Chad Young’s 2023 Ottoneu SP Rankings
The SP list is always the hardest to make. I am less confident in the projections for pitchers than for hitters, which means there is a lot more judgment required to make decisions. I also tend to be pretty adverse to paying market price for pitching. I tend to believe there will be pitching available via free-agent pickups. Plus, if you fall behind the innings-pitched pace because you aren’t comfortable with what you have, it is relatively easy to make up ground later in the year. So if I am not likely to pay market price for an ace, what should I recommend you do? In the end, I always decide to set tiers based on what I think is a fair price, even if I know that I will be value-shopping at the position.
All of my Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Our regular reminders:
- Tiers > Ranks. The specific order of the rankings is less helpful and less meaningful than the tiers. Sany Alcantara #13 and Shane Bieber #14, but Bieber is closer to Luis Castillo for me than he is to Alcantara. I am always open to discuss my rankings – and I will change them based on convincing feedback – but moving guys around within the tiers just doesn’t matter much. If you want to argue, tell me who is in the wrong tier entirely.
- Format Matters. These are for Ottoneu FanGraphs points format, but can be used fairly effectively for SABR Points (bats are slightly more valuable; for pitchers things vary more) and 4×4 (which values the same skills if not the same way). Also note that, compared to roto leagues (4×4 or 5×5), points leagues have a steeper value curve, so the most expensive players are not quite so expensive in roto. The biggest difference, of course, is that 5×5 values SB highly and this format does not. For 5×5, there are a ton of other rankings out there, including right here on FanGraphs. Make sure to note that redraft rankings are not the same as keeper rankings, and Ottoneu will be more similar to keeper or dynasty. Finally, while it won’t be a full ranking, I’ll be sharing my top tens at each position for 5×5 keeper leagues as part of the Keep or Kut podcast.
- Projected P/G are the Basis but not the Ranking. On the table, you will see a projected P/IP for each player. For this list, those are based on the Depth Charts projections as of 1/17. You’ll note, however, that I didn’t simply put the top projection first and then work down the list. A few things can cause me to break from the projections. Playing time and role, age and track record, future value and possible breakout potential are all factors that could cause me to move someone around. For example, Andrew Heaney has a better projection than a number of players a tier above him, while Tarik Skubal is one spot behind Patrick Sandoval. The former is because I see a lot more risk in Heaney, given his injury history and departure from LA. The latter is because Skubal’s timeline is unclear, which limits his value relative to his overall projection.
- One Position at a Time. Players are ranked for just one position at a time, and will only be ranked at positions where I think they might be/should be used in fantasy. Players ranked here will not appear on the RP list and vice versa.
- N/A Means Not Enough Data. If the P/IP column reads N/A that either means the projection doesn’t exist or the playing time was too small and I decided to ignore it.
- Tiers are Pre-Inflation. In practice, this means these tiers are most applicable to first-year leagues, but you can also adjust for inflation for your league. If you expect 20% inflation in your league, the top tier at OF becomes $54-$66.
Ottoneu FanGraphs Points SP Rankings
| Tier | Rank | Player | Eligibility | DC Projected P/IP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45-$55 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | SP | 6.28 | I know the IP are risky, but if I knock him down to to 110-115 IP, he is still comes out to $43 based on DC projections. |
| $38-$44 | 2 | Corbin Burnes | SP | 5.42 | The other rankers I trust most have him as #1, and that is probably fair. |
| $38-$44 | 3 | Spencer Strider | SP/RP | 5.64 | I started with him much lower – how much can we really trust a guy with such a limited track record? But I couldn’t keep him down. |
| $38-$44 | 4 | Carlos Rodón | SP | 5.59 | People want to push him down due to risk, but he looks healthy to me. |
| $38-$44 | 5 | Shane McClanahan | SP | 5.45 | Yes, his velo trended down, but his projection is already closer to his second half than his full-season line. |
| $33-$37 | 6 | Brandon Woodruff | SP | 5.01 | He doesn’t have the upside of some of the others in the top 10, but I am extremely confident I’ll get value from him. |
| $33-$37 | 7 | Aaron Nola | SP | 4.93 | I think the projections are low due to 2021, and I think his adjustments have put that behind him. |
| $33-$37 | 8 | Gerrit Cole | SP | 5.45 | HR have become a real problem and that might be more park than talent, but it doesn’t change the hit to his value in this format. |
| $33-$37 | 9 | Max Scherzer | SP | 5.25 | He’s had some injuries on and off that have limited his innings and at 38, I worry that will get worse. |
| $33-$37 | 10 | Shohei Ohtani | Util/SP | 5.48 | This is just his SP value, so I am sure it seems low to you. |
| $33-$37 | 11 | Tyler Glasnow | RP | 5.56 | Purely by DC projections, he should be even higher, but I just can’t get comfortable with 160+ IP. |
| $33-$37 | 12 | Justin Verlander | SP | 5.09 | The year is 2034 and fantasy players are fading 51-year-old Verlander because surely THIS is the year age catches up with him, right? |
| $33-$37 | 13 | Sandy Alcantara | SP | 4.74 | The lack of strikeouts relative to his peers in the elite tier will always hold his value down in FGPTs. |
| $28-$32 | 14 | Shane Bieber | SP | 4.83 | Everyone faded him last year. Don’t make that mistake again. |
| $28-$32 | 15 | Zack Wheeler | SP | 4.80 | If he throws 200 innings again, this will look low. |
| $28-$32 | 16 | Luis Castillo | SP | 4.91 | He’s historically kept HR down and now has a park that isn’t actively trying to murder him. |
| $21-$27 | 17 | Framber Valdez | SP | 4.81 | I particularly like him in H2H leagues, because you can rely on good numbers every. Time. Out. |
| $21-$27 | 18 | Kevin Gausman | SP | 4.98 | Prior to ’21, HR were an issue, thanks to a decent number of fly balls. Now Toronto is moving the fences in and not by a small amount. |
| $21-$27 | 19 | Max Fried | SP | 4.54 | Every projection system seems to see regression, based on an increase in HR primarily, and I am willing to bet against that. |
| $21-$27 | 20 | Zac Gallen | SP | 4.64 | More curve and cutter, less change. He also got more horizontal movement on his cutter. No reason he can’t keep that up. |
| $21-$27 | 21 | Blake Snell | SP | 5.04 | Based on how I rank them, I suspect I’ll have a decent number of Glasnow-Snell 1-2s where they are available. |
| $21-$27 | 22 | Luis Severino | SP | 4.78 | Volume is obviously a concern, but I think people are sleeping on how good he has been over the last few years when he pitches. |
| $21-$27 | 23 | Dylan Cease | SP | 4.74 | He went slider/four-seam (43%/40%) in ’22 instead of four-seam/slider (47%/31%) like in ’21 and it seems to have helped increase his GB%, limiting HR, but that high BB% still makes me anxious. |
| $16-$20 | 24 | Clayton Kershaw | SP | 4.74 | Kershaw made big gains in 2022 but that was mostly in HR/FB rate – but even with regression there, he is still knocking on the door of the top 20. |
| $16-$20 | 25 | George Kirby | SP | 4.62 | If you don’t walk anyone and limit HR, you are probably going to be a pretty successful SP. |
| $16-$20 | 26 | Logan Webb | SP | 4.44 | Extreme HR suppression thanks to a combination of a favorable park and an elite GB rate make him very attractive for FGPTs, but it wouldn’t take many extra HR for his value to plummet. |
| $16-$20 | 27 | Alek Manoah | SP | 4.15 | Given his track record, I think we might see more K this year – over 9 K/9 – helping boost his value above his DC projection. |
| $16-$20 | 28 | Joe Musgrove | SP | 4.41 | Don’t be fooled by the sub-3 ERA, but don’t let that skepticism distract from the fact that he was still really good. |
| $16-$20 | 29 | Chris Sale | RP | 5.07 | I think the projections are way low on the P/IP but maybe too high on the innings. |
| $16-$20 | 30 | Robbie Ray | SP | 4.58 | His performance wasn’t that different from the Cy Young campaign and the true results are somewhere in the middle. |
| $10-$15 | 31 | Alex Cobb | SP | 4.80 | His LOB% is low because his performance slips with men on, but in 2022 he wasn’t even bad with men on. That leaves him with an inflated ERA that doesn’t reflect his performance – plus, we don’t even care about ERA! |
| $10-$15 | 32 | Dustin May | SP | 4.91 | Was last year just working back from injury or a real cause for concern? I think the former; I’ll be cautious in case it’s the latter. |
| $10-$15 | 33 | Cristian Javier | SP/RP | 4.51 | He’s sliding down my rankings because while I believe he can keep BABIPs low thanks to the type of batted ball he gives up, I expect the HR/FB rate to climb and that’s going to hurt a lot in this format. |
| $10-$15 | 34 | Jesús Luzardo | SP | 4.35 | He put together a really solid year but still needs to show he can handle a full-season workload. |
| $10-$15 | 35 | Nestor Cortes | SP | 4.27 | He was a tier down for me before, but as much as his success feels unsustainable, he is already showing he can sustain it. |
| $10-$15 | 36 | Hunter Greene | SP | 4.63 | No denying the talent, and his last 8 starts: 1.75 ERA, 2.74 xFIP and nearly 13 K/9. |
| $10-$15 | 37 | Yu Darvish | SP | 4.48 | He’s had pretty aggressive fluctuations in his BB and HR/FB rates and I just can’t trust him as a result. |
| $10-$15 | 38 | Nick Lodolo | SP | 4.79 | LHH have a .183 wOBA against himl RHH have a .344. His value will depend on how far down he can bring that number vs. RHH. |
| $10-$15 | 39 | Julio Urías | SP | 4.08 | Remember that even if you think he can continue to post an ERA that beats his ERA predictors, this format effectively is scored on those predictors and not ERA itself. |
| $10-$15 | 40 | Pablo López | SP | 4.50 | How much should we expect the trade to hurt him? 10.4% HR/FB rate at home for his career vs. 16.3% on the road, but Target isn’t a meaningfully better power park than loanDepot. |
| $10-$15 | 41 | Logan Gilbert | SP | 4.36 | He’s a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, and while there is a lot to like, there is reason to be nervous, as well. |
| $10-$15 | 42 | Triston McKenzie | SP | 4.14 | I look like I am low on him, but compared to the projections, I am actually kinda bullish. The market is just bullisher. |
| $10-$15 | 43 | Freddy Peralta | SP | 4.33 | I keep wondering if he should be a tier up from here, given how good he has been. Is going over $12 really a bad idea? |
| $10-$15 | 44 | Lance Lynn | SP | 4.26 | Even with a couple hiccups, his August/September were excellent and may represent him rounding back into form. |
| $10-$15 | 45 | Kyle Wright | SP | 4.25 | He fell off enough that I am a not excited about him in double figures, even if I think this is the right tier. |
| $6-$9 | 46 | Grayson Rodriguez | SP | 4.38 | Hoepfully he is in Baltimore from the get-go cause I cannot wait to see him pitch in the bigs. |
| $6-$9 | 47 | Lance McCullers Jr. | SP | 4.28 | The walks are just always going to be there, but there are enough K and GB to keep him at the high end of this tier. |
| $6-$9 | 48 | Brady Singer | SP | 4.38 | Courtesy of a great article by Jake Mailhot, Singer lowered his release point on his sinker and added vertical movement, which seems to have driven the breakout. |
| $6-$9 | 49 | Jordan Montgomery | SP | 4.32 | The improvements with STL were all within what he had done previously – no new highs in K or lows in BB – except for HR/9 but that park change explains that. |
| $6-$9 | 50 | Jeffrey Springs | SP/RP | 4.37 | Managed the transition to the rotation seamlessly. |
| $6-$9 | 51 | Drew Rasmussen | SP | 4.24 | The velo dropped, even relative to his 2021 starts, and he was fine – maybe just holding back to go a little deeper? But I’ll be watching that in spring. |
| $6-$9 | 52 | Andrew Heaney | SP | 4.85 | Heaney can take his new slider with him to Texas plus he gets a pretty nice park upgrade for a guy with homer issues. |
| $6-$9 | 53 | Aaron Ashby | SP/RP | 5.09 | The Brewers seem committed to keeping him out of the rotation but I’d urge patience. |
| $6-$9 | 54 | Jon Gray | SP | 4.36 | I thought maybe his HR/FB rate would come down more than from 15.1% to 14.2%, but his career HR/FB rate at Coors is 16.3% and career outside Coors it is 13.2%. So there is maybe a little more regression coming but not much. |
| $6-$9 | 55 | Sonny Gray | SP | 4.28 | The drop in K-rate is a bit concerning and stops me from pushing him up a tier. |
| $6-$9 | 56 | Joe Ryan | SP | 4.15 | I am a bit higher than the projections because I think he can bring down the BB rate, based on his track record. |
| $6-$9 | 57 | Edward Cabrera | SP | 4.17 | He had two blow ups – at Houston and vs. the Dodgers – and otherwise he was brilliant. |
| $6-$9 | 58 | Tony Gonsolin | SP | 3.82 | He isn’t super exciting, but unexciting isn’t bad either. |
| $6-$9 | 59 | Trevor Rogers | SP | 4.64 | Rogers improved as the season went on, and part of that was changes to pitch mix and shape. If he can get that right, we all remember 2021, right? |
| $6-$9 | 60 | Reid Detmers | SP | 4.04 | After his most recent call up, he increased slider usage and velocity, got more whiffs, and the results were excellent. Real upside. |
| $6-$9 | 61 | Chris Bassitt | SP | 4.11 | Had a big jump in GB% in 2022 and needs that to stick given his new park and his new park’s new dimensions. |
| $6-$9 | 62 | Charlie Morton | SP | 4.56 | Velo was down, he threw fewer strikes, and he was more homer-prone. Feels like a recipe for disaster. |
| $6-$9 | 63 | Lucas Giolito | SP | 4.13 | He’s been working on some changes this off-season but without knowing more about what those are, I can’t see spending much on him. |
| $6-$9 | 64 | Patrick Sandoval | SP | 4.38 | Check his xFIPs and you’ll quickly see how much HR/FB fluctuations impacted him the last two years. |
| $6-$9 | 65 | Tarik Skubal | SP | 4.55 | I think he can return this value with <100 IP and then go on to be a great value in the future. |
| $6-$9 | 66 | Kodai Senga | SP | 4.69 | There might not be a pitcher on this list I am less confident valuing. His market value in mock auctions seems to be $7-$10, and that seems fair-ish to me. |
| $6-$9 | 67 | Alex Wood | SP | 4.60 | He’s probably an $8-$10 SP if you could promise me he would be in the rotation but he needs to be healthy. |
| $6-$9 | 68 | Garrett Whitlock | SP/RP | 4.31 | His 8 starts showed he can make that transition without losing much; now he just has to stick. |
| $6-$9 | 69 | Hunter Brown | SP/RP | 4.97 | I say $3-$5, but I suspect in some league I’ll decide $6 is fine. |
| $6-$9 | 70 | Brayan Bello | SP | 4.41 | After a couple relief appearances, he finished with eight really strong starts, including much needed BB% improvement. |
| $3-$5 | 71 | Ken Waldichuk | SP | 4.30 | Made big improvements in BB% in AAA with Oakland and they mostly stuck in MLB. Now he has to get the Ks back. |
| $3-$5 | 72 | Jack Flaherty | SP | 3.96 | The last couple years have been ugly, so this is just a bet that he can get healthy and re-set his career. |
| $3-$5 | 73 | Andrew Painter | SP | 3.62 | I don’t believe they are really going to give him a spot in the rotation to start the year, but I do think that tells us they are serious about him being up this year. |
| $3-$5 | 74 | Ricky Tiedemann | SP | NA | If you promised me 70ish or more innings in MLB this year, he would be up a tier. |
| $3-$5 | 75 | Roansy Contreras | SP | 3.86 | The velocity went down and the ERA went up. The talent is there but if the velocity doesn’t come back – and stay – he won’t reach his potential. |
| $3-$5 | 76 | Zach Eflin | SP/RP | 3.96 | He walks no one and I trust the Rays to set him up to succeed. |
| $3-$5 | 77 | Tanner Houck | RP | 5.03 | He has limited HR effectively but his K-rate will determine whether he has meaningful upside or is just end-of-the-rotation fodder for FanGraphs Points leagues. |
| $3-$5 | 78 | Ross Stripling | SP/RP | 3.87 | He was really good in 2018-19 and then his control failed him. He found it again in 2022 and if he keeps it, this will be a great value. |
| $3-$5 | 79 | Hayden Wesneski | SP/RP | 3.44 | I really like what he brings to the table but be prepared to wait for him to get a seat at that table. |
| $3-$5 | 80 | Shane Baz | SP | NA | I would rather stash him than any of the top prospects, but some of those prospects are going to help sooner. |
| $3-$5 | 81 | Walker Buehler | SP | NA | Like Baz but I prefer Baz. |
| $3-$5 | 82 | Ranger Suárez | SP | 3.98 | He needs to refind some of those K, but if you look at this last two seasons combined, there is something really interesting at play. |
| $3-$5 | 83 | Aaron Civale | SP | 3.91 | His last 8 starts, after returning from injury, he had more than a K per inning, less than 1.5 BB/9, and a 5.44 P/IP. He probably can’t repeat that but he’s basically free and that leaves a lot of room to regress. |
| $3-$5 | 84 | Marcus Stroman | SP | 4.05 | He gets the job done. Not much more, though. |
| $3-$5 | 85 | Eury Pérez | SP | 3.31 | Handling AA at 19 is super exciting. |
| $3-$5 | 86 | Justin Steele | SP | 4.32 | Ditched the sinker to focus four-seam/slider and results were strong – hitters just could not barrel him. I am not convinced is something I want to place a sizable bet on. |
| $3-$5 | 87 | Nathan Eovaldi | SP | 4.18 | Worried his velocity has just fallen too far to continue to be successful. |
| $3-$5 | 88 | Carlos Carrasco | SP | 4.15 | I have no issue going to $3 but realistically, I will lean into someone else at this tier for $4-$5 with more future value. |
| $3-$5 | 89 | Luis Garcia | SP | 4.11 | I don’t think he is a difference-maker, but he can eat some innings and provide some value that way. |
| $3-$5 | 90 | José Berríos | SP | 3.88 | I have always been low on him but he can’t possibly be as bad as he was in ’22 right? Right?! |
| $1-$2 | 91 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | SP | 3.79 | I rode him throughout 2022 in multiple leagues but I just don’t buy it happening again, so I can’t spend much. |
| $1-$2 | 92 | Daniel Espino | Util | NA | The injury risk hurts, but he moves up a lot if he stays healthy. |
| $1-$2 | 93 | Taj Bradley | SP | 3.89 | Espino is more exciting. Bradley is a bit safer and more ready. |
| $1-$2 | 94 | Brandon Pfaadt | SP | 3.84 | I don’t think he’s as exciting as the others in this bunch, but he could be up to start the year. |
| $1-$2 | 95 | Gavin Williams | SP | NA | He’s closer to the two above him than many realize. |
| $1-$2 | 96 | Sean Manaea | SP | 4.17 | The GB are creeping down and the BB are creeping up. He probably rebounds but I don’t think there is enough upside to take the risk. |
| $1-$2 | 97 | DL Hall | SP/RP | 5.38 | The strikeouts and ground balls are really exciting, but if he can’t throw enough innings he may get stuck in the pen. |
| $1-$2 | 98 | Max Meyer | SP/RP | NA | I’m assuming nothing for 2023, so this is all about what he can do next year. |
| $1-$2 | 99 | Kyle Harrison | SP | 4.07 | Good prospect in an org I trust to help him develop, but not as elite as Espino, Tiedemann, Painter or Eury. |
| $1-$2 | 100 | Drey Jameson | SP/RP | 3.88 | The sinker got an absurd GB% and the slider gets a ton of chases, plus his AA numbers suggest some untapped potential in Ks. That’s a nice base to build from. |
| $1-$2 | 101 | David Peterson | SP/RP | 5.25 | It’s a matter of when, not if, he gets into the rotation, and if he is one of my last SP, I am fine waiting on him or using him in the pen short-term. |
| $1-$2 | 102 | Tylor Megill | SP/RP | 5.03 | Same. |
| $1-$2 | 103 | Braxton Garrett | SP | 4.42 | He is anywhere from 6th to 10th in the Marlins rotation. That’s all that stands between him and being more like a $4-$5 guy. |
| $1-$2 | 104 | MacKenzie Gore | SP | 3.77 | He lost velocity and saw a decline in K%, increase in hard contact, and an increase in fly balls and I am just not sure I believe he can maintain the velo he needs or learn to pitch without it. |
| $1-$2 | 105 | Jose Quintana | SP | 4.19 | Weird ride. BABIP and HR/FB ruined a solid 2020, then exploded a bad 2021 when he walked everyone but increased his K. In 2022, he brought down the BB, but lost the K and got huge BABIP and HR/FB help. Combine all three and that looks about right for true performance. |
| $1-$2 | 106 | Tyler Anderson | SP | 3.42 | With that low a K-rate, you are betting big on his HR/FB rate by picking him up. |
| $1-$2 | 107 | Kyle Bradish | SP | 3.99 | Second call up, there was less hard contact, more IFFB, more GB, and basically just less opportunity for damage. |
| $1-$2 | 108 | Jameson Taillon | SP | 3.72 | He had strong enough home numbers that I can’t really buy into a post-Yankee-Stadium boost. |
| $1-$2 | 109 | Frankie Montas | SP | 4.33 | If he were fully healthy, I would go towards double digits for him. Instead, I am not sure I even want him, but I can’t pass him up here. |
| $1-$2 | 110 | Cade Cavalli | SP/RP | 3.72 | Watch his control because if he can find the zone and hit his spots, he could be good. And if he can’t… |
| $1-$2 | 111 | Clarke Schmidt | SP/RP | 4.54 | He can pound the zone with his slider and batters can’t square it up but neither of his FB look that impressive. |
| $1-$2 | 112 | Luis Ortiz | SP/RP | 4.05 | He throws hard and he’s fun to watch, but he needs to show that he knows where the ball is going. |
| $1-$2 | 113 | Tyler Mahle | SP | 3.98 | Call me when he looks healthy in spring training. I don’t love the upside and shoulders are too scary. |
| $1-$2 | 114 | Spencer Turnbull | RP | 4.35 | There’s a lot of risk, but go back and look at what he did in 2022-21, cause he was actually quite good. |
| $1-$2 | 115 | Steven Matz | SP/RP | 4.39 | He’s coming off an MCL injury and it’s unclear if his velocity will be back, so I can’t go too high on him, but I like him at the end of a roster. |
| $1-$2 | 116 | Miles Mikolas | SP | 3.82 | Despite the low K totals, he was actually solid by P/IP last year, but it’s a very risky profile for this format. |
| $1-$2 | 117 | Adam Wainwright | SP | 3.47 | Like his teammate but older and not quite as good in 2022. |
| $1-$2 | 118 | Ryne Nelson | SP/RP | 3.39 | He is 70% fastball and gives up relative hard contact in the air off it. A high IFFB% kept it from being a disaster, but how sustainable is that? |
| $1-$2 | 119 | Gavin Stone | SP | 4.58 | The numbers are more enticing than the scouting reports (not that the scouting reports are bad). |
| $1-$2 | 120 | Bobby Miller | SP | 4.31 | I like Stone better, but I am no scout. |
| $1-$2 | 121 | Mitch Keller | SP | 3.79 | He got himself above replacement level last year and the ability to tweak and improve could mean there is more coming. |
| $1-$2 | 122 | Cody Morris | SP | 5.23 | In 23.2 MLB IP, he walked too many and didn’t strike out enough, but the MiLB K numbers are crazy impressive, so you can understand why people are interested. |
| $1-$2 | 123 | Taijuan Walker | SP | 3.48 | He was really good in 2022 but unless there is another level with the K’s, he still isn’t that valuable in this format. |
| $1-$2 | 124 | Bailey Ober | SP | 3.88 | Did you realize how good he was last year? Just 11 starts but 5.42 P/IP! Regression and a lack of a rotation spot hurt though. |
| $1-$2 | 125 | Martín Pérez | SP | 3.77 | He was really good in 2022 but unless there is another level with the K’s, he still isn’t that valuable in this format. |
| $1-$2 | 126 | Noah Syndergaard | SP | 3.21 | I am paying $1, maybe $2, for the Dodgers magic, not for Syndergaard himself. What do they know that I don’t? |
| $1-$2 | 127 | Michael Kopech | SP | 3.70 | I simply have no idea what to make of him – the talent is there but there is no consistency in his performance and so I am staying away. |
| $1-$2 | 128 | Kyle Muller | SP/RP | 4.35 | His AAA performance represented a big improvement in his walk rates, but it didn’t hold in MLB. If he can solve that, he gets interesting – I’ll be watching that early. |
| $1-$2 | 129 | José Urquidy | SP | 3.43 | So few strikeouts means his margin for error in this format is way too thin. And while he seems to beat his FIP, that doesn’t help you much here. |
| $1-$2 | 130 | Kenta Maeda | RP | 4.09 | He is almost 35, was not good in 2021 and didn’t pitch in 2022. |
| $0 | 131 | Michael Lorenzen | SP | 3.67 | His final few starts, post-injury, he changed his pitch mix and saw some improved results, but he still walked way too many. I could see taking a flyer on him, but no more. |
| $0 | 132 | Corey Kluber | SP | 3.39 | No upside any more but he can still put up solid starts. |
| $0 | 133 | Bryce Elder | SP | 3.91 | He’s ready so he is worth a shot, but I don’t love the K upside so I’ll be quick to move on, too. |
| $0 | 134 | Ian Anderson | SP | 3.73 | He leans on his four-seamer. In 2020 it got called strikes at an above average rate; in 2021 it got whiffs at an above average rate; in 2022 it got neither. Watch the results on that pitch. |
| $0 | 135 | Wilmer Flores | SP | NA | He should be universally watchlisted. |
| $0 | 136 | Michael Wacha | SP | 3.59 | I am not adverse to rostering him, but I want to see where he lands first. |
| $0 | 137 | Simeon Woods Richardson | SP/RP | 3.40 | He is on the outside looking in for the rotation and that got even worse with Pablo Lopez coming to town. Is the upside big enough to outweigh that? |
| $0 | 138 | Nate Pearson | RP | 4.45 | His walk and HR rates have been problematic even in AAA. |
| $0 | 139 | Kyle Gibson | SP | 3.71 | He has been most effective when he can keep HR down and his new park is a big improvement in that regard. |
| $0 | 140 | Anthony DeSclafani | SP | 3.70 | I hate to make everything about velocity, but for him, I think it is about getting his velo back. |
| $0 | 141 | Drew Smyly | SP | 3.80 | Velo and K are trending down, and I think he is teetering on the edge of disaster. |
| $0 | 142 | Chris Paddack | SP | NA | He’s looking to be back late in the season, and if the rehab starts look interesting, I’ll consider buying in. |
| $0 | 143 | Eduardo Rodriguez | SP | 4.14 | Velocity loss and injury concerns are keeping me away. |
| $0 | 144 | Matt Manning | SP | 3.42 | He showed some success in 2022 and is reportedly having a normal off-season, so maybe he can build on what he did last year. |
| $0 | 145 | Johnny Cueto | SP | 3.17 | He tied a career best BB% in 2022 and posted his lowest HR/FB% in more than a decade. That can’t continue at age 36, can it? |
| $0 | 146 | Mike Soroka | SP/RP | 3.79 | For all he has been through, would love to see him return to form, but there is too much risk until we get closer to the season and learn more. |
| $0 | 147 | Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | SP | 4.61 | It’s not just the lost 2022. He was not that valuable when he pitched in 2021 either. |
| $0 | 148 | Matthew Liberatore | SP | 3.71 | If he pitches better in AAA, I’ll look at him again. |
| $0 | 149 | James Paxton | RP | 4.01 | I thought he might be a flyer, but I think there are enough guys I prefer that he’s going to be on my watchlists. |
| $0 | 150 | Kyle Freeland | SP | 2.65 | He’s playable on the road, but not good enough in that number of innings to warrant rostering. If you need a streamer though? |
| $0 | 151 | Keegan Thompson | SP/RP | 4.18 | As surprisingly good as he was in 2022, his P/IP was just 3.93. He needs to be meaningfully better to have much value. |
| $0 | 152 | Jose Suarez | SP | 3.66 | The projections are low on him compared to his 2022 performance but if he can bring his GB rate back up, he could limit the risk. |
| $0 | 153 | Joey Cantillo | SP | 4.10 | Cleveland has helped him really improve his velocty and there could be a breakout. |
| $0 | 154 | Kutter Crawford | SP/RP | 4.05 | He probably gets a shot to start at some point, and when he does, I might stream him, if I need innings. |
| $0 | 155 | Sixto Sánchez | RP | 5.12 | He is aiming to be ready for spring training and that, in and of itself, is impressive. I just wouldn’t want to bet on more than that. |
| $0 | 156 | Josiah Gray | SP | 3.42 | I know the talent is supposed to be special but he looks like he needs a major overhaul to unlock it. |
| $0 | 157 | Adrian Morejon | RP | 4.46 | He was a RP last year but was apparently set to be the 5th starter before Lugo joined the Padres, so he is worth watching as a SP. |
| $0 | 158 | Ryan Pepiot | SP | 3.71 | If the walks come down, I’ll get interested again. |
| $0 | 159 | Bailey Falter | SP | 3.79 | There is a lot of risk and I am not sure the minor league strikeout numbers suggest that much upside for his P/IP. |
| $0 | 160 | Mick Abel | SP | 2.61 | If he shows improved control, he gets interesting. |
| $0 | 161 | Cole Irvin | SP | 3.39 | At least he left Oakland for another friendly park. |
| $0 | 162 | Rich Hill | SP | 3.54 | He’s 43 by opening day and any decline at all from last year puts him well below replacement level. |
| $0 | 163 | Tyler Wells | SP | 3.28 | He’s a watchlist guy, cause there is clearly talent, but he hasn’t shown me enough to want to place a bet today. |
| $0 | 164 | Shintaro Fujinami | #N/A | NA | As a SP, I am just not sure there is enough to get excited about. As a RP? Maybe a flyer. |
| $0 | 165 | Graham Ashcraft | SP | 3.52 | If he can find more K, the GB rate will help him play up, but there isn’t enough to roster him yet. |
| $0 | 166 | Eric Lauer | SP | 3.73 | Too many BB and HR to have much value here. |
| $0 | 167 | Cal Quantrill | SP | 3.32 | As a Guardians fan, I worry about regression. As an Ottoneu manager, he wasn’t even that useful last year. |
| $0 | 168 | John Means | RP | 4.37 | The new dimensions might be enough to make him useful, but given he’ll be out half the season, I am not interested today. |
| $0 | 169 | Dylan Bundy | SP | 2.82 | Big velocity drop from an already iffy base. |
| $0 | 170 | Germán Márquez | SP | 3.42 | Could he have become something special if he got out of Coors? Maybe, but he’s not even useful on the road these days. |
| $0 | 171 | Matthew Boyd | RP | 3.90 | Is he all the way back? Maybe. Is being all the way back to what he was exciting? Not for fantasy. |
| $0 | 172 | Ryan Yarbrough | SP/RP | 2.99 | If he can get back to the lower BB%, he might have a little upside. |
| $0 | 173 | Adrian Sampson 샘슨 | SP | 3.34 | All his gains were in HR/FB rate and that isn’t a great bet to continue give his track record. |
| $0 | 174 | Austin Voth | SP/RP | 3.50 | Usually swing guys look better because of how well they pitch as a RP. Voth was the opposite – he was a better SP than you might have realized. |
| $0 | 175 | Zach Plesac | SP | 3.18 | 2020 isn’t coming back. |
| $0 | 176 | Nick Martinez | SP/RP | 3.83 | I was ready to include him on my RP list but he is apparently the Padres 4th starter. They might need more SP. |
| $0 | 177 | Seth Lugo | RP | 3.90 | Let someone else pick him up, then you can add him when he gets moved back to the bullpen. |
| $0 | 178 | Dane Dunning | SP | 4.32 | Looks like he won’t have a job to start the year and he isn’t nearly good enough to roster as a prospect. |
| $0 | 179 | Louie Varland | SP | 3.91 | He was interesting last year but he looks like he might be really far away from a rotation spot. |
| $0 | 180 | Caleb Kilian | SP/RP | 4.23 | He walked everyone in his brief time in MLB. Like, everyone everyone. |
| $0 | 181 | JP Sears | SP/RP | 4.24 | Some interesting minor league numbers to keep an eye on. |
| $0 | 182 | Paul Blackburn | SP | 3.66 | We all enjoyed the ride in the first half but you knew it would come to an end and boy did it ever. |
| $0 | 183 | Dean Kremer | SP | 3.41 | Too much needs to go right for him to be useful. |
| $0 | 184 | Marco Gonzales | SP | 2.99 | His changeup was his only pitch with above average swinging strike rate, and it was only barely above average. |
| $0 | 185 | Jake Odorizzi | SP | 4.39 | It’s unclear how he’ll be used after they improved the rotation via FA. |
| $0 | 186 | Luis Patiño | SP | 3.70 | I don’t really see any pitches that have performed well consistently against MLB hitting and that makes me think he has a long way to go. |
| $0 | 187 | Daniel Lynch | SP | 3.70 | He hasn’t yet conquered the high minors, let alone the majors. |
| $0 | 188 | Stephen Strasburg | RP | 3.52 | I’d love to see him pitch again; I am unsure that will happen. |
| $0 | 189 | Elieser Hernandez | SP/RP | 4.77 | Not sure what the Mets plan with him, but I guess I’ll be watching to see. |
| $0 | 190 | Yusei Kikuchi | SP/RP | 4.31 | His HR/FB% is consistently high and he shifted his pitch mix away from his sinker in 2022, which led to a more fly balls. And now Toronto is moving in the fences… |
| $0 | 191 | Nick Pivetta | SP | 3.55 | He has solid stretches but has never put up a meaningfully valuable FanGraphs Points season. |
| $0 | 192 | Zack Greinke | SP | 3.25 | I would have guessed he had retired. He has not. |
| $0 | 193 | JT Brubaker | SP | 3.82 | Eating innings is good. Doing it at 3.84 P/IP last year wasn’t helpful though. |
| $0 | 194 | Madison Bumgarner | SP | 2.96 | Just not the guy he once was and he isn’t going to be again. |
| $0 | 195 | James Kaprielian | SP | 3.25 | His fastball just isn’t fooling anyone, posting an abysmal 22.3% CSW. |
| $0 | 196 | Wade Miley | SP | 3.27 | Low K, high BB, but if he can keep the H and HR down, he could be useful again. Just a tough profile to rely on. |
| $0 | 197 | Mitch White | SP/RP | 3.86 | He’s Tiedemann’s placeholder. |
| $0 | 198 | Cole Winn | SP | 3.50 | Not a lot to be excited about, especially when he can’t find the zone at all. |
| $0 | 199 | Dakota Hudson | SP | 3.43 | Pretty uninteresting. |
| $0 | 200 | Patrick Corbin | SP | 3.56 | He got some of his velocity back but not the chases or the whiffs. |
| $0 | 201 | Kyle Hendricks | SP | 3.00 | Nah. |
| $0 | 202 | Adrian Houser | SP | 3.86 | He’s on this list because he is rostered in 17% of leagues and those managers should cut him when they can. |
| $0 | 203 | Brad Keller | SP/RP | 3.77 | No appeal for FanGraphs Points. |
| $0 | 204 | Chris Flexen 플렉센 | SP/RP | 3.71 | He’s played an important role for the Mariners but his fantasy value is negligible. |
| $0 | 205 | Yonny Chirinos | SP/RP | 3.93 | It’s not a FanGraphs Points skillset and it may not pan out anyway. |
| $0 | 206 | Josh Winder | SP | 3.26 | No reason for him to be on the Ottoneu radar. |
| $0 | 207 | Jakob Junis | SP/RP | 4.78 | He’s a swing guy who won’t do enough as a RP or a SP to be that useful. |
| $0 | 208 | Domingo Germán | SP | 3.65 | There is just no way he is one of the five best SP on the Yankees. |
| $0 | 209 | Vince Velasquez | SP/RP | 3.45 | Just not interested. |
| $0 | 210 | Mike Clevinger | SP | 3.40 | I debated leaving him off entirely, given the ongoing situation, but I’ll just note – I was mostly out before the news broke and that didn’t help. |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.
I love that $6-9 tier and would be happy to build out most of my rotation with guys there. Great work here Chad!
Agreed,like that space a lot.