Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – April 22nd, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Will get started in one minute

Guest: Who’s getting optioned first, Gorman or Suwinski?

Justin Mason: I don’t think either do, but if I had to pick, I guess it is Suwinski

Guest: Suwinski, Wade, Fraley is probably too much platoon for one offense. Odd man out to activate O’Neill is…
(OBP/SLG, no BA)

Justin Mason: Wade

Mark: Is Maikel Garcia a drop in a 14 team mixed league (obp) if have a combo of Adames and Rosario SS eligible? Gonna need a roster spot soon.

Justin Mason: No, just talked about him on the pod with Paul this morning and I think he is a huge buy low guy.

Guest: Do you think Oneil Cruz can turn it around ROS?

Justin Mason: Another guy that Paul and I just talked about on the pod. This is kind of what you get when you draft a guy like Oneil Cruz. You know what the flip side is? Elly de la Cruz. Both have similar skills. Elly will come back down to earth and Oneil will get hot at some point

chilly: more than a few writers seemed to be down on westberg in preseason. are you buying this recent hot streak as a skill change? i know sss and all that but the underlying numbers are kinda scary impressive.

Justin Mason: I do think this is some small sample magic as I don’t see a ton in the profile to make me think otherwise. He is hitting the ball with more authority but he is also benefiting from a high BABIP and HR/FB rate. I think there is a step forward happening to make him a more usable fantasy player, but I don’t buy that this is a leap

Adenolith: Shallow h2h league with 2 util spots. My offense has seen a bunch of injuries. Is it too clever starting Elias Diaz in one of my UTIL spots for the week in CO and Mexico City? Other options include E. Suarez, K Hayes, Eloy, C McCormick, J Heim and Turang. My current catcher is William Contreras so he’s gotta start.

Justin Mason: I don’t usually like this type of move but with the Rockies at home and then in Mexico City, I think I would do this.

Greg: Benson or Bader?

Justin Mason: Benson

Mike: will Carrol return first round value?

Justin Mason: I believe he will

John W: All the red on O’Hearn’s statcast page is blinding. Are we seeing a breakout before our eyes?

Justin Mason: Everything points to yes but I have a heard time not believing this is a small sample thing. I need to do more digging and maybe a swing comparison to see if there has been a real change, but the z-contact is up, he is swinging less out of the zone and attacking pitches in it while hitting the ball hard. At worst, ride this until it falls off.

Guest: Do you think Woo can be top 40 pitcher?

Justin Mason: I have not been a believer because it I don’t like his secondary stuff and now he has the health risk, so I do not believe so.

SS Slim: Think a trade of chourio for Peña I worth it for points leagues? Which side do you want?

Justin Mason: Chourio

Nolan: Are you buying into a return to relevance for Winker? would you take him over Castellanos right now?

Justin Mason: If he can stay healthy, there is relevance because he is in Washington where he will play regularly, but I am not taking him over Catellanos.

Mike: Which injury stash Royce Lewis or Taj Bradley? ……disregard team makeup.

Justin Mason: Lewis

Sp advice: Hi there, shallow points league (10 pts for QS). Trumbull moving to bullpen.should I drop?  Can you rank these adds: Mitchell Parker, Assad, butto?

Justin Mason: Butto, Parker, Assad

Guest: Is the good exit velocity for Nolan Jones a good reason to hold out hope?

Justin Mason: So I was out on Jones coming into the season, because the underlying skills were not good. In spite of the poor performance, but the underlying numbers have actually improved which is intriguing. I think he has to be better than this but maybe not what you wanted when you drafted him.

Thanks as always for the chats: MJ Melendez was dropped in my 10-team Yahoo AL-only where he is catcher-eligible and I’d been trotting out Shea Langeliers. I dropped 17 of 100 FAAB$… and no one else bid over a dollar. Happy with the win, but was this a case of me overvaluing an everyday 5-hole hitter who I can slot in at C or my leaguemates undervaluing?

Justin Mason: I think your leaguemates undervalued him. I love this pick up

Rickey: How worried are you about Jordan Walker… slow start, sitting more often, etc. Is it time to start looking for other options?

Justin Mason: Talked about him today on the pod with Paul. I am definitely a tad bit worried more because if he ends up in a platoon, it is devastating for his value. I think long term he is fine, but he could get sent out.

Mike: What’s Varsho’s upside in points league? Who would you rank him near

Justin Mason: I had varsho as a top 30 OF coming into the season and I think he is showing that he can be that.

Bill: The nationals Luis Garcia has been a nice surprise so far. Are you buying?

Justin Mason: Love the underlying skills we are seeing with Garcia and I am bummed that the year I didn’t draft much of him is the breakout. He is making a lot of in zone contact and hitting the ball hard at the same time. He is an aggressive hitter, so slumps will happen, but I would ride this for now.

M: Who to drop out of B De la Cruz, marsh, and winker? 5of roto league

Justin Mason: Bryan De La Cruz

Vic: Drop J Smith with triple eligibility for A Pages in a 16 teamer?

Justin Mason: Yes. You want a piece of that Dodger lineup and he is playing every day right now.

Nolan: are you holding eloy? h2h 12 tm league; alternatives would be de la cruz varsho or luis garcia

Justin Mason: Grab Varsho

Cory: In a keeper league, would you drop Gavin Stone for Butto or Soriano?

Justin Mason: If I am competing I would drop him for Butto.

Bob: Standard 5×5 league…who should I sit amongst, Taylor Ward, Starling Marte, and Dalton Varsho?

Justin Mason: Marte

Jim Joe Kelly: Is Darvish worth holding onto in a 10 teamer, with no IL spots available? Would love some news on if more short or long term, no clue what to expect. Hate wasting a roster spot, but with quality pitching being so tight already, do you think worth it?

Justin Mason: Nah, I would move on

Paul: Maikel Garcia will turn it around: True or False, and why?

Justin Mason: True. The underlying numbers say he is just getting unlucky. I think this is a massive buy low.

Number of games: Had a tough waiver wire decision this weekend in my 10-teamer based on number of upcoming games this week, 6 vs. 7. Went with the guy who had 6 (Starling Marte) because he hits 2nd over three Yankees OF-eligible guys, who hit 5 or lower. Did I make the right choice? How do you evaluate these things?

Number of games: Should add it’s a h2h league

Justin Mason: I think that is the right process generally speaking. I always a looking for volume if the talent levels are near equal.

re: Maikel Garcia: what is the caliber/type of player you would be willing to trade for him? two weeks ago, i would’ve swapped my Taylor Ward for him no questions asked, and now, i’m not so sure.

Justin Mason: I would do that in a heart beat especially considering Ward’s health history.

Peak trade time?: Would you sell high on Mike Trout straight up right now for Julio Rodriguez?  And if you were the Julio owner, would you consider it?

Justin Mason: I would do that in a heart beat but I don’t know that the J-Rod owner would because they definitely shouldn’t given Trout’s health history.

Nolan: nothing actionable here obviously but any thoughts on whats going on with corbin carroll? early season jitters? the power just isnt there yet

Justin Mason: The power drop off is a bit concerning as the velocity and the hard hit rates are down. I hope it is not the shoulder, but right now, I am not doing anything.

Paul: Is Amed Rosario legit?

Justin Mason: Always has been.

Bob: Do you think Fairbanks will be good again?

Justin Mason: I am pretty concerned and took some shots on Jason Adam. I wonder if he is hurt again.

Britton: Hey Justin! NFBC 15 Team weekly lock league should I Start Cristopher Sanchez @CIN and @SDP or Garrett Crochet @MIN

Justin Mason: I will take the two-start and pray

John W: It’s likely too early but when do we usually reach a point in the season where perception/projections versus reality/actual production balance out or start to swing the other way? Is there even such a thing? Thanks Justin!

Justin Mason: I am usually waiting for a month of data before I completely overreact, but keeping an eye on core skills like contact rates, velocities, and things like that give me the early picture on what may or may not be happening with players that are breaking out or struggling. Still, skills like that can change widely in a few games this early, but you don’t want to be holding the bag or left out because you act to slow

Nolan: are you buying in on an amed rosario resurgence? or is this a flash in the pan?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. Rosario has always been a good hitter and the defense is what has made him lose playing time. The Rays are giving him an opportunity to play so I am on board.

Prospects: When will the next wave of call ups be?

Justin Mason: end of the month and beginning of April

Love Is A Battenfield: 12 team 5×5 OBP redraft. Drop Rizzo to stash Caminero, even if it means missing at-bats in the lineup for a couple weeks?

Justin Mason: I will never purposefully take zeros to stash someone. It will cost you

Guest: What kind of current-season value are you giving up for Skenes? Are players like Gil or McCormick reasonable? Way off?

Justin Mason: I think Skenes is such a unicorn that those guys are undershooting it.

In Play Runs: Time to drop E.Julien? I have Witt, Gelof & Arcia , just added Amed. Daily 12T roto With Witt, Gelof , Arcia & Amed. With Julien ; I’ll have 5 middle infielders for three spots. Looking to add Jose Soriano LAA

Justin Mason: I think Julien will be fine. The core skills are right in line with last year and he is still leading off.

Guest: Any thought on Nate Lowe in a 10 team league? Worth a pickup?

Justin Mason: He is a fine CI type, but the upside is limited because the massive power we saw a few years ago was an aberration. In a shallow league, you can probably find more upside than Lowe.

The Kid: What do we make of Mitch Keller this year? Walks are up, K’s are down. But hitters are making slightly less contact and his swinging/called strike rates are stable from last year

Justin Mason: I wonder if last year’s strikeout rate was a bit of a mirage. He doesn’t have the command and control to strike guys out at a 25+% clip if he isn’t getting more swings and misses. He can volume those strikeouts, but I think he may have been a bit overrated by his supporters.

Andy: Castellanos’ statcast page is ICY. Is he still a top 30ish OF ROS, or has he fallen?

Justin Mason: Core skills aren’t that far off from last year, but the velocities are down a little. Maybe he takes a step back out of the top 30, but I still think he is a top 40-50 OF

Nolan: will bryan de la cruz and varsho largely be the same ROS sans varshos stolen bases?

Justin Mason: No, Varsho’s contact skills and power are better.

Guest: Suffering with Colt Keith at 2B right now, but trying to ride it out. Drop him for any of EClement, CBiggio, or AToro?

Justin Mason: We talked about him today as well, so definitely go listen to the pod, but I think he will be fine in the long run but just not the breakout many (including myself) were hoping for.

Guest: ROS, you taking Butto or Mitchell Parker?

Justin Mason: Butto

Mike: 12 team 5×5 OBP league. Which side do you like in a Trea Turner for Kyle Schwarber trade?

Justin Mason: Turner

Elly will come back down to earth: how dare you question baseball’s first 50/100 player!?

Justin Mason: I hope I am wrong because I think he is one of the funnest players in baseball to watch, but the underlying skills aren’t much different outside of the better o-swing.

Nervous in STL: Talk me into keeping Goldschmidt. Do old guys rebound from contact and k rate spikes like this? Even the best old guys?

Justin Mason: I am not ready to cut yet but there is some skills decline that scare the crap out of me.

Strategy change: Have you thought about a way to navigate pitchers to avoid injuries?  Are guys who already had TJS and recovered well more appealing than the pitcher who throws in the upper 90’s who has yet to go under the knife?  I understand some pitchers have had TJS twice.  I’m just wondering what adjustments you have made, if any.

Justin Mason: Pitchers are going to get hurt no matter what. I think the best process is to not invite guys that have been hurt recently onto your roster because ones that haven’t will get hurt too. At large, it is a crapshoot.

Guest: Orelvis Martinez going to get a look at a call up soon? Crushed it this past week. Also is he a legit play in OBP Leagues once he’s up?

Justin Mason: I think offensively he is ready. The questions about his defensive home is what we need answering. I honestly haven’t looked to see where he has been playing in AAA, but if he is regularly at 2B, I would be interested in grabbing him because I don’t think 3B or SS is a spot for him in the big leagues.

Jared Jones: JARED. JONES.

Justin Mason: LOVE HIM

Christina: Would I regret dropping Gleyber for Luis Garcia in a 14t H2H dynasty? They seem to be heading in opposite directions

Justin Mason: Yes

Raysshouldgobacktodevilrays: turang breaking out? Nico hoerner of 2024?

Justin Mason: Definitely looks like it might be. Making insanely good zone contact and has the speed we love to see.

Guest: More likely to turn it on to last year’s level… Brendan Donovan or JP Crawford?

Justin Mason: Donovan

HappyFunBall: Is Mitchell Parker for real? Or does the rule about trusting guys with two first names apply here?

Justin Mason: I am not ready to buy it but the Nationals don’t have many other good options so he will get an extended look.

3ber: Can you rank these guys ROS for points leagues? Bohm, Chapman, Maikel? Do you have a clear favorite(s)?

Justin Mason: Garcia, Bohm, Chapman

golden retriever: Who to start this week: Fedde with 2 step (@ MIN, TB) or Bibee (@ ATL)?

Justin Mason: Fedde

Jack: Hi Justin! In saves only, Payamps or Ginkel? SP for the week: Quintana, Albert Suarez or Jose Soriano? Thank you!

Justin Mason: Ginkel. Suraez

Siri: Ready to give up on Gorman?

Justin Mason: Not yet. This is the downside to his profile, but the upside is still there.

BDLC Love: Guy has been on fire. Which DLC will finish the season with more homers? Bryan or Elly?

Justin Mason: Elly

Guest: How is Mitchell Parker doing this? I’m better off dropping Blanco and streaming Parker, then using that slot for streaming, correct?

Justin Mason: I prefer Blanco

Colton: Speaking of getting unlucky, Lawrence Butler is obliterating baseballs with hardly anything to show for it. Think he breaks out soon?

Justin Mason: Not if he is going to struggle with consistent in zone contact. 73.7% is atrocious, Gallo-esque z-contact.

Guest: I’m not sure what to do at 1B after the Casas injury. Would you recommend adding Anthony Rizzo, Lamonte Wade, or Ty France?

Justin Mason: Rizzo

Micah: Need QS: would you give Evan Carter for Sonny Gray? That’d leave me with Trout, Carroll, R Green, T Ward, Marte, and Langford in my 4 OF and 2 UT spots. I’m also stashing Kjerstad fwiw.

Justin Mason: I would do that in a heartbeat.

Tom: Hey Justin, I need trade help…10 team AL only…would you trade away Kimbrel/Haniger for Jarren Duran?  (Need SBs and runs). Still would have Clase and Yates as my closers.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I would do that

Not Ace: I’m a big fan of Jake Fraley.  Even though he is in a strong side platoon, he still usually manages to get a couple of PA in games where he doesn’t start.  The power hasn’t shown up yet but it’s coming.  He takes a decent amount of walks.  Throw in his speed and it makes him a rare roster-worthy platoon guy in most formats.  Agree or disagree?

Justin Mason: Agree for the most part, but once Freidl comes back, he may have a hard time playing as much.

Jason: Do you think Pham will join the pale hose this week? Who loses PT if he is?

Justin Mason: I think he could be up by the end of the week. I don’t know who loses the time. Shouldn’t be sheets, but it could be. Probably fletcher

Guest: I ain’t gonna drop Gleyber for Garcia Jr, but that’s how annoyed I’m getting. April, I assume

Justin Mason: Yeah, give Gleyber time.

Don’t Have A Cowser: There’s nothing at 1B/3B on my 12 team 5×5 OBP wire. Tiring of Rizzo, and his statcast page is ICE cold. Would you drop him to stash Caminero? Highest upside CI bat available.

Justin Mason: Probably not. Caminero isn’t necessarily lighting it up in AAA.

0 Homer Club: Who from the 0 HR Club will finish with the most homers? J Rod, Castellanos, Tork, Buxton, Langford?

Justin Mason: J-Rod

Honkus Wagner: How are you ranking these four ROS?
Gleyber Torres, Jackson Holliday, Ahmed Rosario, Maikel Garcia

Justin Mason: Garcia, Torres, Rosario, HJolliday

You Rang Turang?: Brice Turang will finish with a ___ avg and ___ steals.

Justin Mason: .270/35 SBs

Justin Mason: Ok, I have about 10 minutes left and a ton of questions so lets speed round things a little bit.

Wyatt Langford: just for this season, are you at all concerned about the lack of homers (or XBH, for that matter) and steals so far? i know he will probably be fine, given his plate discipline, but the lack of production has been kinda annoying

Justin Mason: He will be fine. I am not super worried.

Moelicious: Thoughts on Jordan Hicks thus far as a starter?

Justin Mason: I am pretty happy with him thus far, but I worry as the innings pile up that he loses his effectiveness.

Paddy: Who’s closing for the Brewers and Cubs?

Justin Mason: Payamps and Neris

Moelicious: Thoughts on Reynaldo Lopez thus far as a starter?

Justin Mason: Pretty impressed thus far, but similar to Hicks, does he lose effectiveness as the innings pile up.

Colton: Bought in on Albert Suarez after listening to you and Jason discuss him a bit yesterday. Other guys available were Winn, Elder, Paddack, Sears, Crochet and Louie Varland. 7×7 roto, would you have went with one of the others instead of Suarez?

Justin Mason: I would have gone with Crochet, but I like Suarez a good amount.

Bobby: Would you use the #1 waiver priority for Taylor Ward who was just dropped? Or hope somebody else comes along that might be more helpful for the year, given Ward’s injury history/

Justin Mason: I am not a big fan of just holding the #1 priority unless I see a stud coming down the pike so I have no problem using it.

Todd: Would you trade J Holliday in a 3 Hitter and 3 P keeper league to get Skenes?   My current keeper hitters are JRod, Tatis, M Harris

Justin Mason: Yes

spach06: How patient are you being with Nolan Jones in a 12 team H2H categories league? Worth it to buy low?

Justin Mason: I think he has to be better, but I also was not high on him before the season

Guest: Blaze Alexander or Kris Bryant in a 14 team mixed? Worth the wait on Bryant?

Justin Mason: Alexander

Bobby: Joe Musgrove looked pretty decent in his last start. Think he’s turned the corner?

Justin Mason: I think he may be, but I still worry about the health.

chilly: so i forgot about hayes back issues last yr before trading for him in a dynasty league. then of course he misses games w the back again this yr. whats your read on this and do u see it as a yelich type recurring situation?

Justin Mason: I am not ready to say that, but something to monitor closely for sure

Guest: Would you be exploring trades for Turang if guys like Luis Garcia, Johan Rojas, or Haniger are freely available? I could use just about anything on offense.

Justin Mason: I want Turang over all those guys.

KJ: Wilyer Abreu has a 400+ BABIP through almost 150 PAs, how long does BABIP take to normalize? I know high speed guys can usually stay a little over 300, but this feels unsustainable?

Justin Mason: It is very unsustainable. I think the underlying skills are saying this is a hot streak that will fall apart here soon.

OBP League: Who do like best and least in this cadre: Larnach, Harold Ramirez, Bleday, Jonatan Clase?

Justin Mason: Most: Ramierez Least: Larnach

tortycraig: Ohearn and others available on waivers – trade Alonso for Holliday in a 10-team OBP keepers league if the other person will take it?

Justin Mason: I am not doing that.

Bobby: Do you think Oakland will give Esteury Ruiz more regular starts or will he still be a somewhat bench player for the A’s?

Justin Mason: Hard to know what Oakland will do because it is a terrible franchise.

Guest: Re Rosario – According to Statcast, his BB% is at a career los of 1.3% (it’s never been good), but his barrel% is 2-3 times better than his historical and his hard hit is in the top 10% of the league.  Do you think he’s just being more aggressive, perhaps swinging early in the count or do you think his swing has changed at all?

Justin Mason: He has always been an aggressive guy but makes good contact in the zone to overcome pitchers. The aggressiveness will lead to slumps, but I am a buyer for the short term

Fair trade?: 6×6 Keep forever – Strider and C. Walker for Kirby and Hader. Strider owner is trying to win now, Kirby owner is playing for 2025.

Justin Mason: Yeah, no problem with this.

New Arms: Was nice to hear you and Jason back on air. I’m likewise a Slaten fan (AL Only league) but was going to cut for a starter. Do you like any of Cannon/Nastrini/Tyler Alexander/Lorenzen/Sears or should I stick with the RP?

Justin Mason: I have no problem cutting for Sears or Lorenzen if you need a starter.

Matt: Ump show in NY

Justin Mason: Feels like we have had a number of ump shows this year already

LenFuego: Everybody interested in prospects is rightly jazzed about Joey Loperfido of the Astros hitting 10 HRs in his first 15 games, especially given the holes in Houston’s major league outfield, but now he is 1 for 20 in his last 5 games. How excited should we be for his call-up?

Justin Mason: I don’t know if we need to be extremely excited, but I think he can get the call in the next few weeks and be in their lineup with the way their offense is struggling.

Ss atuff: Treat turner for chourio worth doing? Points peague

Justin Mason: I want Turner.

LenFuego: Dylan Crews has not played the last three games for Harrisburg, but I cannot find anything about him being injured.   Is there any news on him?

Justin Mason: Haven’t seen anything.

LenFuego: Test

Justin Mason: 1…2…

James Wood: Will he be on the Nats come May 15th? Meneses/ Rosario ain’t cutting it.

Justin Mason: I don’t know why they would start his clock tbh.

In Play Runs: Adding Jose Soriano ? 12T roto

Justin Mason: He is a streamer for me.

Skenes: Follow up on Skenes. Can you give a comp you think would be fair? Civa

Justin Mason: I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but Strider

1B Help: Would you trade Goldy for a hurt Casas?

Justin Mason: Not while Casas is hurt

Gustav: Looking to throw a buck at a SP who can get me some K’s and not blow up my ratios. Mize, or Mitchell Parker- is that something that would interest you?

Justin Mason: I want Mize. Parker is interesting but Mize is safer

Matt: Had high hope for Bo Naylor as a sleeper upside C. His x stats are terrbile, along with his real stats. Should I continue to hold, or is he a bust?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is a bust yet, but he is making worse zone contact. On the plus side, he is hitting the ball much harder. Jury is still out.

Justin Mason: Unfortunately, I am out of time.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!