Top 30 First Basemen for 2020
First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.
One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.
Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.
—
2020 Top 30 First Basemen
| Rk | Player | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freddie Freeman | One of the most consistent superstars in the game |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | Better than Freef this yr, but ’19 is first over .270 AVG |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | Utterly insane rookie season; AVG could regress but 40-HR lock |
| 4 | Paul Goldschmidt | Down season was still pretty useful; could see ’20 rebound |
| 5 | Max Muncy | Fully backed his breakout & still has triple elig. (1B/2B/3B) |
| 6 | Anthony Rizzo | Excellent K/BB keeps AVG floor very high |
| 7 | Matt Olson | Hamate didn’t hamper pwr; could’ve hit 40 HR w/full season |
| 8 | Josh Bell | Impressive 116 RBI/94 R despite being stuck on PIT |
| 9 | Joey Gallo | Can he keep AVG gains w/38% K & .368 BABIP? — ed. note: OF-only in ’20 |
| 10 | DJ LeMahieu | Put up legit 1B numbers, but also quals at 2B and 3B |
| 11 | Luke Voit | .288/.389/.531, 34 HR, 91 R & RBI in 614 PA since ’18 |
| 12 | Carlos Santana | Deserved better AVG in previous yrs; love him even at age-34 |
| 13 | Jose Abreu | Quietly back on track after small ’18 dip; FA this winter |
| 14 | Rhys Hoskins | Still think he can hit 40 HR, but has to fall below comparables |
| 15 | Edwin Encarnación | Keeps crushing thru his mid-30s; has $20mil team option |
| 16 | Ryan McMahon | Has rallied w/.859 OPS, 13 HR, 4 SB since July 1st |
| 17 | Hunter Dozier | Could wind up with .290/30/90 in breakout season |
| 18 | Yuli Gurriel | Difficult to price insane pwr breakout for 36-year old |
| 19 | Trey Mancini | Pwr is consistent, BABIP drives bottom line; 1B/OF elig. |
| 20 | Christian Walker | Seas. pace of .760 OPS, 27 HR, 8 SB even if you lop off big April |
| 21 | Eric Hosmer | Boringly useful, espec. If you’re pwr-heavy elsewhere on roster |
| 22 | Joey Votto | So sad to type this… poor man’s Eric Hosmer!? |
| 23 | Joc Pederson | Big pop, but capped PT curbs R/RBI; has 1B/OF elig. |
| 24 | Garrett Cooper | Strong AVG covers mediocre pwr output, plus has OF elig. |
| 25 | Nate Lowe | Performed every time he was up, but TB rarely guarantees PT |
| 26 | Michael Chavis | Solid pwr option will have 1B/2B eligibility |
| 27 | Renato Núñez | Known lefty-destroyer had capable season vR to drive 30 HR yr |
| 28 | Danny Santana | Dig the pwr/spd, but 30% K & 4% BB rates are tough to swallow |
| 29 | Mark Canha | Will the 31-year old have a full-time role next year? |
| 30 | Daniel Murphy | Coors didn’t help as expected, health could foster ’20 rebound |
Honorable Mentions: C.J. Cron, Daniel Vogelbach, Eric Thames, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Belt, Niko Goodrum, Ian Desmond, Justin Smoak, Jay Bruce, Yandy Diaz, Howie Kendrick, Jesus Aguilar
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Gallo will be OF only next year.
Oh dang, I just assumed and that’s what I get for assuming
Give me every single one of the Hoskins shares if that’s where he ends up (not saying you’re wrong, but I’m buying at that price big time)
I’d agree if he was going to be discounted, but in Justin’s #TooEarlyMock drafts, he was the 7th 1B
Where would you put Nelson Cruz? I know he’s not eligible but for many players the choice will be Cruz or one of these guys in a Util slot. “Top 4 DHs for 2020” is an article no one will read anyway.
Just above Bell. Or maybe where Gallo is bc as a commenter alerted me, Gallo is OF only next year.
In a 7×7 roto league, with OPS and K’s as the extra cats, who makes the biggest gains/losses? Seems like adding strikeouts would mean Alonzo would lose a bit of ground and Rizzo would gain some, but beyond that….?
Wouldn’t that be 6×6
I think he’s say OPS and Ks are added for hitters. And yeah I agree Vic, moves are minimal, a space here and there. Alonso still gets the OPS boost offset the Ks pain.
1 thing Bellinger gives you over Freeman is more stolen bases. Bellinger been double digit steals each of his first 3 years…. Think it’s a 1 and 1a there with those 2. I’d prefer Bellinger I think due to the OF eligibility for daily leagues which can help out a lot…
Agree on the 1/1a situation and I do love the extra eligibility.
So what is the games played criteria you are using? McMahon for example only has 16 games at 1B and there is a good chance he won’t make it to 20.
I was pulling names off Razzball’s Player Rater and foolishly didn’t double check some of the names, including Gallo & McMahon. My bad. https://razzball.com/playerrater
You just don’t believe in Danny Santana? I own him and Walker in a keeper at the same $10 price and Santana seems like a potential keeper and Walker doesn’t by this year’s stats but your rankings say the opposite
Isn’t Cody Bellinger going to play in the OF next year? Source : https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-center-field-cody-bellingers-best-position/
He’ll still be eligible at first
Is there a link where the public can see the results of the #TooEarlyMock drafts you and Justin are doing?
Belt’s gonna hit 30 HRs next year. This will be the year.
Just needs to be traded to the Rockies or Yankees. He’s hit ~double the HRs on the road than at home.
Crossing my fingers my competitors still rate Goldschmidt this highly heading into Spring Training next year.
Thank you, Paul. I think you are linking to the wrong Jose Abreu. Just in case other people click on it, I’ll put the correct one below:
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15676&position=1B
LeMathieu – I’m confused about his ranking. I understand he’s been great this year, but he’s been 20 runs below average for his career. I’m assuming that going forward, he’s more that ~100 RC+ player for his career rather than the 136 RC+ player from this year. Paul, you’re assuming this year’s improvements are sustainable?