t seem to love it).

larry: what do you think of albert suarez in the short term? worth grabbing him if you need help? or is he destined for a blow up?

O’s Factory: Thoughts on Albert Suarez? Picked him up for $2 FAAB in 12-team AL-only dynasty (10 man pitching staff, no bench, unlimited IL). Have Woo and Bradish coming back soon, so impending roster crunch. Obvs Suarez won’t keep this pace up, but the movement on his pitches seems real?

Paul Sporer: OK, so let’s talk Albert Suárez 수아레즈! I’m in. He caught my eye in Spring Training as well and I even thought he might break camp in the rotation w/the Bradish & Means injuries. I understand any skepticism of a 34-year old coming out of nowhere, but he seemed to really find something during his KBO stint and now looks like a solid swingman for one of the league’s top teams.

Great control, enough swing-and-miss to have sold K outputs, and great win potential on the O’s. Not some finesse kitchen sink-type, either, with a 95 mph heater. I loved him for this week’s 2-step (OAK on the wknd), but we don’t know if he’ll even be in the rotation next week with Means on rehab. Scoop him for the Oakland start where available, but then I wouldn’t immediately cut until we get word that he’s being removed from the rotation.

Bucco: Skenes next year?

Paul Sporer: I imagine he’ll be up in the next 6 weeks or so and could be a major summer standout w/him & Jones making a really sweet 1-2 combo atop their rotation

Idiotic Failson: Time for the weekly ‘is Goldschmidt cooked?’ question…

Paul Sporer: I can’t say he’s definitively not cooked, obviously, butttt I’m not moving out of lineups or off teams, nor am I particularly close to doing so yet, either. He just hit 100 PA for the season. I need at least 2x that if not 2.5-3x before really making that kind of decision

Scott: Cut bait on Merrifield 15 team mixed? Short side platoon and old?

Paul Sporer: Yeah there’s gotta be something better out there. Can revisit if playing time opens up, but a cut for now

Bobert: Should I drop Springer for Riley Greene?

Paul Sporer: No, even in a shallower league, I think you gotta have someone worse to cut. I do want Greene, though, so let’s see who else you could feasibly cut

SlidePiece: lol Bello on the IL 1 day after i grab him.  So fantasy baseball typical.

Paul Sporer: This damn game can really piss us off sometimes for something that’s supposed to and often does bring joy!

Chickie: Corbin Carrol, the new Joe Charboneau? Pat Listash? What’s going on? I mercifully benched him this week. Had to move Mookie back from 2B to do so.

Paul Sporer: I get what you’re going for, but neither Charbs nor Listach were anywhere near Carroll’s rookie year. At any rate, while I understand the frustration, I wouldn’t have benched him. He still has 8 SBs and 13 Rs (56/92 full season paces). The pwr output and AVG are the drags right now. The power wasn’t completely unforeseen given the shoulder issues and while that same shoulder issue is likely contributing to the AVG depression, I don’t believe his .247 BABIP will stay that low and I’d gladly scoop him on a discount in trades

Help please: NL only, cutting Michael A Taylor for Blake Perkins, Mike Tauchmann, or Alex Canario? How would you rank them ROS? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: In the order you’ve listed them with Tauchmann maaaaybe leapfrogging Perk if Belly hits the IL (X-rays were negative, though, thankfully)

Bobert: Should I drop Michael King for Jack Flaherty?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t, no. Anyone else you can cut for Flaherty?

YANDY: Utility bat in a dynasty league, Matt Mervis or Addisson Barger the better pickup?

Paul Sporer: Really torn there. I’m inclined to lean Barger just bc 1B is just generally easier to fill so Mervis has to really stand out at that position. I do like both, though

Kate: Any interest in Slade Cecconi is a 15?  Had some prospect cache once upon a time and now seems to have an opportunity with Merrill Kelly 켈리 going down.

Paul Sporer: He’s on the radar as a streamer, but I’m just not sure he misses enough bats to be consistent at the big league level. Pass on SD next week

Moneyball: Can we be contenders this year with production from Butler, Muller etc…

Paul Sporer: No, but I do think OAK will just be a standard bad team (mid-to-high 60s Win total) as opposed to be a horrendously bad one so that’s something at least

Luis Robert’s strain: Wilyer Abreu is apparently only starting against righties, is Will Benson a better pick up ROS in a points league?

Paul Sporer: Doesn’t Will Benson only start vR, too, though? Big fan of both, tbh, but have hard time splitting them much. Maybe lean Benson w/the park boost (not that Fenway is a bad place to hit)

Brian G: Projections still have Naylor about even with Torkelson and Vinnie P for OBP format. That seem accurate to you? or have you seen enough to think that Naylor is launching a new ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Projection systems aren’t going to move a ton off 93 PA so I understand that. I love Naylor, though. Health is his primary issue. Frankly, he doesn’t even need to hold these standout skills to have a breakout, he could definitely have a playing time breakout if he can have his first 500+ PA season and even push 600 with a super healthy season

Diablo: Degrom worth a stash in an 11 team, 4 IL spot league?

Paul Sporer: For as long as you can, but once you need that IL spot, I’d move on

daro: would you trade triston casas for luis robert in a dynasty OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah probably so. I have some concerns about Robert just in general, but OF v. 1B and the speed component are enough for me to lean Robert’s way

Rick: Walker was sent down. Has your view of him changed Long-term? I hope the Cardinals have a new manager by the time he gets called back up.

Paul Sporer: I’m a little concerned about Jordan Walker, but maybe more just who his manager is than him as a player. Similar to Tyler O’Neill before he broke free from Marmol. I just don’t know wtf is going on in St. Louis and I’m still surprised they extended him

Guest: Was 2nd half 2023 an outlier for Torkelson?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, he started slowly last year, too. Maybe just not a cold weather guy perhaps?

Brian G: Red Sox SPs! Does either Houck or Kutter Crawford seem like a believable step forward? Enough to be a solid SP3/4?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure! I am a fan of both and loooved Kutter in particular coming into the season!

Duck dynasty: At what point is prospect pedigree irrelevant (if ever)? Gavin Lux was a 70(!) grade prospect with supposed plus plus power. Is that still in there or have injuries sapped it out? Similarly guys like Nick Senzel, Jo Adell, and Brendan Rodgers have me clinging onto that slight possibility of becoming close to what we thought

Paul Sporer: Probably after 1000 or so PA. But until then, I’m someone who still gives credence to pedigree

E: Naylor is running a pretty inflated HR/FB, given minimal other changes to his batted ball profile.

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, and anyone toting a near-200 wRC+ is going to be running an inflated stat or three in their profile. He’s also smacking the piss outta the ball, though, so while the 2x’d HR/FB (up to 24%) probably won’t hold all year, it’s not a complete fluke, either, given how well he’s hitting!

Bobert: Re: Greene v. Springer, my other cut options would be Tork, Melendez, or Mullins (10 team 5×5 OBP). Seems early to cut bait on Tork and OBP is improving so hopefully seeing the ball better. Mullins has been great for HR/SB so far and is climbing in the order, even if lacking as usual in OBP. Melendez is streaky, but he has C eligibility in my league and mixes in nicely. It’s been hard to tell whether Springer is unlucky or whether we’re seeing early signs of age-related decline. Thanks for weighing in!

Paul Sporer: Well I certainly see how you landed on Springer! Totally agree w/your takes on the others. The C-elig. is saving Melendez or he’d be the guy. I’m OK making the move for Springer, but I want to be clear that it’s a pro-Greene move not an anti-Springer one as I believe Springer will be fine… his plate skills are intact and he has 2 HR/3 SB so maybe you end up picking Springer back up soon. Just keep tabs on him

The Batman: I just want to say that while I know it could be SSS for my entire team and dark times could be waiting, I’m currently top 20 in NFBC’s overall standings in my first year playing it and it feels insane. The work you all do here has been essential for me, so thanks for everything you do.

Paul Sporer: That is so awesome! And hey, those are banked stats regardless so it’s always good to start hot. Stay diligent on the wire and don’t rest on your laurels and thank you for the kind words. Good luck as the season continues!!

Jung Bong Jovi: Hi Paul!  What are you doing for the series in Mexico?  I think I need to sit Ronel Blanco, but not sure.  10 team mixed h2h, if that helps.

Paul Sporer: Yesss def sit him. He’s the only potentially viable SP going in those 2 games and he’s a sit. Start ANY hitter who’s playing in that COL/HOU series this weekend!

Flashback?: Sano or Will Benson ROS?

larry: jeffs article recently brought up sano. are you grabbing/ do you have any shares?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued by Sano and definitely think he still has 30 HR upside, but between him and Benson, it’s Benson for me even as a platoon guy.

Al: Lane Thomas‘ ouchie–is it James Wood-o’clock or are the Nats gonna make us wait?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s just Lipscomb/Senzel filling in for now

Ken: Re: Skenes, how much fantasy value is there if the dude is only gonna pitch 3-4 innings an outing?

Paul Sporer: Do we think that’s all he’ll get in the majors? I feel like he’s doing that in the minors as a way of keeping his workload in check so they can go 5-6 in the majors

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Time to drop Gelof for Luis Garcia in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Yep, I’m cool w/that

Colton: Super small sample here on Noot this year, but seems to have figured out a bit of lift over the offseason an dis hitting the hell out of the ball. Could be a huge breakout for him hopefully!

Paul Sporer: I looove Noot so I never want to overreact to a favorite, but happy to see his hard hit rate off the charts. I think it’s been more liners than flyballs still, but he has many avenues to fantasy viability even if we don’t see a major power step this year!

Anon: Gorman with 4 hits over 102 mph against lefties, including a bomb and 2 2B, over the last 3 days. Feels like he’s warming up just in time to avoid joining Walker at AAA.

Anon: Make that 5 batted balls for Gorman, over 101.8 mph over the last 3 days, all off lefties and including 2 2B and a HR, though the most recent one was a lineout.

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s one of those standard power guys who can look like he should be in AA when he’s cold and then in MVP consideration when hot. That’s why I was reluctant to overreact to the slow start!

need SP depth: Is Mitch Keller droppable for flavor-of-the-week type starters like Butto, Mitchell, and Suarez?

it feels awfully early to give up on a preseason top-200 type, but it’s hard to see him being better than average at anything

Paul Sporer: Depends how deep the league. OK to move in a 10, but probably still trying to stick it out and 12s or deeper w/Keller

Paul: Where you at on Crochet? His velo is falling while the ERA skyrockets last few times out, so wondering if he’s droppable now in 12-teamers or if you’re hanging onto him for the time being

Paul Sporer: Gonna be watching him tonight before doing anything. If it’s another dud, I’m open to some shallow league drops. He was found money either way given where he was drafted or picked up off waivers so I don’t mind making a relatively quick move, but wanna at least see how he does at MIN tonight

Bobby: Is Taylor Ward breaking out this season?

Paul Sporer: He’s similar to Naylor in that he doesn’t need to alter his skills a ton to have a breakout, but instead just stay healthy! We’ve seen how good it can be when he played 564 PA back in 2022. That many or more would likely mean a really nice season from Ward

Peter: Time to drop gav Williams? 12tm. Another setback…

Paul Sporer: Yes on the heels of the setback news, he can be cut

Mike: Flaherty or Crotchet?

Paul Sporer: Flaherty even if Crochet does well tonight. Even if their skills are similar (and right now I favor Flaherty), Flaherty’s volume outlook is MUUUUUCH higher

Paul Sporer: OK y’all absolutely killed it! I wish I could stay and keep answering, but I do have to get going and get some stuff done. I will have a morning stream called Boxes & Bull where we peruse the previous day’s boxscores and sip on our morning drink of choice which happens to be Sugarfree Red Bull for my dumbass. That’ll be live at 8am CT tomorrow on my Twitch channel – https://twitch.tv/sporer — come through and feel free to ask any questions there! I’ll talk to y’all later, take care

Frankie: Bellinger to the IL with a rib fracture. So much for that clean x-ray last night!

Paul Sporer: Oh dang, that must’ve JUUUST happened bc I even checked the news when answering that Tauchmann question. Tauch has some heat now! OK bye for real!!