We continue our tour of the infield with my second base rankings. I’m hoping to wrap up these rankings pretty quickly with the two up-the-middle positions this week and finish the rest next week.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Traditionally, shortstop has been the lowest non-catcher position in the scarcity hierarchy but second base is really pushing it this year. Mookie Betts stands alone on top of the rankings but he’s bound to lose his eligibility after this season. There are some solid options after him but once you get to 10 or 11 players deep, there’s a group of players with big questions surrounding their production and then a significant drop off. Trevor Story’s injury certainly didn’t help either. Because Ottoneu requires you to start a middle infielder in addition to the two standard positions, the scarcity at second base makes planning your strategy for these three positions pretty tricky.

There are a number of bottom-tier options that do have some potential upside if you’re open to taking on a bit of risk. If you’re stuck with a mid-tier player, one of these youngsters could be a nice partner to give you a bit more ceiling at the position if that sleeper does break out. The other nice thing about the mid- and lower-tier options is that so many of them are eligible at multiple positions. Hitting your games played caps is incredibly important in Ottoneu and these flexible players give you plenty of options when you’re filling out your daily lineups.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Brandon Lowe – I think the big difference here is a belief that Lowe’s struggles last year were all injury related. A back injury hampered him all season long and he ended up missing large portions of the year because of it. His ailment obviously sapped a lot of his power last season — his isolated power dropped over 100 points to a career-low of .162 — but he did show some improvement in other areas of his approach. His strikeout rate was a career-best 22.9% and most of that was due to a significant improvement in two-strike counts. His overall swinging strike rate and contact rates were within the realm of his career norms, but when the at-bat was on the line, he was able to reduce his whiff rate leading to a lower strikeout rate. Assuming his back is fully healed this year and his two-strike approach sticks, he’s poised to be one of the most potent bats at a very shallow position.

Ryan McMahon – It’s always tricky rostering Rockies players since their home/road splits often require a platoon mate to pair with them when they’re playing outside of Coors Field. McMahon isn’t necessarily an exception to that suggestion — his away split is a decidedly not-nice 69 point difference in wOBA — but he made some key improvements under-the-hood that could indicate a higher ceiling for him. He reduced his overall swing rate by more than three points and increased his zone contact rate up to 83%. Those two changes led to some higher contact quality and a career-low swinging strike rate. It didn’t necessarily show up in his results — his strikeout rate was still a bit elevated and his power output actually fell from his previous three-year norms — but the adjustments indicate a better approach at the plate.

Brandon Drury – When a journeyman enjoys a mid-career breakout, it’s always important to ask if it’s sustainable. You can read more about my thoughts on Drury’s career-year last season in my deep dive from December but it essentially boils down to this: he made significant improvements to his batted ball quality while also honing his approach at the plate to make contact a lot more often. And with eligibility at three positions, he’s a flexible piece of depth for any Ottoneu team.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – It breaks my heart to put Chisholm down here because he’s an extremely fun player to watch. His combination of power and speed make him one of the most dynamic young players in baseball. Unfortunately, only one of those tools will be useful in Ottoneu making him a much more valuable player in 4×4 or 5×5 formats. Then, there’s the added complication of a position move, as the Marlins have decided to try him out in centerfield this year. Maybe he takes to the transition without a hitch, but it also presents some uncertainty that, combined with his back injury last year, makes me hesitate to rank him any higher. I really hope I have to eat my words at the end of the year.

Luis Arraez – I like Arraez and Chad and I have him in the same tier, but I think I’m a little lower on him. Arraez’s old school, contact-heavy approach is pretty unique in this day and age and his move to Miami’s pitcher’s paradise shouldn’t hurt him as much since he wasn’t hitting for power anyway. But with an offensive foundation so heavily reliant on good outcomes on all his batted balls, he’s more susceptible to bad luck than most. His career BABIP is .336 and none of his individual seasons look like extreme outliers, but any dip in that metric will have significant effects on his results.

Isaac Paredes – Paredes finally got a chance at near-full-time at-bats in Tampa Bay last season and produced a pretty good 116 wRC+ in just under 400 plate appearances. His excellent plate discipline provides him with a solid foundation but I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate his power output without some significant changes to his batted ball profile. He blasted 20 home runs last year and his isolated power was .230, the highest it’s been at any level in his professional career. Despite all those extra-base hits, his barrel and hard hit rates were just 6.4% and 37.6%, respectively. Both marks are below league average wouldn’t normally indicate such a high ISO. He was able to hit so many homers because he optimizes his batted balls for pulled contact in the air. Still, without improving his batted ball quality, there’s some risk that he won’t produce as much power this year.

I’m proud to present a great new feature for our fantasy readers: a universal rankings page! Now you can find the rankings of me (Paul Sporer), Jeff Zimmerman, Justin Mason, and Chad Young all in one spot for multiple formats. Jeff, Justin, and I are ranking hitters for 5×5 and points formats, with Justin and I doing the same for pitchers (Jeff only does hitters), and Chad fulfilling your Ottoneu needs.

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After going through the catching position last week, I’m turning my attention to ranking the rest of the infield this week, beginning with first basemen. Do you need a big thumper to power your offense? Do you like strategic draft decisions at a deep position with plenty of mid-tier talent? Look no further.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

First base is always a deep position and this year is no different. If you miss out on one of the top guys, I count up to 20 or so secondary options that could provide solid production for your team. That’s not to say you should ignore those guys in the top tier and just wait to grab a mid-tier option. If you have the opportunity to pick one of Freddy Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Paul Goldschmidt, you won’t regret it. They’ll carry a large portion of your offense on their own — if you pay for that kind of production.

There’s a group of young first basemen who have either just established themselves or are on the verge of debuting, led by Vinnie Pasquantino. If you miss out on the Italian Breakfast, Nathaniel Lowe, Triston Casas, Jose Miranda, and hopefully Spencer Torkelson all bring a bit of youth to a position that has traditionally skewed pretty veteran heavy.

There are a bunch of bounce back candidates that can be found for really cheap to pair with a mid-tier option if you want to go that way. Brandon Belt’s projections are off the charts, but the health of his knees will always dictate how much he’s able to produce. Jared Walsh, Trey Mancini, and Dominic Smith also fit this bill. If any of those guys are healthy and producing, they could return some excellent value for just a buck or two, and because the position is so deep, they can be jettisoned pretty easily if they’re not hitting well early in the season.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Vinnie Pasquantino – I’m expecting pretty big things from Pasquantino in his sophomore campaign. In his first taste of the major leagues, he showed phenomenal plate discipline with a walk rate a few decimal points above his strikeout rate; he didn’t chase and made contact at an elite rate. With that kind of foundation, he’s already a step ahead of most young prospects. And when he puts the ball in play, he does it very hard and in the air. All of the skills he showed are exactly what you’d want to see from a young hitter and already make him one of the better hitters in the league at just 25-years-old.

Yandy Díaz – Díaz possesses all the same skills that make Pasquantino an elite presence at the plate — low chase, high contact, and high hard hit rates. The only thing that’s lacking is an ability to elevate the ball regularly. That didn’t hold him back from posting a career-high 146 wRC+ last year. The projection systems believe in this new ceiling he showed last year and even project a bit of power growth for him this year. I’m not sure if that’ll happen without a significant change in his batted ball profile, but he’s already proved he can be productive without a higher fly ball rate. Buy the elite skills, and if he does make the launch angle adjustment, reap even greater rewards.

Joey Meneses – Anyone who bought into Frank Schwindel’s “breakout” in 2021 can tell you to stay away from Meneses. Late career breakouts like these are just so hard to predict and rarely last long. There are a few reasons why I believe Meneses’s leap will stick this year. His hard hit rate was significantly higher than Schwindel’s, giving him a higher power ceiling. His plate approach isn’t great; the combination of low strikeout and low walk rates make him pretty dependent on batted ball outcomes. Even if his BABIP regresses back toward league average, his ability to impact the ball gives him a solid foundation to be an above average hitter.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Christian Walker – Walker posted a career-year in 2022, setting career-highs in all sorts of offensive categories. I’m not necessarily down on him because of that — though he’s likely to regress back towards his career norms. The biggest adjustment he made was to swing a lot less aggressively, reducing his overall swing rate to just under 45%. His batted ball peripherals all looked fairly similar to his breakout season in 2019. Without any significant changes to his underlying ability to hit for power, the likelihood that he repeats his career-year in 2023 comes down to whether or not his new plate approach is sticky.

Andrew Vaughn – Last season, Vaughn increased his hard hit rate four points, up from 46.4% to 48.4%, putting him in the top ten percent of the league. Even though he was able to impact the ball with authority more often, his barrel rate fell by three points and his isolated power fell by two points. Therein lies the problem. Despite hitting the ball extremely hard, it’s too often put on the ground instead of in the air. To make matters worse, his plate discipline slipped a bit as well, with his walk rate falling to 5.6%. Despite these issues, his wRC+ was still decent at 113. If you’re drafting him and expecting a breakout, there are a lot of things that will need to change first to get there.

Matt Mervis – Mervis had a ton of helium after posting a fantastic 156 wRC+ across three different minor league levels last year. He slashed .309/.379/.605 and blasted 36 home runs as he moved from High-A all the way up to Triple-A in the span of a single season. It’s certainly possible he’ll make his major league debut this year but I’m pumping the brakes on picking him as a breakout candidate. Last year was just his second professional season after going undrafted in the abbreviated, five-round 2020 draft. In 2021, he posted just an 85 wRC+ while spending most of his time in Single-A. The Cubs were obviously not ready to hand the reins over to him this year either; they signed both Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to play first. Neither of those two veterans will block Mervis if he continues smashing the ball in the minor leagues, but he has to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke first.

I’m taking a break from my rebuilding series this week to start my Ottoneu rankings for 2023. It’s a little late — the cut deadline has already come and gone — but I’ll try and get them done quickly so they’re available before draft season starts in earnest. Between these and Chad’s rankings (found below), hopefully you’ll have everything you need to prepare for your drafts this year.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Playing a catcher is a necessary evil in fantasy baseball, and in Ottoneu, you have the opportunity to play two at a time (though be careful with your position games played cap). The top players at the position will give you legitimate production but things drop off quickly from the top two tiers. If you can’t (or don’t want to) grab one of the top seven or eight players at the position, you’re probably better off picking two of the mid- or low-tier options and hoping to find some kind of production out of that combination. If you really wanted to, you could grab a couple of catchers for $1 at the auction and then just churn through the position in season until you find something that works.

There’s a pretty large group of young backstops who are either just getting established in the big leagues or are on the verge of being called up. The leap from the minors to the majors is always hard for youngsters, but it’s particularly difficult for catchers. I don’t recommend relying on one of these prospects unless you pair them with an established veteran to mitigate some of the risk.

One note about Daulton Varsho: based on playing time alone, he should probably be included in the top tier since he’ll be playing nearly everyday, but I would be shocked if he held onto his catcher eligibility next year. You could draft him as your primary catcher alongside some of the top options at the position, but next year, you’re going to have to choose whether or not to keep him as an outfielder only. Weigh his salary accordingly.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Will Smith – Technically, we both ranked Smith in the top tier so we don’t actually diverge all that much on his position, but I considered ranking Smith in a tier of his own above any other player at the position. His combination of elite plate discipline and good power for the position is unrivaled as a catcher. Both his projected points per game and points per plate appearance stand apart from any other backstop.

Danny Jansen – This ranking comes down to how much you think he’s going to play behind Alejandro Kirk; his projected production is fantastic. Those two were paired up as the starting catcher and designated hitter last year once Jansen returned from his early season injury. The Blue Jays brought in Brandon Belt this offseason and he might take away a portion of the playing time at designated hitter against right-handed pitching, but do you really think his knees (or lack thereof) are going to hold up for a whole season? I’m expecting Jansen to get plenty of playing time as the primary backup to Kirk and at DH, just like last year.

Mitch Garver – This one also comes down to playing time. In his first season in Texas, Garver spent nearly half the season on the Injured List and he was just okay when he was on the field. Still, he put up a 136 wRC+ over his previous three seasons before last year and that includes a 43 wRC+ in 2020. The Rangers don’t really have a great option at designated hitter and Garver could slot in there which is what he did for most of last year.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Francisco Álvarez, Bo Naylor, Shea Langeliers, etc. – This goes back to that note I had above about young catchers. They’re full of risk and I wouldn’t count on them to carry your production at the position. If you want to grab one as a future investment, that’s fine, but if you’re competing for a top spot in your league, I’d be more inclined to find some more consistent production from a different mid-tier option. Álvarez in particular seems like a significant risk. The talent with the bat is evident, but the Mets clearly don’t trust him behind the plate yet. New York signed Omar Narváez and extended Tomás Nido to pair at the position, pushing Álvarez back to the minors as he continues to develop his defensive skills. It’s possible he’ll get an opportunity at designated hitter, which certainly changes some of the calculus, but that’s no guarantee yet.

From the shared draft boards of Twitter to the unruly outlaws in the Reddit commentsphere, closers seem to have gone scorched earth on the fantasy baseball landscape, turning us all into post-apocalyptic warriors fighting over a precious and disappearing resource. Saves remain concentrated at one end of the closer spectrum but are increasingly diffused amongst the rest of the population. All the while, the ADP tide rises. Chaos.

Cars on fire, people wandering the streets making nonsensical declarations like, “At that point, I felt like I just had to take Jose Leclerc at pick #92”, or “If Kyle Finnegan just takes another step forward, he’ll be a steal at pick #175”; Justin Mason was just spotted wandering the halls of FanGraphs with his head down, muttering over and over that he’s “totally fine with Doval and Lopez as my top-two, it’ll be okay…totally fine…totally fine, tot-…”. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve always found OF a tricky position because with all the superstars at the top, it feels deep until you realize that everyone needs at least 5 in the standard format plus the fact that some will be taken for an infield position where they qualify. In the drafts I’ve done so far, I start to feel the OF pinch pretty early as the foundational options really dry up and you are taking guys with real question marks in your OF2/3 spots if you wait too long. There is plenty of talent and you can definitely hit on those question marks, but if you want to feel good about your OF, consider early investments.

I didn’t list the two major catchers who qualify because you really shouldn’t be using Varsho or Melendez at OF in any circumstance. Their value is greatly improved by being C-eligible, so if you are using them at OF, you are using a sub-optimal lineup.

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This list is a little different than the others. First, RP in FanGraphs Points leagues, where saves and holds have value but are not a category, function fairly differently than in more traditional formats. You don’t need a closer, but having a middle reliever who never gets late-inning work isn’t ideal either. Role matters but it isn’t as simple as “go get the closers to pile up saves.” Second, I value RP differently than the market or any auction calculator. So we are going need a slightly longer intro before I just drop a table on you.
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Now that football season is over, it is time to really prep for baseball drafts! Read the rest of this entry »

When doing my rankings by position, I have to make decisions on who makes the cut to be ranked and who doesn’t. Based on projections, current roster percentages and other data, some players get ranked and others get left out. Before the cut deadline tonight, I wanted to provide an update on a set of players who missed that cut but maybe should not have. Six of these players are utility-only, and therefore didn’t go on positional rankings. Others just weren’t on my radar, so to speak.

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