The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
Follow us on Twitter
2021 1B Preview
Read the rest of this entry »
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: Android | RSS
I love shopping in the middle and late rounds for pitching. It’s not that I won’t buy studs, I love doing that, too, but finding gems who greatly overperform their draft slot can be instrumental to winnings leagues. I’ve already started analyzing the pitching pool thanks to Justin’s #TooEarlyMocks and here’s a handful of guys I’ll be eyeing as later pickups, especially in any winter drafts I do as they’re all priced to buy right now.
John Means | Baltimore Orioles
Velocity gains didn’t net early results as he managed just a 10.13 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in first four starts. Excellent changeup from 2019 wasn’t there but he regained the feel and put up a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the final six starts (33 IP). The changeup had a 4.2 pitch value during that run and he maintained the velo boost. The home runs are still concerning with a 2.5 rate in 2020 and 1.6 for his career. If he can start keeping the ball in the yard more often, there’s some low-3.00s ERA potential here especially if the new velo and strikeout rate maintain.
2021 TOO EARLY MOCKS
The Closing Pool
2021 TOO EARLY MOCK HITTERS
The Catching Pool
Catchers Discussed: J.T. Realmuto, Salvador Perez, Christian Vazquez, Gary Sánchez, Austin Nola, Sean Murphy, Daulton Varsho, James McCann, Mitch Garver, Max Stassi, Joey Bart, Danny Jansen, Tyler Stephenson, Omar Narváez
Where is Hitter X Goin?
Favorite Post-200 Hitters
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!
Approximately 91 minutes of joyous analysis.
Justin is running his annual Too Early Mocks and the wonderful Smada has once again compiled the average draft data for our perusal. Check out my 11 interesting pitching prices, too.
Christian Yelich 10.9 ADP – I was very interested in seeing how much the superstar would fall on the heels of a disappointing 2020 and unfortunately the market hasn’t overreacted as I’d have loved to catch a huge discount. Instead, he was still a firm 1st rounder ranging from pick 7 to 13 (these were 15-team leagues) and with good reason. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest he’d have worked through his issues versus righties (1.068 OPS vL) in a full season as his .213 BABIP would’ve likely worked its way back to his career .354 while the 11-point jump in strikeout came in lieu of lower swinging strike and O-swing rates. I’m happily buying, even at this price.
Justin is running his annual Too Early Mocks and the wonderful Smada has once again compiled the average draft data for our perusal.
The Top 3 SPs: Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, Gerrit Cole – deGrom went 1 in one league and Cole went 4 in another, but otherwise they averaged 7.7, 9.2, and 10.3, respectively. It’s not that I’m against the hitters going top 6 (Betts, Acuña, Tatis, Trout, Soto, and Turner), but I don’t understand how the mega aces aren’t more often in the top 3. I feel like the community at large is pushing pitching up (and not just the NFBC ecosystem), but the best of the best still don’t go high enough as far as I’m concerned.
Dinelson Lamet 53.7 ADP – He was unquestionably excellent as he flipped his pitch mix to throw the slider 53% of the time and his fastball was the best we’ve ever seen it, but he’s still at best a two-pitch guy and ended the season with a biceps injury that cost him the playoffs. That said, his slot as the 19th starter off the board matches where I put him in my initial rankings. Short of developing a third pitch, my biggest questions are whether or not the fastball can remain a plus offering and if he can continue to keep the ball in the yard – those are no doubt related as the fastball improvements played a big role his 8% HR/FB rate.
2021 SP DISCUSSION
A couple weeks back I highlight a group of Out of Nowhere Hitters and gave some thoughts on how I view them for 2021. It’s time to take a look at some pitchers!
Note: this is not a complete list, there are definitely more than seven candidates so feel free to include yours in the comments and I’ll give my thoughts on them in a response.
Framber Valdez | Houston Astros
Valdez ranked just 22nd among Astros prospects coming into 2019 tabbed with a bullpen future due in large part to a two-pitch repertoire. A lack of viable starting options gave him an opportunity in 2020 and he took full advantage. After a mediocre debut against the Dodgers, he reeled off 41 innings of a 2.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 46 strikeouts and a 3-1 record. Back-to-back duds against the LA teams (8 ER in 7 IP at LAA, 5 ER in 5 IP at LAD) pushed his ERA to 4.08 but then he allowed just 2 ER in his final 13.3 innings to give him a season mark of 3.57 in 70.7 IP.
TOO EARLY MOCKS
First Round review
MY SP RANKS