Steamer vs NFBC 2020 – Runs Scored Bargains

Our undervalued player series continues now with the final offensive scoring category for 2020 – Runs Scored.

For those of you that are new to this series – in each article, we uncover potential undervalued players by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. So far I have gone through undervalued speedsters, power bats, outstanding batting average players as well as possible RBI Bargains.

In 2019, there were 60 players who scored at least 85 runs. There were 41 players who exceeded the 95 runs threshold, and 20 hitters scored at least 105. Four players managed to eclipse the lofty 120 runs plateau. Leading the majors were a pair of Red Sox – Mookie Betts (135) and Rafael Devers (129). Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves followed them with 127 runs.

Once again, just as in runs batted in, prospective projections are far more conservative than the final season long distribution. Steamer only projects one player – Mike Trout – to score more than 120 runs. Only four additional players are projected to score over 110 runs (Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich and George Springer).

Teams that win fantasy leagues are often highly correlated with the runs scored category. Finding a few undervalued players that can help pad your fantasy team’s run totals is a worthwhile exercise. For this year’s analysis, I will focus on all players with a Steamer projection of at least 85 runs. This should give us several helpful players.

For today’s draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of all non-auction leagues from February 14, 2020 to present). 79 leagues in total were observed.

Below are the players selected within the top 30 ADP, who also have a Steamer projection of at least 85 runs scored:

Every single hitter in the first and second rounds makes the above list with a projected R total of at least 85. It is the only scoring category in which that occurs. In fact, everyone other than Gleyber Torres (who is currently going at the end of the 2^nd round), has a projection of at least 90 runs.

Below are the remaining players in the draft pool with a Steamer projection of at least 85 runs scored:

The players above are ordered by their difference in Steamer Hitter Rank versus ADP Hitter Rank. Differences highlighted in GREEN are the players who are going later than their Steamer values indicate that they should; differences in RED show the overvalued players.

Similar to the runs batted in exhibit – the above distribution is skewed towards the undervalued players. At the rightmost column (the difference), you can visually see that there are more green players than red ones. The magnitude of the (projected) profitable players outweighs the downside of the unprofitable ones. A fair number of high runs batters are being priced by the market 30 hitters+ later than what projections would indicate. This of course differs from stolen bases, where you need to pay a premium for the majority of impact SB hitters.

Next, let’s look at the distribution of high runs scored by round:

You can clearly see a sharp decline in the number of high runs players after round seven (pick 105). Prior to that, the high runs players are fairly distributed in rounds three to six.

There are only four high runs players available after roughly pick 100 –Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Eaton and Khris Davis. Two of them are being drafted after about pick 250 (Choo at 246, Votto at 267). Essentially, you need to have enough runs scored early on in your drafts, as it becomes increasingly hard to correct a deficiency thereafter. Catching up in this category is more difficult than you think.

Next – As this will be the final undervalued players article for offensive categories, let’s take some stock. Before we talk about a few specific players – here is a list of all undervalued batters who have appeared in this series at least three times.

These 20 players are excellent targets to have in your fantasy drafts. They are well above average players in at least three categories, and at the same time are available in drafts at a discount.

At the very top of this list is Nelson Cruz. Cruz is being drafted 40 hitters later than where Steamer’s projections indicate that he should. Part of his discount comes from the fact that he is an older player, but part of it comes from Cruz’s positional eligibility; he only qualifies as a DH/Utility hitter.

Eddie Rosario (Steamer Hitter Rank: 31, ADP Hitter Rank: 64, Overall ADP: 93)

We have already spoken about Rosario in this series, but his name is worth mentioning once again. Eddie Rosario and Anthony Rizzo are the only other two four-category high-end contributors aside from Nelson Cruz. Steamer projects Rosario to be over a two-round player discount.

For Rosario’s fifth category (steals) – Steamer projects five steals. Eddie has stolen at least 8 bases in three of the past five seasons. It is the Twins who have recently given him the red light. In his limited stolen base attempts over the past two seasons, he has a 79% success rate. All it might take for Rosario to become a complete five-category contributor is management’s decision to run some more.

Not only does Rosario have one of the largest ADP to Hitter rank differentials, but he can be found towards the top of the overall player pool. A 30-player bargain near player 100, is an even better value proposition that one found at player #200, etc.

It still amazes me that even after posting what was arguably his best season yet (.276, 32 HR, 109 RBI) – his ADP is lower than what it was last year! Last year he was also a bargain! Whatever the reason – fluky health issues, team roster construction, etc. – Rosario shouldn’t be slept on in 2020 drafts.

The Minnesota Twins

It seems that the undervalued high runs scored hitters are dominated by … Minnesota Twins!

Not only are Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario among the most undervalued high runs scoring batters, but so are … Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson and Max Kepler.

In putting together the ATC projections, I get to see many different projections for players. Sometimes they agree with each other, and sometimes they are all over the place. ATC finds a historically fit middle ground between projections in all cases.

Polanco is what I refer to as a low variance player. Polanco is a player in which projections are in sync with one another. He is projected across the board for 17-20 HR, 6-7 SB, roughly a .280 BA, and slated to score approximately 90 runs. A low variance player is a safer player – a player that you should want to pay even more for at an auction. You should want to draft him even higher in a snake.

Polanco has a high line drive rate (~25%+), and a decent walk rate (8-9%). That will provide him with a high floor for getting on base. His heavy offensive team will also help him generate a significant amount of runs scored, and even RBI. Batting leadoff will allow him to amass plenty of counting stats, just as he did in 2019.

In 2019, Josh Donaldson parlayed a one-year contract gamble into a long-term signing, even though he is heading into his age 35 season. Donaldson hit 37 HRs with the Braves in ’19, knocking in 94 runs and scoring 96. His production was largely consistent between the first half and 2^nd half. There is no reason that Donaldson cannot keep up the same pace for another season.

Max Kepler had a career year in ’19. Some regression is due. Still, he is projected to be quite dangerous in power and in both of the run production categories in 2020.

I’m not sure why Twins hitters are frequently discounted this year, but don’t sleep on them during your drafts.

Adam Eaton (Steamer Hitter Rank: 90, ADP Hitter Rank: 126, Overall ADP: 205)

A quick word on Adam Eaton. Adam ranks as one of the best high runs scored bargains. He is being drafted (on average) 36 hitters later than Steamer’s implied recommendation.

The issue with Eaton is not his skill – it is entirely health. When on the field, Eaton is a full season 15/15 player who will score over 100 runs and hit for a high batting average. Last year’s .279 BA was the the lowest compiled since his sophomore season way back in 2013.

Eaton’s near 10% walk rate will further propel his high on-base percentage. If he stays healthy, he is a lock for 100 runs. I love Adam Eaton hitting in the 2-hole going into 2020. He will either have Trea Turner hitting ahead of him or directly behind him. Either circumstance will continue to prop up his fantasy baseball value (and real-life baseball value too).

Eaton managed to play a full season last year; he had over 550 ABs for the first time since 2016. At age 31, health will still be a concern – which is why the market is severely discounting him. I do believe that the National’s outfielder is a risk worth taking for the potential profit gain and for his potential (major) runs scored contribution.