Top 30 SP Rankings for 2020
I recently did a solo pod covering my top 30 and I made some mistakes. I didn’t include Madison Bumgarner in the honorable mentions and I forgot to transfer Jose Berrios from the scrap list to the main one I used on the pod (that’s what I get for using two different files). I decided to do a write up and get a bit deeper on the ranking. There are a lot of changes! If you listened to the pod, have fun finding all the differences.
Obviously, they are going to change even more as the season finishes and we get into the offseason, but I was somewhat surprised at how much I changed things over the course of two days just by doing some deeper research. Maybe that’s not surprising at all… of course more research should influence my thoughts on these guys. Anyway, let’s get into it!
Let me know what you think in the comments. There are 52 names listed with the Honorable Mentions (and yes, the HMs are ranked, unlike on the pod), did I miss anyone that has to be within the top 52? As for ranking disagreements, I’m particularly interested in the sharper disagreements (like 7-10 spots). Flipping #22 and #25 is more a personal preference but thinking #30 should be at #19 or something like that is worth some discussion.
| Rk | Player | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Verlander | Has 2.52 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, & 30% K-BB in 410.7 IP w/HOU |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | Even at age-35, he’ll still be a consistent 1st rounder |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | Ws have once again held him back (7-7 rec. despite 2.68 ERA) |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | He will be my #1 if he re-signs with HOU this offseason |
| 5 | Walker Buehler | Has fully delivered on incredible draft hype; only 25 in ’20 |
| 6 | Chris Sale | Still top 25 this yr despite 4.40 ERA bc of 36% K% & 1.09 WHIP |
| 7 | Shane Bieber | Going to contend for some IP crowns which is so valuable |
| 8 | Stephen Strasburg | Pacing toward 2nd 200+ IP season; has literally never been bad |
| 9 | Blake Snell | Still has 9th-best K-BB this yr despite ups & downs |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw | 6th-best ERA & 9th-best WHIP of Top 30… very nice |
| 11 | Mike Clevinger | Could’ve built on great 200 IP ’18, but inj. cost him 2+ mos. |
| 12 | Noah Syndergaard | Can he just get to HOU already so he can reach his potential? |
| 13 | Patrick Corbin | Backed up huge 2018 w/another great season; quiet stud |
| 14 | Luis Castillo | Ascent began in 2H of ’18: 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28% K in 215 IP |
| 15 | Aaron Nola | Has regained ace status this summer (2.09 ERA, 83 K in 73.3 IP) |
| 16 | Charlie Morton | Age (36) will suppress his price making him a fantastic buy |
| 17 | Trevor Bauer | Inconsistency remains remarkably frustrating; ’18 was career yr |
| 18 | Jack Flaherty | SL surge driving insane 2H: 0.79 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 56 K in 46.3 IP |
| 19 | Chris Paddack | Really eager to see what a full yr has in store for the cowboy |
| 20 | Zack Greinke | Not sure he can get better at age-36, but HOU works wonders |
| 21 | Jose Berrios | Might not have another level, but this level works just fine |
| 22 | Corey Kluber | Still worried that poor FB will foster a late-career HR issue |
| 23 | Mike Soroka | Fantastic ratios make his modest K% easy to take on |
| 24 | Lucas Giolito | Everything in breakout is backed up, but will it hold for ’20? |
| 25 | Shohei Ohtani | When we learn more about his 2020 SP outlook, we can adjust |
| 26 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | His 1.64 ERA & 4% BB% since ’18 are best among top 30 arms |
| 27 | Yu Darvish | If BB gains are real, he’s once again a premium arm |
| 28 | Sonny Gray | Shift out of NY has panned out as planned |
| 29 | Frankie Montas | PED susp. cut breakout short, but improvements were real |
| 30 | Domingo German | Needs to cut HR rate to maximize 21% K-BB; has K upside, too |
| Hon. | Caleb Smith | 28% K% since ’18 is tied w/Strasburg & Buehler |
| Hon. | James Paxton | 2018 HR issue exacerbated in NY + more injuries & now age-31 |
| Hon. | Kyle Hendricks | 3.48 ERA this yr would be highest in 4 seasons if it holds |
| Hon. | Tyler Glasnow | Greatly improved control was driving breakout before inj. |
| Hon. | Mike Minor | 4th-best ERA of Honorable Mentions since 2H of 2018 (3.09) |
| Hon. | Lance Lynn | 3rd-best FIP of Honorable Mentions since 2H of 2018 (3.06) |
| Hon. | Matthew Boyd | 3.0 HR9 has curb-stomped ERA over L10 starts (5.97) |
| Hon. | Brandon Woodruff | Stupid oblique strain has stunted an impressive breakout |
| Hon. | Madison Bumgarner | Need to see where he lands as 2.95 home ERA is carrying him |
| Hon. | Carlos Carrasco | Handling his leukemia is the only concern right now |
| Hon. | German Marquez | Coors caps upside, the park remains undefeated |
| Hon. | Robbie Ray | Excellent K/poor WHIP combo always costs fair market price |
| Hon. | Zack Wheeler | Mid-4.00s ERA masks strong skills in breakout follow-up |
| Hon. | Luis Severino | Could miss the entire season; love the upside, but be careful |
| Hon. | Julio Urias | 22 y/o will be in the rotation next yr |
| Hon. | Luke Weaver | Flexor strain derailed breakout; could get Sept. starts |
| Hon. | Eduardo Rodriguez | Could still find another level, but for now he’s a fantasy #3 |
| Hon. | David Price | Will be 34 y/o coming off a tough season & currently on IL |
| Hon. | Max Fried | New SL has added K upside to one-time top prospect |
| Hon. | Kenta Maeda | Essentially a RH, older, & cheaper verison of Robbie Ray |
| Hon. | Zac Gallen | Dominated bouncy ball AAA for 91 IP (29% K-BB, 0.71 WHIP) |
| Hon. | Brendan McKay | Base skills are impressive (21% K-BB); intriguing ’20 upside |
Little surprised Dustin May isn’t an HM, he did well in the minors and has been very good in the majors so far (SSS of course). Is he missing due to performance or uncertain opportunity?
Just not there yet. Could see it as he could be in the McKay / Gallen realm
If Brandon Woodruff were to have continued doing his thing instead of getting hurt, where would he be? (This is the “there are some players you knock because of an injury, and some players that you don’t” comment.)
I love Woodruff. He’d be 25-30 if he hadn’t been cut down by the oblique and was still throwing really well
I like the list. Interesting to see so many top top arms at advanced ages. I think Minor, Lynn, Boyd and Smith have shown enough to squeak in the bottom half, but I guess that is primarily picking at nits when they are a couple spots off. I guess of the guys in the top 30 who I’d bump out, Soroka, Gray, Montas. I do wonder about others, namely Bauer. Will Bauer ever come close to 2018 again, or is this who he is?
I also don’t really see why Verlander would be over Scherzer. Scherzer has been better than Verlander every year for the last 7 years, and is younger. Maybe it is that Verlander plays for a better team, but Scherzer gets to play in the NL east and throw to pitchers and entire teams that hit like pitchers (Marlins). Scherzers fip has declined every year for 4 years while his k9 has gone up.
The back injury was the tiebreaker for JV/Max but I have zero issue with Max at 1
Soroka & Kluber are 15 spots too high on this list
How so for Soroka?
People forget a pitcher can still be good without an 11.00 K/9
I kind of agree about Soroka being too high. It seems like most of the industry is high on him though. Projections have him for a high 3’s ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Maybe he doesn’t do that, but the K’s are low too. I’d like to see a little more before I can feel too confident in him. He’s also had some injury issues (shoulder I believe?) over the last couple of years.
I see Soroka as having the Marcus Stroman type profile.
Dinelson Lamet could have just missed the honorable mentions: huge strikeout upside and pitching home games in San Diego. He seems to be showing good health in his return, and usually the second season back is when things click. A key stat for him would be pitching deeper into games.
I’m surprised that so many are somewhat low on Giolito’s breakout. I can see some cautiousness by people who bought into his prospect hype and burned for it. For me in fantasy, he is still more valuable than at least Paddack, another 2019 breakout.
Lamet will be on the “New Pitch” watchlist. If I hear he is pulling a Montas and adding a splitter, I will own him in every league.
Sorry to complain because as a dynasty player I love articles looking at next season at this time of year, but the table is needlessly confusing. I assume Paxton is the highest ranked honorable mention, but why not just call the article “Top 52 SP” and give them all a numerical ranking?
I think Paul’s giving some room to move guys around by the time the season ends, with any one of the honorable mentions possibly bumping off someone(s) from the bottom 5 of the top 30 (a nice number). I also imagine those in the honorable mention section all have warts from this season, thus making them a little tougher to distinguish rankings among themselves.
If he made it “The Top 52”, then everyone would ask him who just missed…
Q: how does a sabermetric turkey rank pitchers?
A: *globble* *globble* *globble*
Too low on Kershaw. Strasburg has never been “bad,” but Kershaw hasn’t had an ERA in the threes since 2008! There’s been zero sign that he can’t work around the velo loss. Plus this has been his most healthy season in years!
That’s fair. I could see Kersh at 6
Johnny Cueto, maybe?
Where would you rank Casey Mize? Do you see him as having an impact in 2020 comparable to Paddack this year?
I think you are way too high on Paddack. His overall number are buoyed by his insane April. He is a one trick pony with the changeup and he isn’t Luis Castillo. 27.5% Whiffs on the changeup isn’t even that elite, which means that K% should be coming down a bit. I think without an uber-elite changeup or a third pitch, Paddack just lacks the upside for me. For me top 20 pitcher needs to have top 10 upside, I just don’t see it for Paddack.
I mean is Paddack THAT different from Joey Luchessi(who arguably has a better changeup)?
Domingo German feels about 10 spots too high. Projections seem to back that up. Yes, he’ll continue to get wins, but he’ll give up plenty of runs in that ballpark in that division.
not sure how Sale with all his health questions could be top 6. According to Yahoo fantasy, he’s right now the #49 starting pitcher with only 6 wins and the 4.40 ERA. So while maybe by fWAR he’s top 25, by fantasy stats he’s hardly top 25. Think there’s more than a small chance that he never pitches in 2020.
Did you see the date this was posted?
That’s fair. However, even then where was he for fantasy purposes? Isn’t what this is a column about, fantasy baseball?
Kind of curious, with the news now, where would you drop him?