The 2024 Predictions episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• Draft Recap
  • Drafting early vs. drafting late
  • The influence of projections
  • Helium players
    • What causes them?
  • Closer trends
• Discussion about Average Draft Position (ADP)
• Our most drafted players
• FAAB in the first few weeks of the season
  • Importance
  • Opportunity Cost
  • How much to spend?
  • Tying in draft / roster construction

Bold Predictions

• Hitter predictions
• Pitcher predictions
• Team predictions

Awards Predictions

• MVP
• Cy Young
• Rookie of the Year

World Series Predictions

Injury Update

Softball

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The Draft & Auction Recap episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Justin Mason

Strategy Section

• TGFBI
  • What is TGFBI?
  • KDS Selections
  • Draft plan & execution
  • Freddie Freeman as a 1st rounder
  • Nico Hoerner as a draft linchpin
  • Relief Pitcher darts at the end of drafts
  • How much risk to take on, and when?
  • TGFBI Average Draft Position trends
• Auctions
  • Differences between snake drafts and auctions
  • What is it like to draft against?
    • Ariel Cohen
    • Justin Mason
  • Adjusting draft strategy based on other owners’ tendencies
  • Coming to auction tables with market values
  • Hitter / Pitcher % Split
  • How to handle Ronald Acuna Jr. in auctions?
  • Online vs. in-person auctions
  • 12-team vs. 15-team auctions
• LABR Mixed Auction Recap
  • Justin
    • Stars & Scrubs hitting
    • Low cost pitching
    • Late game / low valued injury darts
    • 3 Closers
  • Ariel
    • Big catcher spending
    • High value starting pitching
    • How to make up for the loss of Devin Williams
  • Trading leagues vs. non-trading leagues
• Tout Mixed Auction Recap
• Drafting as a proxy for a team’s owner
• Tout Head to Head Recap
  • Do you need to follow the market’s Hitter / Pitcher % split in points leagues?
  • Nominating catchers early on
  • Salvador Perez’s value
  • Factoring in the HTH playoff format into player valuation

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The Pre-Season Injury episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

• Important medical terminology for injuries
  • Ligaments, tendons, etc.
  • Strains vs. sprains
• Long-term injuries
  • Shoulder vs. Elbow for pitchers
  • Hitter injuries

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Injured Players

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The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Greg Jewett

Strategy Section

• General closer player pool observations
• What price points should you purchase closers at?
  • General strategy
• Is purchasing closers through FAAB a good investment?
• What skills or information should you look at to speculate on closers in waiting?
• Stay away from closers on bad teams?
• When is it worthwhile to roster a closer handcuff?
• Should you worry that a closer will be traded mid-season (enough to affect a buying/rostering decision)?

Closer Situations

• Discussion of all 30 MLB team closer situations

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The Mock Draft episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Welsh

Strategy Section

• General snake draft strategy
• Early round pitcher strategy
• Differences between various formats & depths
• Tackling closers
• Tackling catchers
• KDS preferences
• What is the most important statistic to focus on?
• What is a category that you could get on the waiver wire?

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The Starting Pitcher Preview (Part II) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Paul Sporer

Strategy Section

• Relievers moving to the rotation
  • Good source to find fantasy players?
  • Candidates for 2024
• San Francisco Giants plan for 2024
• Total Solar Eclipse
• Spring Training
  • Red Flags
  • Green Flags
  • Injuries in Spring Training
  • Spring training stats on FanGraphs !!!
• How to value older / aging pitchers
  • Survivor Bias
  • How cost plays in to the risk
• Supermodels
• How to value pitchers coming over from a foreign league
  • Foreign pitchers vs hitters
• 9 Pitcher roto roster – how to split SP/MR/CL?

Starting Pitchers

• General player pool observations
• Lower tiered pitchers
  • What to look for?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Starting Pitchers
  • Jordan Montgomery
  • Nestor Cortes
  • Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Ryan Pepiot
  • Aaron Civale
  • Griffin Canning
  • John Means

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Introduction

In 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the original article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). Today, I am proud to release the same in-depth research for the sixth consecutive year!

This is not a typical statistical analysis. There won’t be any Chi-squared tests, nor will I calculate Type I or Type II errors. Forget about mean squared errors or any hypothesis testing.

My methodology does not incorporate a statistical model. Instead, it looks to determine the profitability potential of each projection system by simulating what would have happened in a fantasy auction draft. It games the projections.

What do I mean by this?

Let’s think about what happens in a real fantasy [pun intended] baseball draft auction.

Suppose that Jared Cross himself (or anyone exclusively using the Steamer projections) walks into a rotisserie auction prior to the 2023 baseball season. Let’s say that Jared decides to participate in an NFBC auction league. Mr. Cross would take his projections and run a valuation method through them to obtain auction prices. He would generate a list that looked something like this …

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The Auction Strategy episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeff Erickson

Strategy Section – Auction Strategy

• General Auction Strategy
  • Rules to live by
  • Differences to snake drafts
  • Online vs. in-person auctions
  • Time of day
  • Other players’ tendancies
  • Looking around at the auction table
  • Most important items to keep track of during an auction
• Nomination Strategy
  • Have a purpose
  • Reasons for nominating who you are most interested in buying
  • Plan A / Plan B nomination
• Market Values
  • Assessing the market
  • AAVs / ADP$
  • Hotspots
• What to pay for players
  • Strike Prices
  • Paying more for players who fit your team’s build
• Money plan
  • Hitter / Pitcher % Split
  • Stars & Scrubs vs. Spread the Risk
  • Unorthodox strategies
• Money management
  • Pacing yourself in the auction
  • Buying out of “the break”
• In-draft adjustments
  • Tracking scarcities
  • Tracking inflation
• Bidding
  • General procedure
  • Starting bid
  • +2 bids
  • Bidding often
  • Timing of bids
  • Price enforcing
• Other tidbits
  • Pay attention to the other bids
  • Clogging the DH spot
  • Shohei Ohtani is still pitcher eligible
  • Need to get bargains

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The Starting Pitcher Preview (Part I) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

What’s new at PitcherList?

• PLV 2.0

Strategy Section

• Pitch arsenal
  • Is it better to have one elite pitch, or a few good pitches?
  • Pitch mix changes
    • Blind spot of projections?
    • How to know when a pitcher will be more successful?
    • What to make of a pitcher throwing a new pitch?
• Should we trust certain teams / organizations to improve pitchers?
  • Ryan Pepiot

Starting Pitchers

• General player pool observations
• 12-team vs. 15-team leagues
• Which is more important – securing ratios or strikeouts?
• Should you chase wins?
• How much of a discount do you need for an injury concern pitcher?

ATC Undervalued Players

• Starting Pitchers
  • Framber Valdez
  • Logan Webb
    • How to throw a screwball
  • Max Fried
    • Partial tear vs. full tear
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto innings
  • Zach Eflin
    • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • Tanner Bibee
  • Justin Steele
  • Shane Bieber
  • Chris Bassitt

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The Middle Infield Preview episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

Strategy Section

• Risk
  • Should you minimize risk early on in drafts?
  • Should you increase risk late?
  • At what point in the draft do you worry less about risk?
  • How does league size / depth affect your risk propensity?
• The value of player consistency
  • Head to Head formats
• Pitchers with injury issues
  • Why do projections seem to overstate innings for risky starters?
  • Should you avoid injury risk pitchers all together?
  • Should you worry about your team’s aggregation of risky pitching?

Middle Infield

• General player pool observations
• Positing scarcity no longer exists
• Which price points to play at in 2024?
• What statistics should you get from the MI?
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

ATC Undervalued Players

• Middle Infielders
  • Bo Bichette
  • Nico Hoerner
  • Gleyber Torres
  • Xander Bogaerts
  • Willy Adames
  • Nolan Gorman
  • Jeremy Pena
  • Vaughn Grissom
  • Jeff McNeil
  • Jorge Polanco
  • J.P. Crawford

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