Starting Pitcher Chart – April 24th, 2024
Daily SP Chart archive
I got on that yardwork grind today after a good bout of rain the last week or so and frankly, it took me out a bit so I’m crashing! I’ve got my chat at 1pm CT tomorrow, though, so feel free to come out and ask any questions you might have and I’ll have a proper commentary bit in this space tomorrow night.
| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK | NOTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Ryan | MIN v CHW | x | x | x | 22 | 3.57 | 1.06 | 29% | 30th | Could the White Sox somehow get negative runs here? |
| 2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL at PIT | x | x | x | 23 | 1.90 | 0.76 | 32% | 23rd | |
| 3 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI at STL | x | x | x | 6 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 14% | 24th | Snell’s struggles feel worse when juxtaposed against Monty looking amazing in his debut even though the 2 are wholly unrelated |
| 4 | Reynaldo López | ATL v MIA | x | x | x | 18 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 18% | 25th | ReyLo isn’t as good as these shiny ratios obviously, but he doesn’t need to be to remain a viable option in most formats |
| 5 | Bryce Miller | SEA at TEX | x | x | x | 24 | 1.85 | 0.82 | 18% | 6th | Tinyyyy sample but love the 460 pt. vL OPS improvement down to just .457 thanks in part to his new splitty |
| 6 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY v OAK | x | x | x | 20 | 3.15 | 1.55 | 17% | 29th | |
| 7 | Nick Lodolo | CIN v PHI | x | x | x | 12 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 33% | 6th | Not as auto-start as Greene given the lower price point, but similar vibes where you’re in for the ride even in the tough home starts |
| 8 | Garrett Crochet | CHW at MIN | x | x | x | 25 | 5.61 | 1.01 | 27% | 27th | B2B duds though CIN/PHI are solid lineups… needs to rebound here or we really tighten up our usage thresholds |
| 9 | Blake Snell | SFG v NYM | x | x | x | 11 | 11.57 | 1.97 | 12% | 7th | I’m staying the course as he works through the kinks |
| 10 | Jack Flaherty | DET at TBR | x | x | x | 24 | 4.44 | 1.11 | 25% | 22nd | Brilliant skills (25% K-BB) have been undercut by a 1.5 HR9 and 66% LOB rate, I’m hanging on! |
| 11 | Tyler Alexander | TBR v DET | x | x | 20 | 4.79 | 1.35 | 11% | 26th | Streamable everywhere w/this matchup but hasn’t risen to all formats must-start status yet thus just 2-x’s | |
| 12 | Spencer Turnbull | PHI at CIN | x | x | 22 | 1.23 | 0.77 | 18% | 17th | Pitching v well and I’m on board… just saying you don’t have to start him in Cincy | |
| 13 | Sean Manaea | NYM at SFG | x | x | 19 | 4.12 | 1.37 | 13% | 16th | Revenge game!! | |
| 14 | Jon Gray | TEX v SEA | x | x | 20 | 3.15 | 1.40 | 17% | 18th | Has a 1.10 ERA & WHIP, 23 Ks, and just 2 ER (5 total R) in 16.3 IP since his rough season debut v. CHC | |
| 15 | Dean Kremer | BAL at LAA | x | 22 | 4.91 | 1.14 | 13% | 24th | Hasn’t been able to carryover the ST spike in swinging strike rate w/a paltry 8% mark so far, but has been solid 3 of 4 starts thus far | ||
| 16 | Jameson Taillon | CHC v HOU | x | 5 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 22% | 8th | I’ll reiterate that HOU’s struggles aren’t the lineup so we’re just not throwing everyone v. them; pickup Jamo for the at NYM/v. MIL 2-step next wk, though | ||
| 17 | Alec Marsh | KCR v TOR | x | 22 | 3.22 | 1.03 | 12% | 16th | Can he thwart a non-Orioles club? 8.7 IP/1 ER in 2 starts v. BAL; 9.7 IP/7 ER v. CHW & NYM | ||
| 18 | Tyler Anderson | LAA v BAL | x | 25 | 1.42 | 0.95 | 5% | 9th | Ugly 5% K-BB might scare you… counterpoint: 13% SwStr says the 14% K rate will rise and give more credence to those sparkly ratios so he’s firmly on the mid- and deep-lg radar | ||
| 19 | Yariel Rodriguez | TOR at KCR | x | 7 | 2.35 | 1.30 | 31% | 9th | Could be his last start befor shifting to the pen, buuuttt that could fuel some W potential if he’s getting 2-4 IP in the middle of games! | ||
| 20 | Landon Knack | LAD at WSN | x | 5 | 3.60 | 1.00 | 16% | 5th | Not averse to chasing a cheap W, just know that it’s not risk-free w/WSN hitting well vR early on | ||
| 21 | Kyle Gibson | STL v ARI | x | 25 | 5.04 | 1.20 | 4% | 19th | Standard issue risky stream for deeper leagues, but maybe scoop & stash for at DET next wk | ||
| 22 | Joe Boyle | OAK at NYY | 18 | 7.23 | 1.71 | 7% | 10th | His Game Scores (50 avg; >55 great; <40 terrible) perfectly encapsulate his volatility range: 12, 66, 57, 33 | |||
| 23 | Josh Fleming | PIT v MIL | 9 | 1.93 | 1.18 | 8% | 21st | Solid arm who might develop some viability if he sticks in the rotation, but pretty risky in a random 1-off | |||
| 24 | Jake Irvin | WSN v LAD | 23 | 3.13 | 1.00 | 16% | 3rd | I know Swervin’ Jake Irvin cooked LAD last time out but I just can’t run it back… could be down for that at MIA/v. TOR next wk, though! | |||
| 25 | Cooper Criswell | BOS at CLE | 6 | 4.26 | 1.58 | 7% | 13th | ||||
| 26 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU at CHC | 7 | 11.57 | 2.29 | 8% | 12th | ||||
| 27 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE v BOS | 18 | 3.44 | 1.53 | 5% | 14th | ||||
| 28 | Matt Waldron | SDP at COL | 19 | 4.74 | 1.53 | 13% | 21st | I’m barely interested in trusting a knuckler in ideal settings, let alone Coors Field… even against this rough COL lineup | |||
| 29 | Kyle Tyler | MIA at ATL | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 1st | ||||
| 30 | Ty Blach | COL v SDP | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 13th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Paul you are tempting the baseball gods with that Ryan blurb. I have Ryan in an important league and hoping to not be collateral damage from your hubris!
Montgomery has had good results so far but a .167 BABIP/100% LOB/14% K rate point to him being who he always has been — perfectly adequate.
Oh I agree re: Monty, he’s not on some new level, but who he is, is v good IMO!
And you’re probably right re: Ryan…. I need to be careful!
Yeah, the White Sox got five runs off the Twins yesterday. It’s a much-needed reminder that anyone can beat anyone in this league. Three off Pablo Lopez, who was first-ranked. Taking Fedde produced better value!
Baseball, man. There’s nothing that makes less sense sometimes.
Of course, every team wins 60. Process over results, though. I’ll start virtually anyone v. CWS
Yep. Just serves as a cautionary tale, and a reminder that process sometimes needs adjustments. It’s not so different from actually playing baseball, at least mentally.
I’m not sure I follow with respect to this example. There is no universe where you’d sit Lopez v. CWS… he caught a bad one. No biggie. You start everyone viable v. CWS and yes over the course of 162, there will be some duds. Always gotta make sure your process is the best it can be, but I don’t think CWS spiking a 5-bomb alters our process going forward.
Not so much sitting him as having him at the top of the slate. He might have had the easiest matchup, but he wasn’t the safest option imo. Webb, Houck, and Gilbert all are superior pitchers overall, and Lopez has been lesser this season as hitters have started to punish his poor fastball location. He’s always had an issue with that, but his breaking pitches and changeup have made up the difference. Not so much this year, but he’s also always underperformed his advanced metrics. At this point, it’s too much of a pattern to ignore.
Fedde, I faded for similar reasons as you did, but I think both of us underrated him and will continue to if he isn’t moved up slightly. He arguably had the second-easiest matchup, and the adjustments from Korea were there. There’s a bit of recency bias there, but you do have to factor in current performance, it’s just a lesser consideration than underlying talent.
With due respect, that’s over-analysis with the extreme benefit of hindsight. First off, I don’t get too hung up on the actual slotting on the 3-x guys. They’re auto-starts in all formats. Yes there is some DFS potential to consider, but I didn’t see anyone suggesting Lopez had any real risk here.
I identified the solid matchup for Fedde, but until he reigns in the HRs consistently, he will be a pure streamer with major downside. Multi-HR games are KILLERS. He was excellent yesterday so it’s easy to say we should’ve been on it, but I think the process for Lopez & Fedde was sound and these outings don’t alter my outlook on them at all
Fair, that makes more sense. I disagree with some of the reasoning, but given that we’re different people, that’s bound to happen. Thanks for explaining things 🙂
I’m more of a DFS guy, so that also probably played into things a little as well. I basically have to overrate recency compared to more long-term formats.
Love the discussions! Keep ’em comin’, I’m always down to talk through things in the comments and hear y’all’s thoughts