Author Archive

Beat the Shift Podcast – Prospects Episode w/ Eric Cross

The Prospects Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Eric Cross

Strategy Section

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Pitcher Preview Strategy Episode

The Pitcher Preview Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

  • Pitcher Preview
    • Tools to look at matchups
    • Analytics for deep dives
      • Walk and Stirkeout rates
      • ERA estimators
      • Luck checks
      • Statcast measures
      • Game logs
      • Upcoming matchups

Pitcher Preview

Waiver Wire

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

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Beat the Shift Podcast – NL Central Episode w/ Sara Sanchez

The NL Central Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Sara Sanchez

Tout Wars Update

Strategy Section

  • 2022 Baseball Environment – How have player values changed for certain player types?
    • High contact / Low Power
    • Low BA / High Power
    • Stolen base players
    • Ace pitchers
    • Reliable closers

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Frustration Episode w/ Howard Bender

The Frustration Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Howard Bender

TGFBI Update

Strategy Section

  • When do you look at where you are in the individual category standings?
  • When do you look at where you are in the overall standings?
  • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • Unorthodox Strategies
  • Is it too early now to punt categories?
  • Trading desperation
  • The risk of Byron Buxton
  • Frustrating fantasy baseball situations
    • Injured players
    • Overbidding / underbidding on FAAB
    • Sitting a player who has a good week
      • Shohei Ohtani’s excellent pitching performances in weekly leagues
    • Starting a player who has a bad week
  • Balancing being a fantasy expert and succeeding in fantasy leagues

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Waiver Wire Episode w/ Vlad Sedler

The Waiver Wire Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Vlad Sedler

Strategy Section

  • When to sit cold players, and when to cut them?
    • Does it differ for Hitters vs. Pitchers?
  • Cutting injured players in non-IL slot leagues
    • Eloy Jimenez
    • How much FAAB should one spend on an injury stash?
  • FAAB
    • Going with your gut.
    • When should you overspend on FAAB?
    • Being in tune with how the rest of the league is spending FAAB dollars.
    • FAAB from a Return on Investment perspective.
    • FAAB pricing also depends on the avaialble player pool.
    • Looking at other team’s positional and categorical needs before setting FAAB bids.
  • General FAAB bidding guidelines
    • Streaming options
    • Hot players
    • Speed
    • Closers and speculative closers

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Early Season Episode w/ Ian Kahn

The Early Season Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Predictions Episode w/ Scott Pianowski

The Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

  • 2022 Draft Season Wrap-Up
    • Younger players over boring vets
    • Reliable pitching
    • It’s less about the player information advantages, and more about the game play.
  • What do you look for / watch closely for early in the season?
    • Roles
    • Manegerial tendencies
      • Lineup
      • Bullpen
      • Stolen base attempts
      • Platoon splits
    • Pitchers
      • Velocity
      • Walk and strikeout rates
      • Don’t look at pitch count
    • Which baseball is the MLB using?
  • How quickly can you trust the hot/cold player starts?

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Ariel Cohen’s 2022 Bold Predictions

I am grateful to say that Opening day is finally here! Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count in the standings. Though the season will start a week later than expected, and despite a shorter spring training with an intense “hot stove” period – baseball normalcy is on the horizon.

The 2022 draft season was unique; it was bifurcated with a clear demarcation point in time. There was the period during the lockout, and the period post-lockout. Unfortunately, many of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were still shifted to virtual events. But all may be forgotten quickly after a full slate of fifteen games appear on the docket this coming weekend.

As our tradition over here at RotoGraphs, it is now time to share our bold predictions with you. This year will be my 5th straight year of sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. A few predictions come from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Myles Straw will not lead the majors in homers. Miguel Sano will not contend for a batting title. Greg Holland will not win 20 games. Those would not be bold predictions – those would be impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that is some 10-30% likely. That is to say, they should roughly lie in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on at least one tenth but not more than one third of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish a prediction would be miraculous, while any more probable would be too easy a guess.

Some bold predictions may be more likely than others, but all should go against the majority opinion. The point here is to call attention to a few undervalued (or overvalued) bets by the market. The aim is to focus on (or away from) a particular player or situation. Of course, the goal is also to have some fun!

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Pre-Season Injury Episode

The Pre-Season Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

Hitters

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Mock Draft Episode w/ Chris Welsh

The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Welsh

Tout Wars Head to Head Recap

Strategy Section

  • General Draft Strategy
    • Push up saves/steals/starters? What is the right time to roster them?
  • KDS Selection for 2022
  • What is the best time to reach for your “favorites,” “targets” or “upside players?
  • Should you draft prospects in redraft leagues?

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