Top 175 SP for 2020
Can you believe March is just two days away? Draft season is upon us! I’ve updated my rankings and added 50 starters since the last one came out in January. I’ll have another update in March with some notes on most of the entrants (I can’t promise I’ll have a tidbit on all 175 arms, but many will have a stat or note similar to this run of rankings).
As you know, I feel there are globs of talent throughout the SP rankings wherein a 20, even 30 spot difference isn’t as vast as it seems because we’re splitting hairs between very similar arms and yet even knowing that I still agonize over the slottings and move guys up or down 2-3 spots like crazy before posting a new set of ranks. You’ll see tiers set up by the blue bars and that indicates the beginning of a new tier.
Enough chatter, let’s get to the rankings and start discussing them in the comments below. Again, if you think #34 should #29, I’m less interested in that as I probably agree that they could be flipped. Let’s focus on the bigger splits, like if you feel #83 should be #45 or #27 should be #62, etc… Of course you can also just make comments or ask questions about a pitcher without relating it to their ranking. I’m open to discussing my thought process on any of the 175 pitchers.
In the March run, I’m probably going to rank about 70 and then separate the other 105 into specific groups (prospects, injury arms, K-heavy, etc…) since I think that has some use in addition to a 1-175 list.
Great stuff. What about Woj?
really bearish on Arrieta
Think Martinez at 38 is way high–no guarantees on either his health or whether he even starts for most of the year.
Four pitchers to consider:
Wade Miley – In 2018 Miley pitched for Milwaukee and Derek Johnson turned Miley from a number five SP to a #1. Through the first 5 months of the season (before he started tipping his pitches) Wade Miley was a top 25 pitcher in baseball last year (though clearly not the #1 pitcher on the Astros). Now he is back with Derek Johnson in Cincinnati. I expect big things (see Sonny Gray in 2019 and Miley, Chacin and Gio Gonzalez in 2018).
Domingo German (122) – I would rather have German for a half a season then most of the players you have ranked greater than 60 for a full season. After Tanaka (and really before that) Some players will be studs but it is a guess as to whom. I put him after Tanaka at 61 on your list because I would much rather have German for 3 months and his replaement for 3 months than Bundy for 6 months.
Alex Wood (127) – Wood went to Driveline this winter and is averaging 93 MPH on his FB vs. 90 MPH for his career. He did have a 12 game streak in 2017 where he averaged 93. He had a 1.83 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in this period. I have him in my top 50.
Jake Arrieta (147) – He says he is feeling good for the first time in a while. Maybe 147 is right. But I take a chance on someone so dominate in the past before Samardzija, Homer Bailey or Caleb Smith. Place him about 70.
the top 3 are all guys id keep an eye on for sure, especially wood. always been a wood fan (hehe) and now he’s throwing harder? sign me up on a 100 win team!
wood until he inevitably gets hurt is a great bet. Hopefully he doesn’t PLAY hurt and blow up a couple of starts.
Say the same for Rich Hill as German
Tbf Bundy is gonna click one day, just a matter of when
Free advice: just forget about Alex Wood. He’s just not that into you.
Teheran’s move to the Angels and the DH and somewhat lesser receivers have the chance to really hurt him. Even with Flowers he nibbled and walked a ton of guys and I wonder how much of his out performance of peripherals was based on having good catchers vs quality of contact (which admittedly does seem to be a demonstrated skill he possesses).
I dunno why anyone would pick up teheran in a 5×5 league. No k’s, bad team (maybe), doesn’t go deep, tends to get blown up third time through the order (IMO), has a ton of baserunners. He was fine in my QS league.
His Ks are not that bad and he doesn’t go less deep than lots of guys on the list. You are talking about a guy just inside the top 100. He is a high-end matchup, streaming guy.
yeah that seems right. He’s never rostered in my leagues, so I’ve streamed him with…. ok success.
Of the 103 pitchers who faced at least 100 batters a third time through, he was 53rd in OPS-against at .790
While his K rate is at or just below average, his IP volume keeps his K total useful (162 each of the last 2 years). He is one of just 22 SPs with at least 162 K each of the last 2 years.
He’s also one of just 10 SPs with a sub-4.00 ERA in at least 174 IP each of the last 2 years.
In short, the Teheran hate is largely overblown. Considering how cheap he is (>300 ADP), he’s actually pretty underrated unless you believe in Steamer’s 5.30 ERA/1.46 WHIP (I do not).
He might not put up another sub-4.00 ERA, but even a 4.50 ERA/1.30 WHIP with another 160ish Ks is worth more than his draft price (that’s essentially what Homer Bailey did last year and he was the 62nd SP).
Doubtful the catchers will make a lick of difference. Teheran is an inning eater period.
175 pitchers and only one Oriole! (Not to disagree – just keep us O’s fans in your thoughts)
One should never mix fan loyalty with fantasy selection.
Alex Cobb – 5+ ERA, 1.50+ WHIP and 5 wins in two years. And 2019 he was injured much of the year. Still an Oriole so not many wins in his future. Not a risk I want.
Woj – 5.76 career ERA. Zero upside. I don’t want to touch Ponce De Leon or Porcello but at least with these two have a glimmer of upside.
LeBlanc, Bailey or others. I’ll pass.
Alex Cobb trying to pitch through elbow pain during Spring 2015 has to go down as one of the biggest “Doh!” moments of all time.
lol, i was just going to thank him for expanding to 175 so the Mariners had more than 1 pitcher on the list. I didn’t even realize Baltimore was running out a team this year. Maybe expand to top 300 starting pitchers for Orioles fans?
Would Chris “With a C-” Davis make the cut?
And here I thought Seattle had it rough because after Marco “The Volvo of Aces” Gonzales checks in at #89 the rest of the Mariners staff can be divided into “Didn’t throw a baseball last year, might this year” or “Threw a baseball last year, probably shouldn’t have.”
The sad thing about fandom is I’ve kinda got hopes for all of them. I mean if you squint reaaaallly hard, you can almost see a playoff rotation here. Maybe squint plus a can of mace in eyes.
Cheers, Baltimore.
Here’s to hopin’.
Yes but 11 Dodgers. I would have to think that the second best Oriole has got to give more value than the guy listed 11th in depth on the dodgers! I doubt the dodgers use 11 starters this year for more than 1 start.
Have you paid attention to the Dodgers for the last few years?
even the Dodgers only used 11 last year, with 2 openers.
With the new rules, they won’t be able to game the IL anywhere near as much. While it’s ok to give a guy a 1 start break, it’s a lot tougher with 2 starts required to miss.
Any idea when player profiles will be updated? Thanks.
Can you explain that Eduardo Rodriguez ranking? He came into 2019 ranked higher than SP #49 put a pretty usable 2019 season, especially his 2H, and he’s ranked lower for your 2020 rankings?
Personally, I’d slot him around Urias, Ohtani, & C. Martinez.
Seems kind of bullish to have Loaisiga at 130 when he’s never had a season with 85 IP in his entire Career between the MLB and minor leagues.
Guys past 100 are simply streamers. At 130 you are talking players on waivers. Anyone he likes at all can go in that range IMO. The fact that he has a non-zero chance to be in the rotation in the largest media market in MLB makes him a good speculative pickup. it doesn’t even matter if he does anything.
130 is preeeettttyyyy deep. He’s 25 years old, I’m not too worried about the fact that he hasn’t logged a ton of IP yet.
I always like to see who makes it at the tail end of these lists and one name really stuck out to me in that last tier. Of all those fledgling or burnt out arms, Rick Porcello stands alone as someone who probably should be given some kind of bump up. He’s only 31 and has switched from the AL East to the NL East, and given how he’s had some solid seasons in the past, I think he’s gotta be at least as ‘good’ as those in the Dallas Keuchel tier. Definitely worth a bounce back gamble, I would think.
Porcello is always a steal. He is exactly the kind of guy that is rostered by many teams that win deeper leagues.
Link to source/evidence of this assertion?
He’s on a weird every other year of usefulness pattern which of course has no real viability, but perhaps he’s too low.
Last 3 years:
Porcello – 4.79 ERA/1.32 WHIP in 579 IP
Keuchel – 3.48 ERA/1.27 WHIP in 463 IP
Even if you add in Porcello’s Cy Young season of ’16 and Keuchel’s 4.55 in that same year, Keuchel is still more than a half run better. I will concede that Porcello should be a bit higher, though.
What’s the ETA on Ohtani taking the mound in the majors?
Mid-may was the most recent report.
We should all be seriously considering the scenario of Ohtani as a hitter only. If he hits a setback or this year doesn’t go smoothly then it can’t be far off. I have been convinced since before he came to MLB that he only wants to hit. I think he may want to put pitching behind him.
You’ve been convinced of that based on what exactly?
I’m OK preparing for a hitter-only iteration this year, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s not interested in pitching.
McKay at 140 seems reaaaalllly low to me. What is the driving concern? Most projection systems have him with a 3.75’ish ERA and 10-10.50/K9. Are you concerned about his shoulder or work load or something else?
That K rate projection is a fantasy. The only reason he cracked 10 last year was that he got to pitch in relief. The shoulder is obviously a concern. Remember that he was the most polished college arm in his draft which translates to quite a few amateur innings. TB brought him along slowly too so the miles have added up more than your typical player of his profile. Despite the lack of IP he was surely doing all the regular side work. I wonder if the limited innings counts have had him throwing closer to 100% all the time too which is bad for the arm. He has never averaged more than 5 IP at any stop. Those limited IP fuel the K rate, but they also cut into wins and QS – especially in an org that is in a hurry to yank every pitcher all the time. You also should accept that all the time as a two-way player surely took some additional toll on his arm as there is no way he could take care of it as well as someone who only had one job. Any arm injuries to McKay should sound really scary. There is also the reality that TB gets pitchers hurt a lot. I agree that 140 is low, but I am going to do a back-flip every time I see someone reach for him.
I think you are overestimating the impact of his relief innings. He only pitched 2.1 innings in relief to his 46.2 as a starter. His K-rates were almost identical in both roles (10.22 as SP, 10.29 as RP). Also, admitting that he has limited innings on his arm but also saying you’re concerned about the work load seems like you’re just making up reasons to not like him. I get that we need to be reasonable in our assessments and can’t just overlook concerns on players we like but trying to create causes for concern that don’t even exist isn’t helping either.
Paxton seems high on the list given the injury history , and I’d put Garrett Richards in the Civale/Tanaka area. Great work, thanks for the insight.
Paxton seems high on the list at 48 given his injury history but Garrett Richards, he of the two elbow surgeries and of the 6, 6, 16, and 3 starts, respectively, from ’16-’19 should be floating around 59-60? But why why why, my friend?
I am with Franklin here. Basically you are saying Richards should be ranked higher than Paxton. I don’t see it.
/sees Blake Snell as a #2 starter
all right time to riot
Chris Sale seems a little high for someone who’s going to have to throw with his wrong arm
not to mention his sickness what ever that is..
just saw he’s going to see James Andrews. Ruh Roh!
Flaherty ranked below Luis Castillo? The 2nd half wasn’t an anomaly, it was the becoming. Kid’s in full blown beast mode this year
It is always wrong to write off a half of a season. Ask German Marquez about it.
Yes it was. A 0.91 ERA half is ALWAYS an anomaly, regardless of the SP’s talent.
I don’t mind preferring Flaherty to Castillo, but like I always say in the intros of these rankings, arguing over 1 spot is pretty useless.
How many IP is your Urias ranking assuming? Seems like you’re bumping him up a little more from where he was during the SP pod. Would love to hear your thoughts! Seems like he could have a Paddack or Buehler year 1 impact this year (limited IPs but ace stats).
In a league where Bueller, Corbin, Flaherty, Bieber, and possibly Clevinger are likely to be kept by other teams, would you keep Castillo I’m rd 4?
12 team, 6 x 6 with holds. Other keepers for my team are Soto (11), (Woodruff, 16), (Mondesi 10).
I get 4 keepers, who lose 6rounds each year. (A 10th rounder this year would be a 4th next year).
My other options are Mercado (16) and garver (16).
Thank you.
I personally like the gamble on Garver in the 16th.
None are such good values you’d expect to keep them after this season. And Garver seems the most likely to deliver value compared to where you’re keeping him.
Im worried about garver being a product of the juiced ball.
I keep Castillo and Garver
Over who? I only get 4
Soto, Garver, Mondesi, and Woodruff for me. I like Castillo better in a vacuum, but not at a 12-round difference.
Thank you
Seattle has a nice cluster around ~#160. (gulp)
The dodgers have 11 Arms on this list. How could the 11 th Starting pitcher in depth possibly help my fantasy team? wouldn’t I get more value out of the second best starter on the Orioles who only have one arm listed?
The 11th guy in the Dodgers rotation won’t blow up your ERA and WHIP?
neither are getting many wins either..
You’re free to take Alex Cobb if you want.
Paul—I am curious, why the Boyd love? He seems to be ranked around several better pitchers. I get the Coors fear, but even Gray and Marquez are better at suppressing HR. Some reason you think that Boyd cures his gopheritis this year? (I know others are high on him, too. I just can’t figure it out at all.)
Interesting comparison. I have never understood the Gray love. Except for one month in 2018 he has been very average. Marquis had a great 2nd half in 2018 and Boyd a great half in 2019. I will probably avoid all three.
I actually don’t think there’s any Gray love based on the lists I’ve seen around fantasy baseball circles, so this list is a welcome exception. 2018 wasn’t a good season for Gray, but 2019 was very solid for a guy pitching in and out of Coors. As someone who has the capacity to get 180+ strikeouts without imploding the ERA (as assumed by Coors pitchers), I think Gray will end up as better than average if he can get more consistent.
The weird thing is that he’s actually been better at home over the course of his career despite playing in Coors. If Gray could maximize his starts on the road (low-to-mid 3.00s ERA) and maintain his mid-4.00s home ERA (4.36 in 313.7 IP), there’d be some nice upside to him given where his ADP is this year.
The Gray love goes back to his draft status.
Despite that HR issue and a rough 2H, he was still the 43rd SP last year. I see him continuing to miss bats and limiting walks to aid a positive WHIP. If he can improve his ERA, that’d be a bonus as this ranking actually bakes in some regression off of ’19
Adam Wainwright belongs on this list ahead of everyone in that last tier. Sure, he’s 38, but he at least had a decent year last year and is guaranteed a rotation spot to begin the season. which is more than any of those bottom-feeders can claim.
Number 176 says to cram it..
Where does pitcher Wento Driveline rank?
I thought with Wood going through Driveline and remaining healthy, He would be ranked a little higher, I believe he may be one SP who exceeds his adp significantly.
I can think of many SP that went to Driveline and did not turn into better pitchers. I am sure they are better at pitching drills though.
I have a bad feeling that Carrasco is nowhere near a top 25 pitcher at this point in his career. He is questionable for opening day at this point. I like the optimism but I wouldn’t pay that rate.
I have been agonizing over keeping Fried or Gallen and had finally settled on Gallen. Of course this ranking comes out and Fried is 20+ spots higher! Help!
I definitely like Gallen, but I’m not sure he’s as fully formed as he’s being treated. I was no doubt impressed by his 80 IP sample, but he had an 11% BB, 84% LOB, and 4.24 SIERA. This will be his first full season which will likely have some ebbs and flows en route to a high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA, solid WHIP, and plenty of Ks.
Fried had his full season last year with said ebbs and flows and I’m looking for a big step forward this year with hit suppression being a major key. Some of that is the defense behind a pitcher, but he’s always carried higher BABIPs so I think his own improvements can bring it down. I’m hoping his refined arsenal with the added slider allows him to shave down that .333 BABIP. I think we’re getting a big 185 IP season from Fried (3.30 ERA/1.20 WHIP) with a K rate even above his 25% mark from ’19.
Thanks so much for the reply! I ended up going with Fried after looking more closely at the underlying stats. I think I had forgotten how good he was last year and has been below the radar compared to the Gallen hype this off season.
Picked up Fried off the waiver wire early last year. I was happy with him, but he faded a bit in the second half. Do you think that was a stamina issue?