Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 RP Rankings

From the shared draft boards of Twitter to the unruly outlaws in the Reddit commentsphere, closers seem to have gone scorched earth on the fantasy baseball landscape, turning us all into post-apocalyptic warriors fighting over a precious and disappearing resource. Saves remain concentrated at one end of the closer spectrum but are increasingly diffused amongst the rest of the population. All the while, the ADP tide rises. Chaos.

Cars on fire, people wandering the streets making nonsensical declarations like, “At that point, I felt like I just had to take Jose Leclerc at pick #92”, or “If Kyle Finnegan just takes another step forward, he’ll be a steal at pick #175”; Justin Mason was just spotted wandering the halls of FanGraphs with his head down, muttering over and over that he’s “totally fine with Doval and Lopez as my top-two, it’ll be okay…totally fine…totally fine, tot-…”.

Tut-tut, sweet tulips, we’ll all be okay. There are good tidings but first, the bad.

The Panic Is Real

Kind of. At least, as it pertains to the ever-increasing rarity of capital C, Closers IE full-time guys who you know will get the bulk of a team’s Save opportunities. No mixing, no matching; situational leverage and batter handedness are unlikely to enter the chat.  The carefree days of 15-20 players racking 30+ saves are gone. In their place is a world where half the league will either have fluid bullpen situations at the backend or ones that could become so with one bad run. Fewer top guys, make the ones who are that much more valuable, hence the RP panic that grips most draft boards you’ll see posted.

But it doesn’t have to be that way; at least for a majority of players. League context is incredibly important in accessing all players’ value but especially so when it comes to how you should be drafting RPs in 2023. But let’s just focus on one aspect of that context, as it’s arguably the biggest driver in answering that question.

Does your league have an overall contest, in addition to your league contest?

If so, then sorry chummy; the panic is real, at least if you’re in a draft where the market is quickly draining the capital. To have a realistic shot at the overall prize, you can’t be overly deficient in an individual category and you certainly can’t punt one. If things start going haywire on the board, you might have to make some undesirable overpays, lest you be dependent on a far more speculative path.

That level of panic doesn’t have to exist in leagues without an overall contest, though. If your top-10 closer queue is getting chewed up early, you have options besides just jumping into the chum. In the typical 10 and 12-team leagues, there will be saves to be found on the wire, so rolling with a drafted squad of more questionable options and spec picks can certainly be managed. And, if all else fails, just punting saves is always on the table.

That is all just a long way of saying there is no need to go and join the mob if your league-mates start going RP crazy in the draft. League context is what was on my mind, though, while working on RP ranks and analysis, and I wanted to remind myself to not let it get insular in my writing, relative to my own league makeup, as I’ve recently culled all but one of my leagues without an overall prize and thus might often have to join some RP rabidity.

 

Enough preamble, to the ranks. Here were the Top 60 relievers by rank, along with ADP data from 2022 and 2023. Values are calculated for a 12-team league and ADP is from recent NFBC leagues (n=31):

2022 Top 60 RP

And here are the stats that earned them the above ranks, for the season and also by half:

Enough of the past; to the future,  – all the way to the year 2023. Here are my top 50 relievers, along with projected stats, and followed by all the normal tiers you’re totally used to normally. A sortable chart is at the end.

One note – while I do project reliever wins, they’re not included in the chart because RP wins are the most random and unpredictable of the fantasy world and they’ll just be distracting. If you’re curious, everyone below projects for 2-4 Wins.

Nicklaus Gaut 2023 RP Ranks

 

Tier: I Never Thought I’d Be a Junkie, But Emmanuel Is So Clase

#1 – Emmanuel Clase, CLE (37 ADP, #2 RP)

It might be Edwin Díaz at the top of most ADP but it was Emmanuel Clase who finished as the RP1 in 2022, collecting 42 Saves, with a 1.36 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. But it was his 77 IP (and 70 IP in 2021) that make me want to Emmanu-melt him in a spoon and inject him straight into my 2023 rosters.

He’s probably not going to match Díaz (50% K% in 2022) in strikeouts but his big innings brought more fantasy shine a 28% K%. And there could still be room for growth – Clase greatly increased his strike-throwing in 2023, rising from a 68% Strike% in 2021 to a 75% Strike% in 2022, while increasing to an 18.3% SwStr% in the second half, up from 15.3% SwStr% in the first half. That sounds like more whiffs in the zone and that’s what his zWhiff% bears out, increasing from 16% to 23%.

Clase has shown the past two seasons that he can hold up to a 70 IP load with Cleveland showing a matching desire to let him. Backed by an excellent offense, and with a good bullpen that can keep their leads, the opportunities should be plenty.

Tier: Rhymes With Pickle

# 3 – Josh Hader, SD (49 ADP, #3 RP)

fick·le
/ˈfik(ə)l/
adjective
1. changing frequently, especially as regards one’s loyalties, interests, or affection.
2. when five years of excellence can be washed away by two bad months

When the often first guy off the board finishes with a 5.22 ERA and ranked 41st in value, it’s safe to say he had a no-good, rotten season. And even though he’s still the #3 RP by ADP, what was once seen as the ultimate lock, now seems to have a question mark attached for some.  But did Josh Hader have a bad year or just a few months?

Through June, all was well. Better than well, actually – forking fantastic! In 24.2 IP, Hader had a 1.09 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 45% K%. Oh, and 24 Saves. But the wheels didn’t just fall off; this was like a cartoon car wreck where all the pieces fall off in a heap leaving nothing but a driver holding the steering wheel.

The blowups in July and August are seared in the minds of anyone who rostered him heavily (cough-cough). Six earned runs twice, and three earned thrice. A stretch of allowing runs in five of six outings, for a total of 12 ER in 4.1 IP. Basically, the stuff roto nightmares are made of, made solid by a 15.00 ERA and 2.73 WHIP over 15 IP before the end of August finally came.

But suddenly, the elite closer was back. Hader collected six saves over 1o.1 IP in September/October, running a 0.87 ERA and 0.58 WHIP, with a 33.3% K% and 5% BB%. And in the playoffs, he was virtually unhittable, allowing one hit, walk, and no earned runs over 5.1 IP, facing 18 batters and striking out 10, good for a 55% K% and a negative FIP.

It’s almost like Hader briefly had a case of the nefarious yips but ones that left as completely as they had come.  Kind of like almost, just alll-most, there was something going on off of the field that was incredibly stressful and might have made it hard for anyone to do their job, let alone one that can require riding a razor’s edge of performance excellence. Huh, I wonder.

Me, I’m giving him a mulligan for a couple of bad months and am instead believing in the Hader we saw prior to his summer meltdown – which also happens to be the version we saw most recently. If so, he could be set up for earning some of his most fantasy gold yet, closing for one of baseball’s best teams and in one of the better pitcher’s parks.

Tier: We Know What You Did Last Summer, Atlanta

#4 – Raisel Iglesias, ATL (70 ADP, #6 RP)

Atlanta was playing the long game last season when they acquired Raisel Iglesias less than a year after the Angels had signed him to a 4-year/$58 million contract. Iglesias may have been a luxury last season but with Kenley Jansen set to be a free agent (and now in Boston) in 2023, he was really just cooling his closer jets for a few months.

The Braves are so stacked that just about any closer they roll out would be set up for a lot of fantasy success. Iglesias certainly isn’t just any closer, though, collecting at least 30 Saves in three of the past six seasons. But the three seasons he failed to reach 30 all come with big grains of salt. He just missed in 2017 (28 SV), no one was saving 30 games in 2020 and had 16 Saves last year before losing his job via trade.

All Iglesias knows how to do is rack 30+ Saves and 60+ IP, striking out fools and walking few. Playing for a championship-contending team, I’m not sure what else you could want.

Tier: Checking the Top Tier Boxes

#5 – Ryan Helsley, STL (86 ADP, #8 RP)

#6 – Ryan Pressly, HOU (73 ADP, #7 RP)

#7 – Devin Williams, MIL (60 ADP, #5 RP)

#8 – Jordan Romano, TOR (60 ADP, #4 RP)

#9 – Félix Bautista, BAL (87 ADP, #9 RP)

Any of the five above have the fantasy goods, both in talent and situation, to be a top-five closer in 2023. AKA they’re great pitchers with big strikeout rates and are the unquestioned closer on what will likely be three really good teams, both offensively and defensively. All of their current values are in a similar range (and just a smidge below Iglesias) but if forced to pick one, give me the Ryan Helsley homer pick.

It’s mostly about price, both in terms of actual ADP and how his lesser name/murkier situation might make him easier to acquire (in terms of needed aggressiveness) than Pressly and Romano. Plus, I don’t happen to think the situation is that murky. Giovanny Gallegos might seem like he’s lurking but the Cardinals have pretty clear about how they prefer to use him, and closer ain’t it. Gallegos will still collect a handful of Saves when Helsley’s not available and also grab some via 1.2 IP vulture. But barring an injury, the roles seem clear to me.

Is the above completely soaked in bias because I’ve dreamt for years about others finally joining me on my “You Just Wait Until Ryan Helsley is Finally the Closer! Then You’ll All Be Sorry!” personal soapbox? Maybe. Take it away, Nicklaus from Twitter Past:

Ryan Helsley #SpecsCheck
Who? Well, probably no one unless you're in a SV+HLD league, OR…If you believed Oliver Marmol when he said they didn't envision Gallegos as a traditional closer.
If so, this is the Cardinal I'd want: pic.twitter.com/1H8HYwj1lb

— Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds) April 11, 2022

Helsley may have come back to earth some in the second half but a 2.10 ERA and 38% K% is still a pretty soft landing, and perhaps we can give him some grace for wearing down after blowing past his previous high for innings pitched. Or, maybe I’m just being a homer. Whatever – Helsley/Gaut 2023!

Tier: He Has to Stop Getting 30 Saves, Eventually, Right?

#10 – Kenley Jansen, BOS (97 ADP, #10 RP)

Probably. Okay, maybe. But I don’t think it’s this year, even if Boston’s commitment to winning is currently as weak as their chowder. But one way, or another, Kenley Jansen will find a way to eat up 30 Saves. It’s what he does – excepting the shortened 2020 season (in which his 11 SV put him on a, you guessed it, 30 SV pace), Jansen has finished with at least 33 Saves for the past eight seasons. Kenley. Eats. Saves.

There’s been a lot more indigestion, though, lately. Jansen’s 1.20 WHIP in the second half was well of his norm, with his walk-rate doubling and his whiffs going the other way. Jansen’s 10.1% SwStr% was down from 12.5% SwStr% in the first half (which itself was down from 15% in 2021), with a big chunk coming from a lessened inability to get whiffs in the zone. He posted just a 16% zWhiff% in the second half, down from 20% in the first half, 22% in 2021, and 24% in 2020. This is not the right direction.

But there is a lot to be said for job security and Jansen has as much as anyone after signing a 2-year/$36 million contract and will eat plenty, even if the skills might be in decline. Your fantasy team might have to eat some poor ratios, though, at least on ERA, but if 30+ Saves are your jam, Kenley will be your bread.

Tier: Take a Hike, Carny

I don’t want on your crummy carousel – and I’m not even sure how you can safely operate it while also holding two beers and a cigarette. And much like the carnival, dear readers, I don’t trust any of the bullpens below, whether for talent reasons (or rather, lack thereof), crowded situations, unclear roles, or all of the above. Speaking of which.

Arizona Diamondbacks

No, really; those are the current options. I think #32 Kevin Ginkel is the favorite but the increased velocity on his four-seamer (96.4 mph up from 94.7 mph) didn’t make it less flat, decreasing from 9% less vertical movement vs average (at similar velocity and extension) to 17% below in 2022.

Luckily, the competition isn’t exactly stiff. #49 Joe Mantiply can smoke left-handers (30.4% K%, 0.42 HR/9, 1.96 FIP) but is more often the smoke-ie vs RHP (22% K%, 1.17 HR/9, 3.32 FIP). And (NR) Miguel Castro is still, well, (NR) Miguel Castro. Around a four ERA and seven career Saves.

All of the above is moot, though – clearly, (NR) Mark Melancon will somehow lead the team in Saves, along with a 5.40 ERA and 4.5 K/9.

Philadelphia Phillies

If trying to figure out that Saves situation was any more of a hot mess, it’d be smothered in cheese whiz and falsely labeled delicious.

#45 Craig Kimbrel is the biggest name but I’m not sure where anyone is finding clues pointing toward a return to the magic. As Kimbrel’s velocity continues to dip, the skills (and whiffs) continue to wane. His 95.8 mph average four-seamer was a career low, as was a 12.2% SwStr% that was 10.5% in the second half.

Human WHIP anchor,#50 Gregory Soto, used to be a closer and might have the most vampiric possibilities in Philadelphia, leeching away a handful when the opponent has a slate of tough lefties. But I have a hard time believing that a 13% BB% and Citizens Bank Park will match the way we want them to.

#28 Seranthony Domínguez has to be the favorite, right? But he also has two former closers lurking and hasn’t exactly been a paragon of health for his career. His 51 IP in 2022 was virtually double the combined 25.2 IP he pitched from 2019-2021. If it’s made clear by Spring Training that he’s the locked-in closer, my interest will grow but there are a lot of save vampires waiting to suck away his value.

Tier: To Be Young, Blocked, and Talented

#12 – Jhoan Duran, MIN (150 ADP, #14 RP)

#15 – Andrés Muñoz, SEA (169 ADP, #18 RP)

We’re going to keep the analysis brief because I’m not sure many would disagree on the talent of either. Both pump triple-digit four-seamers, but Andrés Muñoz’s heater is a clear secondary, as he threw his devastating slider 65% in 2023. And I do mean devastating; batters managed just a .126 AVG (.120 xBA) against Muñoz’s slider, with it garnering a 43% CSW% and a 29.3% SwStr%. In fact, of his 96 strikeouts in 2023, 78 were finished off with a slider – and 70 of those were whiffs.

Jhoan Duran, on the other hand, does use his four-seamer primarily (50%), pairing it mostly with an excellent curveball (30%, .127 xBA, .197 xSLG, .166 xwOBA) but also a splitfinger (16%) that averages a ridiculous 97 mph but can run up to 99 mph.

This is an unfair pitch mix. Batters must defend against:

1. The biggest heat – Duran threw 508 four-seamers and 77% were 100 mph, or greater. And of those 391 100+ heaters, 24% were over 102 mph. One hundred and two.
2. But that heat also might sometimes be a splitfinger – Duran limited its use more in the second half (19% to 11%) but the results were even whiffier. The splitty had an 18.6% SwStr% in the first half but a 26.7% SwStr% in the second half. Good luck!
3. Oh, and his best pitch might actually be the high-80s curveball – Duran increased its usage from 27% to 39% in the second half, and while its called-strike rate stayed steady, the whiffs went through the roof. The hook increased from a 34% CSW% to a 47% CSW, going from a 19.4% SwStr% to a 30.1% SwStr%.

As I said, that’s borderline unfair.

But while the talent of Muñoz and Duran can’t be questioned, their fantasy value can be, as they’re both currently serving in setup roles. But I say, not for long! To the highly circumstantial evidence!

Blocked? – Part A: We’re Talking About the Same Jorge López, Right?

I get that the Twins say they’re happy to keep Jhoan Duran as their high-leverage stopper and that they traded for Jorge Lopez last season (with Emilio Pagán also in-house). But did I miss the part where Jorge López became something other than the same, old Jorge López, he of the career 6.04 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 19% K% over his 350 IP prior to 2022?

Oh sure, López was much better overall in 2022, finishing with a 2.54 ERA, 1.18 ERA, and 24% K%, collecting 23 Saves between Baltimore and Minnesota. But there’s a big emphasis on “overall” because what López actually was, was very good (and lucky) in the first half before turning back into the same, old pumpkin in the second half.

Are we going to believe one BABIP-fueled good half or the entirety of his career? I’ll take the latter. And while there is also former closer Pagan to worry about, I’m not so sure the Minnesota fanbase (that has thought they were supposed to be competing the past few seasons) will stay silent if López starts the season by blowing games. And if Duran is doing his thing, his time could come sooner than later.

My ranking is a bet on this happening but even if he doesn’t end up with the role, Duran’s top-notch K-rate and ratios can still make him a big fantasy earner.

Blocked – Part B: We’re Talking About the Same Trader Jerry, Right?

Unlike Duran, Andrés Muñoz’s closer future is being blocked by a really good pitcher, as Paul Sewald finished 2022 with 20 SV, a 2.67 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 30% K%. But while I’m still Team Sewald, we’re talking about Seattle, which has not only started churning out (and sometimes trading) excellent relievers but is still helmed by the trade-iest of GMs in Jerry Dipoto.

And if we put ourselves in Dipoto’s itchy shoes, this is what we’d see:

1. Paul Sewald, who is at the peak of his value and is soon to turn 33, is getting $4.1 million in 2023, with his final arbitration year in 2024. And if he’s the full-time closer (with full-timer Saves) all season, that last year might prove expensive.
2. Andrés Muñoz, clearly the closer of the future, is only 24 years old, but more importantly, is already locked up. He signed a 4-year/$7.5 million in 2021 that has him making just $6 million over the next three years, with Seattle holding club options for 2026-28. Locked. Up.

The Mariners have made some big upgrades and look to again be a contender in 2023. But they’re still not even the best team in their own division and dipoto knows another upgrade might be needed. If so, Sewald represents the juiciest of mid-season (or earlier) trade chips – a legitimate closer with another year of team control left, and one that is somewhat expendable.

Trader Jerry is gonna do what Trader Jerry does and if so, Muñoz might be the one gaining the most fantasy value.

Is this (again) soaked in bias because I’ve had a soft spot for him since first seeing that slidepiece in 2019 but have had his hype train derailed by trades and tommy john? Possibly. But like Duran, Muñoz can earn fantasy bucks even without a full load of Saves, so even if I’m wrong, at least I’ll be wrong in a pile of strikeouts and great ratios.