Chad Young’s 2023 Ottoneu SP Rankings

Ottoneu FanGraphs Points SP Rankings
Tier Rank Player Eligibility DC Projected P/IP Notes
$45-$55 1 Jacob deGrom SP 6.28 I know the IP are risky, but if I knock him down to to 110-115 IP, he is still comes out to $43 based on DC projections.
$38-$44 2 Corbin Burnes SP 5.42 The other rankers I trust most have him as #1, and that is probably fair.
$38-$44 3 Spencer Strider SP/RP 5.64 I started with him much lower – how much can we really trust a guy with such a limited track record? But I couldn’t keep him down.
$38-$44 4 Carlos Rodón SP 5.59 People want to push him down due to risk, but he looks healthy to me.
$38-$44 5 Shane McClanahan SP 5.45 Yes, his velo trended down, but his projection is already closer to his second half than his full-season line.
$33-$37 6 Brandon Woodruff SP 5.01 He doesn’t have the upside of some of the others in the top 10, but I am extremely confident I’ll get value from him.
$33-$37 7 Aaron Nola SP 4.93 I think the projections are low due to 2021, and I think his adjustments have put that behind him.
$33-$37 8 Gerrit Cole SP 5.45 HR have become a real problem and that might be more park than talent, but it doesn’t change the hit to his value in this format.
$33-$37 9 Max Scherzer SP 5.25 He’s had some injuries on and off that have limited his innings and at 38, I worry that will get worse.
$33-$37 10 Shohei Ohtani Util/SP 5.48 This is just his SP value, so I am sure it seems low to you.
$33-$37 11 Tyler Glasnow RP 5.56 Purely by DC projections, he should be even higher, but I just can’t get comfortable with 160+ IP.
$33-$37 12 Justin Verlander SP 5.09 The year is 2034 and fantasy players are fading 51-year-old Verlander because surely THIS is the year age catches up with him, right?
$33-$37 13 Sandy Alcantara SP 4.74 The lack of strikeouts relative to his peers in the elite tier will always hold his value down in FGPTs.
$28-$32 14 Shane Bieber SP 4.83 Everyone faded him last year. Don’t make that mistake again.
$28-$32 15 Zack Wheeler SP 4.80 If he throws 200 innings again, this will look low.
$28-$32 16 Luis Castillo SP 4.91 He’s historically kept HR down and now has a park that isn’t actively trying to murder him.
$21-$27 17 Framber Valdez SP 4.81 I particularly like him in H2H leagues, because you can rely on good numbers every. Time. Out.
$21-$27 18 Kevin Gausman SP 4.98 Prior to ’21, HR were an issue, thanks to a decent number of fly balls. Now Toronto is moving the fences in and not by a small amount.
$21-$27 19 Max Fried SP 4.54 Every projection system seems to see regression, based on an increase in HR primarily, and I am willing to bet against that.
$21-$27 20 Zac Gallen SP 4.64 More curve and cutter, less change. He also got more horizontal movement on his cutter. No reason he can’t keep that up.
$21-$27 21 Blake Snell SP 5.04 Based on how I rank them, I suspect I’ll have a decent number of Glasnow-Snell 1-2s where they are available.
$21-$27 22 Luis Severino SP 4.78 Volume is obviously a concern, but I think people are sleeping on how good he has been over the last few years when he pitches.
$21-$27 23 Dylan Cease SP 4.74 He went slider/four-seam (43%/40%) in ’22 instead of four-seam/slider (47%/31%) like in ’21 and it seems to have helped increase his GB%, limiting HR, but that high BB% still makes me anxious.
$16-$20 24 Clayton Kershaw SP 4.74 Kershaw made big gains in 2022 but that was mostly in HR/FB rate – but even with regression there, he is still knocking on the door of the top 20.
$16-$20 25 George Kirby SP 4.62 If you don’t walk anyone and limit HR, you are probably going to be a pretty successful SP.
$16-$20 26 Logan Webb SP 4.44 Extreme HR suppression thanks to a combination of a favorable park and an elite GB rate make him very attractive for FGPTs, but it wouldn’t take many extra HR for his value to plummet.
$16-$20 27 Alek Manoah SP 4.15 Given his track record, I think we might see more K this year – over 9 K/9 – helping boost his value above his DC projection.
$16-$20 28 Joe Musgrove SP 4.41 Don’t be fooled by the sub-3 ERA, but don’t let that skepticism distract from the fact that he was still really good.
$16-$20 29 Chris Sale RP 5.07 I think the projections are way low on the P/IP but maybe too high on the innings.
$16-$20 30 Robbie Ray SP 4.58 His performance wasn’t that different from the Cy Young campaign and the true results are somewhere in the middle.
$10-$15 31 Alex Cobb SP 4.80 His LOB% is low because his performance slips with men on, but in 2022 he wasn’t even bad with men on. That leaves him with an inflated ERA that doesn’t reflect his performance – plus, we don’t even care about ERA!
$10-$15 32 Dustin May SP 4.91 Was last year just working back from injury or a real cause for concern? I think the former; I’ll be cautious in case it’s the latter.
$10-$15 33 Cristian Javier SP/RP 4.51 He’s sliding down my rankings because while I believe he can keep BABIPs low thanks to the type of batted ball he gives up, I expect the HR/FB rate to climb and that’s going to hurt a lot in this format.
$10-$15 34 Jesús Luzardo SP 4.35 He put together a really solid year but still needs to show he can handle a full-season workload.
$10-$15 35 Nestor Cortes SP 4.27 He was a tier down for me before, but as much as his success feels unsustainable, he is already showing he can sustain it.
$10-$15 36 Hunter Greene SP 4.63 No denying the talent, and his last 8 starts: 1.75 ERA, 2.74 xFIP and nearly 13 K/9.
$10-$15 37 Yu Darvish SP 4.48 He’s had pretty aggressive fluctuations in his BB and HR/FB rates and I just can’t trust him as a result.
$10-$15 38 Nick Lodolo SP 4.79 LHH have a .183 wOBA against himl RHH have a .344. His value will depend on how far down he can bring that number vs. RHH.
$10-$15 39 Julio Urías SP 4.08 Remember that even if you think he can continue to post an ERA that beats his ERA predictors, this format effectively is scored on those predictors and not ERA itself.
$10-$15 40 Pablo López SP 4.50 How much should we expect the trade to hurt him? 10.4% HR/FB rate at home for his career vs. 16.3% on the road, but Target isn’t a meaningfully better power park than loanDepot.
$10-$15 41 Logan Gilbert SP 4.36 He’s a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, and while there is a lot to like, there is reason to be nervous, as well.
$10-$15 42 Triston McKenzie SP 4.14 I look like I am low on him, but compared to the projections, I am actually kinda bullish. The market is just bullisher.
$10-$15 43 Freddy Peralta SP 4.33 I keep wondering if he should be a tier up from here, given how good he has been. Is going over $12 really a bad idea?
$10-$15 44 Lance Lynn SP 4.26 Even with a couple hiccups, his August/September were excellent and may represent him rounding back into form.
$10-$15 45 Kyle Wright SP 4.25 He fell off enough that I am a not excited about him in double figures, even if I think this is the right tier.
$6-$9 46 Grayson Rodriguez SP 4.38 Hoepfully he is in Baltimore from the get-go cause I cannot wait to see him pitch in the bigs.
$6-$9 47 Lance McCullers Jr. SP 4.28 The walks are just always going to be there, but there are enough K and GB to keep him at the high end of this tier.
$6-$9 48 Brady Singer SP 4.38 Courtesy of a great article by Jake Mailhot, Singer lowered his release point on his sinker and added vertical movement, which seems to have driven the breakout.
$6-$9 49 Jordan Montgomery SP 4.32 The improvements with STL were all within what he had done previously – no new highs in K or lows in BB – except for HR/9 but that park change explains that.
$6-$9 50 Jeffrey Springs SP/RP 4.37 Managed the transition to the rotation seamlessly.
$6-$9 51 Drew Rasmussen SP 4.24 The velo dropped, even relative to his 2021 starts, and he was fine – maybe just holding back to go a little deeper? But I’ll be watching that in spring.
$6-$9 52 Andrew Heaney SP 4.85 Heaney can take his new slider with him to Texas plus he gets a pretty nice park upgrade for a guy with homer issues.
$6-$9 53 Aaron Ashby SP/RP 5.09 The Brewers seem committed to keeping him out of the rotation but I’d urge patience.
$6-$9 54 Jon Gray SP 4.36 I thought maybe his HR/FB rate would come down more than from 15.1% to 14.2%, but his career HR/FB rate at Coors is 16.3% and career outside Coors it is 13.2%. So there is maybe a little more regression coming but not much.
$6-$9 55 Sonny Gray SP 4.28 The drop in K-rate is a bit concerning and stops me from pushing him up a tier.
$6-$9 56 Joe Ryan SP 4.15 I am a bit higher than the projections because I think he can bring down the BB rate, based on his track record.
$6-$9 57 Edward Cabrera SP 4.17 He had two blow ups – at Houston and vs. the Dodgers – and otherwise he was brilliant.
$6-$9 58 Tony Gonsolin SP 3.82 He isn’t super exciting, but unexciting isn’t bad either.
$6-$9 59 Trevor Rogers SP 4.64 Rogers improved as the season went on, and part of that was changes to pitch mix and shape. If he can get that right, we all remember 2021, right?
$6-$9 60 Reid Detmers SP 4.04 After his most recent call up, he increased slider usage and velocity, got more whiffs, and the results were excellent. Real upside.
$6-$9 61 Chris Bassitt SP 4.11 Had a big jump in GB% in 2022 and needs that to stick given his new park and his new park’s new dimensions.
$6-$9 62 Charlie Morton SP 4.56 Velo was down, he threw fewer strikes, and he was more homer-prone. Feels like a recipe for disaster.
$6-$9 63 Lucas Giolito SP 4.13 He’s been working on some changes this off-season but without knowing more about what those are, I can’t see spending much on him.
$6-$9 64 Patrick Sandoval SP 4.38 Check his xFIPs and you’ll quickly see how much HR/FB fluctuations impacted him the last two years.
$6-$9 65 Tarik Skubal SP 4.55 I think he can return this value with <100 IP and then go on to be a great value in the future.
$6-$9 66 Kodai Senga SP 4.69 There might not be a pitcher on this list I am less confident valuing. His market value in mock auctions seems to be $7-$10, and that seems fair-ish to me.
$6-$9 67 Alex Wood SP 4.60 He’s probably an $8-$10 SP if you could promise me he would be in the rotation but he needs to be healthy.
$6-$9 68 Garrett Whitlock SP/RP 4.31 His 8 starts showed he can make that transition without losing much; now he just has to stick.
$6-$9 69 Hunter Brown SP/RP 4.97 I say $3-$5, but I suspect in some league I’ll decide $6 is fine.
$6-$9 70 Brayan Bello SP 4.41 After a couple relief appearances, he finished with eight really strong starts, including much needed BB% improvement.
$3-$5 71 Ken Waldichuk SP 4.30 Made big improvements in BB% in AAA with Oakland and they mostly stuck in MLB. Now he has to get the Ks back.
$3-$5 72 Jack Flaherty SP 3.96 The last couple years have been ugly, so this is just a bet that he can get healthy and re-set his career.
$3-$5 73 Andrew Painter SP 3.62 I don’t believe they are really going to give him a spot in the rotation to start the year, but I do think that tells us they are serious about him being up this year.
$3-$5 74 Ricky Tiedemann SP NA If you promised me 70ish or more innings in MLB this year, he would be up a tier.
$3-$5 75 Roansy Contreras SP 3.86 The velocity went down and the ERA went up. The talent is there but if the velocity doesn’t come back – and stay – he won’t reach his potential.
$3-$5 76 Zach Eflin SP/RP 3.96 He walks no one and I trust the Rays to set him up to succeed.
$3-$5 77 Tanner Houck RP 5.03 He has limited HR effectively but his K-rate will determine whether he has meaningful upside or is just end-of-the-rotation fodder for FanGraphs Points leagues.
$3-$5 78 Ross Stripling SP/RP 3.87 He was really good in 2018-19 and then his control failed him. He found it again in 2022 and if he keeps it, this will be a great value.
$3-$5 79 Hayden Wesneski SP/RP 3.44 I really like what he brings to the table but be prepared to wait for him to get a seat at that table.
$3-$5 80 Shane Baz SP NA I would rather stash him than any of the top prospects, but some of those prospects are going to help sooner.
$3-$5 81 Walker Buehler SP NA Like Baz but I prefer Baz.
$3-$5 82 Ranger Suárez SP 3.98 He needs to refind some of those K, but if you look at this last two seasons combined, there is something really interesting at play.
$3-$5 83 Aaron Civale SP 3.91 His last 8 starts, after returning from injury, he had more than a K per inning, less than 1.5 BB/9, and a 5.44 P/IP. He probably can’t repeat that but he’s basically free and that leaves a lot of room to regress.
$3-$5 84 Marcus Stroman SP 4.05 He gets the job done. Not much more, though.
$3-$5 85 Eury Pérez SP 3.31 Handling AA at 19 is super exciting.
$3-$5 86 Justin Steele SP 4.32 Ditched the sinker to focus four-seam/slider and results were strong – hitters just could not barrel him. I am not convinced is something I want to place a sizable bet on.
$3-$5 87 Nathan Eovaldi SP 4.18 Worried his velocity has just fallen too far to continue to be successful.
$3-$5 88 Carlos Carrasco SP 4.15 I have no issue going to $3 but realistically, I will lean into someone else at this tier for $4-$5 with more future value.
$3-$5 89 Luis Garcia SP 4.11 I don’t think he is a difference-maker, but he can eat some innings and provide some value that way.
$3-$5 90 José Berríos SP 3.88 I have always been low on him but he can’t possibly be as bad as he was in ’22 right? Right?!
$1-$2 91 Merrill Kelly 켈리 SP 3.79 I rode him throughout 2022 in multiple leagues but I just don’t buy it happening again, so I can’t spend much.
$1-$2 92 Daniel Espino Util NA The injury risk hurts, but he moves up a lot if he stays healthy.
$1-$2 93 Taj Bradley SP 3.89 Espino is more exciting. Bradley is a bit safer and more ready.
$1-$2 94 Brandon Pfaadt SP 3.84 I don’t think he’s as exciting as the others in this bunch, but he could be up to start the year.
$1-$2 95 Gavin Williams SP NA He’s closer to the two above him than many realize.
$1-$2 96 Sean Manaea SP 4.17 The GB are creeping down and the BB are creeping up. He probably rebounds but I don’t think there is enough upside to take the risk.
$1-$2 97 DL Hall SP/RP 5.38 The strikeouts and ground balls are really exciting, but if he can’t throw enough innings he may get stuck in the pen.
$1-$2 98 Max Meyer SP/RP NA I’m assuming nothing for 2023, so this is all about what he can do next year.
$1-$2 99 Kyle Harrison SP 4.07 Good prospect in an org I trust to help him develop, but not as elite as Espino, Tiedemann, Painter or Eury.
$1-$2 100 Drey Jameson SP/RP 3.88 The sinker got an absurd GB% and the slider gets a ton of chases, plus his AA numbers suggest some untapped potential in Ks. That’s a nice base to build from.
$1-$2 101 David Peterson SP/RP 5.25 It’s a matter of when, not if, he gets into the rotation, and if he is one of my last SP, I am fine waiting on him or using him in the pen short-term.
$1-$2 102 Tylor Megill SP/RP 5.03 Same.
$1-$2 103 Braxton Garrett SP 4.42 He is anywhere from 6th to 10th in the Marlins rotation. That’s all that stands between him and being more like a $4-$5 guy.
$1-$2 104 MacKenzie Gore SP 3.77 He lost velocity and saw a decline in K%, increase in hard contact, and an increase in fly balls and I am just not sure I believe he can maintain the velo he needs or learn to pitch without it.
$1-$2 105 Jose Quintana SP 4.19 Weird ride. BABIP and HR/FB ruined a solid 2020, then exploded a bad 2021 when he walked everyone but increased his K. In 2022, he brought down the BB, but lost the K and got huge BABIP and HR/FB help. Combine all three and that looks about right for true performance.
$1-$2 106 Tyler Anderson SP 3.42 With that low a K-rate, you are betting big on his HR/FB rate by picking him up.
$1-$2 107 Kyle Bradish SP 3.99 Second call up, there was less hard contact, more IFFB, more GB, and basically just less opportunity for damage.
$1-$2 108 Jameson Taillon SP 3.72 He had strong enough home numbers that I can’t really buy into a post-Yankee-Stadium boost.
$1-$2 109 Frankie Montas SP 4.33 If he were fully healthy, I would go towards double digits for him. Instead, I am not sure I even want him, but I can’t pass him up here.
$1-$2 110 Cade Cavalli SP/RP 3.72 Watch his control because if he can find the zone and hit his spots, he could be good. And if he can’t…
$1-$2 111 Clarke Schmidt SP/RP 4.54 He can pound the zone with his slider and batters can’t square it up but neither of his FB look that impressive.
$1-$2 112 Luis Ortiz SP/RP 4.05 He throws hard and he’s fun to watch, but he needs to show that he knows where the ball is going.
$1-$2 113 Tyler Mahle SP 3.98 Call me when he looks healthy in spring training. I don’t love the upside and shoulders are too scary.
$1-$2 114 Spencer Turnbull RP 4.35 There’s a lot of risk, but go back and look at what he did in 2022-21, cause he was actually quite good.
$1-$2 115 Steven Matz SP/RP 4.39 He’s coming off an MCL injury and it’s unclear if his velocity will be back, so I can’t go too high on him, but I like him at the end of a roster.
$1-$2 116 Miles Mikolas SP 3.82 Despite the low K totals, he was actually solid by P/IP last year, but it’s a very risky profile for this format.
$1-$2 117 Adam Wainwright SP 3.47 Like his teammate but older and not quite as good in 2022.
$1-$2 118 Ryne Nelson SP/RP 3.39 He is 70% fastball and gives up relative hard contact in the air off it. A high IFFB% kept it from being a disaster, but how sustainable is that?
$1-$2 119 Gavin Stone SP 4.58 The numbers are more enticing than the scouting reports (not that the scouting reports are bad).
$1-$2 120 Bobby Miller SP 4.31 I like Stone better, but I am no scout.
$1-$2 121 Mitch Keller SP 3.79 He got himself above replacement level last year and the ability to tweak and improve could mean there is more coming.
$1-$2 122 Cody Morris SP 5.23 In 23.2 MLB IP, he walked too many and didn’t strike out enough, but the MiLB K numbers are crazy impressive, so you can understand why people are interested.
$1-$2 123 Taijuan Walker SP 3.48 He was really good in 2022 but unless there is another level with the K’s, he still isn’t that valuable in this format.
$1-$2 124 Bailey Ober SP 3.88 Did you realize how good he was last year? Just 11 starts but 5.42 P/IP! Regression and a lack of a rotation spot hurt though.
$1-$2 125 Martín Pérez SP 3.77 He was really good in 2022 but unless there is another level with the K’s, he still isn’t that valuable in this format.
$1-$2 126 Noah Syndergaard SP 3.21 I am paying $1, maybe $2, for the Dodgers magic, not for Syndergaard himself. What do they know that I don’t?
$1-$2 127 Michael Kopech SP 3.70 I simply have no idea what to make of him – the talent is there but there is no consistency in his performance and so I am staying away.
$1-$2 128 Kyle Muller SP/RP 4.35 His AAA performance represented a big improvement in his walk rates, but it didn’t hold in MLB. If he can solve that, he gets interesting – I’ll be watching that early.
$1-$2 129 José Urquidy SP 3.43 So few strikeouts means his margin for error in this format is way too thin. And while he seems to beat his FIP, that doesn’t help you much here.
$1-$2 130 Kenta Maeda RP 4.09 He is almost 35, was not good in 2021 and didn’t pitch in 2022.
$0 131 Michael Lorenzen SP 3.67 His final few starts, post-injury, he changed his pitch mix and saw some improved results, but he still walked way too many. I could see taking a flyer on him, but no more.
$0 132 Corey Kluber SP 3.39 No upside any more but he can still put up solid starts.
$0 133 Bryce Elder SP 3.91 He’s ready so he is worth a shot, but I don’t love the K upside so I’ll be quick to move on, too.
$0 134 Ian Anderson SP 3.73 He leans on his four-seamer. In 2020 it got called strikes at an above average rate; in 2021 it got whiffs at an above average rate; in 2022 it got neither. Watch the results on that pitch.
$0 135 Wilmer Flores SP NA He should be universally watchlisted.
$0 136 Michael Wacha SP 3.59 I am not adverse to rostering him, but I want to see where he lands first.
$0 137 Simeon Woods Richardson SP/RP 3.40 He is on the outside looking in for the rotation and that got even worse with Pablo Lopez coming to town. Is the upside big enough to outweigh that?
$0 138 Nate Pearson RP 4.45 His walk and HR rates have been problematic even in AAA.
$0 139 Kyle Gibson SP 3.71 He has been most effective when he can keep HR down and his new park is a big improvement in that regard.
$0 140 Anthony DeSclafani SP 3.70 I hate to make everything about velocity, but for him, I think it is about getting his velo back.
$0 141 Drew Smyly SP 3.80 Velo and K are trending down, and I think he is teetering on the edge of disaster.
$0 142 Chris Paddack SP NA He’s looking to be back late in the season, and if the rehab starts look interesting, I’ll consider buying in.
$0 143 Eduardo Rodriguez SP 4.14 Velocity loss and injury concerns are keeping me away.
$0 144 Matt Manning SP 3.42 He showed some success in 2022 and is reportedly having a normal off-season, so maybe he can build on what he did last year.
$0 145 Johnny Cueto SP 3.17 He tied a career best BB% in 2022 and posted his lowest HR/FB% in more than a decade. That can’t continue at age 36, can it?
$0 146 Mike Soroka SP/RP 3.79 For all he has been through, would love to see him return to form, but there is too much risk until we get closer to the season and learn more.
$0 147 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 SP 4.61 It’s not just the lost 2022. He was not that valuable when he pitched in 2021 either.
$0 148 Matthew Liberatore SP 3.71 If he pitches better in AAA, I’ll look at him again.
$0 149 James Paxton RP 4.01 I thought he might be a flyer, but I think there are enough guys I prefer that he’s going to be on my watchlists.
$0 150 Kyle Freeland SP 2.65 He’s playable on the road, but not good enough in that number of innings to warrant rostering. If you need a streamer though?
$0 151 Keegan Thompson SP/RP 4.18 As surprisingly good as he was in 2022, his P/IP was just 3.93. He needs to be meaningfully better to have much value.
$0 152 Jose Suarez SP 3.66 The projections are low on him compared to his 2022 performance but if he can bring his GB rate back up, he could limit the risk.
$0 153 Joey Cantillo SP 4.10 Cleveland has helped him really improve his velocty and there could be a breakout.
$0 154 Kutter Crawford SP/RP 4.05 He probably gets a shot to start at some point, and when he does, I might stream him, if I need innings.
$0 155 Sixto Sánchez RP 5.12 He is aiming to be ready for spring training and that, in and of itself, is impressive. I just wouldn’t want to bet on more than that.
$0 156 Josiah Gray SP 3.42 I know the talent is supposed to be special but he looks like he needs a major overhaul to unlock it.
$0 157 Adrian Morejon RP 4.46 He was a RP last year but was apparently set to be the 5th starter before Lugo joined the Padres, so he is worth watching as a SP.
$0 158 Ryan Pepiot SP 3.71 If the walks come down, I’ll get interested again.
$0 159 Bailey Falter SP 3.79 There is a lot of risk and I am not sure the minor league strikeout numbers suggest that much upside for his P/IP.
$0 160 Mick Abel SP 2.61 If he shows improved control, he gets interesting.
$0 161 Cole Irvin SP 3.39 At least he left Oakland for another friendly park.
$0 162 Rich Hill SP 3.54 He’s 43 by opening day and any decline at all from last year puts him well below replacement level.
$0 163 Tyler Wells SP 3.28 He’s a watchlist guy, cause there is clearly talent, but he hasn’t shown me enough to want to place a bet today.
$0 164 Shintaro Fujinami #N/A NA As a SP, I am just not sure there is enough to get excited about. As a RP? Maybe a flyer.
$0 165 Graham Ashcraft SP 3.52 If he can find more K, the GB rate will help him play up, but there isn’t enough to roster him yet.
$0 166 Eric Lauer SP 3.73 Too many BB and HR to have much value here.
$0 167 Cal Quantrill SP 3.32 As a Guardians fan, I worry about regression. As an Ottoneu manager, he wasn’t even that useful last year.
$0 168 John Means RP 4.37 The new dimensions might be enough to make him useful, but given he’ll be out half the season, I am not interested today.
$0 169 Dylan Bundy SP 2.82 Big velocity drop from an already iffy base.
$0 170 Germán Márquez SP 3.42 Could he have become something special if he got out of Coors? Maybe, but he’s not even useful on the road these days.
$0 171 Matthew Boyd RP 3.90 Is he all the way back? Maybe. Is being all the way back to what he was exciting? Not for fantasy.
$0 172 Ryan Yarbrough SP/RP 2.99 If he can get back to the lower BB%, he might have a little upside.
$0 173 Adrian Sampson 샘슨 SP 3.34 All his gains were in HR/FB rate and that isn’t a great bet to continue give his track record.
$0 174 Austin Voth SP/RP 3.50 Usually swing guys look better because of how well they pitch as a RP. Voth was the opposite – he was a better SP than you might have realized.
$0 175 Zach Plesac SP 3.18 2020 isn’t coming back.
$0 176 Nick Martinez SP/RP 3.83 I was ready to include him on my RP list but he is apparently the Padres 4th starter. They might need more SP.
$0 177 Seth Lugo RP 3.90 Let someone else pick him up, then you can add him when he gets moved back to the bullpen.
$0 178 Dane Dunning SP 4.32 Looks like he won’t have a job to start the year and he isn’t nearly good enough to roster as a prospect.
$0 179 Louie Varland SP 3.91 He was interesting last year but he looks like he might be really far away from a rotation spot.
$0 180 Caleb Kilian SP/RP 4.23 He walked everyone in his brief time in MLB. Like, everyone everyone.
$0 181 JP Sears SP/RP 4.24 Some interesting minor league numbers to keep an eye on.
$0 182 Paul Blackburn SP 3.66 We all enjoyed the ride in the first half but you knew it would come to an end and boy did it ever.
$0 183 Dean Kremer SP 3.41 Too much needs to go right for him to be useful.
$0 184 Marco Gonzales SP 2.99 His changeup was his only pitch with above average swinging strike rate, and it was only barely above average.
$0 185 Jake Odorizzi SP 4.39 It’s unclear how he’ll be used after they improved the rotation via FA.
$0 186 Luis Patiño SP 3.70 I don’t really see any pitches that have performed well consistently against MLB hitting and that makes me think he has a long way to go.
$0 187 Daniel Lynch SP 3.70 He hasn’t yet conquered the high minors, let alone the majors.
$0 188 Stephen Strasburg RP 3.52 I’d love to see him pitch again; I am unsure that will happen.
$0 189 Elieser Hernandez SP/RP 4.77 Not sure what the Mets plan with him, but I guess I’ll be watching to see.
$0 190 Yusei Kikuchi SP/RP 4.31 His HR/FB% is consistently high and he shifted his pitch mix away from his sinker in 2022, which led to a more fly balls. And now Toronto is moving in the fences…
$0 191 Nick Pivetta SP 3.55 He has solid stretches but has never put up a meaningfully valuable FanGraphs Points season.
$0 192 Zack Greinke SP 3.25 I would have guessed he had retired. He has not.
$0 193 JT Brubaker SP 3.82 Eating innings is good. Doing it at 3.84 P/IP last year wasn’t helpful though.
$0 194 Madison Bumgarner SP 2.96 Just not the guy he once was and he isn’t going to be again.
$0 195 James Kaprielian SP 3.25 His fastball just isn’t fooling anyone, posting an abysmal 22.3% CSW.
$0 196 Wade Miley SP 3.27 Low K, high BB, but if he can keep the H and HR down, he could be useful again. Just a tough profile to rely on.
$0 197 Mitch White SP/RP 3.86 He’s Tiedemann’s placeholder.
$0 198 Cole Winn SP 3.50 Not a lot to be excited about, especially when he can’t find the zone at all.
$0 199 Dakota Hudson SP 3.43 Pretty uninteresting.
$0 200 Patrick Corbin SP 3.56 He got some of his velocity back but not the chases or the whiffs.
$0 201 Kyle Hendricks SP 3.00 Nah.
$0 202 Adrian Houser SP 3.86 He’s on this list because he is rostered in 17% of leagues and those managers should cut him when they can.
$0 203 Brad Keller SP/RP 3.77 No appeal for FanGraphs Points.
$0 204 Chris Flexen 플렉센 SP/RP 3.71 He’s played an important role for the Mariners but his fantasy value is negligible.
$0 205 Yonny Chirinos SP/RP 3.93 It’s not a FanGraphs Points skillset and it may not pan out anyway.
$0 206 Josh Winder SP 3.26 No reason for him to be on the Ottoneu radar.
$0 207 Jakob Junis SP/RP 4.78 He’s a swing guy who won’t do enough as a RP or a SP to be that useful.
$0 208 Domingo Germán SP 3.65 There is just no way he is one of the five best SP on the Yankees.
$0 209 Vince Velasquez SP/RP 3.45 Just not interested.
$0 210 Mike Clevinger SP 3.40 I debated leaving him off entirely, given the ongoing situation, but I’ll just note – I was mostly out before the news broke and that didn’t help.

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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1 month ago

I love that $6-9 tier and would be happy to build out most of my rotation with guys there. Great work here Chad!