Top 35 Shortstops for 2020
We knew coming into the season that shortstop was deep, but it even exceeded the expectations from the spring. Studs being studs, rookies coming through in a major way, development for several others, and of course the ball created an explosion at the position. Even more impressive is the fact that we have another wave of potential gems on the horizon.
Other 2020 Rankings:
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Top 35 SS for 2020
| RK | Player | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Story | The ultimate dream fantasy player: power, speed, and Coors |
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | Just keeps dominating; hit 6+ HR in each of the final 3 months |
| 3 | Trea Turner | Matched HR and fell just 8 SB shy of ’18 totals despite 171 fewer PA |
| 4 | Alex Bregman | SB evaporating as he becomes power force, but still just 26 y/o |
| 5 | Xander Bogaerts | Bregmanesque evolution w/12 SB in ’18-19 total after 10+ in ’15-17 |
| 6 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Spd will keep BABIP high, but .410 is unrealistic, endangering AVG |
| 7 | Adalberto Mondesi | Labrum surgery in Oct requires 5-6 mos of recovery; be careful |
| 8 | Jonathan Villar | Might’ve been best SS in ’19 when factoring SB value v. HR |
| 9 | Javier Báez | Didn’t regress nearly as much as expected; solid investment |
| 10 | Gleyber Torres | Had a solid .783 OPS, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 74 R v. non-Baltimore teams |
| 11 | Ketel Marte | Hinted at pwr in ’18 w/.177 ISO; has raw speed for more SBs if he chooses |
| 12 | Tim Anderson | Injury undercut special yr, but still led MLB w/.335 AVG |
| 13 | Bo Bichette | Bat soared in 46 gm sample, spd could follow (30 SB/600 PA in MiLB) |
| 14 | Manny Machado | Depth of position & sporadic SBs curb his value a bit |
| 15 | Marcus Semien | Sharpened plate approach brought ’16 pwr back and then some |
| 16 | Carlos Correa | 3 seasons of 110 gms or fewer dampens outlook w/this much depth |
| 17 | Jorge Polanco | AVG & R investment; has spd for more SBs, but must fix 62% SB rate |
| 18 | Corey Seager | Frustrating, but still wouldn’t be surprised by .310/35/110 season |
| 19 | Gavin Lux | Brilliant .347 AVG/26 HR/10 SB in AA/AAA will fuel 2020 hype |
| 20 | Scott Kingery | Cheaper & older version of FTJ; shows FTJ outlook w/lower BABIP |
| 21 | Kevin Newman | Quietly dropped a .308 AVG/12 HR/16 SB yr & landed atop PIT lineup |
| 22 | Elvis Andrus | Spd (31 SB) saved punchless bat to finish 12th among SS |
| 23 | Amed Rosario | CS could stifle chances, but .804 OPS/.319 AVG in 2H is promising |
| 24 | Jean Segura | Only 10 SB after 20+ for 6 yrs, but spd didn’t fall that much |
| 25 | Garrett Hampson | Massive flop thru 5 mos. before winning lgs in Sept: .318/5 HR/9 SB |
| 26 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Has 606 MLB PA now: 31 HR-85 RBI-82 R-7 SB-.279 AVG |
| 27 | Paul DeJong | 1.010 OPS in April; just .701 OPS & .206 AVG from May 1st on |
| 28 | Didi Gregorius | .270-25-5 just doesn’t go that far anymore; FA this offseason, too |
| 29 | Willy Adames | Volatility plagued yr (2 sub-.600 OPS mos; 3 at .800+); just 24 next yr |
| 30 | Jon Berti | Late-bloomer (30 y/o) has legit spd; should have PT w/MIA, too |
| 31 | Nick Senzel | Monitor labrum recovery, but this is a 20/20 bat w/some health |
| 32 | Nick Ahmed | Small pwr gains last 3 yrs, but still can’t hit vRH (career .624 OPS) |
| 33 | Niko Goodrum | B2B double-doubles, but poor team & AVG stunt upside |
| 34 | Nico Hoerner | Flashed strong bat-to-ball skill (13% K) & bouncy ball added pop |
| 35 | Luis Urías | Ball aided MiLB pwr jump (.285 ISO), but couldn’t bring it to MLB (.102) |
Honorable Mentions: Andrelton Simmons, Jurickson Profar, Dansby Swanson, Brendan Rodgers, Royce Lewis, Carter Kieboom, Wander Franco, Andrés Giménez, Hanser Alberto, Orlando Arcia, Freddy Galvis, Cole Tucker, Josh VanMeter
Holy smokes Semien at 15? Wow what a deep position group.
I know and I’m a huge Semien fan, so I feel like I’m gonna be a bit higher than some others. Maybe put him over Bichette, but I’m betting on Bichette’s big speed coming through next year. Not sure I see anyone else he *must* be over.
Bichette actually has average to below average peak speed. Not that it means a lot when stealing bases, but still.
Ya obv referring to minor league SB track record, as I did in the comment
Indeed! Semien might even get a boost depending on the context of your league’s scoring. For example, in my points league he was the 2nd top scoring SS (801) behind Bregman (813.5) and 3rd place Bogaerts was a distant 781 points. He was the 4th overall hitter.
What surprised me most about him this year was his plate discipline as far as it appeared in BB and K numbers. Everything about his XBH looks sustainable and he even has room to grow in steals, but the latter is more doubtful as a player ages and I would not be surprised for some regression after a career season, especially in batting average.
He’ll come back down to earth next year. Look at his OPS+ each year and note how huge an outlier this was.
holy crap the depth!!!! Corey Seager is 18th and I can’t argue with where he falls in the ranking
He is obviously a great value there.
What makes Nick Senzel eligible at SS? Thanks
Also Marte – 11 G and 5 GS. That’ll work for Yahoo standard leagues but mot much else if I’m not mistaken. Kingery’s 18 and 12 won’t make it in some formats either.
So take it upon yourself to do some research and skip over the guys who aren’t eligible for you. I’d rather these lists be more inclusive than less.
I can’t speak for Anon. For myself, I wasn’t trying to poke at Paul. Since Senzel didn’t play any SS this season, I was thinking maybe he was projected to be Cincy’s starting SS next season (I hadn’t seen anything on the subject).
Iglesias is a free agent, though the Reds still have Galvis under contract. Would probably be more likely to see him at short and Senzel at second.
Thanks Babbo
Especially odd as he’s not on the 2B list despite playing there once this season (never played SS) and he played 2B in AAA since the Reds moved him off 3B because of Suarez. I’m pretty sure he played SS for Tennessee, but I don’t think he even played SS in the high minors.
Senzel was a flat out goof. My bad on that. I make the list by doing a first run from memory then add the missed ones by looking at guys with at least 20 games as SS. The guys under 20 came from memory and I should’ve double-checked em. Senzel won’t be SS anywhere, but at least Marte and Kingery will be in some formats.
OK, thanks Paul.
Two years ago Correa and Seager were both first-round, top 10 overall picks in my leagues. And they’re both still only 25 years old!
25 doesn’t mean what it used to mean. Those guys have a lot of professional experience. We still like to think that 25 y/o are in their second pro season and learning the league and that is not the case.
If Correa could play an entire season, he would be between #1 and #3. His limited numbers this year were unmatched at SS. But he’s made of glass / not committed to staying healthy.
He has not outperformed those other SS over his career on a per game basis. Have a look at 2018. No reason to get too excited about half a season. He has always had the ability to put together a good streak – he has never sustained one over a season though.
ridiculously high evaluation of Mondesi
Was on a massive SB pace before injury at a time when SBs can’t be more valuable
In pts they are nothing. That feels like a very NFBC comment. In that format, you can’t stream SB and it is a category, but in the rest of the world you don’t need to chase them #billyHamilton
But this is rankings for fantasy. Conventional fantasy is 5×5, it is like you are being obtuse on purpose.
The shoulder is a concern, but I’d say the argument would be to have him higher, not lower. Over his last 700 PA he has had 23 Hrs and 77 sbs 270 average and 100ish Rbis (iirc he was leading the AL in rbis when he got hurt somehow). That is a top 5 player overall. He hasn’t even had what would be considered a high babip for his speed. The issue I have personally with players such as Mondesi is I end up winning steals by too much, and that value could of been placed elsewhere since winning by 30 steals, or 1 steal is the same.
“in the rest of the world”
I don’t play NFBC. I play in 4 leagues, all with different formats, but 3 of them use SB.
can’t steal first and can’t steal anything if you have a broke shoulder
Story had a better season last year (with a handful more games) and now he’s the number 1 fantasy SS? I wanted to sell high last summer, but didn’t love the offers, I’m definitely selling high this summer.
Did he really have a better season last yr, though? Seems basically the same. 23 more R, 23 fewer RBI, 2 fewer HR, 4 fewer SB in 21 fewer games… he was #2 SS on the Auction Calculator both seasons. I mean if you can greatly improve your team, then by all means sell, but I’m not sure I understand the inclination to actively sell him
Repeating what people thought was not repeatable is pretty good. If you can get Lindor plus then do it!
Dansby Swanson, he of an 801 OPS out of the #2 spot in nearly 300 ABs in a loaded lineup, outside of the top 35??? Well, that’s…something. I guess we’re assuming he’ll randomly get hurt with a bad step on a base like he did last year to bring his overall numbers down? He was at 798 overall on the year prior to sub-575 months in Aug./Sept. coming back from that injury.
I wouldn’t want him on my starting roster. He is Addison Russell in terms of skills and situation.
Swanson had a breakout obscured by bad luck and an injury. Swanson’s .346 xWOBA was 3rd amongst all SS’s (min 350 PA), bettered only by Bogaerts and Semien. He’s has 10 SB’s in each of the last two seasons and has the benefit of a good park & lineup, so there’s value to be had for cheap given his 268 avg ADP.
Well… As you state, he performed way, way, WAAAAY out of draftable range… before a 2-month-long (admittedly post injury) slump.
Beyond that, that pre-slump .801 OPS would have placed him only 12th overall among all FG-qualified SS (caveat: not necessarily fantasy qualified) and it would have been quite the improvement over his .699 in 2018 and that he never cracked .800 in the high minors (despite getting close in his 45 AAA PA in 2017).
2019 SS: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,6,11,12,13,21,-1,34,35,40,41,-1,23,37,38,39,50,61,-1,111,-1,203,199,58&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=16,d
Swanson: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=18314&position=SS
And by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, he doesn’t seem to get much of a “loaded lineup” bump over his end-of-season-OPS peers when PA are adjusted. Per 600 PA, here’s how they pan out:
Name PA HR R RBI SB
Amed Rosario 600 14 69 66 17
Nick Ahmed 600 18 76 79 8
Dansby Swanson 600 19 85 72 11
Jean Segura 600 12 77 58 10
Willy Adames 600 21 71 53 4
There is a small edge in R, but not enough for me to go out and say he must absolutely be placed comparably or higher than any of them. Given that he clearly suffered from the injury bug for an extended period, I think putting him below all of them — Ahmed comes in at 32 — is fair. Adjusting to equivalent PA, those two have comparable BA, SB and HR, Ahmed edges RBI and Swanson edges R.
I can see a fair argument that Swanson might deserve a slot in the 30-35 range, but it’s not egregious. I can definitely respect his ‘honorable mention’ status.
Remember when SS was a thin position. Schnikes.
SS used to play defense too. Things have changed.
Easily deepest position in baseball
Machado is a reserve SS in 12 team league lmao. so deep
crazy how he was a fringe first rounder to a decent starter in shallow leagues
He is a great value IMO. The upside is obvious and at his ADP he will be attractive.
Will it be? We will have to wait and see, of course, but I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised if his name value gets him an ADP well above projected-value rank. If his ADP is comparable, however, I can see him being a pretty good “HOF-talent player coming off relative down year” sleeper.
Mondesi being the #8 shortstop shows how standard 5×5 formats needs to modernize to reflect the changes going on the field. That’s a huge gap in value between Mondesi the fantasy player and Mondesi the actual player
What do you mean? fantasy baseball never reflects real baseball. I might agree with your point but I am not sure what it is.
Or we can not have it reflect the modern game? Why?
Not concerned about Timmy’s sky high BABIP? ~20 SB from him offsets that?
I don’t think anyone should count on a .399 BABIP, but he is clearly improving as a hitter. He pulled the ball less this past season while using more of the field and had less soft contact. His counting stats should also improve going forward with an improving White Sox lineup.
He is trending up. Growth could offset some of that luck.
Paul, great spot of VSiN. Seeing didi Gregorious this low And gleybar Torres being a top 10, what are your thoughts on how the Yankees have aligned their playoff roster? Do you agree with their lineup or would you have slid gleybar over to SS and if so how do you put the rest of the infield together?
that’s what she said
I was going to say “What, no J.P. Crawford, not even in the top 35??”
But then I read the top 35 eligible players list… wow.
Not even honorable mention, though? At least he’s eligible in most formats and presumably with a job.
I had the same reaction. A big part is that the position is legitimately deep (Zen koan DEEP). For his own part, though, he didn’t finish the season well and ended up at the bottom-end of his projections despite his start.
While I’m personally still a fan of his future and potential — especially of his on-the-field value relative to Fantasy
Bold move to have Story first. Cool to see poeple come around. I was as skeptical as anyone but the production is consistently great. That said, I’ll take Lindor. Its scary how good he was coming back mid-season from that injury.
I think it would be crazy to take Turner over Bregman.
I think you are way too low on Baez. 40 HR and a good average is within reach in a full season – so is 20 SB. Only a few guys offer his ceiling and floor (ranked # 1 and 2). People have been predicting him to fall apart for years now and it never happens – at some point that is called a high floor. I’d rather take a chance on him than Tatis who is pretty similar potentially. I would rather worry about the young guy.
I think ppl really only predicted a Baez fall off this year. I don’t think it’s been years.
That is not true. Everyone always says he can’t hit for average next year and then he does. His own team wouldn’t even give him the starting SS gig and they hit him 8th for years. Prior to 2018 people said he couldn’t make his lack of plate discipline work – surely you remember that. 2019 was the same set of doubts as previous years. I remember I couldn’t trade him for anything prior to 2018 yet he always had respectable numbers and the high end pedigree. In any case, this disagreement doesn’t add up to anything. Thanks for the rankings.
I like the list Paul, nice work. Hard to make these right after the season and anticipate growth or regression from young players like Tatis, Lux, and Urias. I expect Tatis’ BABIP to come down some, but not a ton, especially as he continues to bulk, adjust, and barrel. The xwOBA – wOBA and other xstat splits are concerning, but he’s probably going to be a perennial outlier there similar to BABIP given his higher K rate.
Couple of minor things….Even though he’s in the honorable mentions and not a centerpiece, I’m a little surprised that you think Franco will be relevant in 2020. If he starts the year in AA and rakes early, I’m with you 100%. I would probably throw Dansby into the 20’s at a minimum given his huge leap this year and that counting stat lineup. Another lesson or two with Uncle Chipper might make him a top 15 guy.
Nice list but I’m not ready to go all in on Villar, Marte, or (especially) Anderson like this. I’d bump them each down a couple slots.
That’s a remarkable collapse in value for Machado. Wow.
How much money was spent between Machado and Harper? I don’t see how every article isn’t about that. Hype sells better than reality.
Difference is Harper was worth every dollar (this year).
It’s year 1 of those deals, writing a bunch of articles pretending those deals are failures would just be setting yourself up to look foolish.
Well in the San Diego Star Tribune on Sep 29, there was this article “Manny Machado reflects on his disappointing first season with Padres, addresses whether he gave up”
In the Kevin Acee piece, it is somewhat shocking that this quote “Those questions included one about the belief, held by several people in the organization, that Machado lost interest when the Padres’ games lost meaning.” has not been a bigger issue. I mean, to essentially question the character of the $300m man in year 1 of a 10 yr deal is wild to me and should be a much bigger story.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2019-09-29/padres-manny-machado-disappointing-first-season-mlb
I’m just referring to fantasy value. Guessing he’s drafted much earlier than this and probably still delivers a little value next year. Imagine grabbing him on waivers in a ten team league after being a second rounder last year LOL
I’m going to share this list with my fellow Mariners’ fans who our encouraged about J.P. Crawford’s season and future. The bar is SO high for shortstops in this era.
Crawford wouldn’t be clearing bars of the previous era either. That juiced ball benefits everyone.
After listing 35 players are the others really “Honorable Mention” as compared to “Also playing SS in the Majors.”
Seeing Machado at 14 was a shock but I can’t disagree with it. This position is more insane than I realized.
I understand how insane Tatis’s season was this year. I am a Padres fan even, but no way I am touching him at w.e draft position that ranking entails. That babip was insane. And quality of contact stats dislike him even more. He evened out a tad toward the end of the season, but when you account for his speed via savant his expected line was .255/345/473, now compare that to his actual line 317/404/590. He also plays in a very neutral hitters park. With the rankings I could see him getting pushed towards a top 15-20 adp and no way in hell I am touching him at that price.
Now his stolen bases offset some of that regression, but not nearly enough to justify drafting him over someone at a close adp.
Look what Mondesi did with nowhere near that expected slash, so if Tatis is “only” at that level, he’s 25 HR/30 SB with ease.
Gurriel is likely to be OF only in most leagues in 2020 & definitely not eligible at SS.
Wow what a crazy deep position