Author Archive

Beat the Shift Podcast – First Week Episode w/ Glenn Colton

The First Week Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Glenn Colton

Intro

  • Biggest regret of the draft season

Strategy Section

  • How long into the season should you still use pre-season projections?
  • Trading early in the season
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Injury Update
    • What discount would you be willing to take in order to trade him away?
    • The Tatis trading market
  • Setting fantasy lineups in April
  • Setting waiver claims in April
  • Closer volatility

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Bold Predictions Episode w/ Scott Pianowski

The Bold Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

  • 2021 Draft Trends
    • Starters pushed up
    • Reliever pricing
    • Prospects
  • Adalberto Mondesi
    • Injury Update
    • The case for drafting him
    • The case against drafting him
      • Discussion of Risk and Risk-Adjusted Pricing
    • Comparison to Byron Buxton
    • Comparison to Carlos Gomez

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Ariel Cohen’s 2021 Bold Predictions

Opening day is upon us!

Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings.

After a 60-game short season in 2020, baseball looks to drive us just a bit closer towards normalcy. Yes, there will still be abundant COVID protocols in effect, and yes – fan attendance will be restricted. But for most of us, the sun feels just a bit brighter today.

A large number of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were shifted to virtual venues. Aside from a larger online presence, the vast majority of fantasy baseball players had a somewhat normal draft season. Remember last year, when we essentially had two distinct baseball draft seasons (in February/March as well as in June/July)? Hopefully the 2021 season will proceed without major interruptions.

It is now time to share my 2021 bold predictions with you. One of the first fantasy baseball articles that I had ever written was the 2018 edition. I am proud to be back for the 4th straight year, sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. Some predictions stem from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

As always – please remember: These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Raimel Tapia will not lead the majors in homers, and I won’t predict that. Khris Davis will not contend for a batting title, and I won’t consider that. Those are not bold predictions – those are impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on some 10-30% of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish than 10% would be miraculous, while any more probable than 30% would be too easy a guess.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Pre-Season Recap Episode

The Pre-Season Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

The focus of this podcast is on fantasy baseball strategy.

Today, we look back at the topics and highlights of our pre-season coverage. We give a preview of what you can look forward to on the show in the coming months.

 

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Spring Training Injury Update Episode


Beat the Shift Podcast – Mock Draft Episode w/ Ray Murphy

The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

Strategy Section

  • Snake Draft
    • General Strategy & Method
    • Strategy differences between shallow & deeper formats
    • Early observations of 2021 drafts

RotoBaller Mock Draft

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Episode w/ Anthony Bass (Miami Marlins)

The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Anthony Bass, Relief Pitcher on the Miami Marlins

Interview

  • The 2020 season experience
  • The current offseason
  • Differences in pitching philosophies between ball clubs
  • Pitching in Japan
  • Learning the split finger from teammate Shohei Ohtani
  • Preparing for a game – as a starting pitcher vs. a relief pitcher
  • Incorporating anlaytics into pitching preparation in 2021
  • Bass’s change-up
  • Past pitching coaches
  • Marlins to watch out for in 2021
  • Pitchers innings limits in 2021
  • Bass’s pitching role on the Marlins
  • Don Mattingly
  • How the NL East will shape up in 2021

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Alex Fast

The Relief Pitcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Alex Fast

LABR Recap

  • Reactions to the LABR Mixed Auction League Draft

Strategy Section

  • Closers
    • How should we draft closers in 2021?
    • What closer tiers are the best return on investments?
    • Is it better to pick a named closer on a bad team or an uncertain closer on a good team?
  • Relievers
    • How should we set ourselves up for in-season play with relief pitchers?
    • How much are reliever ratios a consideration while drafting, as opposed to only considering the closers role (saves)?
    • When should you draft a valuable middle reliever over a named closer?

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Injury Episode w/ Stephania Bell

The Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Stephania Bell of ESPN

Tommy John Surgery

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Catcher & Utility-Only Episode w/ Ryan Bloomfield

The Catcher & Utility-Only Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ryan Bloomfield

Strategy Section

  • Catchers
    • How to account for Positional Scarcity with Catchers
    • Differences between 1-Catcher Leagues and 2-Catcher Leagues
    • Streaming Catchers
    • Is J.T. Realmuto worth his current draft price?
  • Utility-Only Players
    • Are Utility-Only players undervalued in drafts?
    • “Clogging the Utility Slot”
    • Utility-Only players to gain positional eligibility

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