Top 30 Second Basemen for 2020
The newfound depth at shortstop and third base has sort of covered the fact that second base comes up a little light. Consider a dual-eligible player like Gleyber Torres. He ranks 5th at 2B on Razzball’s Player Rater, but sit 9th at SS. There are a host of dual- or even triple-eligible guys at the position, but they are often best deployed here at the keystone.
A wave of rookies who have burst onto the scene could give the position a modicum of depth for 2020, but that’s not a guarantee so we look at the position with some trepidation at this juncture. The top still has some major firepower so don’t be afraid to invest early, but then we get some big globs of sameness.
Other 2020 Rankings:
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Top 30 2B for 2020
| Player | Comment | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Altuve | Pwr jump outweighs shrinking SB… and those could return |
| 2 | Jonathan Villar | Excellent pwr/spd combo with dual-eligibility (SS) |
| 3 | Ozzie Albies | There’s real 30/30 upside for this premium talent |
| 4 | Ketel Marte | Still has the spd to push 20+ SB season if he wants it |
| 5 | Gleyber Torres | Backed up brilliant rookie campaign & could finish w/40 HR |
| 6 | Whit Merrifield | A 27-SB drop was rough, but it was still a strong season |
| 7 | Max Muncy | Showed ’18 was no fluke w/33 HR, 89 RBI, and 94 R |
| 8 | DJ LeMahieu | Even if pwr slips, the AVG, R, and RBI will sustain his value |
| 9 | Keston Hiura | The 38 HR/20 SB full season pace shows his big time ’20 upside |
| 10 | Jeff McNeil | Diet LeMahieu not getting the attention he deserves |
| 11 | Mike Moustakas | 3-yr avg: .261, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 72 R, & 2 SB |
| 12 | Eduardo Escobar | Hard to imagine another 35-HR yr, but mid-20s w/80+ RBI works |
| 13 | Ryan McMahon | From 7/1 on: .851 OPS, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 33 R, 4 SB in 259 PA |
| 14 | Cavan Biggio | Has skills to cut 29% K rate & be a dynamic pwr/spd combo |
| 15 | Gavin Lux | Across AA/AAA/MLB: .340 AVG, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 106 R, 11 SB |
| 16 | Kevin Newman | AVG/Spd profile is underrated in today’s pwr-focused game |
| 17 | Kolten Wong | Shows the extreme volatility of SB: 7, 8, & 6 before 23 this yr |
| 18 | Tommy Edman | Could be a .285-20-25 bat w/full time role & the same ball in ’20 |
| 19 | Brandon Lowe | Won’t hold .276 AVG w/34% K, but pwr-spd sustain his value |
| 20 | Tommy La Stella | Ball helps, but made changes to fuel pwr surge; monitor health |
| 21 | César Hernández | Deep league gem, but doesn’t excel at any one thing |
| 22 | Michael Chavis | Real pop is there, but AVG will be challenge w/his K% |
| 23 | Dee Gordon | SB-only profile and not even that many makes him a tough buy |
| 24 | Jurickson Profar | Might’ve been the unluckiest hitter this yr per this piece ($) |
| 25 | Robinson Canó | I don’t think I realized he’ll be 37 y/o next season |
| 26 | Nico Hoerner | Could be a La Stella-type right away thanks to juiced ball |
| 27 | Chris Taylor | Solid bat, but will struggle to recapture full-time role w/LAD |
| 28 | Niko Goodrum | Triple eligible (SS/OF) bat averaging 14 HR/12 SB in last 2 yrs |
| 29 | Starlin Castro | Quietly raking since July 1st: .314 AVG, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 40 R |
| 30 | David Fletcher | AVG Band-Aid doesn’t fit on every roster |
Honorable Mentions: Garrett Hampson, Howie Kendrick, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Luis Arraez
Derek Dietrich, Adam Frazier, Hanser Alberto, Rougned Odor
Brian Dozier, Shed Long, Mauricio Dubon
Derek Dietrich, Adam Frazier, Hanser Alberto, Rougned Odor
Brian Dozier, Shed Long, Mauricio Dubon
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Would move jonathan villar down several spots, just don’t believe in him as a hitter compared to Marte, Torres, Albies, etc.
Villar stuck out for me too. Before 2019, he was fresh off two poor seasons, and he’s not getting younger. At minimum he warrants a caveat: value in roto for steals depending on price/round, but beware in points leagues. Anything besides steals might be gravy. For example, his hard hit rate keeps declining; it is was below 30% last year.
Last year wasn’t poor. I can see the flaws and understand the critique, but last year was pretty strong for roto which is the basis for these. He definitely drops in points, but I’ll get more into that during the winter.
It might vary depending on format, but in my points league Villar is the 2nd best 2B in the league, behind only Ketel and tied with Escobar (who will barely retain positional eligibility). So I don’t think your ranking is that outrageous.
Improved launch angle + improved contact rate helps.
Increased launch angle at 28% hard hit even with increased contact suggests lower on base thus lower steals … plus the considerable risk that his body of work over three years is more representative of his lack of power.
I totally feel that, but the SBs are just so valuable when they come with viable pop. I’d probably pass on Villar at his cost now instead opting for Marte and Albies specifically.
Madrigal seems a likely candidate to be up after not too long next year, abt where would you put him? Very high BA/high OBP, lots of steals and runs likely, but little pop
Madrigal’s value in points leagues has the potential to be sky high due to the utter lack of K’s. His minor league numbers don’t look terribly impressive, but on a ppg basis they’re phenomenal.
I think you are being awfully generous. I would put him closer to an empty average than phenomenal production. I hope everyone else sees it your way!
It’s not really an opinion on emptiness or not, it’s just math. Despite his “empty” average, his numbers shake out to 3.51 ppg using my league’s scoring system, which is fairly standard. That number would put him 11th overall in MLB this year, right between Soto and Springer. And just barely 2nd to Ketel Marte at 2B.
Obviously, you can’t expect him to jump straight into MLB with that production, but frankly he doesn’t need to in order to have a ton of value. K’s are the poison pill of point-league baseball, and anyone who can avoid them gets a huge head start on everyone else.
That is not real accurate. He doesn’t walk a lot – you are double counting the AVG in OBP. He hasn’t stolen a ton of bases this year either. I don’t want him.
No Asdrubal Cabrera, even as an honorable mention?
Hiura will be the Brewers’ 2B next year, not Moustakas.
Edit: nvm, I missed Hiura in the rankings.
Gleyber & Marte are 1 and 2
I’ll bite: Why?
Their age and additional room for physical growth, and I think Albies is flashing his peak with the bat right now. Until he shows a willingness to run more than 20 times a year, I’ll always take the superior hitter at the cost of <10 steals.
Not expecting Solak to get the ABs?
Think he’s coming into the season at UT-only unfortunately, but I do like him.
Where would you put Tetsudo Yamada should he get posted
In any league that uses OBP instead of batting average, Arraez easily passes some near the bottom of the top 30, with an OBP north of .400 and in a lineup in which he scored a lot of runs.
He’s just so empty. A power-less AVG-only guy doesn’t do much for me.
(1) Arraez has a .412 OBP in 337 plate appearances, which is by far the best among MLB 2B with at least 300 at-bats and which would rank fifth among all MLB batters. His underlying metrics support his performance. In the majors, his swing strike rate is 3%, his walk rate is 10.4% and his xBA is in the 92nd percentile. His performance is also supported by his record in the minors, where he consistently posted BABIPs north of .350 along with high BB rates for a nom-power hitter.
(2) Arraez is in pace for 100 runs in a Twins lineup that should be as strong in 2020 and it was in 2019. So he if off-the-charts in one category in OBP leagues and elite in a second category (runs – 7 2B in 2019 will approach or surpass 100 runs).
(3) Only 7 2B in 2019 have 10 or more stolen bases, (two of whom have exactly 10). The median number of stolen bases in 5.5. Arraez has 2 in half a season. His affect on this category among 2B is nil — he is close to league average.
(4) Arraez hurts you in two categories – homers and RBIs. The latter is heavily affected by placement in the lineup – he’s averaged nearly an RBI every two games that he’s batted 6th, but has nearly two-thirds of his bats elsewhere. Because he lacks power and speed, his value is more dependent on lineup placement, and the run-scoring capability of that lineup, since that influences RBIs and runs.
(5) Arraez was only 22 this season. At age 22, Kevin Newman, 16th on your list, had 2 home runs in nearly 300 at-bats in low-A and A ball; his season high for homers before this year was 5. This year, Arraez has 23 extra-base hits in 298 at-bats; Newman has 35 in 458 at-bats. Players who have elite contact skills and strong plate discipline sometimes develop some power from their early-20s to their mid-20s.
Not sure if you listen to the pod with any regularity (or at all), but I mentioned Arraez on the latest one and how you sold me. I’m in!
Yoan Moncada is 2B/3B eligible… he’s the 11th ranked 2B on the player rater today… how does he not make the top 20? he’s certainly better than Edman, Lowe, and the rest of the list underneath. i’d personally put him in the top 12 on your list.
0 games at 2B this season, so I think he’ll be losing that eligibility.
Keep Villar as a 6th rounder, or McNeil as a 26th rounder in roto?
I think I take the 20 rounds even though I’m passing on the big speed
Way too much weight given to stolen bases. More fantasy formats should start to evolve with the modern game and discount their value, like in Ottoneu where their value is negligible. How can you trade off 5 extra stolen bases from albies at the expense of over 50 points of woba from marte?
my strategy the last few years has been to completely ignore stolen bases, since for the most part a guy that helps you in steals isn’t going to help you anywhere else. It’s worked pretty well
Same here. Actually my strategy is usually to make sure I get one of the unicorns (Lindor, Yelich, Trout, Acuna, etc) who thumps but also steals a lot of bases and then let my draft skew younger rather than older. That 26 yo slugger is probably going to get you 8-10 SB while that 32 yo slugger isn’t. Jay Bruce is a good example – he routinely stole 8-10 bases when he was younger. Not so much anymore.
My sentiment completely, which is why I usually just avoid Roto and go w points leagues that properly value them (as in, not the same as a home run).
The vast majority of leagues are still 5×5. And you’re just using this year as if that’s what they’re going to do next year. That’s not really how it works.
Man Arraez not being in the top 30 is so damn disappointing. As much as I love McMahon and Biggio and like the wishful thinking I think they are too high. I love the love for Edman, got him off of waivers in a league with roughly 1000 players rostered (30tm/40man). Out of the all of the non-Arraez HMs I think Dubon could steal the show on two conditions: he has to start AND whoever replaces Boch lets him run!
2B is deep. Just so many valuable players!
Arraez was a miss in all likelihood. I don’t think this list is full of super impressive players. Most players on this list are pretty speculative.
A miss how? Even just giving him the most aggressive outlook and taking his full season pace from this year, it’s just so incredibly empty: .346 AVG, 97 R, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB… zzz
Arraez did that, along with the 5th best OBP in MLB, at age 22 — many of the players above him were toiling in the low minors at that age. We should not Ignore age-relative-to competition as Arraez is at an age when power tends to develop, especially for someone with elite contact skills and good plate discipline.
Here’s another stat line for you to ponder: .298 OBP, 6 HR, 36 RBIs, 72 runs and 21 SB. Does that for a full season seem empty to you?
That is the 162-game pace in 2011 for a 21-year-old 2B who now tops your picks for 2020, Jose Altuve.
In no way do I think Arraez will remotely approach the player Altuve as the latter show good ISO in the minors even though he didn’t show power in the majors until his fourth year.
The point is that Arraez is a world-beater in OBP, elite in runs, and is young enough that he may develop some power over-time. After all, McNeil, who is 10th on your list, at age 22 his 3 homers in 439 at-bats in A and A+ ball.
Villar broke my heart in 2017. I’m just not ready to take him back yet.
McNeil changed from a slap hitter to more of a full swing – I think he is pretty legit. He is a classic juiced ball guy but that plays.
Half of these guys aren’t 2Bmen.
Nah, they all qualify
Whereas Marte and Torres are 25 and 22, respectively,
Whereas both are young, healthy and on the rise
Whereas Altuve and Villar are getting really close to 30
Shouldn’t Marte and Torres be ranked above them?
Wait, why does age automatically ensure better performance? Plus, the elders run more than the young bucks. I know Altuve was waaayyy down this year, but SBs are fickle. Love Marte, respect Torres, but they aren’t better just bc of their age
But their age is better protection against attrition. I’m just not using high draft picks on guys in their 30’s when similarly talented and younger players are available a round or two later.
I notice you didn’t list Eno anywhere… is he trying his position versatility this year at another spot?
I kinda get the feeling that in 2021 people are going to be drafting Merrifield praying for a bounce-back to the 2019 version.
Without hesitation I’d take Hiura over at least the next 3 ranked ahead of him.
I keep hoping Jose Ramirez gets moved back to 2B… How likely will that be in 2020 since Kipnis has a buyout option that the Indians probably should use, no?
They could/should probably keep trying Yu Chang at 3B, no? I suppose they still might just work out a cheaper resign of Kipnis as insurance though…
That’d be awesome. I’d love to get Ramirez back at 2B