Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: April 25th, 2024
Welcome to another automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:
- Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
- MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
- Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews
The data for this article reflects games played through April 24th and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity.
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent decrease | Second recent decrease | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Puk | 94.3 | 93.4 | 91.7 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -1.3 |
| Dean Kremer | 94.4 | 94.2 | 92.6 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.9 |
| Martín Pérez | 92.2 | 91.1 | 90.6 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| Shawn Armstrong | 94.6 | 93.3 | 93.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| Spencer Turnbull | 92.2 | 91.7 | 90.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Luis Castillo | 95.4 | 95.0 | 94.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
**>=-.60 Average Change
A.J. Puk’s velocity decrease was likely a result of shoulder fatigue and he remains on the IL. He is expected back in the first week of May and is reportedly going to rejoin the bullpen. Dean Kremer’s most recent start showcased the most drop in velocity, but he also recorded 10 strikeouts against the Angels in that start. It’s something to keep an eye on as Kremer threw a career-high 172.2 innings in 2023.
After going eight innings against the Tigers on April 9th, Martín Pérez went 5.2 innings against the Mets in his next start and then only lasted four innings against the Red Sox in his last start. Shawn Armstrong appeared twice in the season so far as an opener and has not gone more than two innings in any game.
Spencer Turnbull has a 1.33 ERA (3.16 xERA) along with an incredibly low .175 BABIP. He does have a career-high 28.3% K%. He’s dropped the usage of nearly all his pitches, increasing his usage of only the curveball. That pitch has a 64.7% Whiff% on Statcast. Lastly, Luis Castillo has gone five, six, seven innings deep in his last three starts. It’s possible the difference in innings and pitch count across starts correlates with the slight velocity decrease, but there’s also a lot going on in his usage chart. He continues to throw his four-seamer more often while relying on the changeup and sinker less and less.
—
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 89.9 | 91.9 | 92.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Adrian Houser | 92.1 | 93.2 | 94.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Zack Wheeler | 93.9 | 95.4 | 95.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Sean Manaea | 90.9 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Patrick Corbin | 90.6 | 91.8 | 91.9 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Joe Ryan | 93.0 | 93.7 | 94.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 95.7 | 96.6 | 96.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Garrett Crochet | 95.6 | 95.7 | 96.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Lance Lynn | 91.3 | 92.4 | 92.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
**>=.60 Average Change
As of this writing, Nestor Cortes’ Pitch Info (vFA) is exactly the same (91.7 MPH) as it was in all of 2022 and 2023. Adrian Houser’s fastball usage is down and his changeup usage is up. Do I need to write about Zack Wheeler? His velocity was concerning to start the season but it looks like he’s working his way back to his average velocity.
Sean Manaea had everyone talking in the 2023 preseason as his fastball velocity was significantly up. He ended the year with a career-high average fastball (Pitch Info) of 93.6 MPH. He’s working his way back up to that mark, but just had an outing against the Mets where he walked four batters and only lasted 4.2 innings. Patrick Corbin is another starter who keeps inching closer to his career-average velocity in the young season.
Joe Ryan’s pitch usage looks a little different in 2024. His fastball usage is down slightly and he’s begun throwing his sweeper and slider more often. We’ll see how it all shakes out. Grayson Rodriguez averaged (Pitch Info) 97.4 MPH on his fastball last season and he, like so many others, continues to get stretched out and closer to that mark.
Garrett Crochet being used as a starter looks like Garrett Crochet as a reliever from a pitch usage standpoint, besides the fact that he added a cutter. It will be interesting to see how operating as a starter impacts his ability to maintain that high velocity. Lastly, Lance Lynn is getting closer to his career-average 93.5 MPH fastball, though we should expect him to sit just below that as he pitches in his age-36 season.