Chad’s 2024 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: Outfield

As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original outfield rankings were posted 1/30 and the most recent update is 2/28.

Changelog:

2/26 – Moved Anthony Santander, Riley Greene, Ian Happ, and Wilyer Abreu down a tier to better balance salaries across ranked players. Moved TJ Friedl and Jesús Sánchez each down a tier based on re-evaluation of projections and past performance. Moved 13 players from the $1-$2 tier down to $0-$1 tier based on auction results to-date suggesting that better options may be available and those players can be left as FA depending who else is available (Michael Conforto, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Austin Hays, Luke Raley, Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Renfroe, Seth Brown, Ryan O’Hearn, Connor Joe, Jose Siri, Sean Bouchard, Adam Duvall, and Andrew Benintendi). Moved George Valera down a tier based on injury. Moved Jacob Marsee up a tier based on opportunity. Moved Kyle Stowers, Walker Jenkins, Max Clark, Dustin Harris, and Nick Senzel up a tier as all have been viable late-auction additions and should not be in the $0 tier. Added 15 players to the rankings as they now meet the criteria for being ranked: Josue De Paula, Samuel Zavala, Cooper Hummel, Victor Scott II, Jordan Beck, Miguel Bleis, Enrique Bradfield Jr., John Cruz, Johan Rojas, Dairon Blanco, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Dane Myers, Jared Young, Richie Palacios, and Nick Martini.

Updated Rankings:

 

Tiered OF Rankings for FanGraphs Points Scoring (2/28)
Rank Name Position Eligibility Tier
1 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF $66+
2 Juan Soto OF $55-$65
3 Aaron Judge OF $55-$65
4 Yordan Alvarez OF $45-$54
5 Kyle Tucker OF $36-$44
6 Julio Rodriguez OF $36-$44
7 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF $36-$44
8 Corbin Carroll OF $36-$44
9 Kyle Schwarber OF $28-$35
10 Mike Trout OF $28-$35
11 Christian Yelich OF $21-$27
12 Luis Robert Jr. OF $21-$27
13 Bryan Reynolds OF $21-$27
14 Cody Bellinger 1B/OF $21-$27
15 Brandon Nimmo OF $21-$27
16 Nolan Jones 1B/OF $21-$27
17 Seiya Suzuki OF $21-$27
18 Randy Arozarena OF $15-$20
19 Michael Harris II OF $15-$20
20 Masataka Yoshida OF $15-$20
21 Jorge Soler OF $15-$20
22 Lars Nootbaar OF $15-$20
23 Adolis García OF $15-$20
24 Jordan Walker OF $15-$20
25 George Springer OF $15-$20
26 Anthony Santander 1B/OF $10-$14
27 Riley Greene OF $10-$14
28 Ian Happ OF $10-$14
29 Evan Carter OF $10-$14
30 Jackson Chourio OF $10-$14
31 Wyatt Langford OF $10-$14
32 Teoscar Hernandez OF $10-$14
33 Jazz Chisholm Jr. OF $10-$14
34 Josh Lowe OF $10-$14
35 Eloy Jimenez OF $10-$14
36 Max Kepler OF $6-$9
37 Kerry Carpenter OF $6-$9
38 Jarren Duran OF $6-$9
39 TJ Friedl OF $6-$9
40 Steven Kwan OF $6-$9
41 Lane Thomas OF $6-$9
42 Nick Castellanos OF $6-$9
43 Chas McCormick OF $6-$9
44 Byron Buxton Util $6-$9
45 Joc Pederson OF $6-$9
46 Taylor Ward OF $6-$9
47 Jack Suwinski OF $6-$9
48 Jung Hoo Lee Util $6-$9
49 Kris Bryant 1B/OF $6-$9
50 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF $6-$9
51 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF $6-$9
52 Jake Fraley OF $6-$9
53 Giancarlo Stanton OF $6-$9
54 Jarred Kelenic OF $6-$9
55 Brent Rooker OF $3-$5
56 Jasson Dominguez OF $3-$5
57 Dylan Crews OF $3-$5
58 Nelson Velazquez OF $3-$5
59 James Outman OF $3-$5
60 Bryan De La Cruz OF $3-$5
61 Alex Verdugo OF $3-$5
62 James Wood OF $3-$5
63 Tyler O’Neill OF $3-$5
64 Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF $3-$5
65 Matt Wallner OF $3-$5
66 Will Benson OF $3-$5
67 Charlie Blackmon OF $1-$2
68 Jesus Sanchez OF $1-$2
69 Wilyer Abreu OF $1-$2
70 Mark Canha 1B/OF $1-$2
71 Chase DeLauter OF $1-$2
72 Heston Kjerstad 1B/OF $1-$2
73 Colton Cowser OF $1-$2
74 Daulton Varsho OF $1-$2
75 Hunter Goodman 1B/OF $1-$2
76 Parker Meadows OF $1-$2
77 Cedric Mullins OF $1-$2
78 Mike Yastrzemski OF $1-$2
79 Drew Gilbert OF $1-$2
80 Tommy Pham OF $1-$2
81 Roman Anthony OF $1-$2
82 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF $1-$2
83 Brandon Marsh OF $1-$2
84 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF $1-$2
85 Spencer Jones OF $1-$2
86 Michael Conforto OF $0-$1
87 Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B/OF $0-$1
88 Austin Hays OF $0-$1
89 Luke Raley 1B/OF $0-$1
90 Andrew McCutchen OF $0-$1
91 Hunter Renfroe 1B/OF $0-$1
92 Seth Brown 1B/OF $0-$1
93 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF $0-$1
94 Connor Joe 1B/OF $0-$1
95 Joey Wiemer OF $0-$1
96 Jose Siri OF $0-$1
97 Sean Bouchard OF $0-$1
98 Adam Duvall OF $0-$1
99 Andrew Benintendi OF $0-$1
100 Owen Caissie OF $0-$1
101 Edward Olivares OF $0-$1
102 Jason Heyward OF $0-$1
103 Esteury Ruiz OF $0-$1
104 Jonny Deluca OF $0-$1
105 Andy Pages OF $0-$1
106 Mitch Haniger OF $0-$1
107 Trent Grisham OF $0-$1
108 Alek Thomas OF $0-$1
109 Oscar Colas OF $0-$1
110 Sal Frelick OF $0-$1
111 Mike Tauchman OF $0-$1
112 Austin Slater OF $0-$1
113 Trevor Larnach OF $0-$1
114 Ramon Laureano OF $0-$1
115 Harold Ramirez OF $0-$1
116 Garrett Mitchell OF $0-$1
117 Everson Pereira OF $0-$1
118 Jakob Marsee OF $0-$1
119 Joey Gallo 1B/OF $0-$1
120 Dylan Carlson OF $0-$1
121 Alec Burleson 1B/OF $0-$1
122 Eddie Rosario OF $0-$1
123 Starling Marte OF $0-$1
124 DJ Stewart OF $0-$1
125 Kyle Stowers OF $0-$1
126 Walker Jenkins Util $0-$1
127 Max Clark OF $0-$1
128 Kevin Alcantara OF $0-$1
129 Josue De Paula OF $0-$1
130 Samuel Zavala OF $0-$1
131 Dustin Harris 1B/OF $0-$1
132 Patrick Wisdom 1B/3B/OF $0-$1
133 Nick Senzel 3B/OF $0-$1
134 George Valera OF $0
135 Mickey Moniak OF $0
136 Jo Adell OF $0
137 Lawrence Butler OF $0
138 Spencer Horwitz 1B/OF $0
139 Juan Yepez 1B/OF $0
140 Cooper Hummel 1B/OF $0
141 Lazaro Montes OF $0
142 Druw Jones OF $0
143 Jonatan Clase OF $0
144 Luis Matos OF $0
145 Nick Pratto 1B/OF $0
146 Corey Julks OF $0
147 Alexander Canario OF $0
148 Victor Scott II OF $0
149 Dominic Canzone OF $0
150 Brennen Davis OF $0
151 Leody Taveras OF $0
152 Aaron Hicks OF $0
153 Kala’i Rosario OF $0
154 Yanquiel Fernandez OF $0
155 Matt Rudick OF $0
156 Miguel Andujar 1B/OF $0
157 Jordan Beck OF $0
158 Keston Hiura 1B/OF $0
159 Miguel Bleis OF $0
160 Kevin Kiermaier OF $0
161 Rece Hinds OF $0
162 JJ Bleday OF $0
163 Drew Waters OF $0
164 Harrison Bader OF $0
165 Enrique Bradfield Jr. OF $0
166 Will Brennan OF $0
167 John Cruz OF $0
168 Tyler Nevin 1B/3B/OF $0
169 Randal Grichuk OF $0
170 Dominic Fletcher OF $0
171 Johan Rojas OF $0
172 Matt Vierling 3B/OF $0
173 Oscar Gonzalez OF $0
174 Stone Garrett OF $0
175 Rob Refsnyder OF $0
176 Jake McCarthy OF $0
177 Trey Cabbage 1B/OF $0
178 Dairon Blanco OF $0
179 Jurickson Profar OF $0
180 Pavin Smith 1B/OF $0
181 Robert Hassell III OF $0
182 Zac Veen OF $0
183 Canaan Smith-Njigba OF $0
184 Tyler Gentry OF $0
185 Dane Myers OF $0
186 Nathan Martorella 1B/OF $0
187 Jimmy Herron OF $0
188 Jared Young 1B/OF $0
189 Manuel Margot OF $0
190 Estevan Florial OF $0
191 Richie Palacios OF $0
192 Cody Milligan OF $0
193 Victor Robles OF $0
194 Jared Walsh 1B/OF $0
195 Wil Myers 1B/OF $0
196 Brian Anderson 3B/OF $0
197 Austin Meadows OF $0
198 Nick Martini OF $0
199 Myles Straw OF $0

 

January Rankings and Notes:

OF is a conundrum. On the one hand, the absolute top of the draft board is one utility bat (Shohei Ohtani), one MI (Mookie Betts, who is also an OF) and four OF. The three of those four OF are 1-2-3 on my overall rankings at the moment. On the other, the $1-$2 tier here is mostly guys who are either not going to contribute this year or who I don’t really want on my roster. But if you want to fill 810 games at OF, you are either going hard after the top few tiers or filling things out with whoever you like best from that tier.

For my teams, I am mostly going for the former. This likely means I am overspending on OF – grabbing a $6-$9 OF for my last option instead of a $1-$2 option means taking $5-$8 out of the budget somewhere else. I’ve decided I am okay with that. It matches what I find myself doing in non-auctions with 5 OF – using more early picks on OF than I typically would to ensure that the backend of my OF isn’t a disaster.

That isn’t my favorite strategy but, for now, I think it is the best one.

For the methodology and notes on the rankings, please check out my intro column.

 

Tiered Outfield Rankings for FanGraphs Points Scoring
Rank Name Position Eligibility Tier Column Note
1 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF $66+ I am not sure I have ever seen a case where the top projected player was SO FAR ahead of the rest of the field. Maybe prime Trout?
2 Juan Soto OF $55-$65 He doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls or pull the ball all that often, so the short porch won’t help him as much as it would help others, but he’s a great bet for 150+ games played and he’s an elite hitter.
3 Aaron Judge OF $55-$65 Promise me 150 games and he moves up to #2.
4 Yordan Alvarez OF $45-$54 Similar to Judge, the expected lost time has an impact on his value. If Soto-Judge-Yordan all played 150+, Alvarez would still be 3rd, but he would be in their tier.
5 Kyle Tucker OF $36-$44 He hits the ball hard enough that I feel like his HR/FB rate should be better. One year it’ll jump to like 20% and he’ll push up near 40 HR.
6 Julio Rodriguez OF $36-$44 I thought he might make the leap to the upper tier, but it doesn’t look like that will happen. Not that this is a bad place to be.
7 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF $36-$44 His performance last year has to give you some pause – he was in that $55+ group for a while, but I don’t think he finds his way back there and there is risk he doesn’t even get back to this.
8 Corbin Carroll OF $36-$44 He could pass Tatis and maybe even Rodriguez in the early part of 2024.
9 Kyle Schwarber OF $28-$35 He projects for around 40 HR and that still puts him in this tier and would be a bit of a disappointment given his last two years.
10 Mike Trout OF $28-$35 Part of me thinks that the Angels luck is such that, now that Ohtani is gone, Trout will be healthy and put up a massive, MVP-caliber season again, while LAA wins 67 games.
11 Christian Yelich OF $21-$27 Yelich has seen his exit velocities decline (they are still good) and has been hitting more ground balls again. That will limit his power upside, but it is working for him. He’s just more similar to Marlins Yelich than MVP Yelich.
12 Luis Robert Jr. OF $21-$27 We always want to see guys strike out less, but there is a balance between making contact and making loud contact that needs to be struck, and maybe a few more K are okay for Robert.
13 Bryan Reynolds OF $21-$27 If he ever found another power level, he would jump up these rankings, but I think that ship has sailed.
14 Cody Bellinger 1B/OF $21-$27 This time next year, he is more likely to be two tiers higher or two tiers lower than to be back here.
15 Brandon Nimmo OF $21-$27 The projections feel low because they see him falling back to <20 HR, but his gain in FB-rate could sustain that power gain.
16 Nolan Jones 1B/OF $21-$27 The .401 BABIP isn’t what concerns me (it will come down but likely still be high) as much as the potential for the K-rate to regress. Be he could absoutely move up a tier.
17 Seiya Suzuki OF $21-$27 Along with Jones, he represents a tier-within-a-tier – guys who have very high ceiling but more risk than the players above them.
18 Randy Arozarena OF $15-$20 His fantasy standing is higher than a lot of the guys a tier up because of his 5×5 value, but in this format he just misses that tier.
19 Michael Harris II OF $15-$20 Very similar in some ways to Arozarena and I would flip them if Harris weren’t hitting 9th.
20 Masataka Yoshida OF $15-$20 I am keeping some not-cheap Yoshida’s on the basis that he wore down and faded rather than the league catching up to him.
21 Jorge Soler OF $15-$20 I wish he would land somewhere, but his power plays in any park. He’s just not bankable like some others.
22 Lars Nootbaar OF $15-$20 There’s a $10 range among his projections and I am willing to pay near the top of that range.
23 Adolis García OF $15-$20 In the Ottoneu mock drafts, he has been going over $19 on average, and I think there is a bit of a “fun” premium being paid because he’s Adolis.
24 Jordan Walker OF $15-$20 I will probably overpay for him at some point because I think the breakout could be huge. This tier is more a “fair” price taking on some risk to get the upside.
25 George Springer OF $15-$20 The market has corrected on Springer, but there are still more people willing to go above $20 than I would expect.
26 Anthony Santander 1B/OF $15-$20 The changes at OPACY seem to have hurt everyone, but Santander has been fine. He’s a switch hitter, which helps, but even at home against LHP he has a 189 wRC+ since the fence was moved back.
27 Riley Greene OF $15-$20 The combination of missing time and playing in Detroit allowed his breakout to fly a bit under the radar.
28 Ian Happ OF $15-$20 For all the ups and downs, his 2023 is pretty consistent with his overall career line. That makes it the best bet for where he lands this year, but he is volatile.
29 Evan Carter OF $10-$14 Goodness this is a weird tier. So much risk, so much upside, and stable but unspectacular Friedl. Carter is ahead of the next two on projections and a slight advtange in debuting last year, but long-term he might be third of these three.
30 Jackson Chourio OF $10-$14 Chourio vs. Langford is a fun debate. I side Langford but I think he gets enough less playing time this year to nudge Chourio over the top.
31 Wyatt Langford OF $10-$14 As a hitter, he brings everything to the table.
32 Jazz Chisholm Jr. OF $10-$14 The OBP won’t be great and might be bad. The SB aren’t super helpful, so the floor isn’t as high. And all the injuries. There is upside, but I am going to be cautious outside 5×5.
33 Teoscar Hernández OF $10-$14 Not often does a landing spot move the needle a ton, but this is a perfect fit. Good power park, org that can maximize his value. Big fan.
34 Josh Lowe OF $10-$14 He looked like he was toast mid-season, and instead bounced back in a big way. The future is bright.
35 TJ Friedl OF $10-$14 Last season looks like a power breakout at first glance, but it was really just a playing time breakout. That barrel rate is really low, though, so there’s risk here.
36 Eloy Jiménez OF $10-$14 I know some of the projections look closer to $20, but at some point I wonder if a guy is just too beat up to get back to what he is capable of.
37 Max Kepler OF $6-$9 I had him lower down in this tier, but then I wrote the note “He was over 5.5 P/G as a starter this year” and realized that, yes he is volatile, but he could also be a top 20 OF pretty easily.
38 Steven Kwan OF $6-$9 He should cheat for power more often, trying to guess and swing hard. If he gets a strike, he is good enough with the bat to fall behind and still put the ball in play. But he was well under 5 P/G last year.
39 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF $6-$9 He was over 5.25 P/G as a starter last year.
40 Kerry Carpenter OF $6-$9 I went back and forth on Carpenter and the next guy like 5 times.
41 Jarren Duran OF $6-$9 He turned a corner last year and I think there is room for more power to push him even higher.
42 Lane Thomas OF $6-$9 A high pull-rate helps him beat his xwOBA, but I still see some risk that makes me nervous.
43 Kris Bryant 1B/OF $6-$9 Projections say $10-$13 and the market is telling me $4-$5. That is often a good place to find a buy low candidate.
44 Joc Pederson OF $6-$9 Projections here are all over the place but he could push $10 in value.
45 Nick Castellanos OF $6-$9 He’s been so up and down, and I am just no longer willing to chase the upside.
46 Jake Fraley OF $6-$9 He can’t hit lefties but he can’t be benched against righties.
47 Chas McCormick OF $6-$9 He seems like he should be a slap-hitting, glove-first OF, but he had a double-digit barrel rate and while his xwOBA was below his wOBA, it was still really good.
48 Byron Buxton Util $6-$9 I don’t believe he can stay healthy and after last year I am not sure how good he will be even if he is healthy.
49 Taylor Ward OF $6-$9 He projects in the mid-teens, but that feels high until you realize that it’s basically the average of his last three years. Maybe 2022 was just an outlier but if I can find out for <$10, I am in.
50 Jack Suwinski OF $6-$9 The sum of his parts will be in this range, but if you can somehow predict the freezing cold streaks and the fiery hot streaks, you could do even better.
51 Giancarlo Stanton OF $6-$9 The obscene max EVs still exist, but he doesn’t get into them as much as he used to, even when he is on the field.
52 Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 Util $6-$9 He looks a bit like a poor man’s Ha-Seong Kim 김하성, without MI eligibility, but the projections like him a lot more and I don’t trust my own analysis of KBO stats to override them.
53 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF $6-$9 He just never consistently became the more explosive player I thought he might.
54 Brent Rooker OF $6-$9 He was worth closer to double digits last year, but you don’t want to pay full price for that.
55 Jarred Kelenic OF $6-$9 I wanted to put him in the $3-$5 tier, but I would rather have a $6 Kelenic, if Atlanta believes in him, than miss out when he goes for $5.
56 Jasson Domínguez OF $3-$5 Shame that he isn’t healthy to start the year, because he looks like he is going to be fun.
57 Dylan Crews OF $3-$5 A lot of hope that he will be up this year, but I am dubious. There’s no rush and holding his rookie eligibility until next year has value because of the draft pick compenstation for ROY voting.
58 Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF $3-$5 He was better than I think people realize last year and while there is injury risk, I would rather take a shot at his upside than some of the safer, more boring players below him.
59 James Outman OF $3-$5 His results were solid last year, but a lot of strikeouts and a very high BABIP leaves me wondering how sustainable it is.
60 Nelson Velázquez OF $3-$5 He probably can’t keep up a 21% barrel rate, but he earned every bit of his performance last year.
61 Alex Verdugo OF $3-$5 I am sure I am the low man on Verdugo, but I don’t really get the appeal. The volume is good. The rate of production is really bad. And depending which projection system you like, there is no guarantee he even belongs in the Yankees daily lineup.
62 James Wood OF $3-$5 I am always a little nervous about tall hitters, especially when they show a propensity to K a lot. The power is huge, but he is still a year away and he feels risky to me.
63 Matt Wallner OF $3-$5 The things I said about Wood apply here, but he did manage to put up an excellent debut season. The red flags do exist though.
64 Tyler O’Neill OF $3-$5 Hard not to dream on that 2021 season when we all know it happened.
65 Jesús Sánchez OF $3-$5 I wasn’t sure I really bought his 2023, but looking closer, it’s hard to find a reason to be down on him. Putting together better plate discipline and better contact quality.
66 Will Benson OF $3-$5 He has shown an ability to adjust and bring his K down in the minors, which is enough to balance out my concern that if he takes a step back, he might never play.
67 Charlie Blackmon OF $3-$5 As long as he keeps showing up to work at Coors, you can keep plugging him into your lineup in Coors.
68 Wilyer Abreu OF $3-$5 He seemed to make big strides in his K-rate in AAA last year, and he needs to bring those to MLB before he is valued much higher than this.
69 Mark Canha 1B/OF $1-$2 He isn’t a bad offensive player, but he lacks the power that players need to succeed in this format.
70 Bryan De La Cruz OF $1-$2 If he only lived up to his xwOBA, things would be great, and if he only pulled the ball more, I think he would live up to his xwOBA.
71 Chase DeLauter OF $1-$2 I am higher on Delauter than most, but I don’t expect to see him much this year, so his price stays down.
72 Heston Kjerstad 1B/OF $1-$2 He doesn’t strike out much and makes hard contact, and that is a pretty good recipe for eventual success.
73 Colton Cowser OF $1-$2 I might like him more than Kjerstad. I might not. It depends on the day and how I feel about unique last names vs. alliteration.
74 Hunter Goodman 1B/OF $1-$2 Count on him in Coors; hope he can be used elsewhere.
75 Cedric Mullins OF $1-$2 His performance the last two years has been so weak for this format, I am running out of willingness to keep giving him chances.
76 Mike Yastrzemski OF $1-$2 Similar, but it has been three bad seasons.
77 Tommy Pham OF $1-$2 It isn’t impossible for him to move up a tier, but until he has a role, I can’t justify going there.
78 Roman Anthony OF $1-$2 More or less the same as Delauter (except I like Delauter better).
79 Luke Raley 1B/OF $1-$2 I wanted to put him up a tier or two just to justify all the $5+ Raleys I have on my rosters, but goodness did he fall off and moving to Seattle won’t help.
80 Drew Gilbert OF $1-$2 After the move to the Mets org, he showed more pop and more ability to get the ball in the air. He is probably not going to have much fantasy impact this year, but I am very high on the future.
81 Daulton Varsho OF $1-$2 He finished strong and I think he is a bit forgotten, but losing that C doesn’t have to make him completely worthless if he can build on his August/September.
82 Parker Meadows OF $1-$2 Meadows might be a better real life than fantasy guy – his bat is above average for a CF, but not for an Ottoneu OF.
83 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF $1-$2 He’s a glove-first guy, but he can hit enough – IF he can keep the strikeouts in check – to have some value and a bit of upside.
84 Michael Conforto OF $1-$2 There’s at least a chance it took a while for the shoulder to get healthy again and there are worse places to spend a couple bucks on upside.
85 Austin Hays OF $1-$2 Looking at wOBA or P/G it looks like he bounced back. Looking closer, the his power is still way down and the rebound is off of BABIP.
86 Brandon Marsh OF $1-$2 The BABIP will correct and the question is how much? But even with a relatively high BABIP he is probably just a $3-$4 player, and it’s risky to count on that.
87 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF $1-$2 I know some people love him, but the high K-rates make me nervous and he is still not close to MLB.
88 Spencer Jones OF $1-$2 Potential is super high. Amount of development needed is also pretty high. We might see him next year, but I would bet on 2026 being his first meaningful fantasy impact.
89 Andrew McCutchen OF $1-$2 We talk a lot about pitchers aging by changing their approach, developing a new pitch, learning to pitch at lower velo, etc. Cutch has sorta done the hitter version of that, gracefully aging into a plate discipline and line drives kind of guy.
90 Hunter Renfroe 1B/OF $1-$2 Fewer fly balls, lower exit velocity, fewer barrels. And his game relies on those things. But only a year removed from a strong season.
91 Seth Brown 1B/OF $1-$2 There were still a decent number of barrels off his bat in a down 2023, but the upside is “useful” rather than “star” or even “guy you should start everyday.”
92 Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B/OF $1-$2 All he does is hit everywhere he goes. But he needs to find a defensive home and the Tigers appear to be in no rush to get that done.
93 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF $1-$2 He projects to be useful but not as good as last year, and I am buying those projections.
94 Connor Joe 1B/OF $1-$2 Another example of a guy who left Coors without taking a major hit, but keep in mind he really needs to be platooned and sat vs. RHP.
95 Jose Siri OF $1-$2 25 HR is good. 25 HR with too many K, not enough walk, and too few hits is a recipe for still being below replacement level in Ottoneu. He avoids that fate, but only barely.
96 Sean Bouchard OF $1-$2 It’s not totally clear to me where his PA come from, which is keeping me from fully buying in on his projections. Promise me a starting role, and I am pushing up to $5.
97 Adam Duvall OF $1-$2 I just want to know where he will be and what his role will look like before taking the plunge.
98 Andrew Benintendi OF $1-$2 I know the projections want me to believe he is a $7 player but I just cannot for the life of me figure out why they want me to think that.
99 Owen Caissie OF $0-$1 It’s a 30 hit tool. But, 80 raw power? Except the hit tool is just a 30. Yeah, but the raw power is 80! He’s a guy to watch this year.
100 Edward Olivares OF $0-$1 He appears to be in line for a small side platoon role and I am not sure he hits enough to justify a roster spot in that role.
101 Jason Heyward OF $0-$1 Solid strong-side platoon bat, but he gets pulled for PH often enough that his P/G was still pretty weak.
102 Jonny DeLuca OF $0-$1 The good: he puts the ball in play and has a bit of pop. The bad: RH bat on the Rays means he only starts vs. LHP and gets pulled when the other team goes to the pen.
103 Andy Pages OF $0-$1 Decent chance he’s just buried in LA and that will keep me from getting too excited.
104 Mitch Haniger OF $0-$1 I could see spending a buck in the hopes that a return to Seattle lifts his spirit and, with it, his wOBA.
105 Trevor Larnach OF $0-$1 He was one of my favorite prospects, which has to leave you wondering why you have read more than 100 of these comments from me.
106 Alek Thomas OF $0-$1 Uh, him too.
107 Oscar Colás OF $0-$1 Last year didn’t go well and reports are that he will be getting every day reps in AAA rather than joining the big league roster, which makes him more of a watchlist guy for me.
108 Sal Frelick OF $0-$1 Another guy with dollar figure projections that don’t align with his performance. Calculators are spitting out $5 or so and I’m not sure I even want to roster him.
109 Esteury Ruiz OF $0-$1 It’s little more than a hope right now, but his September was great and the team seems to think he can get to another level and I kinda think it’s worth taking a shot.
110 Mike Tauchman OF $0-$1 He’s probably a $2-$3 guy if he is playing, but I just don’t believe he holds the job over PCA.
111 Austin Slater OF $0-$1 Still crushes lefties.
112 Ramón Laureano OF $0-$1 It’s a run on lefty-killers!
113 Harold Ramírez OF $0-$1 Small side platoon bat whose value is entirely caught up in BABIP.
114 Garrett Mitchell OF $0-$1 His minor league track record suggests he might be able to lower the K-rate, but it’s far from a guarantee.
115 George Valera OF $0-$1 He was once one of my favorite prospects, but the reason I don’t roster guys who are multiple years away is because there is too much to learn before they get to MLB.
116 Joey Wiemer OF $0-$1 He almost has to hit more LD than he did last year, but will it be enough to matter?
117 Everson Pereira OF $0-$1 The scouting grades on the power are good but you have to make contact before the contact can be loud.
118 Joey Gallo 1B/OF $0-$1 The strikeouts have gotten just enough worse and the top end EV just enough lower that the balance no longer works.
119 Trent Grisham OF $0-$1 Increased his walks, barrels and EV last year, which brought up his xwOBA, though his wOBA didn’t come with it. Wouldn’t be shocked if he has a solid season.
120 Dylan Carlson OF $0-$1 There’s really nothing under the hood to make me think a breakout is coming.
121 Alec Burleson 1B/OF $0-$1 Being a Cardinals OF prospect has not been a very successful career choice lately.
122 Eddie Rosario OF $0-$1 He’ll land somewhere and he’ll be picked up by a bunch of fantasy managers just after a hot streak and dropped again the next week.
123 Starling Marte OF $0-$1 He was never really built for FanGraphs Points and decline is likely setting in.
124 DJ Stewart OF $0-$1 He suddenly looked like a stud last year, but I don’t think he has the batted ball quality to maintain that HR/FB rate.
125 Patrick Wisdom 1B/3B/OF $0-$1 You would expect a guy with this much power to be over 5 P/G as a starter, but he’s just not a conventional Wisdom.
126 Kyle Stowers OF $0 If he can make some plate discipline adjustments, he could be an interesting bat, but he probably requires a trade to find regular time.
127 Dustin Harris 1B/OF $0 I feel like he might be a decent player but he is like the 83rd choice OF for Texas at the moment.
128 Nick Senzel 3B/OF $0 If he can stay on the field, he’ll get one last shot.
129 Mickey Moniak OF $0 Moniak wasn’t good last year and I don’t think he’ll be good this year, but he’s better than Adell and one of them has to play I guess.
130 Jo Adell OF $0 He is out of options and that is about the only thing he has going for him at this point.
131 Lawrence Butler OF $0 I get the power upside, but that feels like a future thing more than a right now thing.
132 Spencer Horwitz 1B/OF $0 Underpowered 1B prospects trying to play the OF aren’t my jam.
133 Juan Yepez 1B/OF $0 The Nats are turning into the land of misfit toys and Yepez is their latest addition (and one I will watch to see how he does).
134 Jonatan Clase OF $0 His first look at the high minors wasn’t particularly impressive, other than the billion stolen bases.
135 Luis Matos OF $0 A low-K, low-power OF who makes his MLB living by playing solid CF defense, not by hitting.
136 Nick Pratto 1B/OF $0 In 527 MLB PA he has a .290 wOBA despite a .340 BABIP. A 38.7% K rate will do that to you.
137 Corey Julks OF $0 I don’t believe in the bat and I get the sense the Astros don’t either.
138 Alexander Canario OF $0 His 30-grade hit tool showed up in all it’s glory in his brief MLB cup of coffee.
139 Walker Jenkins Util $0 Sky is the limit and we’ll find out if he reaches that limit in like 3 years.
140 Max Clark OF $0 Sky just below Jenkins is the limit and we’ll find out if he reaches that limit in like 3 years.
141 Dominic Canzone OF $0 There was talk the Mariners wanted Canzone to be the strong side of a platoon and then they traded for Luke Raley.
142 Brennen Davis OF $0 Justin Vibber and I used to argue about Davis vs George Valera and we kinda both lost (though I lost less).
143 Leody Taveras OF $0 His biggest fantasy impact may be being talented enough defensively to keep Wyatt Langford in AAA for a bit.
144 Kevin Alcántara OF $0 He’s on my watchlist for later this year or maybe next off-season.
145 Druw Jones OF $0 He’s still a top 100 guy on some lists and he’s still highly interesting.
146 Aaron Hicks OF $0 As good as he was in Baltimore, he still struggled for this format. Want to bet on a healthy, better season?
147 Kala’i Rosario OF $0 The power is fun but he’s not close and needs to improve his hit tool a decent amount.
148 Lazaro Montes OF $0 You can dream on the power but you’ll be asleep for a long, long time.
149 Yanquiel Fernandez OF $0 70 grade power at Coors is fun, but he’s not ready yet and not a good enough prospect that I want to sit on him for too long.
150 Matt Rudick OF $0 Succeeding in AA at 24 doesn’t get me too excited.
151 Jakob Marsee OF $0 First extended look at high minors pitching will be telling.
152 Miguel Andujar 1B/OF $0 He kinda hit just year so maybe he’s interesting?
153 Keston Hiura 1B/OF $0 Are we still talking about Keston Hiura?
154 Kevin Kiermaier OF $0 Kiermaier really wasn’t bad last year. He wasn’t exactly good or useful in this format, though.
155 Rece Hinds OF $0 Big power potential but it’ll be hard to find PA with the Reds.
156 JJ Bleday OF $0 Getting out of Miami didn’t help.
157 Drew Waters OF $0 He’s not turning a corner.
158 Harrison Bader OF $0 The Mets don’t really plan to use him daily in their lineup, right?
159 Will Brennan OF $0 Guardians seemingly chose him over Nolan Jones and Will Benson. They are…uh…higher on this list.
160 Tyler Nevin 1B/3B/OF $0 I can’t really figure out why the Orioles wanted him.
161 Randal Grichuk OF $0 He really struggled away from Coors and now it’s unclear if he is going to have a regular role.
162 Dominic Fletcher OF $0 He needs to find more power and I am not sure where it is coming from (or if he’ll even get a shot to find it against MLB pitching).
163 Matt Vierling 3B/OF $0 He is going to start the year at 3B, it seems, but I doubt he ends it in the lineup.
164 Oscar Gonzalez OF $0 We’ll always have SpongeBob and that one miraculous postseason.
165 Rob Refsnyder OF $0 The track record suggests 2022 was a one time thing
166 Jake McCarthy OF $0 Sometimes it pays to trust what the xwOBA is telling you.
167 Stone Garrett OF $0 Small side platoon bat with a tenuous grasp on a job not set to be ready for Opening Day.
168 Trey Cabbage 1B/OF $0 You want to believe the K-rate can’t stay THIS bad but his player page tells you it can.
169 Jurickson Profar OF $0 He’s now 30 and I think we can say he won’t become the star everyone expected.
170 Pavin Smith 1B/OF $0 We’re stuck in the middle of a bunch of guys you won’t roster and ranking then is really not easy.
171 Robert Hassell III OF $0 He completely fell off the radar but if he starts to inch his way back, remember the pedigree.
172 Zac Veen OF $0 Two atrocious seasons in AA and that is enough for me.
173 Tyler Gentry OF $0 Not a super notable prospect in our world
174 Nathan Martorella 1B/OF $0 At least he’s in an org with like 2 other total OF.
175 Jimmy Herron OF $0 He’s 27 and hasn’t appeared in a FanGraphs article in almost 6 years.
176 Manuel Margot OF $0 Wrong side of the platoon.
177 Estevan Florial OF $0 He apparently made some adjustments late last year so I guess we just hope those stick?
178 Cody Milligan OF $0 No pop and no path to playing time.
179 Victor Robles OF $0 Even if you wanted to try to believe in the talent, lingering back issues aren’t a great thing.
180 Jared Walsh 1B/OF $0 OF eligibility is probably the only reason he’s rostered enough to be on this list.
181 Wil Myers 1B/OF $0 He’s older than I thought and to be honest his career has been better than I thought.
182 Brian Anderson 3B/OF $0 Hasn’t had a productive Ottoneu season in years.
183 Austin Meadows OF $0 I hope he’s doing well.
184 Myles Straw OF $0 He’s not going to hit and if he does it’ll be in a way that does nothing for us here.

 





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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PunkinDonutsmember
3 months ago

I came for the always helpful commentary, I stayed for the Wisdom jokes.