Jake Mailhot’s 2023 Ottoneu Second Base Rankings

We continue our tour of the infield with my second base rankings. I’m hoping to wrap up these rankings pretty quickly with the two up-the-middle positions this week and finish the rest next week.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Traditionally, shortstop has been the lowest non-catcher position in the scarcity hierarchy but second base is really pushing it this year. Mookie Betts stands alone on top of the rankings but he’s bound to lose his eligibility after this season. There are some solid options after him but once you get to 10 or 11 players deep, there’s a group of players with big questions surrounding their production and then a significant drop off. Trevor Story’s injury certainly didn’t help either. Because Ottoneu requires you to start a middle infielder in addition to the two standard positions, the scarcity at second base makes planning your strategy for these three positions pretty tricky.

There are a number of bottom-tier options that do have some potential upside if you’re open to taking on a bit of risk. If you’re stuck with a mid-tier player, one of these youngsters could be a nice partner to give you a bit more ceiling at the position if that sleeper does break out. The other nice thing about the mid- and lower-tier options is that so many of them are eligible at multiple positions. Hitting your games played caps is incredibly important in Ottoneu and these flexible players give you plenty of options when you’re filling out your daily lineups.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Brandon Lowe – I think the big difference here is a belief that Lowe’s struggles last year were all injury related. A back injury hampered him all season long and he ended up missing large portions of the year because of it. His ailment obviously sapped a lot of his power last season — his isolated power dropped over 100 points to a career-low of .162 — but he did show some improvement in other areas of his approach. His strikeout rate was a career-best 22.9% and most of that was due to a significant improvement in two-strike counts. His overall swinging strike rate and contact rates were within the realm of his career norms, but when the at-bat was on the line, he was able to reduce his whiff rate leading to a lower strikeout rate. Assuming his back is fully healed this year and his two-strike approach sticks, he’s poised to be one of the most potent bats at a very shallow position.

Ryan McMahon – It’s always tricky rostering Rockies players since their home/road splits often require a platoon mate to pair with them when they’re playing outside of Coors Field. McMahon isn’t necessarily an exception to that suggestion — his away split is a decidedly not-nice 69 point difference in wOBA — but he made some key improvements under-the-hood that could indicate a higher ceiling for him. He reduced his overall swing rate by more than three points and increased his zone contact rate up to 83%. Those two changes led to some higher contact quality and a career-low swinging strike rate. It didn’t necessarily show up in his results — his strikeout rate was still a bit elevated and his power output actually fell from his previous three-year norms — but the adjustments indicate a better approach at the plate.

Brandon Drury – When a journeyman enjoys a mid-career breakout, it’s always important to ask if it’s sustainable. You can read more about my thoughts on Drury’s career-year last season in my deep dive from December but it essentially boils down to this: he made significant improvements to his batted ball quality while also honing his approach at the plate to make contact a lot more often. And with eligibility at three positions, he’s a flexible piece of depth for any Ottoneu team.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – It breaks my heart to put Chisholm down here because he’s an extremely fun player to watch. His combination of power and speed make him one of the most dynamic young players in baseball. Unfortunately, only one of those tools will be useful in Ottoneu making him a much more valuable player in 4×4 or 5×5 formats. Then, there’s the added complication of a position move, as the Marlins have decided to try him out in centerfield this year. Maybe he takes to the transition without a hitch, but it also presents some uncertainty that, combined with his back injury last year, makes me hesitate to rank him any higher. I really hope I have to eat my words at the end of the year.

Luis Arraez – I like Arraez and Chad and I have him in the same tier, but I think I’m a little lower on him. Arraez’s old school, contact-heavy approach is pretty unique in this day and age and his move to Miami’s pitcher’s paradise shouldn’t hurt him as much since he wasn’t hitting for power anyway. But with an offensive foundation so heavily reliant on good outcomes on all his batted balls, he’s more susceptible to bad luck than most. His career BABIP is .336 and none of his individual seasons look like extreme outliers, but any dip in that metric will have significant effects on his results.

Isaac Paredes – Paredes finally got a chance at near-full-time at-bats in Tampa Bay last season and produced a pretty good 116 wRC+ in just under 400 plate appearances. His excellent plate discipline provides him with a solid foundation but I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate his power output without some significant changes to his batted ball profile. He blasted 20 home runs last year and his isolated power was .230, the highest it’s been at any level in his professional career. Despite all those extra-base hits, his barrel and hard hit rates were just 6.4% and 37.6%, respectively. Both marks are below league average wouldn’t normally indicate such a high ISO. He was able to hit so many homers because he optimizes his batted balls for pulled contact in the air. Still, without improving his batted ball quality, there’s some risk that he won’t produce as much power this year.