2020 First Base Rankings
First base can dry up quickly if you’re not paying attention, but I do feel better about the position than I did at this time a year ago. I’m intrigued by that tier starting with McMahon as several of those guys could pay large dividends. Does McMahon himself take a step? Will Santana be a power/speed stud again? How do Dozier, Gurriel, and Canha follow up their breakout seasons? I don’t mind playing in that tier, but I don’t want my starting 1B coming from there.
The blue bar starts a new tier.
If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
1B Rankings for 2020
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
How do you guys handle ranking players that don’t have eligibility at a position but will be playing it primarily throughout the season and will get eligibility very quickly? For this list thinking of a guy like Sano
Yeah. I’m particularly curious to know where Paul would rank Sano on this list.
One minor point: Gallo played no games at 1B last year.
My bad. Thought I got all the non qualifiers out. I’ll remove him later
Joey Gallo is only on this list because of his time in 2018 at 1B, right? Or is he expected to play there again in 2020?
Just a mistake. I blacked him out.
Crazy how thin 1B has become in this age of uber do-everything players.
Did Jose Abreu tell you to draft Mallex Smith?!! Joking aside, would love to hear why you’re so low on him, particularly with the better supporting cast around him. Thanks!
lolololol, I’m not anti-Abreu! I guess I’m a bit lower on him, but I definitely like him generally speaking.
Per Zips or steamer projections, Muncy is slated to hit 29 HRs with an average in the .240s or .250s. That doesn’t seem great for a guy who you have as #3. Do you think there is an upside not captured by the projections?
Yeah, I see Muncy more at the bottom of that tier than the top.
OK, but The BAT and ATC see him more favorably.
.250-30-90-90 with triple eligibility is really nice and I see upside of .265-40-100-100. I think Goldy and Rizzo are the only ones in that tier with a major stat edge on him with their AVG upside, but it’s counterbalanced by being eligible at 1B-2B-3B, an underrated factor I love for Muncy.
That’s an interesting argument for a 1B ranking. I could see that in your overall rankings, especially as 2B is weak, but strictly pertaining to your ranks of 1B, I don’t believe it should
why are you considering his value as a 2b when ranking him as a 1b?
Because it’s part of the value package when I draft him.
so, while i’m sure this will come across as picking nits, when you make a “top 1b” post, you’re actually making a “top players who have 1b eligbility” post ?
There’s a big difference there, because I don’t think many people would argue that Muncy is the #3 first baseman off the board.
Ya it does come across as nitpicky, what’s the distinction? Isn’t any fantasy top whatever list about the players with eligibility at that position? I’m not sure I follow what you’re getting at, I guess.
The distinction is that when I look at lists like this, I’m using them to compare relative values of first basemen, not relative values of guys who have that eligibility.
So if you’re ranking someone higher because they have eligibility at somewhere other than first, I no longer have a list of relative values for first basemen.
Paul, in fantasy ball most of us will employ a guy like Muncy at our weakest position. This year 3B looks weaker than 1B, and 2B seems weaker still than 1B. Multi-position flexibility is valuable for sure, but is likely worth no more than $2 or $3.
We love your work, man. But it’s just so hard to be right all of the time, unless one is our president. (My fingers are cramping and my tongue is trying to choke me … as I write those words … aughh!)
i really like muncy but now way should he be that high. multi-position eligbility has never been worth less than the current state of the game. ill take him at 70 all day, however, no way would i take him over alonso or rizzo
I disagree with this. Position-scarcity is arguably at an all-time low because power sources can be found all over the diamond. You don’t *need* to play your SS-eligible player at SS, your 2B-eligible player at 2B, etc. (catcher being the obvious exception). Players with eligibility at many positions give tremendous roster flexibility both during the draft and season. While Muncy may not provide aggregate numbers that compete with some of the players below him, the benefit to owning him means that you won’t *need* to fill an opening at 2B with a 2B-eligible player. Muncy’s value means you might be able to install your best bench bat at 1B and move Muncy over, providing far more value than a waiver acquisition.
yep I do see the value in this and thats how i used him last (and hopefully this!) year. him/DJ/mcneil are valuable for that aspect, i try to have atleast one of them on my roster, maybe even two
I wouldn’t take him over Alonso (and I’m a Muncy owner on a cheap keeper contract), but I’m not sure which I’d go for vs. Rizzo. Muncy’s going to be in a sick lineup this year, which means the counting stats like Runs and RBIs that often get overlooked could be pretty huge. Rizzo on the flip side feels like he’s on the decline, and the lineup isn’t nearly as scary. Muncy will hit more HRs, Rizzo will have a higher average. It’s a tough choice.
“multi-position eligbility has never been worth less than the current state of the game”
This is the dumbest statement I’ve read in awhile.
Even if those turn out to be his legit stats, he also adds a ton of walks, multi-positional eligibility, and great defense
Quibbling over guys at the bottom of the list definitely sucks, but I think I’d take Pujols over at least a few guys at the bottom. The guy is going to play and even with only 545 PA and 23 dingers last year, he still drove in 93. (Fun Pujols factoid: He has stolen at least 1 base in every single season of his career, all 19 seasons. With 1 more this year he would move into the top 20 all-time on the incredibly random/arbitrary/meaningless leaderboard for “Most seasons with at least 1 SB”)
Love the Muncy rating. But everyone else should keep underrating him though as I snag him in the 6th round
a 20 game minimum knocks out McMahon in a couple of my leagues
Which list is Eno going to appear on this year?
Stay tuned!
Wow, this list is long. When Logan Morrison, Greg Bird and Tyler White show up, you know you’re at the Hail Mary part of the list.
You are super low on Abreu. That guy is a professional hitter.
Basically just have him near the bottom of his tier, he’s going right around the other guys in that group. Definitely not super low on him.
As a player I like H. Dozier a little better than he’s ranked here, mostly bc of his 3B eligibility, but I suspect he’ll be a nice underrated pickup in deeper leagues like last year.
On Muncy, Statcast clearly thinks MM is a very good bat: His 2019 marks were: .269 xBA, .522 xSLG, .385 xwOBA (20th among qualified). In 2018 they were: .259 xBA, .536 xSLG, .394 xwOBA (6th among qualified). The batting averages are obviously a bit lame, but the overall hitting profile is quite strong, and the run scoring environment is set up nicely.
The interesting part to me is the playing time. 481 PA in 2018, 589 PA in 2019. Is there untapped ceiling w/ the counting stats if he gets 650-700 PA like must “full timers” get? Why isn’t he playing full time? It’s not the splits; he was 135 wRC+ against LHP last year, and 134 wRC+ against RHP. Is it the glove? The baserunning?
It’s being on the Dodgers. They have a very deep team and like to play their reserves regularly,
Sorry, I didn’t see this comment from maguro before replying… yep, it’s just being on the dang Dodgers. That said, Muncy *could* feasibly still catch a 600+ PA season at some point bc of his positional flexibility.
The glove actually improved last year, it’s just Dodgeritis as Nick Pollack calls it.
Sano seems like an unintended omission, no?
I’m skeptical about Edwin Encarnacion’s playing time. They have Grandal who they’ll want to 1B or DH on some of his off days. One of Zach Collins or Mercedes is likely to make the roster out of camp and both are primary DHs. Plus Andrew Vaughn is knocking on the door.
Unlikely they will bench encarnacion or abreu for Grandal… it is more likely that grandal plays less that usual.
I’d love to see some form of these rankings with defensive stats considered. Maybe it’s a small market but 1b and C become super valuable in put out and assists leagues
Just joining the crowd on the Muncy ranking. I like him a lot but I would probably take 10 guys you have below him first. Really, I think he and EE and pretty comparable (and all the projections seem to roughly agree).
Also I’m skeptical of Voit playing every day (though the Judge/Stanton injuries help a bit). Would absolutely be looking at LeMahieu over him – he’s guaranteed to play every day at least and adds speed.
I’d be tempted to say that Bellinger is in his own tier. Even if you expect some regression from 2019 (as you should), the speed makes him a clear #1.
I’d be careful not to overrate the Bellinger SBs. He definitely has the speed to get ’em, but those teens SB counts can dry up without warning from premium middle of the order hitters and that’s why I won’t make him a separate tier.
Playing time risk on Voit seems high, given all of the bats that NYY has. I’d move him below similarly skilled hitters with secure jobs… about 5 spots.
That’s fair, though with Judge and Stanton ALREADY hurt, I’m not particularly worried about it. Voit is one of my big breakout picks so I put him up there.
Sporer, I love your pitcher analysis and in general I wouldn’t chime in to argue with you. Except about Flaherty being too low, ha. But you get a pass. Muncy above Alonso and Olson is just…. stahp. No. That’s like putting ketchup on a hot dog.
I don’t mind disagreement, but I’d need an actual case behind it
Olson and Alonso both good bets for 40/100 with decent avg. and safer plays at that position for the production you stereotypically look for at 1st. Muncy offers positional flexibility but if you’re ranking him for overall production I think you have to fade him beneath those prolific power guys. While I’m arguing I also personally like Canha higher by almost an entire tier.
Evan White checks in for SEA at #36!! Highest-ranking Mariner on position lists so far!
I have a feeling this is their year.
I think he’s a real sneak tip pickup as he seems to be backup C and could get C eligibility relatively early into the season
Wait, I think you’re talking about Nola. I haven’t seen/ heard anything about White playing catcher…
I am talking about Nola… not sure why I mixed that up
Tsusugo? The Rays aren’t paying him 15M to be a shortsided platoon.
Miguel Cabrera below Yandy D, and with Brandon F-ing Belt and Mitch Moreland!!! The world has truned into a cold, cold place.