Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.
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Let’s get back to reviewing the preseason Pod Projection writeups I shared. Today, I’ll review Ketel Marte, who enjoyed a breakout 2019, disappointed during the short 2020 season, and then rebounded nicely in 2021 during an injury plagued year. Refresh your memory by rereading my original breakdown.
Yesterday, I chose to embarrass myself by reviewing my list of home run upside guys, or those my Pod Projections were more bullish on than Steamer. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the post yet — I lost every battle. Given that the league HR/FB rate was at its lowest since 2015, I should have a better chance of tallying up some wins on the home run downside list. Perhaps I’ll just embarrass myself even further. Let’s find out.
Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!
Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.
Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.
The 2022 Pod Projections are now available and include over 550 player forecasts! As usual in my Pod Projection posts, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
Yesterday, I compared my starting pitcher ERA Pod Projections to Steamer and discussed what was driving the gap. Let’s now review the pitchers I’m projecting for a worse ERA than Steamer. Remember in yesterday’s article I mentioned that my ERA projections are lower in aggregate, so the gaps are much smaller here. The important part is the ERA relative to the projection set, so these are larger differences than the absolute gaps would indicate.
After comparing my Pod Projections to Steamer for bother home runs and stolen bases, let’s now flip over to starting pitchers. This comparison is far easier, as it’s a ratio stat and therefore won’t need to be converted to the same PA scale. So let’s find out which starting pitchers I am forecasting for an ERA that is most below what Steamer is forecasting.