Chad Young’s 2023 Ottoneu SS Rankings

Going for a quick turn-around with SS after 2B yesterday, since there is so much overlap. In general, I don’t see replacement level as different for SS or 2B, so the tiers will overlap and guys will be in the same spot. There is one exception to that – see if you can spot him!

All of my Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Our regular reminders:
  1. Tiers > Ranks. The specific order of the rankings is less helpful and less meaningful than the tiers. Carlos Correa is #4 and Marcus Semien #5, but Semien is closer to Francisco Lindor for me than he is to Correa. I am always open to discuss my rankings – and I will change them based on convincing feedback – but moving guys around within the tiers just doesn’t matter much. If you want to argue, tell me who is in the wrong tier entirely.
  2. Format Matters. These are for Ottoneu FanGraphs points format, but can be used fairly effectively for SABR Points (bats are slightly more valuable; for pitchers things vary more) and 4×4 (which values the same skills if not the same way).  Also note that, compared to roto leagues (4×4 or 5×5), points leagues have a steeper value curve, so the most expensive players are not quite so expensive in roto. The biggest difference, of course, is that 5×5 values SB highly and this format does not. For 5×5, there are a ton of other rankings out there, including right here on FanGraphs. Make sure to note that redraft rankings are not the same as keeper rankings, and Ottoneu will be more similar to keeper or dynasty. Finally, while it won’t be a full ranking, I’ll be sharing my top tens at each position for 5×5 keeper leagues as part of the Keep or Kut podcast.
  3. Projected P/G are the Basis but not the Ranking. On each table, you will see a projected P/G for each player. For this list, those are based on the Depth Charts projections as of 11/30. You’ll note, however, that I didn’t simply put the top projection first and then work down the list. A few things can cause me to break from the projections. Playing time and role, age and track record, future value and possible breakout potential are all factors that could cause me to move someone around. For example, Ezequiel Tovar has a better projection than a number of players a tier above him, while JP Crawford is ahead of Tyler Freeman.  The former is because I see a lot more risk in Tovar, as an unproven rookie. The latter is because Freeman’s role limits his value relative to his overall projection.
  4. One Position at a Time. Players are ranked for just one position at a time, and will only be ranked at positions where I think they might be/should be used in fantasy. Any player who qualifies at catcher will be left off this list, but I am including 2B/SS eligibles on both this list and the 2B list. The reason is, as noted above, replacement level is similar enough at the two that you can use players at either one.
  5. N/A Means Not Enough Data. If the P/G column reads N/A that either means the projection doesn’t exist or the playing time was too small and I decided to ignore it.
  6. Tiers are Pre-Inflation. In practice, this means these tiers are most applicable to first-year leagues, but you can also adjust for inflation for your league. If you expect 20% inflation in your league, the top tier at SS becomes $36-$42.
Ottoneu FanGraphs Points SS Rankings
Tier Rank Player Eligibility Projected P/G Notes
$30-$35 1 Corey Seager SS 5.77 The shift hurt him more than most, it seems, and he already has the best projection at the position, so he’s the guy for me.
$25-$30 2 Trea Turner SS 5.47 2021 was a down year and he was still nearly 6 P/G and the top SS by that measure. Now he gets a better park, too.
$25-$30 3 Bo Bichette SS 5.64 Steady as she goes. Reliably top five SS. Don’t think he has another gear but very comfortable with him.
$25-$30 4 Carlos Correa SS 5.68 I wanted to move him down based on the apparently incredible injury risk, but he was the #2 SS last year, so this is down and I cant go any further.
$20-$25 5 Marcus Semien 2B/SS 5.02 That projected P/G isn’t great, but it would also be his worst non-60-game season since 2018.
$20-$25 6 Xander Bogaerts SS 5.29 I originally had him below Franco, but I don’t have to dream on him to see a 5.5 P/G season.
$20-$25 7 Francisco Lindor SS 5.02 They aren’t bunched this way in my rankings, but Semien, Xander and Lindor are all safer but less exciting than Wander, Gunnar, and Cruz, and who you prefer might depend on team construction.
$20-$25 8 Wander Franco SS 5.57 This is still a lot of projection and I am not entirely sure he belongs in this tier, but the bat is special, even if not perfect for the format.
$20-$25 9 Gunnar Henderson SS/3B 5.41 Really wrestled with him vs. Wander – I like Gunnar’s power more and that carries a lot of value here, but in the end, he falls just short.
$20-$25 10 Oneil Cruz SS 5.49 If you go look at his rolling K% graph, you’ll see it drop hard at the end of the year, and if you are like me, it gets your heart racing.
$15-$20 11 Andrés Giménez 2B/SS 5.23 Made nice strides in hard hit and barrel rates, while walking more and striking out less and I am not sure he is a finished product yet.
$15-$20 12 Willy Adames SS 5.05 I thought I would get more from Adames last year and he was still a top ten SS by P/G.
$15-$20 13 Bobby Witt Jr. SS/3B 5.33 A bit like Wander, this projection is all, well, projection. Unlike Wander, he hasn’t really looked like a good MLB hitter, as much as a good 5×5 fantasy player.
$10-$15 14 Tim Anderson SS 4.87 Does it feel like there is a huge drop off from 13 to 14? It feels like there might be a huge drop off from 13 to 14.
$10-$15 15 Dansby Swanson SS 4.60 His ups and downs follow his BABIP and I don’t see any real reason to think he’s actually a star-level hitter.
$10-$15 16 Jeremy Peña SS 4.54 Faded mid-season, but then rebounded big-time for September and the post-season. Maybe the league adjusted and he adjusted back?
$10-$15 17 Vaughn Grissom 2B/SS 5.07 Excuse me for a moment, I need to go negotiate another trade to acquire Grissom on a team where I don’t already have him.
$10-$15 18 Ezequiel Tovar SS 5.50 I had him much lower, but scrolling down this list, I think I would rather gamble on his upside than take the others below.
$10-$15 19 Nico Hoerner SS 4.91 wRC+ stayed the same from ’21-’22 and the wOBA went down, but that obsures real progress at the plate – the overall line was steady or down because his BABIP fell.
$6-$9 20 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 4.82 I am very curious where he ends up playing. Roster Resource says 1B but that is with Carpenter in LF, and DH isn’t available any more.
$6-$9 21 Brendan Donovan 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 4.98 He doesn’t make a ton of hard contact, but he makes enough to complement elite plate discipline.
$6-$9 22 Tommy Edman 2B/SS 4.63 Was outside the top 15 SS last year and that was the best we have seen from him since the rabbit ball in 2019.
$6-$9 23 Luis Urías 2B/SS/3B 4.88 Been up and down on him, but 2021 season shows what he can do and it is worth paying up a bit to get that upside from a 25 year old.
$6-$9 24 Spencer Steer 1B/2B/SS/3B 4.85 A case where having good tools across the board might allow him to shine without any single tool being truly great.
$6-$9 25 Anthony Volpe SS 4.98 If he sticks in a MI spot, he has the chance to be a difference maker with his power.
$3-$5 26 Elly De La Cruz SS/3B 5.17 Like Volpe, but maybe more power. Also has just 207 PA at AA.
$3-$5 27 Oswald Peraza SS 4.61 I keep moving him up my list the more I look at him.
$3-$5 28 Royce Lewis SS 5.51 He showed what he can do last year, but injuries are going to impact development and cause long-term concern for durability.
$3-$5 29 Bryson Stott 2B/SS 4.63 I am pretty confident he’ll get on base; I am less confident he’ll be an impact bat beyond that.
$3-$5 30 Thairo Estrada 2B/SS/OF 4.76 There isn’t enough pop in the bat to expect much more than he showed in 2022,
$3-$5 31 Luis Rengifo 2B/SS/3B 4.64 Looking at his rolling wOBA graph, the highs are high and the lows are low, and the whole package is only okay, but what if he puts it all together and the highs stay high and the lows become middles?
$3-$5 32 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 SS/3B 4.57 I thought he would have more power, but it isn’t showing up and that is going to limit his value in FGPTs.
$1-$2 33 Nick Gordon 2B/SS/OF 4.20 While I am high on him, it’s worth remembering that he doesn’t have a clear role and it’s unclear if he’ll be that productive.
$1-$2 34 Jordan Westburg 2B/SS/3B 4.90 He had a nice jump in power in 2022 and I am intrigued to see if it carries over.
$1-$2 35 CJ Abrams 2B/SS 4.37 He’s still an interesting prospect, but keep in mind that even at his peak value, his profile didn’t match this format that well.
$1-$2 36 Amed Rosario SS/OF 4.64 Not that exciting for our purposes but looks like an everyday player likely to hit high in the lineup and that is pretty useful.
$1-$2 37 Christopher Morel 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.78 He’s the opposite of Rosario – could be exciting but could be really bad, too.
$1-$2 38 Javier Báez SS 4.38 I have never rostered Baez, but I think his value has fallen far enough that I might grab him for $1 somewhere.
$1-$2 40 Livan Soto 2B/SS 3.31 Good speed and no power is more interesting in 5×5 than here.
$1-$2 41 Luis García 2B/SS 4.71 The transition from AAA to MLB has not gone well yet, but it’s hard not to be at least a little intrigued by those AAA numbers
$1-$2 42 Santiago Espinal 2B/SS/3B 4.57 He doesn’t have enough power to be reliable and so he is entirely dependant on BABIP, which isn’t a great place to be.
$1-$2 43 Gabriel Arias SS/3B 4.37 It looks like he might carve out a role as a platoon bat and there is some upside in that.
$1-$2 44 Jordan Groshans SS/3B 4.26 Think his upside, at this point, is as a part-time player, but the pedigree is enough that I can’t completely bail.
$1-$2 45 Ji Hwan Bae 2B/SS/OF 4.77 5-10 HR and 25-30 SB isn’t always great for this format, but with a strong hit tool, there is a path to valuable production, a la Edman.
$1-$2 46 Adalberto Mondesi SS 4.14 I almost put him in the $0 tier to warn myself to stay away, but any hot streak and he’ll have great trade value, if nothing else.
$1-$2 47 J.P. Crawford SS 4.32 I can understand having him on the end of your roster just cause you can count on PA, but he doesn’t hit enough to be in your lineup often.
$1-$2 48 Tyler Freeman 2B/SS/3B 4.57 He could explode and find a way to take over a MI spot, but right now that looks unlikely.
$1-$2 49 Ceddanne Rafaela SS/OF 4.96 His prospect status is more based on speed and defense, from what I can tell, and I tend to stay away from those guys.
$1-$2 50 Rodolfo Castro 2B/SS/3B 4.55 I know I just had him as a $0 2B in those rankings, but decided I like him a little more than some of the others around him.
$0 51 Ezequiel Duran 2B/SS/3B 4.48 Not even the highest rated Ezequiel. He is my top Duran (at least among hitters).
$0 52 Brandon Crawford SS 4.40 The last man standing from those really good Giants teams, but he’s in full decline mode.
$0 53 Christian Arroyo 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 4.70 Thought about bumping him up with the Story news, but couldn’t do it. If you want to spend a buck, I won’t argue.
$0 54 Vidal Bruján 2B/SS/OF 4.13 No shifts means his glove/range have more value and his speed could play up, but I suspect he carves out a role as a defensive replacement/pinch runner.
$0 55 Diego Castillo 2B/SS/OF 3.96 He’s a low power MI if things come together and that’s not that exciting.
$0 56 Lenyn Sosa 2B/SS 4.43 His great 2022 (in the minors, anyway) is doing a lot of work because his prior track record isn’t that enticing.
$0 57 Edmundo Sosa SS/3B 4.15 He actually has some impressive top-end EVs, but he doesn’t tap into that often enough and he’s just a bench bat for the Phils anway.
$0 58 Joey Wendle 2B/SS/3B 4.15 Ranking Wendle at SS seems silly but he might actually be the Marlins Opening Day SS!
$0 59 Brice Turang SS 4.14 He is a glove first MI and that has a ton of value in a post-shift world, but I am skeptical the bat will play here.
$0 60 Enrique Hernández 2B/SS/OF 4.41 Above average in 2021 but way below in 2019, 2020, ans 2022.
$0 61 Geraldo Perdomo SS/3B 3.74 Tremendous plate discipline will help a lot, but not sure he has the hit or power tools needed to thrive.
$0 62 Jeter Downs 2B/SS 3.36 You’ve heard of Quad-A guys. Downs right now looks like a AA.5 guy, or something.
$0 63 Nick Maton 2B/SS/OF 4.01 Managed a 26.3% HR/FB rate in MLB after never being over 10.4% (and that was the only time over 10%) in the minors. Don’t think that is sustainable.
$0 64 Jon Berti 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.27 He’s a bench bat that can’t really hit.
$0 65 Jorge Mateo SS 3.83 He’s a bench bat that can’t really hit.
$0 66 Paul DeJong SS 3.87 He’s a bench bat that can’t really hit.
$0 67 Elvis Andrus SS 4.10 Ok, that resurgence with the Sox was crazy, but no way I am betting on a repeat of that.
$0 68 Taylor Walls 2B/SS/3B 3.79 Like Brujan, but less intriguing.
$0 69 David Fletcher 2B/SS 3.96 The fact that he has slid back to a bench spot is a sign of the improving depth in LAA around their stars.
$0 70 Kyle Farmer SS/3B 4.11 No obvious job right now, but the Twins aren’t exactly loaded with guys you expect to play 162.
$0 72 Dylan Moore 2B/SS/OF 4.16 Some pop and some speed but not enough of anything to really carry him in FanGraphs Points scoring.
$0 73 Willi Castro 2B/SS/OF 3.97 He’s had some good showings in Triple-A but it doesn’t look like it will translate for him.
$0 76 Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS 4.10 Volpe will need space and there is no reason IKF should spend the full season on the Yankees roster.
$0 77 Miguel Rojas 1B/SS 4.05 The rare case where the Dodgers want a guy and I just…don’t get it.
$0 79 Jose Barrero SS 3.11 I guess someone has to be last.

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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1 year ago

Great stuff as always, Chad! Thanks! One guy I’m curious about is Jeremy Pena. I look at him and see someone in the Bryson Stott range, but so many folks are high on him. Is there something particular you’re seeing that indicates he’ll outperform those projections?