Archive for Ottoneu

Ottoneu Offseason Checklist

It is now that time of year when your inbox pings and dings with notifications from Ottoneu. Is that a good trade proposition? Should you keep player A? Are you over-paying player B? These are all questions you should be asking yourself this off-season. Luckily, FanGraphs has all the data you need to make informed decisions. Here are three easy steps you can take this offseason to ensure you’re ready for your Ottoneu re-draft.

1. Merge your league rosters with new 2023 projections.

In order to do this you need two things:

(a) a fresh .csv download of auction calculator values (both pitchers and hitters) using steamer projections, tuned to your specific league settings.
(b) your league csv, which you can easily download by clicking on the tools icon at the top of your Ottoneu league page.

From there, you’ll need to merge your new 2023 values with your current players. Here’s an example from one of my teams:

Current Salary vs. Projected Value
Name Position(s) Current Salary 23 Steamer Projected Value Diff
Taylor Walls 2B/SS/3B $4.00 -$51.36 $55.36
DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B/3B $24.00 -$17.67 $41.67
Josh Donaldson 3B $23.00 -$15.31 $38.31
Eddie Rosario OF $9.00 -$27.42 $36.42
Cody Bellinger OF $24.00 -$10.59 $34.59

You can do two things with this table. First, you can compare the salary you’re paying a player with what Steamer 23′ thinks a player is worth. Clearly, I am overpaying Taylor Walls. Steamer thinks he’ll be worth negative value, so realistically if I wanted to keep Walls going into 2023, he would need to only be $1 with a lot of upside for that keep to make sense. Second, you can use the same process to see where your league mates stand. If you know your competition is underpaying a few players, you could target them as off-season trade candidates.

2. Use the roster organizer to place cuts on any over-paid players and decide if any players have trade value.

From the way my top five over-paid players table looks, I’ll be clicking over to the “Roster Organizer” tab and making a few cuts. This is a nice tool because it allows you to see how your budget changes depending on what cuts you make. Not all over-paid players need to be cut, but most of them should be cut or traded. Maybe you’re only overpaying by a few dollars and you think a league mate might be interested, slot them into the trade category. On the flip side, you can look for a few players that you are underpaying, but don’t believe in. It’s possible your hunch could be right, but it’s pretty hard to outsmart the projection systems.

3. Analyze your team’s needs for the upcoming season.

Now that you have your roster all organized and tidy, it’s time to figure out what you need for next season. Take your team exactly how it is and calculate the points your players will provide per category. My Ottoneu leagues are all FanGraphs points leagues, so I can take a steamer projection .csv, merge on my players and total out the points they will score based on the projections:

My Team's Projected Points (Bar Chart)

Without being able to compare to other teams, this bar graph only gives me a general sense of my offensive projections, but what I can tell is that my team is full of high-average players. Here’s a breakdown of where my points are coming from:

My Team’s Points Categories as a Percentage of the Total
Category Points Percentage of Total
H 13546.4 60.8%
Doubles 1412.3 6.3%
Triples 182.4 0.8%
HR 3543.8 15.9%
BB 3009 13.5%
HBP 372 1.7%
SB 209.0 0.9%
Steamer Projections

From what I see above, I believe I’ll need to shop for some power this off-season. It’s time to start looking for low-power/high-average players that I may be overpaying and use them as trade chips to acquire more power.

Breaking your and your league mates’ teams down in this way will give you the opportunity to make informed keep/cut, trade, and draft strategy decisions.

2022 Ottoneu Arbitration Player Data

Yesterday we looked at league and team data, today we turn our attention to player data. This is, arguably, the more interesting data. It has an immediate impact, since it tells us something about player valuations as we get ready for trade season. It also is an interesting signal outside the Ottoneu universe for the same reason – it’s a signal early in the off-season about how players are being valued. Arbitration data has, historically, influenced my rankings, keeper plans, and more. The wisdom of the crowds can be a powerful thing.

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2022 Ottoneu Arbitration League and Team Data

Arbitration wrapped up Monday and before we move onto trade season (though some of you already have), it’s worth looking back at what happened in arbitration and what we can learn from it.

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Strategies for Closing Ottoneu Arbitration

Ottoneu arbitration is wrapping up soon (all allocations and votes need to be in by November 14, at 11:59 pm ET), so now is your last chance to make sure you got it right. For some of you, it means being annoyed your league-mates haven’t finished arbitration yet, and posting messages on your league message board begging them to finish up (note: this is me). For some of you, that likely means panicking, realizing you haven’t done it, rushing to your league site, and getting something in. For some it is just one last chance to make some edits and decide if you are happy.

Which group you fall in determines what you should do this weekend or early next week.

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Ottoneu Arbitration Targets – Prospects

“But wait, Chad,” you say. “You have told us so many times that allocation arbitration dollars to prospects doesn’t make sense! Why even write this article?”

“You’re right,” I reply. “I probably shouldn’t. But I am going to do it anyway. Let me tell you why.”

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Ottoneu Arbitration Targets – Outfield

Welcome to the next installment of everyone’s favorite series, “Ottoneu Arbitration Targets!”  I am your host, Chad Young, and after we covered pitchers two weeks ago and infielders last week, today we venture out into the wilds of the outfield. In this grassiest of positions, we find one established stud, two elite soon-to-be-sophomores, and an intriguing breakout whose up-and-down season requires a little extra thought.

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Ottoneu Arbitration Targets – Infield

As promised, I am continuing to share potential arbitration targets going position-by-position. Last week we covered pitchers; today we cover infielders.  Read the rest of this entry »

Revisiting Ottoneu Arbitration Strategies: Part II

In Part I, I went over the data I used and talked about two strategies – putting on arbitration allocations on players to try to force them into the auction and allocating to pre-breakout potential stars. Today, we’ll look at a couple more topics.

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Revisiting Ottoneu Arbitration Strategies: Part I

I recently read The Midrange Theory, by Seth Partnow, which I would highly recommend if you are interested in basketball analytics, but that is not why I mention it. I mention it because his chapter about the NBA draft got me thinking about Ottoneu arbitration and drove me to do some research that turned into this article.

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Ottoneu Arbitration Targets – Pitchers

Ottoneu arbitration is underway, and over coming weeks, I’ll be sharing some potential arbitration targets going position-by-position. If you are new to Ottoneu arbitration, check out this article from Brad Johnson a few years back – it is a collection of links to all you need to know about Ottoneu arbitration.
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