03/09/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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FIRST BASE PREVIEW     

• NFBC Average Draft Data (set to Online leagues and start date of 2/29/20)

Superstars (4:40)

• Cody Bellinger
• Freddie Freeman
• Pete Alonso

Studs (13:35)

• Matt Olson
• Paul Goldschmidt
• DJ LeMahieu
• Anthony Rizzo
• Max Muncy
• Jose Abreu

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Shortstop is regarded as the deepest position on the diamond and I agree with that. It is remarkably rich with talent and you might wind up with your SS, MI, and UT from the position in some drafts. I can’t recall a time where that was ever the case.

Any of the top 26 could feasibly be your starter at the position and it wouldn’t be awful. Those guys in the 19-26 range have either already done it or have real upside to be strong starters. That kind of depth is usually reserved for 1B!

The blue bar starts a new tier. I included guys with at least 10 appearances/5 starts at SS to accommodate Yahoo!’s eligibility rules. Please let me know if I forgot to include anyone who definitely belongs on the list (meaning like an obvious top 25 type… there are some guys toward the end you might like but I likely didn’t include them because they’re not good enough)

If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.

Let me know what you think in the comments! What’s your gameplan at SS? Are you looking to pile up multiple studs at the position or are you going to push you luck and wait for the depth to come to you?

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The keystone is probably the weakest non-catcher position, but it’s not awful. I can’t get on Brad Johnson’s train that 2B is deeper than SS, but I will concede that the lack of depth at 2B has been overstated.

The blue bar starts a new tier. I included guys with at least 10 appearances at 2B to accommodate Yahoo!’s eligibility rules (I forgot to do that at 1B).

If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.

Let me know what you think in the comments!

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03/04/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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STARTING PITCHERS Pt. 5 (#81-101 + 10 more!)

• NFBC Average Draft Data (set to Online leagues and start date of 2/26/20)

81-86 (1:40)

• Johnny Cueto
• Brendan McKay
• Steven Matz
• Michael Pineda
• Ross Stripling
• Reynaldo López

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First base can dry up quickly if you’re not paying attention, but I do feel better about the position than I did at this time a year ago. I’m intrigued by that tier starting with McMahon as several of those guys could pay large dividends. Does McMahon himself take a step? Will Santana be a power/speed stud again? How do Dozier, Gurriel, and Canha follow up their breakout seasons? I don’t mind playing in that tier, but I don’t want my starting 1B coming from there.

The blue bar starts a new tier.

If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.

Let me know what you think in the comments!

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Can you believe March is just two days away? Draft season is upon us! I’ve updated my rankings and added 50 starters since the last one came out in January. I’ll have another update in March with some notes on most of the entrants (I can’t promise I’ll have a tidbit on all 175 arms, but many will have a stat or note similar to this run of rankings).

As you know, I feel there are globs of talent throughout the SP rankings wherein a 20, even 30 spot difference isn’t as vast as it seems because we’re splitting hairs between very similar arms and yet even knowing that I still agonize over the slottings and move guys up or down 2-3 spots like crazy before posting a new set of ranks. You’ll see tiers set up by the blue bars and that indicates the beginning of a new tier.

Enough chatter, let’s get to the rankings and start discussing them in the comments below. Again, if you think #34 should #29, I’m less interested in that as I probably agree that they could be flipped. Let’s focus on the bigger splits, like if you feel #83 should be #45 or #27 should be #62, etc… Of course you can also just make comments or ask questions about a pitcher without relating it to their ranking. I’m open to discussing my thought process on any of the 175 pitchers.

In the March run, I’m probably going to rank about 70 and then separate the other 105 into specific groups (prospects, injury arms, K-heavy, etc…) since I think that has some use in addition to a 1-175 list.

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Our undervalued player series continues now with the final offensive scoring category for 2020 – Runs Scored.

For those of you that are new to this series – in each article, we uncover potential undervalued players by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. So far I have gone through undervalued speedsters, power bats, outstanding batting average players as well as possible RBI Bargains.

In 2019, there were 60 players who scored at least 85 runs. There were 41 players who exceeded the 95 runs threshold, and 20 hitters scored at least 105. Four players managed to eclipse the lofty 120 runs plateau. Leading the majors were a pair of Red Sox – Mookie Betts (135) and Rafael Devers (129). Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves followed them with 127 runs.

Once again, just as in runs batted in, prospective projections are far more conservative than the final season long distribution. Steamer only projects one player – Mike Trout – to score more than 120 runs. Only four additional players are projected to score over 110 runs (Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich and George Springer).

Teams that win fantasy leagues are often highly correlated with the runs scored category. Finding a few undervalued players that can help pad your fantasy team’s run totals is a worthwhile exercise. For this year’s analysis, I will focus on all players with a Steamer projection of at least 85 runs. This should give us several helpful players.

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After an 85-win season and key additions on both sides (Starling Marte and Madison Bumgarner), the Diamondbacks are hoping to work their way into the playoffs. They likely be fighting for a wildcard spot thanks to the Dodgers being in their division, but there’s a lot of talent on this club and they should remain strong throughout 2020.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros
• Baltimore Orioles
• Cincinnati Reds
• Los Angeles Angels
• Miami Marlins
• Detroit Tigers

3 QUESTIONS

What does Zac Gallen’s first full season look like?

Apparently Gallen is battling Merrill Kelly and Alex Young to secure the fifth starter’s role heading into the season despite his scintillating debut last year. In fairness, Kelly and Young were pretty solid last year so I guess they deserve a shot to compete for the spot, but everyone seems to have Gallen as the leader in the clubhouse.

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02/24/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SPs Pt. 2 (31-45)

31-35 (2:55)

• Zack Wheeler
• Jesus Luzardo
• Frankie Montas
• Lance Lynn
• Madison Bumgarner

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02/23/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @MdThompFWFB – Guest: Matt Thompson

FWFB Draft Guide

• Amazon
• Email Justin for the $7 PDF at justinmasonfantasy@gmail.com

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