October… the quiet time for fantasy baseball. Not for everybody, of course… I see y’all already running Draft Champions and Draft 50s over at the NFBC. I’ll be there next month. For the majority of the community, it’s review time and we here at Fangraphs have been running through our Bold Predictions to see how they went. BPs are always fun because they aren’t meant to be picks that have a super high likelihood of coming true, or else they wouldn’t be all that bold. It’s about to exploring the what could feasibly happen if things really line up but it’s far from the most likely outcome.
So even landing a few feels good when checking the over the slate in the October, let’s see how I did:
Jeez, if you had told me that Suzuki was going to put up 32 HR/103 RBI back in March, I would’ve said this one is a lock. And yet, it’s not only a loss, but a resounding one. He was the 15th OF last year with a 21 HR/73 RBI/74 R/16 SB/.283 AVG season, but fell to 25th because his AVG dropped nearly 40 points to .245 while the SB total tumbled to just 5. It wasn’t a bad season for him, but we’re 0-for-1: .000
Just like it’s important to learn from our mistakes, reviewing bold predictions serves a similar purpose. By their very nature, I shouldn’t be getting many of these predictions right, but it’s a good practice to go back and figure out if there are any lessons to be gleaned from my hubris. And it’s fun to gloat about the ones I got right!
1. Cristopher Sánchez is a top-10 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) ✅ 2025 P/IP: 5.82 (6th overall)
Let’s start things off with a bang! Sánchez followed up his breakout season in 2024 with an even better season a year later. The velocity jump that he showed off during spring training stuck around all season long, though the cutter that he was tinkering with never showed up in the regular season. Evidently he didn’t need that fourth pitch; his changeup and slider were more than good enough on their own. It was those two pitches that convinced me that he could take a big step forward when making this prediction at the start of the season; they were both elite offerings in ‘24 and indicated to me that he had some untapped potential to take a step forward. Sánchez has the perfect profile for Ottoneu: an elite groundball rate and corresponding low home run totals and he just added a ton of strikeouts this year.
Based on the same process that led me to pick Sánchez in 2026, here’s a small spoiler for my 2026 bold predictions: Ryne Nelson’s four-seam fastball was the second most valuable pitch in baseball by total run value and Janson Junk’s sweeper was the seventh most valuable pitch in baseball by RV/100.
2. Reese Olson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) ❌ 2025 P/IP: 4.89 (N/A)
The same process that led me to pick Sánchez above also led me to pick Olson here. Unfortunately, his injury history was a factor I opted to ignore which wound up sinking this prediction. After suffering a shoulder injury in 2024 that led to a two-month stint on the IL, that same issue popped up again this year in late July. He also dealt with a finger injury that cost him a month and a half of the season. Between those two injuries, he only pitched 68.2 innings in ‘25, though they were high quality innings. His changeup and slider — the two pitches that give him such a high ceiling — were just as good this year and give me some hope that he could see a breakout if he could ever stay healthy for a full season.
For what it’s worth, his P/IP would have ranked 26th among starting pitchers with at least 100 IP if he had hit that threshold. The process for making this prediction was solid, but his shoulder just didn’t allow it to hit.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-50 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) ❌ 2025 P/IP: 3.08 (108th overall)
This prediction was banking on a healthy season from Rodriguez. Well, he only had a short three-week stint on the IL with a minor shoulder injury and ended up throwing 154.1 innings this year. Unfortunately, they were extremely poor quality innings. The interplay between his fastball and changeup has deteriorated to the point where both pitches returned negative run value in 2025. At this point in his career, he’s simply too hittable even though his strikeout-to-walk ratio looked okay. He had some good stretches during the season, but the profile is far too volatile to rely on.
4. Max Meyer scores the most total points among Marlins starting pitchers ❌ 2025 Total Points: 210 (7th on Marlins)
Meyer had an exciting spring training after debuting a sinker and sweeper to bring his pitch mix up to five. He actually started the season off with five solid starts and his ERA and FIP were hovering around three through the end of April. May was rough and then he hit the IL with a hip impingement in June and was lost for the season. The two new pitches he introduced to his repertoire weren’t the huge difference-makers that he needed them to be, though his peripherals weren’t terrible across his 12 starts in 2025.
As if Meyer’s struggles and injuries weren’t enough, the Marlins ended up holding onto Sandy Alcantara for the whole season, and no surprise, he wound up leading the team in total points.
5. David Festa scores the second most total points among Twins starting pitchers ❌ 2025 Total Points: 180 (7th on Twins)
The process behind this prediction was sound. I saw a bunch of risk in Minnesota’s starting rotation and figured that Festa would be the beneficiary of some of that risk. Joe Ryan was brilliant and easily led the team in total points, but Pablo López lost three months to a forearm injury, Bailey Ober took a huge step backwards, and Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson were both as mediocre as ever. Where I got things wrong was thinking that Festa could emerge from this mess as a key contributor. His peripherals were solid during his debut season in 2024, but injuries derailed any progress he hoped to make this year. He was diagnosed with a mild form of thoracic outlet syndrome in September and his future as a productive major leaguer is very much up in the air.
6. Brent Rooker is a top-3 OF (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) ❌ 2025 P/G: 5.7 (16th among OF)
Rooker earned OF eligibility by mid-May but instead of repeating his huge breakout from 2024, he merely settled in as a very good hitter with a .349 wOBA this year. That was good enough to return $38.7 in value according to the Auction Calculator, but nowhere good enough to appear in the top 3 OF in Ottoneu, let alone the top 10.
The process was decent here. Rooker crushed the ball at home in Sacramento’s minor league ballpark (.372 wOBA at home), but he took a significant step back on the road (.326 wOBA on the road). The good news is that his plate discipline numbers were better than ever and his batted ball peripherals didn’t take a nose dive.
7. Anthony Volpe is a top-12 SS (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) ❌ 2025 P/G: 3.6 (34th among SS)
I believed a significant jump in bat speed during spring training would help Volpe breakout in his third big league season. The bat speed improvements stuck in the regular season, resulting in career bests in average exit velocity, maxEV, Barrel%, ISO, and SLG. Unfortunately, his BABIP fell back to where it was during his rookie campaign and his plate discipline didn’t improve. His overall wOBA actually fell a point from where it was in 2024, and to make matters worse, his defense absolutely cratered as well.
8. Maikel Garcia is a top-15 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) ✅ 2025 P/G: 5.4 (4th among 2B)
A breakout! Garcia significantly improved his plate discipline last year and his batted ball peripherals painted a much better picture than the .270 wOBA he posted in 2024. I predicted that he’d see a rebound with his batted ball luck to push his wOBA back up to around .300. I didn’t expect him to significantly improve his plate discipline again and start hitting for power by getting the ball off the ground more often. The result was a .347 wOBA, easily the best of his career, and a massive breakout season. What makes Garcia even more valuable is his position flexibility: he’s eligible at four different positions and everything about his improvements this year look sustainable into the future.
9. Miguel Vargas scores the most total points among White Sox hitters ✅ 2025 Total Points: 609 (1st on White Sox)
All Vargas needed was an opportunity for full-time at-bats. The White Sox obliged and he delivered a solid, if up-and-down, season in 2025. He had a huge slump during the three weeks before the All-Star break, and two minor IL stints derailed the second half of his season, but he wound up with a .314 wOBA at the end of it all. That was good enough to eke out Lenyn Sosa for the team lead in total points. His excellent plate discipline metrics and solid batted ball peripherals give him a bit of room to grow as he continues to develop in the big leagues.
10. Neither Roman Anthony (❌) or Kristian Campbell (✅) will be starting-caliber options at their respective positions in 2025 Anthony 2025 P/G: 6.1 (10th among OF) Campbell 2025 P/G: 3.6 (37th among 2B)
I’m giving myself half credit for this one. Campbell made the Red Sox’s Opening Day roster but really struggled in his first taste of the big leagues and found himself optioned back to Triple-A by mid-June. His huge minor league breakout in 2024 was impressive, but it came in just his second professional season. The jump from the high minors to the big leagues is extremely difficult; Campbell had just 85 plate appearances in Triple-A and 255 in Double-A before making his major league debut. The talent is undeniably there, but I think Boston rushed him to the big leagues.
As for Anthony, his talent and track record were a little more well established, but I didn’t think he’d find enough playing time to make an impact in the big leagues in 2025. The Rafael Devers trade opened up an opportunity for Anthony and he ran with it. He only accumulated 303 plate appearances in the big leagues but he absolutely made the most of them.
Now that the 2025 regular season is in the books, it’s time to review my preseason posts! Let’s start with the fan favorite, the 2025 Bold Predictions. This is always a fun one to put together and every time there’s a breakout I feel like I should have seen coming, I always feel regret if that player failed to make it into this article. Let’s see who did make it, because I surely don’t remember!
It’s Bold Predictions time!! Check out the rest of the staff’s predictions here. I’m trying to have some spice here while also having a real path to coming to fruition. I know whenever we do these later in draft season there are inevitably some folks who bummed that it comes out when draft season is mostly done, but I promise you these are incorporating players I’ve already discussed at length this offseason so if you’ve been reading my work or listening to the pod, you’re aware of my affinity for these guys. Without further ado…
Honestly, this is a playing time prediction as the skills are already there for Suzuki. He has been a .284 AVG/21 HR/11 SB guy the last two seasons with 583 and 585 plate appearances, respectively. This year, he pushes 650+ with his first fully healthy season and delivers a .290/30/15 season with 95+ R and RBI.
This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything. I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
For the first time in many, many years, I failed to publish a bold predictions post last year. It was sad. We shall not let that happen again, so it’s time to think bold once again. I usually try to develop my bold predictions based on knowledge I don’t think is being captured by the projections. Or perhaps, it’s not being fully captured. So you won’t catch me boldly predicting that Young Player X, who hit 20 homers last year, will “break out” this season with 30 homers, because, ya know, he’s young and young hitters improve. That’s not boldly predicting, that’s just guessing based on general career trajectories. Alright, enough of the yadda yaddas, let’s get to ’em.
Chad unleashed his Ottoneu-focused bold predictions on us yesterday, now I’ll take a crack at it. I’ve got five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.
1. Cristopher Sánchez is a top-10 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.2 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $12.9
We’ve all seen the hype surrounding Sánchez this spring: he’s throwing harder and has added a cutter to his pitch mix to help him combat right-handed batters. Last year, he compiled 910 points across 181.2 innings, a 5.01 P/IP rate, but his current Depth Charts projection has him pinned at around 4.71 P/IP in 2025. His per inning performance in 2024 ranked 28th among pitchers with at least 100 IP last year, and his total points ranked 13th. His current draft price has him valued somewhere around the 40th starting pitcher and his overall average salary well below that mark (thanks to those lucky enough to roster him as a keeper with plenty of surplus value).
To break into the top-10, he’d have to add about a half point per inning and seriously outperform his projections. He’s already got a solid foundation with an elite groundball rate and corresponding low home run totals, he just needs to add strikeouts to his profile. He shouldn’t have trouble finding those punchouts with his increased velocity and new cutter.
2. Reese Olson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $6.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8
Would you believe that Olson slightly outperformed Sánchez on a rate basis last year with 5.1 P/IP? A shoulder injury cut his season short but he was fantastic while he was on the mound. His current draft price has him valued around the 65th starting pitcher and I’m sure the shoulder issues are a warning sign many can’t ignore.
What I like about Olson is that he has two absolutely killer secondary weapons in his slider and changeup that both return whiff rates north of 40% and also sports a curveball that isn’t far behind at 30%. Sure, his fastballs aren’t that great, but he’s throwing both his four-seamer and sinker about a tick harder this spring — surely a good sign for the health of his shoulder. If he stays healthy, leans on his secondary offerings, and maybe improves his fastballs, good things should be in store for him.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-50 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.0 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.8
With an average draft price of just over a dollar and a roster% of just 54.8%, Eduardo Rodriguez is essentially an afterthought right now. He’s never really been an outstanding contributor in Ottoneu, but he’s only a year removed from posting a 4.9 P/IP season across 152.2 innings in 2023. Injuries absolutely wrecked his season last year but it seems like he’s fully healthy this spring. He’s struck out nearly 40% of the batter’s he’s faced and hasn’t allowed a run in Cactus League play and his velocity is even up slightly. He might not win you any leagues, but the potential for solid contributions at his current price is too good to pass up.
4. Max Meyer scores the most total points among Marlins starting pitchers Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.3
Originally, this bold prediction included Ryan Weathers, but he just injured his elbow and will likely be out for a few months of the season. Womp womp.
I’m sure you’ve heard but Meyer has completely revamped his pitch arsenal this spring; he’s added a sinker and sweeper to his repertoire and his fastball is now sitting at 96 mph. He’s always had a high prospect pedigree but that mostly was thanks to his outstanding slider. This is the first time as a professional he’s had a fully realized repertoire to work with.
The other unspoken aspect to this bold prediction is the status of Sandy Alcantara. For this prediction to work out in my favor, I’m assuming Alcantara is traded this summer and that Meyers continues to pitch well for Miami throughout the entire season.
5. David Festa scores the second most total points among Twins starting pitchers Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.7
I already wrote about Festa as an undervalued draft target a few weeks ago and my position hasn’t changed even though he’s been optioned to Triple-A to start the season. I wrote, “An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season.”
I hedged my bold prediction a little by allowing one of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, or Bailey Ober to outscore Festa. His talent will outshine whatever the Twins are going to get from Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods Richardson and that’ll get him back to the majors pretty quickly. Taking Ryan’s injury questions into account and the slide backwards we saw from López in 2024, I’m betting Festa will emerge as the next great starter in Minnesota.
6. Brent Rooker is a top-3 OF (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $12.1 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $24.3
The first thing that has to happen for this prediction to come true is that Rooker needs to establish OF eligibility. After signing his big five-year extension this offseason and now more than a year removed from his forearm injury, I think the A’s will give him enough time in the outfield to remove his util-only status.
From there, it’s just a matter of him continuing to crush the ball in a minor league ballpark without the oppressive marine layer hampering his batted ball quality. There are 18 outfielders being valued ahead of him — his positional limitations surely have something to do with that — but just five outfielders outscored him on a rate basis last year. He’ll need to leapfrog some absolute superstars in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker for this prediction to come true. I think his continued improvement at the plate combined with his now favorable home ballpark will give him the boost he needs to sit right behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at the position.
7. Anthony Volpe is a top-12 SS (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $9.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $8.9
I’m confident in saying that Volpe is a better real life player than he is a fantasy baseball player, and I’m not actually sold that he’s a good real life player to begin with. The first two seasons of his big league career have been rocky to say the least. A much ballyhooed swing change last year amounted to four added points of wRC+ and a much lower barrel rate than what he accomplished in his rookie campaign. His current draft price has him valued around the 18th shortstop.
When looking at players with significant increases in bat speed this spring, Volpe’s name stands out above the rest. He’s added three ticks to his average exit velocity, more than half the balls he’s put in play have been hard hit, and while that contact hasn’t translated to hits or production, there’s very clearly something cooking underneath the hood. More importantly, 50% of the contact he’s made this spring has gone to his pull side. Swinging hard and pulling the ball in the air is generally a recipe for damage; let’s hope this new approach carries over to the regular season.
8. Maikel Garcia is a top-15 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.9 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.9
In 2023, Garcia posted a .344 BABIP to fuel a .299 wOBA which translated to 4.1 P/G. Last year, his BABIP cratered to .268 despite no meaningful change in his underlying batted ball metrics, and his wOBA fell to .270 and just 3.4 P/G. He hits the ball too hard and runs too well to run a BABIP that low, plus he improved his strikeout rate by six points and hit for a little more power and still couldn’t shake that bad batted ball luck. I’m betting on those improvements carrying over while also enjoying a BABIP rebound leading to a true breakout season.
9. Miguel Vargas scores the most total points among White Sox hitters Ottoneu Average Salary: $1.6 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.5
This bold prediction might come true simply by process of elimination. The White Sox are going to give Vargas every chance to succeed because he could be a core piece of their rebuild and who’s going to out hit him in their lineup? Luis Robert Jr., the oft injured star who might be traded away this summer? Andrew Benintendi, the light-hitting former star whose reputation far exceeds his actual production? Certainly not Andrew Vaughn, the former college star who hasn’t really put it all together in the big leagues yet. Vargas has really struggled himself — his career batting average across nearly 600 plate appearances is just .175 — but he’s tearing up spring training and has a wide open opportunity to prove he can stick in the big leagues.
For the sake of the prediction, let’s say starting-caliber in Ottoneu is 4.5 P/G; that’s the 15th best 2B and the 45th best OF based on last year’s stats. But really, this prediction all comes down to opportunity. Both Anthony and Campbell are expected to be key contributors for the Red Sox sooner rather than later, but I think neither will be able to break onto the major league roster in a meaningful way this year. Campbell had an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster but fumbled it this spring and Marcelo Mayer might just be ahead of him in the pecking order now, and both those prospects are behind David Hamilton and possibly even Alex Bregman on the 2B depth chart.
Anthony has a little clearer path to playing time, especially if Ceddanne Rafaela struggles, but the Red Sox will need to fit Masataka Yoshida into the outfield picture if Rafael Devers is taking most of the at-bats at designated hitter. The addition of Bregman really mucked up the playing time opportunity for both of these top prospects. If they get a long run of playing time in 2025, things will have gone very poorly for the rest of Boston’s major league roster.
With the season nearly upon us (I refuse to count the Japan Series), it’s time for Bold Predictions. My goal here is for my predictions to be legimately bold – which means my end of season recap will be a bit depressing – but directionally useful – which means you can hopefully use these bold predictions to buy (or sell) on players and strengthen your teams.
As always, my bold predictions will be Ottoneu-focused.
