Third Base 2024 Fantasy Rankings

We could debate over and over who the best third baseman is going into the 2024 season. But, the difference between these four players is fairly negligible in the long run. Rafael Devers simply has more of everything from Steamer’s standpoint; more home runs, more runs, more RBI, and more batting average. He can’t borrow any of José Ramírez’s stolen bases, and it’s safe to bet that J-Ram will continue to steal 20+, but stolen bases are not as difficult to find as they once were.

So now, whose better? Austin Riley or Manny Machado? As it happens, Steamer has a similar comparison for the two, with Riley winning every category except stolen bases. Riley wins. Plus, Machado has a lot of injury risk associated with his elbow headed into 2024. Rotowire expects him back to start the season, but there is no certainty there. Even if he were to lose a few weeks of the season, Machado is still top-tier. He’s had plenty of injuries in the past, yet he hasn’t recorded a sub-600 plate appearance season since 2014 (excluding 2020). Draft floor early and you won’t regret it.

The auction calculator’s raw rankings place Yandy Díaz ahead of Royce Lewis ahead of Nolan Arenado. But a simple adjustment ($0.40) brought Arendado back to the top stud next door. I’d rather bet on Arenado’s home run projection and power than Diaz’s. I also value veteran experience when it comes to evaluating projections. You may consider 2023 a down year for Arenado, but he still slashed .266/.315/.459 with 26 home runs. Even if some skills are declining, I think there are a few more years of Arenado being Arenado.

Why is Steamer low on Gunnar Henderson’s plate appearances? This dude is proven out and he will be a centerpiece of the Baltimore offense in 2024. I like him over Royce Lewis because Gunnar has a larger sample to make projections from and significantly less injury risk.

In truth, Steamer is too high on Lewis for my taste. I moved him down from his original auction calculator rank (6th). Projections make him look better than Alex Bregman and Gunnar Henderson in fewer games. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that the shiny new toy doesn’t compare to ol’ tried and true. However, Lewis has showcased an incredible hit tool at every level, and with good health, I don’t doubt he could come close to his lofty projections.

Lastly, Bregman’s power has never not been there, he mashes. His playing time, power consistency and run projections almost want me to place him above Lewis. Almost. The “best shape of my life” meme-card was played by Bregman when he reported to camp and it was slammed down on the card table with authority. In an interview with MLB, Bregman reported consistently working on bat speed, adding more exit velocity to his batted balls.

Even if you took away a few of Yandy Díaz’s projected homers, his batting average projects to be a team stabilizer. 2023’s 22 homers was a mark we always knew he could reach, but are there enough indicators to project a repeat? His launch angle didn’t necessarily change for the better, but he barreled the ball more often and hit it hard more often. Sadly, his ground ball rate remained high, which is a big part of the reason all of his expected stats were lower than his actuals. Just below 20 home runs and an above-average batting average is what we should expect.

Elly De La Cruz’s ceiling is too high not to bump him way above where the auction calculator places him. Yet, he could struggle enough to not even be in the majors at times in 2024, as many pundits have predicted in the past few months. He struggled from August on where he hit .200, struck out over 30% of the time, and produced a wRC+ of 70. It’s a big risk/reward type of pick, even if he is one of the most exciting reward picks in the draft.

Josh Jung’s calf injury is concerning and it has taken him down in the preseason rankings. It seems that things are trending in the right direction as of this writing (3/6/24), but he’s not back to 100 percent just yet. He’s not dropping by much, but Jung’s spring injury is enough to take him out of the top 10.

Originally I thought Ha-Seong Kim could be a quasi-sleeper but he has just been going up and up and up in ADP this draft season. With news out of San Diego https://theathletic.com/5276543/2024/02/15/ha-seong-kim-trade-unlikely-padres/ that Kim will likely be staying with the Padres and playing shortstop, his outlook has actually improved. RosterResource thinks he’ll bat leadoff in a potent Padres lineup and that is a big boost to his stock. As draft season has gone on, his ADP has been steady. It’s hard to pass up on the opportunity for stolen bases matched with the type of production he is expected to produce. Kim jumps up and has the potential to keep rising.

I’m probably higher on Alec Bohm than most, but he has been a top 15 3B the past two seasons according to the auction calculators year to date settings. Don’t expect his power to suddenly take a step forward, but do expect a reliable batting average in a productive lineup.

Compare Ke’Bryan Hayes and Elly’s raw category projections, and they don’t look all that different. Hayes’ playing time seems like more of a lock and his batting average beats out Elly’s, but Elly could easily destroy his projections. That’s a gamble however and I like Hayes as a potential breakout in 2024. He has consistently hit the ball harder each season, he lowered his K% between 2022 and 2023 and his Zone-Contact% was excellent in 2024. In addition, his batted ball distribution (LD%/GB%/FB%) has been trending in the right direction.

Christopher Morel’s playing time is somewhat of a concern as he doesn’t seem to have an everyday defensive position. Recent news suggests the Cubs think Morel’s bat is too good to not be in the lineup and that they’ll stick him at DH if they have to. Yet that only further indicates that he does not have a defensive home and the DH spot in the lineup rarely belongs to only one player unless your name is Ohtani. If he goes on too many strikeout benders without hitting a few over the fence, I could see him losing playing time and Steamer has him with the lowest expected PA total in this group except De La Cruz. He’s a gamble with a lot of HR and SB upside.

Matt Chapman takes a slight step up in the rankings now that he is signed to a Giants. Look no further than Jay Jaffe’s write-up on Chapman to San Franciso for a good understanding of what went wrong for Chapman in 2023. However, it’s somewhat concerning that Chapman will play his home games in a park that is not friendly to right-handed power. Still, those two things may offset each other and if Chapman can stay healthy and continue to produce quality contact, good things will happen.

Believe in Jake Burger’s 2023 breakout. 34 home runs certainly breaks his career best and he figured out how to strike less than 30% of the time. He could be batting fourth with a bunch of good hitters in front of him in Miami.

Isaac Paredes’ value goes up in leagues that reward slugging, so his standard 5×5 is hurt somewhat by a low BA and zero SB potential. But he could easily break the 30 HR mark in 2024.

Another single-category player in this tier is Ryan McMahon. He’s gone above the 20 mark in four of his last five seasons in Colorado and the season he missed it was 2020. As long as he can put up his fourth season in a row of over 150 games, his projection should be believable.

Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension brought clarity to Reds infield situation. While it seemed clear that Jeimer Candelario was to be an everyday player in 2024, there’s one less player nipping at his heels. Projected for somewhere around 20 home runs, Candelario is projected by Roster Resource to hit fourth in a potent Reds offense.

Spencer Steer rocketed to 665 plate appearances after only playing 28 major league games in 2022. He only started 47 out of 156 games at the 3B position, but that’s enough to qualify for next season in most formats. The positional flexibility that he adds to rosters only increases his value. Take that durability, tack on a possible 20 home runs with batting average upside, and you have a semi-sleeper on your hands. That’s what Steer is and he leads this tier but only after a big adjustment on where the raw auction calculator values place him.

If your roster is constructed for power already, Luis Rengifo is your man. All reports on the utility man’s offseason bicep surgery point to a healthy return in spring training. His flexible positional eligibility, ability to get on base, and the expectation (Steamer) that he’ll add power are all intriguing. Yet, his playing time projection is unexpectedly low. Still a valuable fantasy player, Rengifo has dropped in my rankings after seeing the difference between Steamer and ATC’s projections.

Eugenio Suárez is a power hitter who may have been somewhat unlucky in 2023. Like McMahon, he’s very likely to hit at least 20 bombs, but he’s a one-category player.

Did Jorge Polanco hit his peak in 2021? Steamer is way high on his plate appearance projection at 629 even though he hasn’t gone anywhere near that mark since 2021’s 644 PAs. There’s an upside for a rebound considering he’s an accumulator who really can hit for power and average, but injuries have been an issue in the last two seasons. He sneaks into 3B eligibility having played 15 games there in 2023, that’s just 10 over our five-game minimum for rankings.

A big adjustment to Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s raw auction calculator was needed, but you just can’t ignore the debut he had in 2023, slashing .270/.328/.477 in 241 plate appearances. This dude has power. He’ll strike out a lot, won’t walk much, and won’t steal bases, but everything else should play. Beware of a playing time issue as the Reds have a crowded infield, but CES’s bat should be enough to get a spot in the lineup with regularity.

Batting leadoff in front of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto will never be a bad thing. DJ LeMahahieu has been the talk of Yankees camp this spring and having played through a few seasons fighting through a nagging injury, the word is that LeMahieu is healthy, feeling good, and hitting like he did when he first headed to New York. Certainly, all spring news needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but if the news relates to the good health of a player who has always had the skills, it should be taken a little more seriously. DJ up!

Max Muncy tied his career-high 36 home runs in 2023, but he did it by selling out for power, hitting only .212. While he got somewhat unlucky (.344 wOBA, .365xwOBA), he’s showing a lot of skills decline with age including increased GB%, increased O-Swing%, and a decreased Z-Contact%. He could hit another 30 bombs no problem. He may be in a platoon at this point so he’s best rostered not as your everyday 3B.

Another player who could very well end up in a platoon is Nolan Gorman. He’ll need to figure out how to stop striking out, running above 30% in both big league seasons, but if he can’t, he’ll have to hit for more power.

Wilmer Flores just seems like a projection systems dream. There are 11 seasons of big league data to work with and that produces confidence that he will be Wilmer Flores in 2024.

Willi Castro is the biggest mover of all in these rankings. He needed a huge value adjustment from the raw auction calculator value to enter this tier. While Castro’s expected stats fall well below his actuals, he did showcase skills changes that make you want to believe there’s room for even more improvement. His slash line from 2021 to 2023 has steadily improved along with a changed batted ball distribution, improved ability to hit the fastball, decreased O-Swing%, and increased Contact%. I’m certainly out on a ledge here, but the view is nice. Won’t you join me?

An arm injury cost Brendan Donovan a season that many thought would be a big breakout in 2023. Reportedly on track to begin spring training after offseason arm surgery, Donovan could be a sleeper pick with a solid batting average floor and power upside. Beware of the platoon tag currently on Roster Resource, as he struggled against lefties in 2023.

Yoán Moncada saw a slight slash line resurgence in 2023 (.260/.305/.425) and with the top of the White Sox order still looking productive, he may be able to repeat 2023’s numbers. He hasn’t hit more than 15 home runs since 2019 when he hit his career high 25. It’s reasonable to expect Moncada may just find a happy medium between 2022 and 2023’s version of himself.

Now that Justin Turner has been signed in Toronto does it affect his ranking? Well, our park factors show that the move to a new home park will help slightly with home runs, but will hurt base hits as he can no longer benefit from smacking the ball against the green monster. The overall, basic (5yr) park factors, pin this as a downgrade. Turner has shown declining power metrics (Barrel%, HardHit%, xwOBA) in his last three or four seasons, but his 2024 Z-Contact% stayed above average and he pulled the ball in the air above average as well, matching his batted ball profile to the park he played in. All of this indicates that Justin Turner is a veteran hitter who can still adjust and be fantasy relevant. He is a good fit with “The Predictables”.

The Dodgers are an offensive juggernaut and Chris Taylor will get plenty of opportunities to knock in runs. He is a late pick who could easily achieve 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He’s a great addition to any team’s bench.

Maikel Garcia crept up on a few of my teams at the end of the season last season because he was a hit machine in August when he hit .290. He’s showcased rosterable promise and could be a sneaky late roster addition if your roster is huge and you need help in the batting average category. He’s not a one-category player due to his stolen base projection.

Either Brett Baty or Mark Vientos had to make this list and I chose Baty. They look like the same player from a statistical standpoint and both need to make improvements to be fantasy-relevant. But, they’re young and there’s certainly room to grow. Pay close attention to the 3B situation in NY during spring training. There’s also a world in which they act as a platoon.

Welcome to the ranks Michael Busch after being traded to the Cubs and getting a major boost in his playing time projection. There’s a chance that Busch and Patrick Wisdom end up in a platoon situation at 1B, where it has been suggested Busch may play. He’s likely 3B eligible in most leagues due to his 13 games at the position in 2023. Keep an eye on his development in the Spring, but I think his playing time and power potential have him atop this tier.

Jordan Westburg seems to have a lineup spot, though it may be the nine spot. He’s a solid defender and with Adam Frazier, the O’s need to start rolling out their young talent with more regularity. His .260 average in 223 plate appearances last season (2023) stood up to his profile. Known for being a patient hitter, he may need to adjust his approach to major-league hitting. He doesn’t have any one category that stands out, but he has the ability to bump up your batting average and add a handful of steals. OBP upside with an 88th percentile statcast sprint speed could lead to overperforming on the base paths.

Traded to the Brewers from the Baltimore Orioles, Ortiz has a lot of potential to jump straight into an everyday infield role. He is better known for his defensive skill, but his hit tool gives him a batting average bump. If he can get on base, he may steal 10 bags, but there’s a that has to happen first. Can he adjust to major league pitching? Will the Brewers give him an everyday role? There are more questions than answers but he’s certainly worth a look in keeper and certainly dynasty leagues.

I’m not sure teams sign a young player to a big extension just to keep them down in the minor leagues. There’s simply no more room in the minor leagues for Colt Keith. He slugged over .500 across three levels from 2022 to 2023. He seems ready to make his debut, yet there is that pesky platoon tag on Detroit’s RosterResource page. It may be a full year of growing pains and adjustments but for the fantasy leaguers who love that kind of thing, Keith is your man.

Elehuris Montero was not on my radar when these rankings were first published. But, ATC projections placed the 25-year-old within the top 40 and I was forced to pay attention. In 2022 and 2023, Montero out-slugged the league average. Sure, he only played in a combined 138 games and yes, his expected slugging was well below his actual in both seasons, but he does play in Colorado. He combined for 17 home runs between the two seasons and now, he’s being projected for another 17 in 2024 along with a .448 slugging percentage. With strikeout rates in the 30s and apparent issues hitting anything besides a fastball, Montero ranks in the bottom of the “Call Maybes” bucket. Still, ATC is projecting a step forward in a few statistics including batting average and OBP. His playing time prospects will need to be monitored closely as he is currently projected as a bench bat by Roster Resource.

José Caballero may simply be a placeholder until Taylor Walls (hip) returns to the lineup. But, should Caballero hold down the SS position defensively while being a threat on the basepaths, maybe he will stick around. He’s a sneaky stolen base option who, for now, should be a playing time lock. He could add 10 stolen bases to your totals in the first few months of the season at a low cost.

J.D. Davis was ranked early in the draft season as a third baseman with the Giants, fell off of this list once Matt Chapman came to town, and now rejoins as an Oakland Athletic. His stock could actually rise given the fact that he is now less likely to be platooned and could bulk his way to 20 home runs. He hasn’t slugged less than .400 once in the past three seasons and he has always kept an above-average hard-hit rate in the majors.

Should we discuss Anthony Rendon? He hasn’t played more than 60 games since 2019 and what is there to suggest that could change in 2024? I’m rooting for him but not enough to draft him. Rendon made headlines this spring when he said that baseball has “never been a top priority” for him. That’s not a good sign for his 2024 prospects of bouncing back to relevancy. Rendon has already dealt with a groin injury in spring training and he has been plagued with injury ever since moving to California. You should expect more of the same in 2024.

Nick Senzel is an interesting pick worth a $1 bid or reserve round pick due to his expected full-time role with the Nationals. Senzel is still only 28 years old and I’m sure fantasy managers with Senzel rostering experience will scoff at the sight of his name on a draft list, but remember, #ImNotSoSureYouShould. Still, he’s never really been able to put together a full season due to injuries and positional battles, but maybe that changes with a year in Washington.

With the signing of Tim Anderson to the Marlins, Jon Berti drops a spot but stays on the list due to his potential to steal 20 bags. It would take a keen observer to manage Berti on a fantasy roster. He will likely play a utility role in 2024 and that means fantasy managers have to pay close attention to the lineup as they set their rosters. Berti has more value in daily leagues that allow constant roster tweaking. Players in weekly leagues should probably stay away from Berti unless his playing time changes due to an injury on the Marlins’ starting squad.

Finally, last place is probably harsh for a guy who could hit 20 bombs, but Patrick Wisdom’s power will come with all other categories being empty.