2024 Fantasy Busts – Zimmerman’s Picks
I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.
Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.
For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth.
Changelog
- 2/14/2024: Initial list
Ranking Methodology
- ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
- $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
- ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
- 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).
Busts in the Top 50 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | 3B/SS | – | 25 | $14 |
| 2 | Royce Lewis | MIN | 3B | – | 54 | $15 |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | P | – | 50 | $21 |
If Elly De La Cruz repeats what he did in the season’s second half when he hit .191/.271/.355. The Reds have playoff aspirations and they can’t afford a near .600 OPS hitter.
I can’t trust Royce Lewis to stay healthy. He missed all of the 2021 season. Only played in 46 combined games in 2022. It was 70 games in 2023. In 280 career PA, he’s hitting a game-changing .307/.364/.549, so I can see the demand, but I don’t want to take a chance on 150 PA from my third-round pick.
Of any starter (min 4 GS), Tarik Skubal had the easiest schedule with an opposing win rate of 44% or the equivalent of a 72-90 record. His great 2023 season might have been because of a cream puff schedule.
Busts from 51 to 100 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | P | – | 80 | $14 |
| 6 | Alexis Diaz | CIN | P | – | 74 | $6 |
| 7 | Zach Eflin | TBR | P | – | 83 | $25 |
| 8 | Esteury Ruiz | CIN | P | – | 74 | $6 |
Both Jesus Luzardo and Zach Eflin fall under my Rodon Rule. I need to see two healthy seasons from a pitcher to believe they are now healthy. Now, as I go further in the draft, I’m more willing to take a chance, but with my core players, I want stability. I’m fine missing out on Pablo Lopez’s because I can find safer pitchers going around the same time.
I’m not a fan of how Alexis Diaz’s season ended. His monthly K%-BB% went from 50% to 28% to 11% to 21% to 5% to 0%. I don’t know if he’ll rebound or if the decline will happen again. I’d rather get my Saves from another source.
Esteury Ruiz is probably the most obvious bust candidate out there. If he isn’t on some analyst’s bust list, find a new analyst to follow. First off, Ruiz is a well below-average hitter with a career .640 OPS who may not have a role on the Athletics. A panicked manager adds Ruiz when they have screwed up stolen bases and by adding Ruiz, they have now screwed up their other categories.
Busts from 101 to 150 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Walker Buehler | LAD | P | – | 126 | $9 |
| 10 | Evan Carter | TEX | OF | – | 134 | $6 |
| 11 | Zack Gelof | OAK | 2B | – | 133 | $4 |
While it has been known for months, it’s just starting to hit managers that Walker Buehler will not be starting the season in the Dodgers rotation since the team wants him for the playoffs. On top of that, the team is looking to go with a six-man or six-day rotation.
Last season, the Rangers platooned Evan Carter against lefties and all signs point to them doing it again. I don’t want to have to decide if I want to start one of my early-round picks each day. If I’m going to add a platoon batter for a week, I will drop them the next week.
I’m not sure Zack Gelof is a good overall hitter who rode a .331 to acceptable results last season. I get the desire to prorate out his 14 HR and 14 SB from 300 PA to 600 PA but it could be with a hell level batting average. Another issue that might come up is that so far Gelof has struggled against lefties with a .486 OPS and a .969 OPS against righties.
Busts from 151 to 200 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B/SS/OF | – | 165 | $5 |
| 13 | James Outman | LAD | OF | – | 201 | $1 |
| 14 | Bryan Woo | SEA | P | – | 181 | $5 |
Wrist surgery for Tommy Edman may delay his start to the season thereby cutting into his overall playing time. Or even worse, he comes back before he’s 100% healthy, struggles at the plate, never heals, and develops a ton of bad habits.
James Outman is a strong-side platoon bat who will be a batting-average sink. Ignore Outman and add Joc Pederson 200 picks later.
My issue with Bryan Woo is that he struggles against lefties with a 7% K%-BB% against them and a 26% K%-BB% against righties. I’m not interested in platooning starting pitchers with this high of draft cost.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | 3B/SS | – | 25 | $14 |
| 2 | Royce Lewis | MIN | 3B | – | 54 | $15 |
| 3 | Tarik Skubal | DET | P | – | 50 | $21 |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | P | – | 80 | $14 |
| 6 | Alexis Diaz | CIN | P | – | 74 | $6 |
| 7 | Zach Eflin | TBR | P | – | 83 | $25 |
| 8 | Esteury Ruiz | OAK | OF | – | 74 | $6 |
| 9 | Walker Buehler | LAD | P | – | 126 | $9 |
| 10 | Evan Carter | TEX | OF | – | 134 | $6 |
| 11 | Zack Gelof | OAK | 2B | – | 133 | $4 |
| 12 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B/SS/OF | – | 165 | $5 |
| 13 | James Outman | LAD | OF | – | 201 | $1 |
| 14 | Bryan Woo | SEA | P | – | 181 | $5 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
You broke my heart on Valentine’s Day,I got really excited when I saw that Esteury Ruiz had apparently been traded to the Reds 🙁
and he’s converted to a pitcher too
Hernia surgery for Edman? Not finding any news on this. Did this just happen? There was the arthroscopic surgery on his wrist back in October but haven’t heard anything else.
I’m not sure I get the ELDC blurb. He acknowledged he was gassed, and as a rookie playing that late in the year is clear he didn’t hit that bad because of skill. “if” he hits that line, it would mean he didn’t put in any conditioning work and I haven’t heard anything to bad makeup.
It’d be shocking if he hits that line, but I definitely don’t think a demotion is out of the question a la Jordan Walker last year. If he’s scuffling, the reds would be fine going marte-mclain-india-ces/candelario/steer across the infield so he can work things out. I don’t think that’s the likeliest scenario, but there’s no hitter within miles of his draft cost that has a realistic scenario where they’re demoted (the Alek manoah scenario from last year is not a realistic scenario for anyone)
Honestly as time goes on I am talking myself more into EDLC. He didn’t have horrible contact rates, his problem was swing decisions and consequently GB rates. He struggled initially in AAA with this and then figured it out, and I don’t know if I’m allowed to link to pitcher’s list from here, but there are some happy graphs on his swing decisions:
https://pitcherlist.com/top-300-hitters-for-fantasy-baseball-2024/
This looks more like a guy who was gassed & actively adjusting than a guy who’s going to suck.
Thing with Elly isn’t that he necessarily won’t put up solid fantasy numbers, he probably will. The issue is the cost, at the end of the first round/start of 2nd.
I don’t fancy myself smarter than a computer, and the absolute highest projection has him at 247/311/450. That line is fine, and it comes with 23 hrs and 35 sbs. But it is lower than all other guys in batting average that are near his projected ADP, and he is nowhere near a finished product, so there is a lot of upside. I do think there is risk however that people aren’t accounting for. A team that is incredibly deep isn’t going to keep running a guy out there if he isn’t playing well, no one else going anywhere near that early has any PT risk at all.
EDLC and Royce respectable keepers in a 12 team, Keep 10 forever, no contracts? Deep talented squad ( #1 finish and playoff champ). My other options in lieu of those two aforementioned are Nico and Josh Naylor/CES.
This list is for redraft. As keep 10 forever, they are great gamble.
I would definitely keep them over the other options who don’t have nearly the same upside.
Skubal has a lot of room to regress and still be immensely valuable. Curious why you think the SOS is gonna wash out his skills like you suggest?
Looks to me like Ruiz ADP last 30 Draft Champions is about 130, not 74.
It’s probably not a good thing I have both Lewis and Skubal as keepers in my AL only league but we ball.
How dare you put my boys Skubal and Eflin on this list.
Thanks for the article, some unique and interesting insights. Re: Skubal SoS– playing in the (still weak) AL Central again, isn’t he still going to have a favorable SoS this year? Maybe a bit less so than historically given new rules with fewer division games, but I wonder if his schedule this year will be meaningfully more difficult.
Gelof bats right-handed so I would not be concerned about him being bad in a small sample vs LHP last year. There’s no platoon risk here.
Also it is the A’s.
The Rodon rule: when Rodon is hitting 97 mph, DRAFT him! Eflin will be fine because the Tampa Bay pitching magic will overcome even health. Eflin’s numbers are tight. I’ll take the chance.
The analysis from Skubal is remarkably disappointing. With all the data we have available the blurb about his strength of opponent (judged by something as shallow as winning percentage) made me feel like I was reading an ESPN fantasy preview from 2008.