2024 Fantasy Busts – Sporer’s Picks
I’m stealing Jeff’s intro for these Busts because it gets the message across clearly and frankly, many of y’all won’t even read this:
I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.
Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.
For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth.
Check out Jeff’s picks here!
Changelog
- 3/21/2024: ADP & Dollar Value updates — I’m still not in on any of this group
- 2/14/2024: Initial list
Ranking Methodology
- ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
- $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
- ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
- 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).
Busts in the Top 50 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | 3B/SS | – | 26 | $15 |
| 2 | CJ Abrams | WAS | SS | – | 39 | $12 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | SP | – | 41 | $20 |
While it might be a little on the nose, it’d be more surprising to not include Elly De La Cruz on a “Bust” list at his insane ADP. I understand the general excitement after the 22-year-old delivered 13 HR/35 SB in just 98 games, but it came with just an 84 wRC+ as the league caught up to him quickly, holding him to a meager .192/.271/.353 line in his final 69 games (not nice). Sure, there’s a world where he makes a sharp adjustment and those dreaming on an extrapolation of those sexy HR/SB numbers strike it rich, but as a Top 25 pick, he almost has to do that to avoid being a big miss. I’d much rather just wait 60 or so picks for Oneil Cruz.
This one is in line with the De La Cruz situation where I understand the desire to invest in the upside, but at this price there is a substantial burden on CJ Abrams to perform and I’m just not sure we can bank on much beyond the SBs. Even during his summer surge when he swiped 38 SBs in 78 games, it came with just a .752 OPS. He hit 11 HRs in that time, too, and 18 in all so I don’t want to suggest he has an empty bat, but I just don’t think he has established the kind of floor I’d like for a Top 50 pick. Both Abrams and De La Cruz should steal enough to not be completely worthless if their bats lag, but I generally like at least some semblance of a plus bat in my Top 50 picks (Abrams 90 wRC+, EDLC 84).
I ranked Tyler Glasnow 12th in my SP rankings so I’m splitting some hairs here as I could see myself taking him somehwere in the 70s or later. I’m just incredibly nervous about making him my ace with a Top 40 pick given that last year’s 120 IP were a career-high. I also worry that his price will only rise if he looks good in Spring Training. I have to admit that I am more open to taking this kind of risk on pitching so this is a softer fade than EDLC and Abrams.
Busts from 51 to 100 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nolan Jones | COL | OF | – | 56 | $16 |
| 5 | Joe Ryan | MIN | SP | – | 85 | $15 |
Is it lazy to just say “.401 BABIP!” and move on with Nolan Jones? Yes, yes it is. And it’s certainly not just the unsustainable BABIP that has me pushing away from Jones at his elevated price. He is a big strikeout guy which always gives me some pause with a player who is supposed to give me an AVG boost. In fairness, his Ks aren’t built off of flailing at the dish (his 12% SwStr isn’t much worse than the 11% league avg.), but moreso because he runs deep counts waiting for his pitch, happily taking a walk if it doesn’t come but also striking out a ton in the process. His 4.29 pitches per PA would’ve been 5th highest had he qualified, in company with other high-K guys like Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and teammate Ryan McMahon (Ha-Seong Kim is an interesting outlier as the only guy in that group with just a 20% K rate).
Perhaps the craziest part of Jones’s season was the road work: .935 OPS aided by a .434 BABIP. That’s wild for anyone, but especially bonkers for a Colorado Rockie. I worry that many are dreaming on what his 20/20 production from 106 games will look like for a full season in Coors. I see something like mid-to-high 20s in each category with .250s-type AVG which cuts a Randy Arozarena kind of figure but I’m not sure he can get to the 95 R/83 RBI that Arozarena had as the Rockies haven’t had a 90-R scorer since 2019. I can’t lie, I’m torn on Jones because I like him as a player, but push-come-to-shove I’m inclined to get a cheaper power-speed guy instead of paying a Top 60 pick for Jonesy given his lack of track record. It’s a No-Go for No-Jo in this dojo.
This is always one of my least favorite things in fantasy baseball: having to move off a one-time favorite when their price gets too high. Joe Ryan’s HR issue is growing as his ADP rises. His 1.8 HR9 was 4th-highest last year (min. 160 IP), resulting in a 4.51 ERA. Even his 1.2 mark from 2021-22 would slot 15th and I just worry that his strong K-BB rate won’t be able to counter the HRs and return a Top 100 value. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan does bring a great K rate and strong WHIP to the table but why not just take teammate Bailey Ober 60+ picks later? He has the same profile and just as much upside as far as I’m concerned.
Busts from 101 to 150 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zack Gelof | OAK | 2B | – | 133 | $3 |
| 7 | Esteury Ruiz | OAK | OF | – | 127 | $6 |
| 8 | Cedric Mullins | BAL | OF | – | 150 | $9 |
It feels kind of mean to kick Oakland when they’re down, but my next two entries are among the limited bright spots on their team. I think “The Extrapolators” (the people who take a small sample and just extrapolate it out to 600 PA) are playing with fire in thinking Zack Gelof can approach a 30/30 season after his blistering debut (14 HR/SB in 300 PA). I lean way closer to the projections that have him more in the 20/20 range with a sub-.240 AVG and that might not even be a Top 150 hitter, let alone overall. Be careful.
If you’ve been following my work for a while, you know I’m just not a fan of the Rabbit player type aka the SB-only profile. Esteury Ruiz panned out as well as you could hope with an AL-best 67 SBs and landed as a Top 140 player according to the Auction Calculator, but I’m honestly more concerned about what he does to a team build than whether or not he will return enough “value” on his ADP. He is a 4-category negative that and I just don’t know that the SBs are worth it unless you really bolster the rest of your offense to take on Ruiz’s negatives. At that point, I’d rather just take Jorge Mateo at a post-500 ADP.
Y’all, do NOT send this to Justin Mason! It will irreparably damage our relationship, but I’m just not in on Cedric Mullins. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t some kind of worthless scrub but there are just so many more OF I prefer in his general range. My biggest concern is that if he continues to be a league average-ish bat (99 wRC+), he could start to lose playing time given the seemingly unlimited number of options that Orioles are churning out of their system these days. Mullins is someone who needs volume to sustain his value, especially if he doesn’t turn the tide on his shrinking AVG and BABIP. Justin, if you’re reading this, don’t worry I’m pivoting to another one of your favorites over Mullins as I’d rather just take TJ Friedl at the same ADP.
Busts from 151 to 200 ADP
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jarren Duran | BOS | OF | – | 151 | $3 |
| 10 | José Alvarado | PHI | RP | – | 159 | $9 |
How is the less proven Ced Mullins just a round cheaper? Jarren Duran is coming off a strong 120 wRC+ with 8 HR and 24 SB in 362 PA which clearly has many excited given his ADP, but I can’t do it. This is another one where I’m worried “The Extrapolators” are pushing the ADP up. I buy the speed, but I’m tepid on his pop and his poor plate skills put a heavy burden on his BABIP to drive the AVG (a .381 BABIP fueled the .295 AVG). Give me any of Chas McCormick, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, James Outman, Lars Nootbaar, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, and even Duran’s new teammate Tyler O’Neill over him at similar to cheaper price tags. They don’t all bring the speed he does, but it could be some pretty empty SBs if his BABIP isn’t strong.
This is admittedly less about being out on José Alvarado and more about loving Jeff Hoffman. The departure of Craig Kimbrel opens the door for more SVs, but Alvarado had just 10 last year and while he isn’t terribly expensive, he is going nearly 300 picks earlier than Hoffman. Hell, even Seranthony Domínguez could be in the mix for Philly SVs and he’s going nearly 500 picks after Alvarado! I don’t mind dipping into the Philly bullpen as they will likely spread their SVs out, I’m just not paying a Top 200 pick for any of their guys.
Full Rankings Without Tiers
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | Change | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | 3B/SS | – | 26 | $15 |
| 2 | CJ Abrams | WAS | SS | – | 39 | $12 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | SP | – | 41 | $20 |
| 4 | Nolan Jones | COL | OF | – | 56 | $16 |
| 5 | Joe Ryan | MIN | SP | – | 85 | $15 |
| 6 | Zack Gelof | OAK | 2B | – | 133 | $3 |
| 7 | Esteury Ruiz | OAK | OF | – | 127 | $6 |
| 8 | Cedric Mullins | BAL | OF | – | 151 | $9 |
| 9 | Jarren Duran | BOS | OF | – | 151 | $3 |
| 10 | José Alvarado | PHI | RP | – | 159 | $9 |
Only disagree on Alvarado. He wasn’t used as much late because they had Kimbrel. Alvarado will be first in line for most saves assuming his fastball is back and certainly worth a pick in the 150 range in my mind. But we shall see. I guess as a Phillies fan I’m just not as impressed with Hoffman as you.
That’s fair. And again, it’s not anti-Alvarado. Just think they spread things around and like you said, we differ on Hoffman. I just wish Alvarado was 30-40 picks cheaper
Paul I keep getting Alvarez in auctions for $7 or $8. Pretty cheap.
Me too. Great list but I’m buying Alvarez because his numbers will be good and he should lead the team in saves. But the top 3 are dead on in my opinion. Glasnow injury risk. Elly has red flags for 2024.
Still, a 120 wRC+ is an impressive achievement
The Nolan Jones hate has gone too far!
Perhaps! I reallyyyy want to like, but at this price point he has to perform
Def understand the CJ wariness, but he’s only had 100ish games in the minors and then now 1.5 seasons of games in the majors, through his age 22 season. Think that, combined with his scouting reports as a prospect, is enough to believe there could be significant upside from here, or at least, a similar level.
There was similar poo-pooing of Francisco Alvarez without any mention of his age – sure, a .284 OBP sucks, but as a 21 yr in his first season in the bigs, probably very focused on major league defense every day, I think it’s important to take note of the context with these really young prospects, rather than taking their numbers at face value only.
Of course, they could both end up with sub .300 OBPs this year, but I think it’s less likely than them both improving a bit. AND – if CJ gets that OBP up even .10, think of the additional steal opportunities.
Totally get all that. My only issue is that at pick-40, CJ *has* to improve to be worth this price. If he was around Oneil Cruz at 80ish, I’d be in a good bit bc I like the player in general. Just can’t pay the uber-premium
Got it – more about draft position, which does make sense. I don’t think he’s a top 40 player necessarily, too, but that upside is tantalizing, if CJ can access some more of that hit tool that is supposed to be there. Plus more PAs from hitting leadoff all year. Guess we will see!
Agreed Paul. Is Abrams not a horrible hitter vs lefties meaning he could lose at bats.
Abrams is objectively bad against lefties, but outside of the toughest lefties being a good day for him to get a day off he’s unlikely to lose time. He’s the starting SS., and I think this is overthinking things.
For me his draft position depends on league stats. A 20-40 SS who scores runs paves over a lot of OBP/RBI potholes.
The recipe for an elite hitter is hitting the ball hard, making contact at a high rate, and making good swing decisions.
Jarren Duran did all three things very well last year. His average best speed was 102.14 (max exit velo 112.6), his zone contact was 91.2%, and his zone swing minus O-swing was 39.7%.
Only three hitters had an average best speed above 102 mph, zone contact above 89.9%, and a Z swing – O swing above 39.7%: Juan Soto, Yandy Diaz, and Jarren Duran.
You argue Duran should go much later than Mullins. But Cedric Mullins showed less power (98.4 average best speed, max exit velo 110.4), and less contact (84.7% zone contact). Mullins does make better swing decisions. (Z swing – O swing 42.7%).
There’s a chance Duran is a very good hitter who will steal 20-30 bases. That would make him a great value at pick 174.
Great stuff here, though I don’t think Duran should go much later than Mullins. I think both should be later with a slightly bigger split b/w em
It would be helpful in articles like this if you put the pick at which you would actually take them to get a sense of whether they are a bust as a keeper.
Bust for Jones makes sense. Still think he can produce 20/20 with .245BA. So much pop and plate discipline. Concerned about contact rates if power and BABIP fall off however, Coors does help prop up this.
J.Duran figuring out how to utilize the power he showed in the underlying data would mitigate all the skepticism for me.
Estuary Ruiz is about PT for me. Guy will still run an incredible amount, just need to pair him up.
Agree about Gelof. Contact rates aren’t good enough, he had rookie luck.
Agree about Esteury Ruiz. PT and lineup placement. From August 5th when he returned from the injured list through the end of the season, Ruiz had 18 games where he DNP, had 0 PAs, or 1 PA. In the games he did play – in September – he slotted in the 8 or 9 hole 10 times. Ruiz is barely draftable unless he is 1. a full-time player, and 2. the leadoff hitter
I like this entire list, even if I already have a few shares of Gelof and a number of shares of Alvarado. The latter was rolling as Phillies closer in 2023 until elbow inflammation sent him to the DL. Provided he is healthy, I think Alvarado is the clear favorite for Saves early on. Hoffman was sensational last year, and the Phillies have a long list of names who can ‘potentially’ close, including Seranthony, Kerkering, and even Soto who has a 30 save season on his resume. So there is certainly a degree of usage risk with Alvarado.
Duran – meh – for all the reasons you mention. Though, he gets a tad bit more interesting if he is the dedicated lead-off hitter, and it sounds as if that is the direction the Red Sox are headed.
Good article.
Thanks for the kind words! I agree that even if you don’t dispute Alvarado’s inclusion on the list, he isn’t a *bad* pick. He will get some SVs and has a chance to be “the man”. My zeal for Jeff Hoffman takes me away from Alvarado, but I can totally see the other side. He is one of the softer inclusions on the list just so I can hype Hoffman a bit!
As a Phillies fan, I hope they are working on an extension with Hoffman right now. If he repeats his 2023 season, he is looking at a big payday. Probably 10M+ AAV I would think.
No problem in draft champions leagues. Just take them both
Jarren Duran has been already called out as the leadoff hitter. If he stays healthy, I could see 15 HR / 30 SB even with a reduction in BA. Given his price point, not seeing the risk
“But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.”
This is true but I just wanted to point out that when it comes to a fantasy baseball draft, unless you get really lucky, a majority of the players you draft will be under their projections, even at season’s end. This is of course because the top 200 will contain a significant number of players who did not get drafted but are outperforming their projection.
So when you get to June 1 and realize that six of the nine starting hitters that you drafted are underperforming their ADP, don’t blame yourself for a bad draft strategy, you are sitting pretty close to average.
I disagree with two choices, Duran and EDLC. Since someone already presented a great counter to Duran I will go with EDLC.
In order to make the jumps EDLC has the last 2 years you must be a hard worker. Because of this hard work and incredible talent he moved up quicker than his hitting tool was ready for. But let the hard work and instincts kick in. All winter he has been working with Juan Soto and the Reds hitting coach. He has two flaws in his game and If I know them I am sure he is aware that he needs to adjust his launch angle and make more contact. I believe both will be accomplished and we will know in the next couple of weeks.
He will be hitting in the heart of the order in a great ballpark so his Runs and RBI will be there.
He will increase his launch angle so, assuming health, 35 HR seems a reasonable estimate.
He will reduce his K% from 33% to 25% – 30% so he should hit .250. He may surprise and even beat 25%.
His improved contact will also lead to more SB.
I see EDLC as a 35/70 player this year and if all goes right he joins Acuna in the 40/70 club.
I’d like to push back on the Joe Ryan take. The narrative is that he became hittable in the 2nd half b/c batters were able to just tee off on his fastball but I’m just not sure that is correct. He still held a 13.8% SwStk rate and 24.3% K-BB showing that he was still able to generate swings and misses at a reasonable clip. He also had a .366 babip in the 2nd half which given that he’s a fly ball pitcher is ridiculously high. Is he going to make an ace turn? Probably not but I don’t think he’s as bad as then 2nd half number suggest. Projection systems are already a 1.4 HR/9 and 4.0 ERA which is close to his career average which is very reasonable. He doesn’t walk too many guys so he should give you a solid whip and lots of Ks. Given this projection, he’s still a bargain when compared the market so I think this is more of a buying opportunity with a pretty safe floor. The price is already pretty reasonable so I just don’t see him as a bust
Can’t believe it took reading this article’s methodology section for me to realize that the auction calculator spits out its mutli-position guys with the most valuable first. That’s insanely convenient, ive been doing so much stupid legwork.
“No go for No-Jo in this dojo” ….. I ain’t even.
i Think Gelof is going 40-40 and now that I’m offended you took the under, my day is ruined