Author Archive

2024 Fantasy Pitcher Breakouts – Sporer’s Picks

Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “Breakout”. These are guys I like at their market rate and have them outperforming their draft cost. Breakout, Sleeper, whatever your term is… these are the guys I like buying because they can deliver a strong profit.


Changelog

  • 3/15/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Top 100 Bargains

Top 100 Bargains
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 George Kirby SEA SP 33 $25
2 Evan Phillips LAD RP 89 $9

George Kirby is a Top 40 pick so we are dealing with small margins here to call him a breakout. He’s SP5 on my current rankings but will jump a spot to SP4 with the recent Gerrit Cole news. Kirby is in a tight SP8-10 window during early March drafts as you have to go to the decimals to separate the ADPs of Kirby, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Glasnow. I’m obsessed with 80-grade command and can easily see a path toward more strikeouts as he further develops his arsenal entering his third MLB season. Even if his 23% K rate doesn’t jump, he’s one of the stronger bets for 200+ IP so he could still deliver a Top 20 K total.

Did you know that Baseball Reference lists one of Evan Phillips’s nicknames as High Leverage Honey Bun? That and that alone is why he’s on this list. OK fine, it’s not the only reason. Being the closer on one of the best teams in baseball coming off back-to-back elite seasons also drives my interest in Phillips. Some may be bothered by him only notching 24 SVs, but that didn’t stop him from being 5th best RP on the Auction Calcultor thanks to his tiny ratios (2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I have no idea why he’s the 11th closer off the board… I’m taking maybe five guys ahead of him (Diaz, Duran, Hader, Clase, Doval).

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Starting Pitcher 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Finally! If you follow my chat, you know I’ve been promising my SP rankings for quite some time, but after we made the decision to do this rollout, it didn’t make sense for me to just do a 1-to-152 ranking and then release these a week or two later. I appreciate the patience and now that they’re finally here, you can expect plenty of updates. There will be added write ups for guys who didn’t get mentioned as well as updates when someone’s outlook changes (which is particularly important for the pending FAs).

Let me know if you think I left anyone off and I’ll look into adding during an update.


Changelog


Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Rotowire Online Championship Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

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Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – March 13th, 2024

Thanks for coming out!!

1:02

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

1:03

GM: Drafting a HR’s only points league. 10 teams. 20 hitter rosters. Who are some favorite boppers in the middle / late rounds to target? Nelson Velazquez’s of the world already going off the board.

1:07

Paul Sporer: Rizzo, Melendez, Kerry Carpenter, Kepler, Chapman, Bryant, Rooker, Stanton, Raley, Wilyer Abreu, Colas, Vientos, Cowser/Kjerstad, Noda

1:07

Insert Witty Name Here: I went to the auction calculator and input my league settings which is just OBP instead of BA. And somehow Dansby was worth more than Gunnar even though Gunnar had projections all above Swanson. Any idea how that could happen?

1:09

Paul Sporer: What set of proj. did you use? Seems weird

1:10

Mojo: Prefer Jasson or J Wood over next few years?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1271 – Sleeper Picks Across the Top 300 ADP

3/11/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

SLEEPERS

Top 100 ADP

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2024 Fantasy Hitter Breakouts – Sporer’s Picks

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “Breakout”. These are guys I like at their market rate and have them outperforming their draft cost. One of my inclusions is the best player of this generation and yet, he’s also the cheapest we’ve ever seen because of consistent health issues. Breakout, Sleeper, whatever your term is… these are the guys I like buying because they can deliver a strong profit.


Changelog

  • 3/9/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Top 100 Bargains

Top 100 Bargains
Rank Name Team Pos Change ADP $
1 Marcus Semien TEX 2B 31 $18
2 Mike Trout LAA OF 71 $19
3 Oneil Cruz PIT SS 78 $9

It’s hard to come up with bargain-type players in the very early rounds, but Jeff gave y’all four in the Top 50 so I wanted to come up with at least one. I don’t want to overstate things and pretend like Marcus Semien is disrespected, but I do feel like the modern-day Ironman could easily go 10-12 picks higher without incident and in fact does on occasion with a minimum pick of 20. That should be his average pick as far as I’m concerned. He has missed just 1 game in the last four full seasons, leading MLB in plate appearances for all four. He isn’t just some mediocre compiler, toting 124, 131, and 138 wRC+ totals in three of those four seasons while averaging 27 HR-13 SB-94 R-77 RBI per 600 PA. But sure, take CJ Abrams ahead of him.

Yes, it feels crazy to have Mike Trout on a breakout/sleeper list and yet here we are! I obviously understand the issues with his health, but he never actually performs poorly when on the field and so I’m more than willing to take the discounted price in hopes of him spiking a 130+ game season this year while enjoying the games I do get if he does wind up falling short again. He obviously looks good by every projection system and he’s healthy right now so let’s ride with one of the best players to ever lace ‘em up.

I haven’t been shy about my desire to simply wait on Oneil Cruz instead of paying the insane premium for Elly De La Cruz, something I even said in my Busts articles that featured EDLC. Cruz brings a bit of risk himself coming off a 9-game season thanks to a broken leg last year and has just 98 games of MLB experience in all, but his electric set of skills seems primed to breakthrough as long as his health cooperates, and I haven’t been afraid to buy in.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1269 – Starting Pitcher Preview Pt. 6 | The Final Countdown

3/8/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

  • Gavin Lux not the starting SS? (Betts named SS hours after the pod)

SP PREVIEW Pt. 6

AL Mixed Bag

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Catcher 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

We are in the midst of a Catcher Renaissance. I can’t remember the last time the position was this deep. Mainly because I have a terrible memory for instantly recalling such things, but also because I just don’t think we’ve seen this kind of quality at the position in years. It is led by a mix of under-30 superstars and veteran studs who remain dominant into their early- and mid-30s. Of course, a positional renaissance doesn’t come just from strength at the top. The expanding middle class is loaded with potential gems, many of whom will become the next wave of stars at the position. There were 12 catchers under age-30 who posted a 100 or better wRC+ last year and 15 in that age range (with a lot of overlap, of course) who hit at least 13 HRs.

You can maneuver through the rankings and decide how you want to attack catcher. If you miss out on the studs, there is plenty of alluring backfill, especially for 1-C leagues. But even in 2-C leagues, I can easily identify at least 24 guys I’d gladly take 2 of meaning I’m golden in a 12-teamer and probably set up well even in a 15-teamer as many of those 24 will be taken in time to ensure I’m not picking over the last six for either of my options. I’d expect my catcher portfolio to be very diversified across my multiple leagues, especially compared to last year when I had 912 shares of Tyler Stephenson. OK, I didn’t play 912 leagues… who do you think I am, Justin Mason?!

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 6th, 2024

Thanks for coming out. Let me know if the March 20th Marathon works for you!

1:01

Paul Sporer: Helloooooo everyone, how’s it going?

1:01

Mike: 12 team roto league with keepers based on round drafted and yearly escalator.

1:01

Mike: would you draft and if so where? Shane Mac & Baz  12 team roto keeper league based on draft position and annual escalators for each year kept.

1:01

Paul Sporer: Do you have unlimited IL slots?

1:02

Rabbit ball: Do your feelings on rabbits or other one cat players change at all in a h2h context vs roto?

1:03

Paul Sporer: Not really, but I guess I can maybe use them more pointedly in H2H and perhaps work around their flaws a bit more maybe? Although I would be so angry to bench a Ruiz type the day he rips off 4 SBs. I just don’t like the player type, doesn’t fit my managing style

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Shortstop 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop is shaping up nicely this winter. Even cutting the guys who are added with the 5-game eligibility threshold we’re using, there are still a lot of interesting multi-eligible studs with major upside. The next wave is already making noise with some young risers carrying massive price tags despite some clear risk while a lot of the veterans come with stable floors. There is still some uncertainty at the position that I will address with updates throughout the rest of the winter.


Changelog

  • 3/6/2024 – José Caballero & Gavin Lux added, multiple ranking updates
  • 2/22/2024 – Xander Bogaerts, Matt McLain, Tim Anderson, Gio Urshela profile and ranking updates
  • 2/15/2024 – No ranking changes, but wanted to update the ADP info
  • 1/30/2024 – Vaughn Grissom boost & write-up, Corey Seager sports hernia surgery news
  • 1/9/2024 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1267 – Starting Pitcher Preview Pt. 5 | Oldheads, Volume Concerns, and Lottery Tickets

3/5/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

SP PREVIEW Pt. 5

(Rotowire OC ADP Data Since Feb 15th – 43 Drafts)

Grandpas

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