Chad Young’s 2023 Ottoneu RP Rankings

Those two major differences created two challenges for me. First, who do I rank? There will be something like 225-250 relievers on Opening Day MLB rosters and there are probably 500 candidates to fill those spots today. I Only something like 80-100 will be rostered in most Ottoneu leagues and then there are probably another 20-50 who could be considered. So ranking 500 (or even 200) would be unnecessary. And because there is so much volatility in reliever performance, this list will churn HEAVILY during the season. Far more than the other positions.

So to determine who to rank, I used a few criteria. First, I ranked anyone rostered in over 25% of leagues today. Second, I ranked anyone selected in at least one of a series of mock auctions going on right now. Because those mock auctions are still live, it is possible I missed someone. I’ll catch them in my next update. Third, if any relievers had a Depth Charts projection >4.75 P/IP and were rostered in >10% of leagues, I included them, too. I chose that P/IP cut-off because looking at the pitchers I had already ranked from #1 and #2, there was no pitcher projected below that number that seemed interesting or worth rostering.

The second challenge was what tiers to use? Do I show you the tiers most closely related to how the Surplus Calculator or an auction calculator would value these RP (and, therefore, relatively close to market values)? Or do I show you my tiers? In general, I am a believer that these rankings are my rankings and should show my values, but I worry, in this case, that a strategic decision I make to avoid spending on RP would skew the results.

I landed on a middle ground – I am showing you two sets of tiers: The “Tier” column is roughly what I think fair value is for managers who are not me. Think of this as “If Chad were to decide to pay full price for relievers, this is the tier he would put them in.” The “CY Tier” column is my actual tiers. This is more closely aligned with what I would actually pay at auction.

Finally, you will note that there are no notes with each player here. Philosophically, I don’t have a ton to say about most RP. I could have talked about role expectations, where I see possible regression, etc., but there is so much noise out there, the notes would be little more than guesses. As we get closer to draft season, I may come back and add some thoughts. Also, logistically, today is cut deadline day, and I wanted to get these out ASAP. Notes take time.

With that, before we dive into the list, our regular reminders:

1. Tiers > Ranks. The specific order of the rankings is less helpful and less meaningful than the tiers. Félix Bautista is #7 and Ryan Pressly #8, but Pressly is closer to Jhoan Duran for me than he is to Bautista. I am always open to discuss my rankings – and I will change them based on convincing feedback – but moving guys around within the tiers just doesn’t matter much. If you want to argue, tell me who is in the wrong tier entirely.
2. Format Matters. These are for Ottoneu FanGraphs points format, but can be used fairly effectively for SABR Points (bats are slightly more valuable; for pitchers things vary more) and 4×4 (which values the same skills if not the same way).  Also note that, compared to roto leagues (4×4 or 5×5), points leagues have a steeper value curve, so the most expensive players are not quite so expensive in roto. The biggest difference, of course, is that 5×5 values SB highly and this format does not. For 5×5, there are a ton of other rankings out there, including right here on FanGraphs. Make sure to note that redraft rankings are not the same as keeper rankings, and Ottoneu will be more similar to keeper or dynasty. Finally, while it won’t be a full ranking, I’ll be sharing my top tens at each position for 5×5 keeper leagues as part of the Keep or Kut podcast.
3. Projected P/IP are the Basis but not the Ranking. On the table, you will see a projected P/IP for each player. For this list, those are based on the Depth Charts projections as of 1/17. You’ll note, however, that I didn’t simply put the top projection first and then work down the list. A few things can cause me to break from the projections. Playing time and role, age and track record, future value and possible breakout potential are all factors that could cause me to move someone around. For example, Pressly has a better projection than a number of players a tier above him, while Liam Hendriks in the $0 tier.  The former is because I see a lot more risk in Pressly, given his injury issues in 2022. The latter is because Hendriks’ timeline is unclear, which limits his value relative to his overall projection.
4. One Position at a Time. Players are ranked for just one position at a time, and will only be ranked at positions where I think they might be/should be used in fantasy. Players ranked here will not appear on the SP list and vice versa.
5. N/A Means Not Enough Data. If the P/IP column reads N/A that either means the projection doesn’t exist or the playing time was too small and I decided to ignore it.
6. Tiers are Pre-Inflation. In practice, this means these tiers are most applicable to first-year leagues, but you can also adjust for inflation for your league. If you expect 20% inflation in your league, the top tier at OF becomes $24-$30.