It’s Bold Predictions time!! Check out the rest of the staff’s predictions here. I’m trying to have some spice here while also having a real path to coming to fruition. I know whenever we do these later in draft season there are inevitably some folks who bummed that it comes out when draft season is mostly done, but I promise you these are incorporating players I’ve already discussed at length this offseason so if you’ve been reading my work or listening to the pod, you’re aware of my affinity for these guys. Without further ado…
Honestly, this is a playing time prediction as the skills are already there for Suzuki. He has been a .284 AVG/21 HR/11 SB guy the last two seasons with 583 and 585 plate appearances, respectively. This year, he pushes 650+ with his first fully healthy season and delivers a .290/30/15 season with 95+ R and RBI.
This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything. I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
For the first time in many, many years, I failed to publish a bold predictions post last year. It was sad. We shall not let that happen again, so it’s time to think bold once again. I usually try to develop my bold predictions based on knowledge I don’t think is being captured by the projections. Or perhaps, it’s not being fully captured. So you won’t catch me boldly predicting that Young Player X, who hit 20 homers last year, will “break out” this season with 30 homers, because, ya know, he’s young and young hitters improve. That’s not boldly predicting, that’s just guessing based on general career trajectories. Alright, enough of the yadda yaddas, let’s get to ’em.
Chad unleashed his Ottoneu-focused bold predictions on us yesterday, now I’ll take a crack at it. I’ve got five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.
1. Cristopher Sánchez is a top-10 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.2 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $12.9
We’ve all seen the hype surrounding Sánchez this spring: he’s throwing harder and has added a cutter to his pitch mix to help him combat right-handed batters. Last year, he compiled 910 points across 181.2 innings, a 5.01 P/IP rate, but his current Depth Charts projection has him pinned at around 4.71 P/IP in 2025. His per inning performance in 2024 ranked 28th among pitchers with at least 100 IP last year, and his total points ranked 13th. His current draft price has him valued somewhere around the 40th starting pitcher and his overall average salary well below that mark (thanks to those lucky enough to roster him as a keeper with plenty of surplus value).
To break into the top-10, he’d have to add about a half point per inning and seriously outperform his projections. He’s already got a solid foundation with an elite groundball rate and corresponding low home run totals, he just needs to add strikeouts to his profile. He shouldn’t have trouble finding those punchouts with his increased velocity and new cutter.
2. Reese Olson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $6.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8
Would you believe that Olson slightly outperformed Sánchez on a rate basis last year with 5.1 P/IP? A shoulder injury cut his season short but he was fantastic while he was on the mound. His current draft price has him valued around the 65th starting pitcher and I’m sure the shoulder issues are a warning sign many can’t ignore.
What I like about Olson is that he has two absolutely killer secondary weapons in his slider and changeup that both return whiff rates north of 40% and also sports a curveball that isn’t far behind at 30%. Sure, his fastballs aren’t that great, but he’s throwing both his four-seamer and sinker about a tick harder this spring — surely a good sign for the health of his shoulder. If he stays healthy, leans on his secondary offerings, and maybe improves his fastballs, good things should be in store for him.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-50 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.0 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.8
With an average draft price of just over a dollar and a roster% of just 54.8%, Eduardo Rodriguez is essentially an afterthought right now. He’s never really been an outstanding contributor in Ottoneu, but he’s only a year removed from posting a 4.9 P/IP season across 152.2 innings in 2023. Injuries absolutely wrecked his season last year but it seems like he’s fully healthy this spring. He’s struck out nearly 40% of the batter’s he’s faced and hasn’t allowed a run in Cactus League play and his velocity is even up slightly. He might not win you any leagues, but the potential for solid contributions at his current price is too good to pass up.
4. Max Meyer scores the most total points among Marlins starting pitchers Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.3
Originally, this bold prediction included Ryan Weathers, but he just injured his elbow and will likely be out for a few months of the season. Womp womp.
I’m sure you’ve heard but Meyer has completely revamped his pitch arsenal this spring; he’s added a sinker and sweeper to his repertoire and his fastball is now sitting at 96 mph. He’s always had a high prospect pedigree but that mostly was thanks to his outstanding slider. This is the first time as a professional he’s had a fully realized repertoire to work with.
The other unspoken aspect to this bold prediction is the status of Sandy Alcantara. For this prediction to work out in my favor, I’m assuming Alcantara is traded this summer and that Meyers continues to pitch well for Miami throughout the entire season.
5. David Festa scores the second most total points among Twins starting pitchers Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.7
I already wrote about Festa as an undervalued draft target a few weeks ago and my position hasn’t changed even though he’s been optioned to Triple-A to start the season. I wrote, “An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season.”
I hedged my bold prediction a little by allowing one of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, or Bailey Ober to outscore Festa. His talent will outshine whatever the Twins are going to get from Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods Richardson and that’ll get him back to the majors pretty quickly. Taking Ryan’s injury questions into account and the slide backwards we saw from López in 2024, I’m betting Festa will emerge as the next great starter in Minnesota.
6. Brent Rooker is a top-3 OF (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $12.1 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $24.3
The first thing that has to happen for this prediction to come true is that Rooker needs to establish OF eligibility. After signing his big five-year extension this offseason and now more than a year removed from his forearm injury, I think the A’s will give him enough time in the outfield to remove his util-only status.
From there, it’s just a matter of him continuing to crush the ball in a minor league ballpark without the oppressive marine layer hampering his batted ball quality. There are 18 outfielders being valued ahead of him — his positional limitations surely have something to do with that — but just five outfielders outscored him on a rate basis last year. He’ll need to leapfrog some absolute superstars in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker for this prediction to come true. I think his continued improvement at the plate combined with his now favorable home ballpark will give him the boost he needs to sit right behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at the position.
7. Anthony Volpe is a top-12 SS (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $9.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $8.9
I’m confident in saying that Volpe is a better real life player than he is a fantasy baseball player, and I’m not actually sold that he’s a good real life player to begin with. The first two seasons of his big league career have been rocky to say the least. A much ballyhooed swing change last year amounted to four added points of wRC+ and a much lower barrel rate than what he accomplished in his rookie campaign. His current draft price has him valued around the 18th shortstop.
When looking at players with significant increases in bat speed this spring, Volpe’s name stands out above the rest. He’s added three ticks to his average exit velocity, more than half the balls he’s put in play have been hard hit, and while that contact hasn’t translated to hits or production, there’s very clearly something cooking underneath the hood. More importantly, 50% of the contact he’s made this spring has gone to his pull side. Swinging hard and pulling the ball in the air is generally a recipe for damage; let’s hope this new approach carries over to the regular season.
8. Maikel Garcia is a top-15 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.9 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.9
In 2023, Garcia posted a .344 BABIP to fuel a .299 wOBA which translated to 4.1 P/G. Last year, his BABIP cratered to .268 despite no meaningful change in his underlying batted ball metrics, and his wOBA fell to .270 and just 3.4 P/G. He hits the ball too hard and runs too well to run a BABIP that low, plus he improved his strikeout rate by six points and hit for a little more power and still couldn’t shake that bad batted ball luck. I’m betting on those improvements carrying over while also enjoying a BABIP rebound leading to a true breakout season.
9. Miguel Vargas scores the most total points among White Sox hitters Ottoneu Average Salary: $1.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.5
This bold prediction might come true simply by process of elimination. The White Sox are going to give Vargas every chance to succeed because he could be a core piece of their rebuild and who’s going to out hit him in their lineup? Luis Robert Jr., the oft injured star who might be traded away this summer? Andrew Benintendi, the light-hitting former star whose reputation far exceeds his actual production? Certainly not Andrew Vaughn, the former college star who hasn’t really put it all together in the big leagues yet. Vargas has really struggled himself — his career batting average across nearly 600 plate appearances is just .175 — but he’s tearing up spring training and has a wide open opportunity to prove he can stick in the big leagues.
For the sake of the prediction, let’s say starting-caliber in Ottoneu is 4.5 P/G; that’s the 15th best 2B and the 45th best OF based on last year’s stats. But really, this prediction all comes down to opportunity. Both Anthony and Campbell are expected to be key contributors for the Red Sox sooner rather than later, but I think neither will be able to break onto the major league roster in a meaningful way this year. Campbell had an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster but fumbled it this spring and Marcelo Mayer might just be ahead of him in the pecking order now, and both those prospects are behind David Hamilton and possibly even Alex Bregman on the 2B depth chart.
Anthony has a little clearer path to playing time, especially if Ceddanne Rafaela struggles, but the Red Sox will need to fit Masataka Yoshida into the outfield picture if Rafael Devers is taking most of the at-bats at designated hitter. The addition of Bregman really mucked up the playing time opportunity for both of these top prospects. If they get a long run of playing time in 2025, things will have gone very poorly for the rest of Boston’s major league roster.
With the season nearly upon us (I refuse to count the Japan Series), it’s time for Bold Predictions. My goal here is for my predictions to be legimately bold – which means my end of season recap will be a bit depressing – but directionally useful – which means you can hopefully use these bold predictions to buy (or sell) on players and strengthen your teams.
As always, my bold predictions will be Ottoneu-focused.
It’s time to go out on limb and make a few BOLD predictions. All of the ranks will be determined by using our auction calculator. All ADP mentioned is from 11 NFBC Main Event drafts. Read the rest of this entry »
I have a spiel I recycle each time I make bold predictions. It goes something like this: bold predictions should be bold but actionable. They should be founded primarily in logic with a little bit of wish-casting. A bold prediction made blindly is worth nothing. It’s all about the process.
Often my success with bold predictions is indicative of my success during the season. I am mostly in keeper/dynasty leagues, and my indifference to fantasy baseball the previous two years proved costly. Still, I had my best season since 2021 and turned a positive return on investment. It’s hard to ask for much more than a positive ROI, except for an even bigger one.
So, let’s see how I did here. I use Razzball Player Rater (12-team) values as my primary source of dollar values because it’s widely known, but I actually prefer my Pitch Leaderboard values (also 12-team; subscriber only). To me the scaling is more realistic and reflective of actual roster construction. To be clear, though, the difference is primarily the scale. Ryan O’Hearn, for example, despite being worth $7 according to my model, is the 131st-best hitter; for Razzball, at $2, he’s 137th-best.
Rogers does not boast an especially unique skillset among catchers: he hits for power and not much else. To Rogers’ credit, however, he hits for a lot of power, definitely for catchers and even relative to non-catchers, too. With his strong pulled fly ball tendencies his path to 20-plus home runs is relatively frictionless.
Carson Kelly, a former 2nd-rounder and top-100 prospect, watched his blue-chip prospectdom expire long ago. Aside from breaking out during 2019’s juiced-ball season and a decent showing in 2021 he has unquestionably disappointed. He figures to fulfill the shallow side of a possible platoon with Rogers, one that would net him the usual one-fourth of the available plate appearances. That leaves perhaps 450 PAs, rather than the 360 PAs he’s projected for and that he accumulated last year, to push Rogers over the top as a catching option.
