A Closer Look: Houston Astros
This Astros article will not talk about sign stealing. You’re welcome.
Continuing the series I started last week, let’s take a closer look at the World Series runner up!
OTHER TEAMS:
3 QUESTIONS
Can Justin Verlander continue to hold up at age-37?
While Verlander has gone as one of the top starters throughout the early 2020 drafts, there is always a tinge of trepidation because of his age. But should we be worried? It’s hard to say yes. I understand that anyone age-35 or older carries a bit more injury risk, but outside of his age there is nothing in Verlander’s profile that should cause panic. Not even the homers. I mean his 1.5 HR/9 mark was high, but he allowed so few base runners that it didn’t really matter. His ERA went up 0.06 from 2018.
Arguably the biggest effect of the 2019 ball was the number of opposite field home runs that carried out and no one was affect more than Verlander. His 9 oppo tacos tied him for the league lead with Shane Bieber, Noah Syndergaard, Yusei Kikuchi, and his teammate Wade Miley. Even with those homers, his .360 wOBA to the opposite field was still easily the lowest of that group (Bieber was second at .379). The rest of his profile was elite. Don’t sweat the age, draft the reigning Cy Young winner.
Will José Altuve’s SBs return?
Hamstring and knee injuries the last two years ended Altuve’s six-year run of at least 30 SBs and an average 37 as he swiped just 23 in the two seasons combined (17 and 6). He was just 6-for-11 this year. With the declining trend, it’s easy to suggest his running days are behind him. I’m not entirely sure that’s the case, though. Altuve actually notched his best sprint speed (28.6 ft/sec) since it started being calculated in 2015, up a half foot per second from 2018 (his lowest mark).
Sprint speed alone doesn’t guarantee SBs, but I’m not ready to give up on Altuve as a 20-SB asset. That’s still a big drop from his peak, it’d be 14 more than 2019. This is anecdotal, but I’ve heard the notion that the Astros don’t run so that’s why Altuve’s SBs won’t return, but they’ve been solidly in the middle of the pack the last three years with the 15th-most bags since 2017. Steamer gives Altuve 12 for 2020, but I’d push closer to 15 and take anything else as bonus. I don’t think he’s done running.
What can we get from Lance McCullers Jr. in 2020?
Lance McCullers, Disgusting 3 Pitch K Sequence.🤮
Knuckle Curve, Fastball & Knuckle Curve.And, of course, a 🔥 Ninja T Shirt…which has been statistically proven to make pitches up to 50% more filthy. 😀 @LMcCullers43 pic.twitter.com/CnXRe6IlT7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 5, 2019
He has put in the work since getting Tommy John surgery and now he’ll return with a full 16-month recovery under his belt. I’d love to see him reach the 147 innings that Steamer gives him, but his career high is 128.3 innings so I have a hard time projecting him much beyond that. I feel like putting him down for 130-135 and taking anything else as a bonus is the move.
In his innings, I expect more of the same: high strikeouts, difficult to hit, and a bit of a walk issue. Start with his career 3.67 ERA and 1.27 WHIP as a projection then go from there. He’s been priced to buy in early drafts, though his draft stock will soar once fantasy managers see him on the mound in Spring Training.
THE RISER
Urquidy showed brilliant skills in a three-level season that ended with his MLB debut in a hybrid role (though his two relief appearances were essentially shortened starts at 4 and 3 IP). Across Double- and Triple-A, he posted a 31% K rate and 5% BB rate in 103 innings. Once in the majors, he didn’t quite match those numbers, but his 24% K and 4% BB rates were still quite good in his 41 innings.
With Gerrit Cole almost certainly signing somewhere else and Wade Miley only on a one-year deal, there’s a good chance for Urquidy to lock down a rotation spot. Verlander, McCullers, and Zack Greinke will lock into three spots, they will likely sign an arm and then Urquidy and Josh James will via for the fifth spot. I think James is a better fit in the bullpen so I’m betting on Urquidy in the fifth spot and scooping him late wherever I can.
THE FALLER
It’s hard to go anywhere else with this pick considering the 23-year old Rookie of the Year posted a 1.067 OPS and 27 HR in just 87 games. It’s certainly hard to envision him getting better. Just because he’s the Faller doesn’t mean he’s going to be bad and shouldn’t be drafted. The Steamer projection is still remarkably bullish on Alvarez with 37 HR and a .275/.365/.554 line over 578 PA. I don’t see anything wrong with that, but it’d still represent a 148-point drop in OPS hence he’s the easy Faller.
A MOVE TO MAKE
Sign Yasmani Grandal
With both Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado becoming free agents, we have Garrett Stubbs penciled in as their current catcher. Nothing against Stubbs, but there’s no way he’s coming into the season as their starter. They could bring back one of Chirinos or Maldonado, but I think going for the premium catcher on the market will be their one big move of the offseason.
Grandal signed a one-year deal last year after declining the qualifying offer and now he doesn’t have a pick attached to him making him even more attractive. Grandal is one of the league’s best backstops combining a fantastic bat and top-flight framing. He could also shift to 1B later in a multi-year deal as Yuli Gurriel will be 36 years old next season. I could also see one of the second or third tier starters going to Houston (Zack Wheeler, Homer Bailey, Kyle Gibson, etc…), but Grandal is the best fit in the market for them.
PLAYING TIME BATTLE(S)
Starter: Urquidy v. James v. Brad Peacock
I already discussed Urquidy and James earlier, but Peacock could also muddy up the waters a bit for that fifth role. If they don’t sign anyone, then these three and I guess even Rogelio Armenteros would be vying for the last two spots behind Verlander, Greinke, and McCullers. Apologies to Armenteros, but I’m dismissing him from this battle for now. I obviously favor Urquidy based on my earlier write up of him.
Peacock has been quite good the last three years, but he hasn’t really shown the ability to put up a full season as a starter so while he will likely factor into the rotation at some point during the season, I don’t see him as a major threat to own a spot all year. As mentioned earlier, James feels like a reliever to me. He has some electric swing-and-miss stuff but doesn’t command it well enough to consistently log 5-6 solid innings. There could be some development, but he’s already entering his age-27 season.
PROSPECT CONTRIBUTORS FOR 2020
Hitter: Kyle Tucker | Outfielder
If you don’t really follow prospects, you might’ve missed that Tucker put up a 34 HR/30 SB season at Triple-A before finally getting a September call. He had a slow April (.599 OPS) before absolutely exploding with a .288/.383/.593 line, 29 HR, and 26 SB in 446 PA from May through August. I know Josh Reddick was making $13 million dollars in 2019 and generally adds a solid glove, but it didn’t quite make sense that Tucker kept getting skipped over for a call up prior to September.
The Reddick roadblock remains as he’s set to make another $13 mil, but I just can’t see how Tucker spends another season in Triple-A. It seems Reddick should be a 4th OF at this point. He has a 96 wRC+ the last two years while his defense is slightly above average – the perfect profile for a part-timer. Maybe the Astros will make a trade or two clear up playing time for Tucker, but if they play Reddick over him, fantasy managers will lose their minds.
Pitcher: Forrest Whitley
Whitley entered the season as our #4 prospect, but injuries and poor performance tanked his season. He wound up with a 7.99 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 59.7 innings across four levels. However, he did salvage the season a bit with a standout performance at the Arizona Fall League, tallying a 2.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 25 innings. He’s still remarkably talented and now there’s a strong buying opportunity thanks to the awful season. He doesn’t have a guaranteed spot and will almost certainly start the season in Triple-A, but if you can afford to stash him for a month or so, his price outside the top 70 starters is worth a shot.
UP NEXT: Baltimore Orioles
Hi, just observing it seems you evaluate the starting pitching options with an expectation that someone will claim the 5th spot to some level of exclusion … “betting on Urquidy in the fifth spot .” Isn’t the more likely scenario that the Astros will mix and match Urquidy, Peacock, James, and others throughout the season? Keep everyone fresh, begin James’ indoctrination as a starter, evaluate how to use in the postseason, etc. Of course this only matters to those for whom roster spot constraints or a minimum IP threshold apply. Also, this group might be more vulnerable to being pulled before 5 IP … in this case, only relevant to those interested in wins.
This is the correct answer and almost a near-certainty how the Astros will actually deploy these arms. They had 9 guys start 5 or more games in 2019 (and would have had a 10th if not for Sanchez’s injury.)
are teams going to be able to mix and match like that as easily with the 15 day IL rules now in place for pitchers?
That’s a good point and will definitely influence the Dodgers as well
The Dodgers I think will be hurt more with their bullpen vs the rotation….. but still, some there as well….
Definitely not going to be able to do what they used to do.
Hopefully it forces them to lock in some starters beyond just Buehler & Kershaw.
I think teams will be forced to quite frankly. Of course, the Dodgers are really why the rule got changed back to 15 days for pitchers quite frankly- they were exploiting it more than anyone else by a wide margin.
Will be really interesting to see how Greinke does at 36…
Cheaters.
“Bang bang.”
Bravo to whomever wrote the subtitle.
where’s the trash can?
How do you think the Astros’ sign stealing will realistically affect Astro values from a fantasy standpoint? I’ve looked through some games and haven’t heard bangs in Altuve at bats, but Correa, Springer, Bregman, Gurriel etc. at-bats are clear as day. Looking at Jomboy’s latest update, that graph of the K-BB% is pretty shocking.
yeah, I think that’s a great point…. It’s a question that is going to dog the Astros all next year and into the future…
especially if some guys get off to really bad starts
Maybe they will just find a better way to cheat? It looked like they had buzzers on their fingers as well, so who knows
mark my words. astros hitters will not perform next year like they have been. bregman for example will be a .240 with 15 hr guy. its a lot different when you don’t know whats coming. even when he did he had half of his hr barely go out by 3ft.
I wouldn’t go that far, and who knows if they will not find a different way to cheat this year? I wasn’t ever drafting Bregman anyway, because that guy was a product of his home ballpark (apparently now in more ways than one) and even the slightest change to the baseball could hurt him tremendously. Forgot what writer it was, but a writer basically showed that he lost some absurd amount of home runs at any other ballpark, like 10 or something.
That’s quite the assumption of downfall lol
you think their stats are going to go up? How much increase in OPS do you get if you know a FB, or a Curveball is being thrown? I would venture to guess over +.250 in increase ops easily.
look at his home/road splits.
It’s definitely a viable question, but I’m not entirely sure how much I’m moving their guys down. Do we even know everyone who used the system? I haven’t seen the graph you’re talking about, can you hit me with a link when you get a chance? I think the fantasy community at large will probably drop them a half round or so and I’m not averse to buying in if the discount goes further than that.
Hey Paul, here’s the link to the video I’m talking about. The graphics come in around 6:30.
https://youtu.be/I9up10jsW1c
There’s also the matter of how much of an adjustment needs to be made as far as expectations from hitters who benefited from stolen signs; not to mention the possibility of suspensions affecting playing time.
I hear you on that. I do wonder how they’d execute suspensions, though. To the banger of the trash can? Surely it’d be hard to truly punish a batter for “using” the banging, right? I’m not sure, this is definitely uncharted territory.
Okay, fine, this article will not discuss the Astros’ sign-stealing. I get it, this is Rotographs, not Fangraphs (although others have already made the well-taken point that the value of many of these players is thrown into question by the fact that their past performance seems to have been substantially aided by cheating that will no longer be there to assist them going forward).
But what I want to know is why hasn’t *a single article on this website* discussed the subject at all either? Why is there a complete blackout on the subject of the biggest scandal to rock baseball since the Steroids Era? “We discussed it in a podcast!” isn’t going to convince anyone — they are ephemeral by nature in a way that actual writing isn’t. What’s going on?
A great point. Potentially one of the biggest stories we’ve seen in baseball in years, and complete radio silence.
BUT- if it were something else that happens way too frequently with todays baseball players, we’d have 10 columns on it day of the suspension.
The silence really is deafening at this point.
Look what happens when they write a fantasy article about the Astros, boom, story blows up. This is going to have 100 comments by the evening.
It’s very strange. The games are over and there aren’t many transactions to write about yet. Instead they choose John Means and Cole Hamels’ change-up as topics.
this site has really gone down hill. lots of turnover.
This is a really good point, but if I’m being charitable, I wonder if maybe they are either a) waiting for MLB to do something more about it or b) working on a long article about it?
Or maybe it’s just that they can’t really add any new analysis right now? I mean, what else could they really say that isn’t being done better by others already?
I have a…less charitable theory.
And out of politeness I prefer not to air it in the comments of this site. But I certainly have elsewhere.
It would be nice to know what kind of separation exists between the business and editorial sides.
looooooooooooool
looooooooooooool…what? Is there a former Fangraphs employee that is embroiled in the Astros cheating scandal? Is Fangraphs legal department advising them not to comment? Are you too busy brining your Thanksgiving turkeys to write? C’mon Paul, what can you tell us?
I was laughing at the conspiracy theories. Several pieces are being worked on; given all the quickly emerging details, it’s taking some time. Until then, it’d just be rehash of what’s out there.
I think it’s fair for people to speculate. Because in many other cases/topics, what Fangraphs puts out is often times just a rehash of “what’s out there.” Not saying that’s a bad thing, but Fangraphs is my first step for baseball news. I come here first because over the years I’ve been rewarded with great material. So when there’s nothing here and tons of stuff everywhere else, it feels odd.
It is just really strange that nothing has been written yet. But if, as you say, it’s being worked on, then I’ll wait and see.
Speculate on what, though? I guess I just don’t understand the conspiracy being suggested here?
I don’t really know what the other posters are getting at myself. But to speculate as to why, after a week of this stuff going around, nothing has been posted on fangraphs at all.
Fangraphs found plenty of space to write about Brandon Taubman when that was solely a “guy acting like a sexist jerk to female reporters” story with zero implication for the actual game. (Not disputing that Taubman was a slimebucket, mind you.) Fangraphs has found plenty of space for writers to write *about their personal lives* on the site over the past several months. Which is fine, whatever, no problem.
But for that to happen and then for Fangraphs to mysteriously and conveniently go *100% completely silent*, with not one single word written, about one of the three biggest scandals in baseball’s modern history, one currently unfolding before our eyes, and which has been playing out for well over a week now…yeah, as the old saying goes, don’t pee on our legs and tell us it’s raining.
I’m not saying some editorial edict has gone out, but it’s downright curious that a place that loves to criticize baseball decisionmaking hasn’t even thrown up a brief article on the subject as a forum for discussion or comment. It seems like nobody has the desire to talk about this, perhaps because Houston was supposed to be the team that “did it right,” the Fangraphs/analytical way, and as it turns out their only real insight (brought to them by finance-bro quants and baseball analyst types like BPro’s Kevin Goldstein) was “let’s just cheat and be legends.”
FanGraphs clearly has and cultivates relationships with MLB teams/front offices. This makes it hard to know how much freedom the writers have to call it straight. See? Simple! No LOLs needed.
By the time those are published, FG might *literally* be the last baseball or sports site on the internet to address it.
I’m pretty sure “Fangraphs legal department” is staffed by Kiley’s dog and a leftover Eno sandwich … not really seeing the conspiracy here
Is Paul an Asstros fan?
I didn’t read this comment before I posted mine. Literally the biggest baseball story ever, and crickets.
I keep feeling like there is something I missed and scrolling up and down. To me the only thing that makes sense now is something that would not be a good look for Fangraphs.
agreed. several people should be banned from the game for life. Including the players who knowingly cheated. If you cheated you should be gone. You don’t get a pass. Hinch, and Lunhow and all the execs that knew should be banned for life. 5-6 players that used itshould be banned. Its my understanding is not all players used it as they didn’t want that distraction in the ear. Bregman, Beltran, basically most of the main ones did use it. They should be banned.
Also mclain should be forced to sale the team. They should lose propsects. This is biggest scandal in MLB history, much bigger than shoeless joe and pete rose, and steroid era. They made a mockery of the game and then had the arrogance to rub it in peoples faces when asked about it. They should also lose draft picks and prospects on the back end too. I mean the gm for the cardinals is rotting in federal prison for what he did….im thinking that should happen to lunhow too.
Agreed. FG has been silent on a huge story. It’s a bad look for them. And Paul’s “you’re welcome” opening line is tone deaf. This is a massive cheating scandal committed by a team that was already hated for very good reasons. Baseball fans want and need more coverage of this story.
Based on how this whole thing has played out (including this thread), I’m no longer attending the Fangraphs event this week in NYC.
Major loss of respect. Not that anyone should care but since the FG staff seems to think this cheating scandal is just No Big Deal (LOL right Paul?), I feel gross being around them.
In no place did I say it was no big deal or anything close to that, but you’re free to make your decisions as you see fit, even when based on fiction. The efforts to turn this into some sort of scandal have been absolutely laughable.
Sorry for the overheated parts above, anyway. Got a little fired up. There does seem to be a disconnect from the audience here but as just a personal thing for me, it will be too difficult to make small talk when there is Forbidden Medium Talk and also drinks. I’ll be reading the site cover to cover. In words though!
I find the question of how to price Verlander’s risk really interesting. Paul has reiterated a few times on the pod that there are no leading indicators of age-related decline. This is true, but to me it’s also kind of missing the point. Cliff Lee’s age-34 season was pristine; so was Roy Halladay’s. What followed was not.
Nelson Cruz will continue to be a divisive player at age 39 this draft season… Personally, I’ll gamble on another season of Tater Time. Verlander too. Less nervous about age with pitchers.
just wait until it comes out the pitchers were cheating too. Verlander goes to stros his spin rate goes up and his era goes from 4.5 to 1.5. Keuchel leaves the stros and he has terrible year. hmmmmm
Keuchel’s season was virtually unrecognizable from his ’18. FIP was different, but ERA, WHIP, K, BB, and H rates were basically the same.
And they got hurt. So sure, Verlander could get hurt… like every other pitcher.
Sure, but the point is there is pitcher injury, and there is precipitous / career-ending pitcher injury – with the latter seemingly much more likely for a pitcher in Verlander’s age range. Just makes it hard for me to buy at the current prices.
I understand if you don’t want to buy under the “better to be a year early than year late” theory, but I don’t have any issues buying JV or Scherzer
I am somewhat surprised that no one has written about sign stealing. It is arguably the biggest story in baseball basically ever, and it hasn’t been addressed here at all. Weird, to say the least.
The whole thing about the cheating concerns me a lot from a fantasy perspective. To me, I think at current ADP Bregman was already a fade, and this sort of confirms it for me. It was clear that some hitters were doing it, and some were not. But which ones? That would be a good fantasy megapost, who is cheating, who isn’t, and what to expect moving forward.
Next, the pitchers. It stands to reason that if the organization was willing to go to such lengths to cheat that it didn’t stop with the hitters. We always just assumed that this organization worked magic with pitchers, but what if that wasn’t what it was? There are MANY photos of suspicious substances with Verlander. Verlander was an ace before coming to the Astros, but he was certainly not the same pitcher as he was early in his career, or after joining the Astros. What changed? Was it this magic that they worked on their pitchers, or something else? Same with Cole, what changed? If it was cheating, will Cole bring it with him to his next team?
To me it works out anyways, because I wasn’t ever going to spend a top 5 pick on Cole and a top 12 pick on Verlander regardless, so I don’t have to worry about it…but I think it is a real thing that people can be concerned about.
The Astros’ lost their credibility. I hope MLB, Vegas, Sports Media, Law Enforcement, and any other interested parties pull on every thread to see how far the Astros went.
Is it worth looking in to how the Astros’ pitchers had such impressive spin rates? Verlander re-ignited his career after the Tigers could barely give his contract away. Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton became Cy Young contenders after the Pirates could not get the best out if them (granted, the Pirates’ general incompetence may be at fault).
If fans are content to accept that “everybody cheats, so who cares?” Then I hope somebody goes all-out and implements such extreme cheating that the integrity of the game collapses. Why have rules if you din’t enforce them?
The idea that Verlander’s career was falling apart before Houston is one of the funnier myths that exists in baseball. Literally had one bad year and it was after a preseason core surgery. From 2015 thru the trade, he was the 5th best SP in baseball: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=1000&season1=2017&ind=0&startdate=2015-06-13&enddate=2017-08-30 — he has gotten better with Houston, no doubt, but folks have to stop pretending he was on the verge of retirement before getting there.
tell me how a pitcher has a spin rate of x for 12 years…goes to another team and its 20% higher all of sudden? smells fishy to me. Era goes from 4.5 to 1.5.
Not saying he was on the verge of retirement. When I look at his numbers now, I didn’t realize he was quite as good as he was (though a lot was simply by being an accumulator which is certainly a talent) , with that said, something certainly changed when he got to Houston. My concern with Astros pitchers moving forward is if they are going to make changes because they feel they are under a microscope, i.e stop cheating. Clearly I’d want that, but not if I was a fantasy owner.
Justin Verlander, to me has looked incredibly bad during all of this. He had the textbook response of a cheater when he is caught cheating. Being angry and saying it is “a joke” and “sucks for our players” and playing the victim. This is the guy who is the first player in the MLB to call out guys when they cheat, like Cano, etc. I get that it is in his interest now to stay quiet, but he is one of the most outspoken players in the entire game, constantly complaining about baseballs, reporters, etc. As annoying as he is, Trevor Bauer was probably right the entire time.
Morton had his best year ever outside of Houston.
I think it’s foolish bordering on insane to expect a player to come out and obliterate his own team regardless of how firmly he’s against what they were doing. Just thinking logically about it at all, it doesn’t make any sense. We have no idea how he’s reacting in private, but to expect some sort of public showing against his team is weird.
I’m not saying there can’t be any shenanigans with the pitchers, but there isn’t any evidence of such right now, either.
I said the exact same thing above. I agree no player would ever do that, and I wouldn’t blame them for not doing it either.
But there has always been speculation that they are doing something in Houston with some sort of substance on the baseball, etc. Now all this comes out about the hitters, to me now it makes it seem almost foolish to believe that the pitchers weren’t cheating in someway as well, which, then in turn makes me speculate on what they are going to be like moving forward if they decide to stop cheating. Or is it something easy that they can simply bring with them to another team, or continue doing with the Astros even though they are under a greater microscope? I mean, who knows. I do not think I am going to draft a pitcher in the first round this year, so the top 2 pitchers are likely out of reach for me. Greinke has always been good, and the other guys are speculative picks regardless.
There is a vast gulf between not commenting (OK) and vicious counter-attacks that Verlander knows are false (classic Astros!).
Verlander Slider Spin rates:
2015 = 2203
2018 = 2656
2019 = 2609
Hmmm. That is almost a 20% increase. Lots of smoke here if you ask me and definitely should be questioned.
G Coles Fastball Spin rates:
2015 = 2156
2016 = 2183
2017 = 2164
2019 = 2530
A 17% freakin difference and this is his fastball…..want me to show you his slider difference?
I could keep going with every single pitcher they have. They are cheating on the mound too and its obvious. CHEATS
Hopefully none of them make it into the hall of fame and the ones that got caught hitting and cheating should be banned for life.
Vegas is a side I never thought about. Interesting to think about now.
Cole/Morton might have had this in them the entire time. Verlander had been an ace prior, but he was coming off of a 6.95 k/9 a year prior to joining the Astros. He was having a rebound year in Detroit, but…still. Since Fiers ratted out the batters, maybe he also has something to say about the pitchers?
It is just a shitty situation all the way around. What players cheated? What players did not cheat? No active player is ever going to come out and rat out the entire organization while on the team, even if they didn’t like what was going on. For example if Altuve wasn’t cheating, you certainly cannot expect him to rat out his teammates. The world doesn’t work like that.
To me there is a huge difference between batters stealing signs and video cameras stealing signs. Even a team having an employee whose job is to try and figure out when the pitcher is tipping pitchers seems somewhat meh to me, but this isn’t what they were doing. They were not using people, they were using technology. And I can say 100% that every team was not doing it.
The only thing that I find really funny in this whole scandal is how willing ex employees are to rat out the Astros. They were treated so poorly, and replaced by computers so quickly that they just were lining up to rat out the Astros.
Has FanGraphs written anything about the Astros’ cheating?
whats sad is the astros are the one everyone thought had it figured out. thought they knew how to develop players etc….and all they did was cheat. This whole tanking mess started because of them. The truth is they didn’t really have anything figured out except tell the hitters what pitch was coming.
Astros mascot next year should be Oscar the Grouch walking around the park in his garbage can.
“This Astros article will not talk about sign stealing. You’re welcome.”
Biggest story in baseball in years and nobody here will write about it. Took days before it was even addressed in a podcast.
Not something I would boast about. Cue the down-votes.
Did it, though? Or did we talk about it literally the day after Rosenthal’s initial piece? https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-754-steamer-pitching-projections/
It was also on the very next ep of EW: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1456-sign-language/
But I guess whatever your tinfoil hat tells you is the way to go!
Do you recognize the difference between writing about it and talking about it via podcast?
Apparently not.
Not everyone has the time or capability of tuning into or downloading podcasts and the subject wasn’t even in the title of the podcast on the 13th.
But way to sound like a professional in your response. Have a nice day.
Podcasts can be deleted in time. And their contents are not discoverable by search engine.
Please, please, PLEASE stop insulting our intelligence by saying there’s nothing we on the outside should find fishy about the fact that the site has refused to put ONE. SINGLE. WORD. in writing about one of the biggest scandals in baseball history. You must understand that, for all your protestations of innocence, the silence (aside from a podcast nobody listens to, and which rather alarmingly seemed to excuse the cheating as a “red light/speeding” infraction anyway) comes across as the “hey let’s not make any enemies unnecessarily” instinct at play.
Meanwhile hey, here’s a piece on Cole Hamels’ change-up! You know, the one you’ve been waiting to read about all year long!
Seriously now, the “we did podcasts on this!” defense is so laughable. The easiest way to bury any story is to comment on it in a podcast. Nobody listens to those, certainly nobody who might be in a hiring position in a front office. Meanwhile, for writers seeking jobs in front offices sometime in the future, writing on the internet is Forever, thanks to Google and the Wayback Machine. That’s not a conspiracy theory. That just human self-interest on a website where many of the people covering an industry dream of one day working in that industry, because many from the site have gone on to do so in the past.
If I’m wrong, let’s see some hard-hitting condemnation and analysis of whether other teams might have been engaging in similar antics. Not “oh, the pieces are in the works.” This is many people’s first stop for baseball news and analysis. The silence is damning.
There is no defense bc no defense is needed. Your tinfoil hat is faaarrr too tight right now.
You were never under attack, so there was never a need to be defensive… which you were.
If I insulted you (or anyone else at FanGraphs), I sincerely apologize. But my intent was to make a legitimate point about a pretty significant story that never got posted in written words. You seemed to miss that point and responded with a snarky jab, rather than offer a possible explanation or show a hint of understanding.
And here you are continuing with “tinfoil” jabs. Not a great way to win people over.
A podcast nobody listens to loooool… k
Pardon my hyperbole, but I think it’s fair to say that the ratio of people who sit through podcasts for an hour versus people who can quickly read an article in 5 minutes is pretty drastic.
ive been a pretty consistent reader here for 7 years or so and never once have i listened to a podcast. the defensive attitude from paul is quite funny
Protestations of innocence? What are you talking about? There is no crime here, no matter how hard you try to turn this into something.
Crime? Who has alleged a crime? What I’m saying is that there is a natural reluctance (I’m not even claiming there’s an editorial policy here, just self-interest) to write about this topic because it’s something that people on this site don’t want to take moral positions about, for…reasons.
Literally, the complaint on the podcasts about the Astros’ sign-stealing was that “it wasn’t effective enough”! THAT’S NOT A JOKE, THAT’S HOW THIS EPISODE OPENS: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1456-sign-language/
I wonder how many dummy accounts some people have. There are certain writers on this site who post an article then argue with people in the comments, and you see a trend in their thumbs up or thumbs down. Initially someone says something that disagrees with the writer, that persons comment gets a bunch of upvotes, then a few hours later it is like there is a barrage of downvotes making that comment seem less “relevant”. It happens more it seems on the fantasy side, which is a much smaller market. It isn’t a huge deal, just sort of funny to observe. Alright now back over to r/conspiracy
This is just sad, carter.
Yes, I agree.
And yet you still posted it.
The podcasts were moderately apologetic to the Astros, also. At points, I had to rewind to be sure they were really trying to dismiss the evidence of cheating.
Some of us read the Internet rather than listen to it. I have personally never listened to a podcast in my life (I didn’t like talk radio in the 90s, either).
ETA – The author’s increasingly tone-deaf and condescending responses are getting tiresome. Read the room, man.
Some people like podcasts, they never were my cup of tea. I scour the internet all day at work reading everything I can about baseball, fantasy, etc. I do not listen to podcasts, and the only one I EVER listened to was the Serial podcast, and even that was only when traveling over the mountain, or on a plane, or somewhere without data. I was born in the last 80s too, so it isn’t like it is some generational thing either. Some people like reading, rather than listening. Currently a lot of news online is done by videos. If I go to a webpage and there is some video that automatically starts I instantly leave and try to find my news elsewhere. I’m sure some people like it, but if I had to guess, people who are analytically inclined, like readers of fangraphs are going to be less likely to want to get their news from a video, or podcast than the general public. Of course there is crossover, but a lot of us like reading too.
Everybody likes different things. Give me the printed word any day, or at least closed captioning and a mute button.
Mark my words folks…..the pitchers will regress ie verlander and cole. The hitters will regress. Bregman will not be put up 1/3rd the war he did this year. Watch. You don’t think knowing what pitch is coming helps him by multiple war this year? Garuntee you it helped bregman hit an additional 20hrs this year. He and many of the other cheats should be banned for life.
MLB was damn glad Trout won the MVP this year, and also damn glad the Nats beat the Astros…..
But seriously, to not have any written stories on here is a joke…. When other times other certain things break, and you have 10 stories…… PLUS podcasts……
I hadn’t noticed this, it was on reddit 26 days ago. Well before anything was public knowledge. Fun rabbithole to go down. Would be surprising if it wasn’t someone who knew something.
“I had a dream a couple weeks back when the astros were playing the rays, it was that after the post season finished a news story came out that the astros had a team of people deciphering signs with cameras and then that team relayed the signal to transponders that were worn in the cleats of the top (trusted not to snitch) astros players, the transponders would vibrate according to what pitch was coming (example: once for fastball, twice for off speed)
But it was just a dream haha. That wouldn’t happen.”
Apparently the Astros already figured out who the whistleblower was due to his niche post history. What a world.
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/dm7jov/game_thread_world_series_game_2_nationals_1/f4yk70c/
Bobby Thomson might have gotten a tech-aided stolen sign too, and the possibility frankly detracts from my enjoyment of that moment. Everything doesn’t have to suck. We can try harder.