Chad’s 2024 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: Starting Pitchers

As we move into draft season, I will be updating these rankings occasionally, when there is news to justify changes. The original rankings will stay at the bottom of the article to maintain my player notes. The original SP rankings were posted 1/31 and the most recent update is 2/28.

Changelog:

2/26 – In comparing auction results to my rankings, I found that I was underestimating the market for the top  ~40 pitchers, particularly the top 10-20. Sometimes I’ll find that the market isn’t aligned with my rankings and determine that is an opportunity for me, but in this case I determined that I was too low on those pitchers (rather than the market being too high). As a result, the top five tiers shifted from 1, 6, 10, 13, and 12 names per tier to 1, 12, 7, 10, and 15 names per tier.

In addition, I made the following changes: Moved Shota Imanaga up two tiers based on further research into his likely performance. Moved Braxton Garrett, Eduardo Rodriguez, Frankie Montas, Ranger Suárez, Logan Allen, Cristopher Sánchez, Josiah Gray, Hayden Wesneski, Michael Wacha, and Robbie Ray down a tier based on re-evaluating league economics. Moved Jordan Montgomery and Mike Clevinger each down a tier based on both expected performance and lack of a job. Moved Kyle Bradish, Kodai Senga, and Walker Buehler down multiple tiers due to health concerns. Moved James Paxton and David Peterson down one tier for the same reason. Moved Clayton Kershaw, Shane McClanahan, Max Scherzer, and Sandy Alcantara down a tier based on decreased willingness to spend on stashes. Added River Ryan, Noble Meyer, Yariel Rodriguez, Bubba Chandler, Chase Dollander, Matt Canterino, Juan Mejia, Sam Robberse, Luke Weaver, David Buchanan, Brandon Sproat, and Trevor Bauer to the rankings as they now meet the criteria to be ranked.

Updated Rankings:

 

Tiered SP Rankings for FanGraphs Points Scoring (2/28)
Rank Name Position Eligibility Tier
1 Spencer Strider SP $45-$54
2 Gerrit Cole SP $28-$35
3 Corbin Burnes SP $28-$35
4 Kevin Gausman SP $28-$35
5 Framber Valdez SP $28-$35
6 Luis Castillo SP $28-$35
7 Pablo López SP $28-$35
8 Zack Wheeler SP $28-$35
9 Tyler Glasnow SP $28-$35
10 Logan Webb SP $28-$35
11 George Kirby SP $28-$35
12 Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP $28-$35
13 Zac Gallen SP $28-$35
14 Blake Snell SP $21-$27
15 Max Fried SP $21-$27
16 Tarik Skubal SP $21-$27
17 Aaron Nola SP $21-$27
18 Grayson Rodriguez SP $21-$27
19 Cole Ragans SP/RP $15-$20
20 Freddy Peralta SP $15-$20
21 Zach Eflin SP $15-$20
22 Jesús Luzardo SP $15-$20
23 Logan Gilbert SP $15-$20
24 Justin Steele SP $15-$20
25 Eury Pérez SP $15-$20
26 Bobby Miller SP $15-$20
27 Joe Musgrove SP $15-$20
28 Sonny Gray SP $15-$20
29 Joe Ryan SP $10-$14
30 Carlos Rodón SP $10-$14
31 Tanner Bibee SP $10-$14
32 Shane Bieber SP $10-$14
33 Dylan Cease SP $10-$14
34 Chris Sale SP $10-$14
35 Hunter Brown SP $10-$14
36 Nick Lodolo SP $10-$14
37 Shota Imanaga SP $10-$14
38 Braxton Garrett SP $6-$9
39 Eduardo Rodriguez SP $6-$9
40 Hunter Greene SP $6-$9
41 Gavin Williams SP $6-$9
42 Justin Verlander SP $6-$9
43 Bailey Ober SP $6-$9
44 Shane Baz RP $6-$9
45 Michael King SP/RP $6-$9
46 Triston Mckenzie SP/RP $6-$9
47 Bryce Miller SP $6-$9
48 Ryan Pepiot SP/RP $6-$9
49 Jordan Montgomery SP $6-$9
50 Trevor Rogers RP $6-$9
51 Yu Darvish SP $6-$9
52 Kenta Maeda SP $6-$9
53 Mitch Keller SP $6-$9
54 Reid Detmers SP $6-$9
55 Yusei Kikuchi SP $6-$9
56 Charlie Morton SP $6-$9
57 Aaron Civale SP $6-$9
58 Kyle Bradish SP $3-$5
59 Kodai Senga SP $3-$5
60 Walker Buehler RP $3-$5
61 Clayton Kershaw SP $3-$5
62 Shane McClanahan SP $3-$5
63 Max Scherzer SP $3-$5
64 Sandy Alcantara SP $3-$5
65 Ricky Tiedemann SP $3-$5
66 Paul Skenes SP $3-$5
67 Chris Bassitt SP $3-$5
68 Brayan Bello SP $3-$5
69 Taj Bradley SP $3-$5
70 Cristian Javier SP $3-$5
71 Kyle Harrison SP $3-$5
72 Nathan Eovaldi SP $3-$5
73 Bryan Woo SP $3-$5
74 Merrill Kelly SP $3-$5
75 Kutter Crawford SP/RP $3-$5
76 Nick Pivetta SP/RP $3-$5
77 Edward Cabrera SP $3-$5
78 Seth Lugo SP $3-$5
79 Jacob DeGrom SP $3-$5
80 Nestor Cortes SP $3-$5
81 Max Meyer RP $3-$5
82 Jeffrey Springs RP $3-$5
83 Drew Rasmussen SP $3-$5
84 José Berríos SP $3-$5
85 Brandon Pfaadt SP $3-$5
86 Griffin Canning SP $3-$5
87 Jon Gray SP $3-$5
88 Marcus Stroman SP $3-$5
89 Andrew Abbott SP $3-$5
90 Reese Olson SP $3-$5
91 Luis Severino SP $3-$5
92 Frankie Montas RP $1-$2
93 Ranger Suárez SP $1-$2
94 Logan Allen SP $1-$2
95 Cristopher Sanchez SP $1-$2
96 Jackson Jobe SP $1-$2
97 Dustin May SP $1-$2
98 Sean Manaea SP/RP $1-$2
99 Louie Varland SP/RP $1-$2
100 A.J. Puk RP $1-$2
101 James Paxton SP $1-$2
102 MacKenzie Gore SP $1-$2
103 Cade Horton SP $1-$2
104 Alex Cobb SP $1-$2
105 Jacob Misiorowski SP $1-$2
106 Hurston Waldrep SP $1-$2
107 Robby Snelling SP $1-$2
108 Drew Thorpe SP $1-$2
109 Tyler Wells SP/RP $1-$2
110 AJ Smith-Shawver SP $1-$2
111 Clarke Schmidt SP $1-$2
112 Chris Paddack RP $1-$2
113 Zack Littell SP/RP $0-$1
114 Will Warren SP $0-$1
115 Josiah Gray SP $0-$1
116 Hayden Wesneski SP/RP $0-$1
117 River Ryan SP $0-$1
118 Michael Wacha SP $0-$1
119 Robbie Ray RP $0-$1
120 Emmet Sheehan SP $0-$1
121 Tink Hence SP $0-$1
122 Lucas Giolito SP $0-$1
123 Carson Whisenhunt SP $0-$1
124 Aaron Ashby SP/RP $0-$1
125 John Means SP/RP $0-$1
126 Dean Kremer SP $0-$1
127 J.P. France SP $0-$1
128 Lance McCullers Jr. RP $0-$1
129 Lance Lynn SP $0-$1
130 Jack Flaherty SP $0-$1
131 Andrew Heaney SP/RP $0-$1
132 Erick Fedde SP $0-$1
133 Javier Assad SP/RP $0-$1
134 Alek Manoah SP $0-$1
135 Tylor Megill SP $0-$1
136 Bryce Elder SP $0-$1
137 Matt Manning SP $0-$1
138 JP Sears SP $0-$1
139 Tanner Houck SP $0-$1
140 Joe Boyle SP/RP $0-$1
141 Sawyer Gipson-Long SP/RP $0-$1
142 Rhett Lowder Util $0-$1
143 Jared Jones SP $0-$1
144 Jose Quintana SP $0-$1
145 Dane Dunning SP/RP $0-$1
146 Taijuan Walker SP $0-$1
147 Casey Mize RP $0-$1
148 Steven Matz SP/RP $0-$1
149 Mick Abel SP $0-$1
150 Daniel Espino Util $0-$1
151 Keaton Winn SP $0-$1
152 Andrew Painter Util $0-$1
153 Ken Waldichuk SP/RP $0-$1
154 Robert Gasser SP $0-$1
155 Ryne Nelson SP $0-$1
156 Emerson Hancock SP/RP $0-$1
157 Chase Silseth SP/RP $0-$1
158 Ben Brown SP/RP $0-$1
159 Brandon Williamson SP $0-$1
160 Jordan Hicks RP $0-$1
161 Luis Medina SP/RP $0-$1
162 Johan Oviedo SP $0-$1
163 Kyle Gibson SP $0-$1
164 Tyler Mahle SP $0-$1
165 Jameson Taillon SP $0-$1
166 Anthony Desclafani SP $0-$1
167 Brady Singer SP $0-$1
168 Graham Ashcraft SP $0-$1
169 Miles Mikolas SP $0-$1
170 Patrick Sandoval SP $0-$1
171 Brandon Woodruff SP $0-$1
172 Michael Soroka SP $0
173 Mike Clevinger SP $0
174 Noble Meyer SP $0
175 Jhony Brito SP/RP $0
176 Connor Phillips SP $0
177 Paul Blackburn SP $0
178 David Peterson SP/RP $0
179 Michael Kopech SP $0
180 Dylan Lesko SP $0
181 Tyler Anderson SP $0
182 Gavin Stone SP/RP $0
183 Noah Schultz SP $0
184 Nick Martinez SP/RP $0
185 Kenny Rosenberg SP/RP $0
186 Yariel Rodriguez Util $0
187 Tekoah Roby SP $0
188 Owen White SP/RP $0
189 Landon Knack SP $0
190 Jack Leiter SP $0
191 Dominic Hamel SP $0
192 Gordon Graceffo SP $0
193 Sixto Sanchez RP $0
194 Jordan Wicks SP $0
195 Christian Scott SP $0
196 Bubba Chandler SP $0
197 Jake Eder SP $0
198 Quinn Priester SP $0
199 Luis L. Ortiz SP $0
200 Chase Hampton SP $0
201 Matthew Liberatore SP/RP $0
202 Cade Cavalli RP $0
203 Mike Vasil SP $0
204 Mason Black SP $0
205 Roansy Contreras SP/RP $0
206 Ryan Bergert SP $0
207 Matthew Boyd SP $0
208 Nick Frasso SP $0
209 Drey Jameson SP/RP $0
210 Kris Bubic RP $0
211 Darius Vines SP/RP $0
212 Adrian Houser SP $0
213 Domingo German SP $0
214 Alex Wood SP/RP $0
215 Jared Shuster SP $0
216 Kumar Rocker SP $0
217 Jose Butto SP $0
218 Jose Urquidy SP/RP $0
219 Vince Velasquez SP $0
220 Luis Garcia SP $0
221 Eric Lauer SP $0
222 German Marquez RP $0
223 Michael Lorenzen SP $0
224 Kyle Hendricks SP $0
225 Wade Miley SP $0
226 Cal Quantrill SP $0
227 Martin Perez SP/RP $0
228 Chase Dollander Util $0
229 Ross Stripling SP/RP $0
230 Kyle Wright SP $0
231 Alex Faedo SP $0
232 Zack Thompson SP/RP $0
233 Daniel Lynch IV SP $0
234 Matt Canterino Util $0
235 Juan Mejia SP/RP $0
236 Allan Winans SP/RP $0
237 Noah Syndergaard SP $0
238 Spencer Turnbull SP $0
239 Chase Anderson SP $0
240 Julio Teheran SP $0
241 Sem Robberse SP $0
242 Ian Anderson RP $0
243 Zack Greinke SP $0
244 Carlos Carrasco SP $0
245 Jackson Rutledge SP/RP $0
246 David Buchanan SP $0
247 Luke Weaver SP $0
248 Brandon Sproat Util $0
249 Tony Gonsolin SP $0
250 Julio Urias SP $0
251 Trevor Bauer RP $0

January Rankings and Notes:

On deadline day, we finally get to starting pitching. This is an abbreviated post, in that there are not comments on each of the starters at this point. I hope to come back to those in the future, but in order to have this up before you have to make final cuts, tradeoffs had to be made. If you want to get more info on any of these pitchers, Paul Sporer’s SP rankings, updated just a few days ago, is full of great insights. And while those are tailored to 5×5, not FanGraphs Points, the comments are still very useful.

Meanwhile, I will just say that I am panicking a little bit about starting pitching this year. Part of it is the position feels thing at the top, but part is that the top of this list is riddled with players who have made a leap in the last 12-24 months, meaning their prices are still reasonable and so they are keepers. Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes are getting cut in some of my leagues, but not all. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be a free agent in all leagues. But most of the rest of the top 35 or so are keepable in a lot of leagues.

As I realized that, I did a couple of things:

  1. I traded for pitchers I liked even if the price was less than ideal. Slightly overpriced Reid Detmers? Sure. Expensive Spencer Strider? No problem.
  2. I stopped trading pitchers I like unless the return is just too good to pass up. I was asked about Pablo López in one league and told the other manager the ask wouldn’t be reasonable. He wanted to hear it, I shared it and…it was not reasonable. No deal. I’ll just keep Pablo.

For drafts, my plan is to allocate more to pitching than I normally would. If I need pitching, my only options for a top-40 arm might be Yamamoto, Carlos Rodón, and maybe one or two others. If that is the case, I need to be confident I am ready to go get one of those guys. If that means cutting back on offense, so be it.

For the methodology and notes on the rankings, please check out my intro column.

Tiered Starting Pitching Rankings for FanGraphs Points Scoring
Rank Name Position Eligibility Tier
1 Spencer Strider SP $45-$54
2 Gerrit Cole SP $28-$35
3 Corbin Burnes SP $28-$35
4 Kevin Gausman SP $28-$35
5 Framber Valdez SP $28-$35
6 Tyler Glasnow SP $28-$35
7 Pablo López SP $28-$35
8 Luis Castillo SP $21-$27
9 Zack Wheeler SP $21-$27
10 Logan Webb SP $21-$27
11 George Kirby SP $21-$27
12 Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP $21-$27
13 Blake Snell SP $21-$27
14 Zac Gallen SP $21-$27
15 Max Fried SP $21-$27
16 Tarik Skubal SP $21-$27
17 Aaron Nola SP $21-$27
18 Grayson Rodriguez SP $15-$20
19 Freddy Peralta SP $15-$20
20 Zach Eflin SP $15-$20
21 Jesús Luzardo SP $15-$20
22 Logan Gilbert SP $15-$20
23 Kodai Senga SP $15-$20
24 Kyle Bradish SP $15-$20
25 Justin Steele SP $15-$20
26 Eury Pérez SP $15-$20
27 Cole Ragans SP/RP $15-$20
28 Bobby Miller SP $15-$20
29 Joe Musgrove SP $15-$20
30 Sonny Gray SP $15-$20
31 Joe Ryan SP $10-$14
32 Tanner Bibee SP $10-$14
33 Dylan Cease SP $10-$14
34 Chris Sale SP $10-$14
35 Carlos Rodón SP $10-$14
36 Shane Bieber SP $10-$14
37 Hunter Brown SP $10-$14
38 Eduardo Rodriguez SP $10-$14
39 Jordan Montgomery SP $10-$14
40 Nick Lodolo SP $10-$14
41 Walker Buehler RP $10-$14
42 Braxton Garrett SP $10-$14
43 Justin Verlander SP $6-$9
44 Hunter Greene SP $6-$9
45 Shane Baz RP $6-$9
46 Gavin Williams SP $6-$9
47 Yu Darvish SP $6-$9
48 Bailey Ober SP $6-$9
49 Michael King SP/RP $6-$9
50 Triston McKenzie SP/RP $6-$9
51 Kenta Maeda SP $6-$9
52 Ryan Pepiot SP/RP $6-$9
53 Yusei Kikuchi SP $6-$9
54 Aaron Civale SP $6-$9
55 Trevor Rogers RP $6-$9
56 Mitch Keller SP $6-$9
57 Reid Detmers SP $6-$9
58 Charlie Morton SP $6-$9
59 Clayton Kershaw SP $6-$9
60 Shane McClanahan SP $6-$9
61 Max Scherzer SP $6-$9
62 Sandy Alcantara SP $6-$9
63 Ricky Tiedemann SP $3-$5
64 Bryce Miller SP $3-$5
65 Chris Bassitt SP $3-$5
66 Taj Bradley SP $3-$5
67 Brayan Bello SP $3-$5
68 Nathan Eovaldi SP $3-$5
69 Cristian Javier SP $3-$5
70 Paul Skenes SP $3-$5
71 Shota Imanaga SP $3-$5
72 Bryan Woo SP $3-$5
73 Kyle Harrison SP $3-$5
74 Merrill Kelly 켈리 SP $3-$5
75 Kutter Crawford SP/RP $3-$5
76 Nick Pivetta SP/RP $3-$5
77 Edward Cabrera SP $3-$5
78 Seth Lugo SP $3-$5
79 Nestor Cortes SP $3-$5
80 Max Meyer RP $3-$5
81 José Berríos SP $3-$5
82 Jon Gray SP $3-$5
83 Jacob deGrom SP $3-$5
84 Jeffrey Springs RP $3-$5
85 Drew Rasmussen SP $3-$5
86 Brandon Pfaadt SP $3-$5
87 Marcus Stroman SP $3-$5
88 Griffin Canning SP $3-$5
89 Andrew Abbott SP $3-$5
90 Reese Olson SP $3-$5
91 Luis Severino SP $3-$5
92 Frankie Montas RP $3-$5
93 Ranger Suárez SP $3-$5
94 Dustin May SP $3-$5
95 Logan Allen SP $3-$5
96 Sean Manaea SP/RP $3-$5
97 A.J. Puk RP $3-$5
98 James Paxton SP $3-$5
99 Cristopher Sánchez SP $3-$5
100 MacKenzie Gore SP $1-$2
101 Alex Cobb SP $1-$2
102 David Peterson SP/RP $1-$2
103 Cade Horton SP $1-$2
104 Jacob Misiorowski SP $1-$2
105 Jackson Jobe SP $1-$2
106 Hurston Waldrep SP $1-$2
107 Robby Snelling SP $1-$2
108 Drew Thorpe SP $1-$2
109 Tyler Wells SP/RP $1-$2
110 AJ Smith-Shawver SP $1-$2
111 Clarke Schmidt SP $1-$2
112 Chris Paddack RP $1-$2
113 Hayden Wesneski SP/RP $1-$2
114 Michael Wacha SP $1-$2
115 Robbie Ray RP $1-$2
116 Josiah Gray SP $1-$2
117 Louie Varland SP/RP $0-$1
118 Emmet Sheehan SP $0-$1
119 Tink Hence SP $0-$1
120 Carson Whisenhunt SP $0-$1
121 Will Warren SP $0-$1
122 Dean Kremer SP $0-$1
123 John Means SP/RP $0-$1
124 Aaron Ashby SP/RP $0-$1
125 J.P. France SP $0-$1
126 Lucas Giolito SP $0-$1
127 Lance McCullers Jr. RP $0-$1
128 Lance Lynn SP $0-$1
129 Jack Flaherty SP $0-$1
130 Andrew Heaney SP/RP $0-$1
131 Erick Fedde 페디 SP $0-$1
132 Javier Assad SP/RP $0-$1
133 Alek Manoah SP $0-$1
134 Bryce Elder SP $0-$1
135 Matt Manning SP $0-$1
136 JP Sears SP $0-$1
137 Tanner Houck SP $0-$1
138 Sawyer Gipson-Long SP/RP $0-$1
139 Jose Quintana SP $0-$1
140 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 SP $0-$1
141 Dane Dunning SP/RP $0-$1
142 Taijuan Walker SP $0-$1
143 Casey Mize RP $0-$1
144 Steven Matz SP/RP $0-$1
145 Mick Abel SP $0-$1
146 Rhett Lowder Util $0-$1
147 Daniel Espino Util $0-$1
148 Keaton Winn SP $0-$1
149 Andrew Painter Util $0-$1
150 Ken Waldichuk SP/RP $0-$1
151 Robert Gasser SP $0-$1
152 Ryne Nelson SP $0-$1
153 Emerson Hancock SP/RP $0-$1
154 Chase Silseth SP/RP $0-$1
155 Ben Brown SP/RP $0-$1
156 Zack Littell SP/RP $0-$1
157 Tylor Megill SP $0-$1
158 Brandon Williamson SP $0-$1
159 Jordan Hicks RP $0-$1
160 Joe Boyle SP/RP $0-$1
161 Jared Jones SP $0-$1
162 Luis Medina SP/RP $0-$1
163 Johan Oviedo SP $0-$1
164 Kyle Gibson SP $0-$1
165 Tyler Mahle SP $0-$1
166 Jameson Taillon SP $0-$1
167 Mike Clevinger SP $0-$1
168 Anthony DeSclafani SP $0-$1
169 Brady Singer SP $0-$1
170 Graham Ashcraft SP $0-$1
171 Miles Mikolas SP $0-$1
172 Patrick Sandoval SP $0-$1
173 Brandon Woodruff SP $0-$1
174 Michael Soroka SP $0
175 Jhony Brito SP/RP $0
176 Connor Phillips SP $0
177 Paul Blackburn SP $0
178 Michael Kopech SP $0
179 Dylan Lesko SP $0
180 Tyler Anderson SP $0
181 Gavin Stone SP/RP $0
182 Noah Schultz SP $0
183 Nick Martinez SP/RP $0
184 Kenny Rosenberg SP/RP $0
185 Tekoah Roby SP $0
186 Owen White SP/RP $0
187 Landon Knack SP $0
188 Jack Leiter SP $0
189 Dominic Hamel SP $0
190 Gordon Graceffo SP $0
191 Sixto Sánchez RP $0
192 Jordan Wicks SP $0
193 Christian Scott SP $0
194 Jake Eder SP $0
195 Quinn Priester SP $0
196 Luis L. Ortiz SP $0
197 Chase Hampton SP $0
198 Matthew Liberatore SP/RP $0
199 Cade Cavalli RP $0
200 Mike Vasil SP $0
201 Mason Black SP $0
202 Roansy Contreras SP/RP $0
203 Ryan Bergert SP $0
204 Matthew Boyd SP $0
205 Nick Frasso SP $0
206 Drey Jameson SP/RP $0
207 Kris Bubic RP $0
208 Darius Vines SP/RP $0
209 Adrian Houser SP $0
210 Domingo Germán SP $0
211 Alex Wood SP/RP $0
212 Jared Shuster SP $0
213 Kumar Rocker SP $0
214 José Butto SP $0
215 José Urquidy SP/RP $0
216 Vince Velasquez SP $0
217 Luis Garcia SP $0
218 Eric Lauer SP $0
219 Germán Márquez RP $0
220 Michael Lorenzen SP $0
221 Kyle Hendricks SP $0
222 Wade Miley SP $0
223 Cal Quantrill SP $0
224 Martín Pérez SP/RP $0
225 Ross Stripling SP/RP $0
226 Kyle Wright SP $0
227 Alex Faedo SP $0
228 Zack Thompson SP/RP $0
229 Daniel Lynch IV SP $0
230 Allan Winans SP/RP $0
231 Noah Syndergaard SP $0
232 Spencer Turnbull SP $0
233 Chase Anderson SP $0
234 Julio Teheran SP $0
235 Ian Anderson RP $0
236 Zack Greinke SP $0
237 Carlos Carrasco SP $0
238 Jackson Rutledge SP/RP $0
239 Corey Kluber SP/RP $0
240 Tony Gonsolin SP $0
241 Julio Urías SP $0





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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LightenUpFGmember
3 months ago

A lot of the $5 and under crowd is like playing with fire, but some of the veterans are interesting to take a chance on. Getting any of the top 17, if they’re even available, is going to be ex-pen-sive.