Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 SP Rankings – The First 50

Alright, alright – the official start of fantasy baseball has officially officialized, with the NFL kumite finally in our rearview mirror. We’ve now come to our final positional rankings, after first covering catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfielders, and relievers. It’s time for starting pitchers – let’s have some fun.

I’ve always leaned loving pitchers more since I was but a fun-sized Nicklaus. But full-sized Nicklaus loves them even more, as we’ve entered the golden age of optimization, with new technology granting pitchers previously unreachable access to how their stuff behaves and what can be done to improve it. And. I. Love It!

Gone (or at least, going) are the days of assuming automatic decline whether via age or general hittability, with advances in pitch evaluation and design allowing pitchers to make large leaps from season to season. A dip in fastball zip is no longer a death sentence, nor is needing to turn to a pitch mix dominated by secondaries. Holes in your game can be more specifically targeted, whether by the MLB organizations themselves or via businesses like Driveline whose entire focus is optimization.

Big offseason improvements are on the table more than ever, whether they be velocity bumps as a result of a specific throwing program, new (or old but improved) pitches added to unlock one’s overall stuff or just the dumping of bad pitches. While we do hear plenty of news about these off-season goals, there are untold players who’ve been working on the same things, only we won’t see it until we see, ya know? This is why it’s more important than ever for fantasy players to keep their eyes on the news and their ears to the streets while we slowly move toward regular season contests.

With that said, let’s get to it. We’ll start by looking at the top 50 starting pitchers in 2022, as well as by half, using an SGP method to make our values.

And here are the stats that helped them earn the above values, again for the year, as well as by half:

Enough is enough, it’s time for my Top-50 SP, followed by the totally tiers you’re used to normally, with a sortable chart at the end.

Tier: Huh, We’re Doing This With Verlander Again? Sweet

#2 – Justin Verlander, NYM (44 ADP, #9 SP)

Bad news, everyone. I’m afraid we’re going to have to bookend our tiers today with my least favorite writing device – referencing myself. Unfortunately, it cannot be helped because, with both this first tier and the last, my pros and cons are roughly the same as last season.

First up, is the reigning #1 SP in fantasy and new New York Met, Justin Verlander. My argument in 2023 is basically the same as it was this time last year – Verlander’s fantasy profile comes with some categorical skills that make his floor crazy high, even if the baseball gods come-a-knocking to the categories most prone to getting bad-luckified. Let’s hit ’em up:

1. WHIP – We’ll start with Verlander’s fantasy bread-and-butter, Devo-style, and keep it simple. The last time Verlander posted higher than a 0.90 WHIP, was in 2017, putting up a 0.86 WHIP over his 102 starts and 652 IP with the Astros. And while his contact rates haven’t been extraordinary, the quality of said contact has. Since joining the Astros, batters have managed just a .186 AVG and .191 xBA against him. Oh, and he also just stopped walking people after leaving Detroit, posting a 4.6% BB% and 1.6 BB/9 since. Father Time will eventually come for him but I don’t think we’ll see his walk rate just suddenly fall apart.

Please, I’m begging you, as a public service announcement – don’t shortchange the value of a great whip. Or even a WHIP. I don’t always quite know how the internet works but assume the following sentence has one of those hand-clap emojis between every word, so you know how serious I am:

Being able to count on a sub-1.00 WHIP from a starter is a monster advantage for team building.

2. ERA – No pitcher is immune from the regressional havoc that the baseball gods might wreck. But you’ll really have to squint in order to conclude that Verlander’s ERA wheels are just going to fall off, even with the full caveat that the Mets can and could ruin anyone, at any time. Since posting a 4.54 ERA in 2014 (the 2nd-highest of his career), Verlander has a 2.76 ERA over nearly 1200 IP, with a high of a 3.38 ERA. And since his trade to Houston, it’s a 2.26 ERA over 650+ IP, with a 2.89 FIP and 3.13 xFIP.

3. Strikeouts – We’re seeing some cracks in the K-armor that the post-Detroit Verlander has been sporting, with a 28% K% and 11.6% SwStr% that was his lowest since leaving the Motor City. But it’s not like we’re talking about Martín Pérez, here. Verlander is still a very safe bet for more than a strikeout per inning, which is more than enough to not be a drag on his fantasy profile.

4. Wins – Not to go on (another) tangent about projecting Wins but general grousing about how fantasy should do away with them due to their “luckiness” and “unpredictability” remains a pet peeve. Do you know what else is prone to “luck” and “unpredictability”? ERA. And WHIP. And Saves. And batting average. And Runs. And RBI. And, and, and. But I think people tend to focus on Wins because it’s the easiest one to see in the micro when a pitcher gets hosed out of one.

“Bah-hhhh! So-and-So #1 only gave up one run in six innings but didn’t get the Win because So-and-So #2 blew the lead in the 9th! Arr-rrrggg! Wins are ruining fantasy baseball!”

Sure, Win robberies sure are easy to complain about when it happens to your guy but it’s crickets when So-and-So #3 picks up a Win while giving up 4 ER in 5 IP, right? But complaining about the micro losses is easier than judging the totality of a season, over which I believe things tend to even out. You show me a pitcher with a history of success, who goes deep into games and is backed by a good offense and bullpen, and I’ll show you someone who’ll likely rack Wins. Stack the deck in your favor as much as possible and then let the Wins fall where they may. Or, we can just keep shouting at clouds.

Verlander has been one of the better Win sources in fantasy for his entire career and the new-and-improved Houston version got even better. While I will allow that general Mets stank could feasibly cause him to implode, I’ll go ahead and assume he’s going to pull another ~15 dubs in 2023.

Again, this is a (handclap) monster (handclap) advantage (handclap). That’s right, right?

Tier: The Rubberband Man

#10 – Sandy Alcantara, MIA (30 ADP, #3 SP)

Remember those quaint times when we could count on plenty of starters reaching 200 IP, even if they weren’t elite (or even very good) pitchers? Ahh, the good old days. Colby Lewis went 17-9 over 205 IP in 2015 with a 4.66 ERA, Jeff Samardzija crossed 200 IP in both 2015 and 2017 (4.42 ERA), Trevor “I still can’t believe people actually think those last few good seasons were anything but a direct result of his sticky-stuff weaponization of spin” Bauer ran a 4.48 ERA over 213 IP in 2019. But just like him, dem days be gone.

However, while more and more pitchers getting the reins pulled makes it more difficult to assess their usage for fantasy purposes, it has driven things to a more binary place. As in, if you’re not great, you’re probably not reaching 200, or even 190 IP. Of the 21 instances from 2021-2022 where a pitcher went over 190 IP, a 3.71 ERA from Adam Wainwright in 2022 was the highest, followed by a 3.52 ERA (Jose Berrios, 2021), and a 3.50 ERA (Gerrit Cole). So while we can’t just rely on filling out the back of our rosters with bulk innings, at least Marco Gonzales has stopped being tempting.

And then there’s Sandy Alcantara, who may be the reigning NL Cy Young winner but still has a middling strikeout rate and pitches for a team eternally mired in mediocrity, making even double-digit wins seem like an always uphill battle. Add in a 2.28 ERA (2.99 FIP, 3.29 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA) that seems destined for regression and it’s really, really hard to buy into him again at his current “only behind Burnes and Cole” draft cost.

But while the difference between my ranking and his ADP may be large, that’s not to say Alcantara won’t end up on a few of my teams. Team building seems a lot simpler when you know you’re one of the few (and maybe the only) managers who know they’re getting a 200 IP guy. And that’s nice. You know what they say – In the land of openers and early pulls, the man with a rubber arm could be king.

Tier: Stop Me If You’ve Heard This One Before – So, A deGrom Walks Into the Doctor’s Office…

#22 – Jacob deGrom, TEX (30 ADP, #4 SP)

And says he felt some tightness in his side. Jacob deGrom was already off of my board but a balky oblique this earlier will put another unnecessary nail in his draft coffin. Could he again pitch 150+ IP? Sure. And if he does, he’ll probably finish as the #1 SP. But until his draft price starts properly reflecting the inherent risk (or oblique transplants become a thing), deGrom will remain fantasy plutonium.

Tier: <Insert Pun?? – Cease Walking Everyone?… 46 ADP? More like ADCease Doing That?…think of something better tho>

#26 – Dylan Cease, CHW (46 ADP, #11 SP)

There aren’t many questions about the quality of stuff that Dylan Cease brings to the table, particularly when it comes to a biting slider that is one of baseball’s best. For the second year in a row, Cease’s slider finished with a 22% SwStr% but things also got a lot less whiffy in the second half, as it’s usage ticked up:

But being out on Cease is more about the walks than the whiffs, as his rates were once again in the depths, allowing 3.8 BB/9 in 2022 which was identical to 2021. Bad things tend to happen when you’re throwing balls 38% of the time and even though Cease’s ERA stayed sparking all season (1st half: 2.15 ERA, 2nd half: 2.27 ERA), the evaluators were less so. Cease finished with a 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA for the season but ran a 4.27 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA in the second half.

Cease will give you piles of strikeouts, so if ratios aren’t your jam, he could be the SP 1 you’re looking for. But at that price,  his volatility is gonna be a big no for me, dawg.

Tier: Oh, You Didn’t Know? Your Draft Better Call Somebody

#16 – Yu Darvish, SDP (82 ADP, #23 SP)

Maybe it’s because he’s now 36 years old, or maybe it’s because people still see him as a fragile bunny that’s unlikely to pitch a full season. But whatever the reason, Yu Darvish is being taken outside of the top 20 starters, even after turning in a superior fantasy season in 2022 and finishing as the #7 SP. Am I expecting Prime Darvish to again come through and pop a near-top-five fantasy performance? No, but I also don’t need him to at that price.

Darvish is the ace of a big contender, backed by a great offense and bullpen (yay “unpredictable” wins!), and is always a great source of strikeouts, even if they’re starting to tick down. Can the ERA get a little wonky whenever he’s serving up a preponderance of dongs? You bet. But even if he creeps up past a 3.50 ERA, he’s been keeping his WHIP in check for a while now; since a near career-high 1.26 WHIP in 2014, Darvish has a 1.08 WHIP over 942 IP, with sub-1.00 WHIPs in two of the past three seasons.

Given the above, Darvish’s 82 ADP (100 max) makes his high floor feel quite juicy.

Tier: Like You Couldn’t Have Seen This Coming

#27 – Nestor Cortes Jr., NYY (117 ADP, #32 SP)

For those just tuning in, I’ll never stop defending my brother in mustachioed arms, Nestor Cortes*. And while I must admit he’s getting more ADP respect than I anticipated, Cortes still isn’t a starter that drafters are tripping over themselves to roster. It’s more of an “ok, I guess I can draft Nestor” kind of vibe. But I say any of his trepidatious drafters will end up with something similar to what they received in 2022 – a top 25ish starter without a flashy profile but one whose bones set him up for fantasy success.

That success starts with his team circumstances, as the Yankees again look to be one of the top teams in the AL (this time with no collapse!), sporting a strong offense and bullpen. In other words, a wins-friendly environment (what do you mean by, “the bullpen that includes Lou Trivino?”. Let’s just ignore him, mkay?). Cortes might not be a 20-win kind of guy but I’m happy to bet on a double-digit floor.

Like Wins, Cortes’s strikeout ceiling isn’t super high but the floor of around a K per IP, while not impressive, is enough to not be a drag on his fantasy profile. And you can run it on back for ratios, even though his were sparking in 2022, whether looking overall (2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) or by half (1st: 2.63 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2nd: 2.15 ERA, 0.80 WHIP). But as much as I’d like to dream about a repeat, the evaluators (3.13 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA, .232 BABIP) are telling me not to get too carried away.

But the roo-oooles! Won’t the new rules on enforcing balks totally screw with Cortes’s windup, Nicklaus? Um, I guess? Maybe? We won’t know until we know but to say Cortes’s performance will automatically suffer requires the taking up of a few large presuppositions. Not only must you assume that a large part of his success was due to his windup but also that he’ll simply be incapable of adjusting. And those big jumps are just not for me, Clive.

Cortes succeeds with a seam-shifted pitch mix that, when combined with his mixing of arm angles, allows his pitches to play up, particularly in the zone, generating a lot of poor contact and whiffs that don’t necessarily line up with his middling velocity. Until they ban SSW, I’ll keep rolling with Nestor and that nasty cutter-pillar.

* This is not great news. But also, it’s a hamstring, not his arm, and Cortes has already thrown a bullpen. Combined with the Yankees not needing a fifth starter until April 5th, it seems, barring a setback, that he’s on track to start his season with the same IP load as before. Until we start hearing he might miss a chunk of April, color me not too stressed.

Tier: Canceling the Summer of George

#43 – George Kirby, SEA (104 ADP, #28 SP)

George Kirby had a great rookie year according to most measures, finishing as the #59 SP for the season, and as the #39 SP in the second half, posting a 3.39 ERA (2.99 FIP) over 130 IP. That success was built on a base of pumping fastballs in the zone, complemented by three secondaries (curveball, slider, changeup) that all get elite drop on the vertical plane. But unfortunately, the four-seamer that he works with primarily (45%) also drops a lot, getting 8% less rise than average pitches at a similar velocity/extension.

Kirby starts with a lot of characteristics I like in starting pitchers, playing for a contending team that looks to have a good offense and great bullpen again in 2023.  And the aforementioned extreme strike-throwing is certainly a positive, with a 4% BB% that was one of the best in baseball – of the 100 starters with at least 120 IP in 2022, he was the 6th-lowest.

You’d think that sort of walk limitation would lead to fantastic WHIP but a 1.20 WHIP lets us know that Kirby also got hit. A lot. Like, a lot, a lot. Of those same 100 qualified starters, Kirby’s 1.04 hits per IP was 20th. But before you say, “Hey, that’s not great but at least it’s not bottom-five”, let’s look at his peers in that department:

This is not the hi-itttt row that you want to be on. To be fair, Kirby also finished ran a .331 BABIP that was well above average and did drop his hit rate in the second half, even as a .312 BABIP in the first half rose to a .350 BABIP. But when you allow contact as Kirby does, BABIP bad “luck” likes to follow. His 82% Contact% was the 9th-highest among our qualified starters, increasing to 83% in the second half.

Again, this is not a positive peers list:

And in this our first year of defensive adjustments, there may be some sophomore bumpy roads ahead:

Until Kirby increases his whiffs, those contact rates will stay high, leaving Kirby’s ratios prone to the will of those unruly BABIP gods. And right now, this mix won’t do it:

It might seem like I’m burying Kirby but I actually really like his long-term prospects, and even in 2023 I think he’ll be a good source of innings, wins, and (maybe) ERA. My problem is the price, as you’re paying top dollar (or, at least top-100 ADP dollars) for a second-year player who pitches to contact and doesn’t currently have a big whiff-getter. Dangerous game, Johnny.

Tier: 200 K Don’t Just Grow on Post-100 ADPs

Charlie Morton, ATL (166 ADP, #48 SP)

There were only 11 pitchers in 2022 who collected 200 K or more – want to guess how many are going outside of the top 100 in 2023? Well, it would be only one if not for Robbie Ray carrying an annoying 103 ADP but after him, it’s only Uncle Charlie Morton (205 K in 2022, 166 ADP in 2023) and as more and more players settle into the 150-175 strikeout zone, Morton’s big-K ways can be quite the boon at his point in drafts.

Morton’s ratios were clearly awful in 2022 (4.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) and he failed to reach double-digit wins in a full season for the first time since 2015. But a 3.60 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA speak much higher of his 2022 hiccups, as do the massive improvements shown over the summer; Morton had a 5.47 ERA through April/May but posted a 3.36 ERA from June through August.

Now, to be fair, he hit the skids again in September, allowing a total of 19 ER in six starts. But some context is also needed; in two of those starts (vs WSN, vs MIA), Morton was excellent, allowing 2 ER over 11 IP, picking up two wins and 16 K. In the other four (@ SEA, @ SFG, @ PHI, vs NYM), he got blasted, allowing 17 ER in 20.2 IP but three of the four were on the road, and all were against teams that were, at the time, were some of baseball’s hottest teams.

At 39 years old, the ratio risk will again be real and Morton may again see some ups and downs. But the strikeouts will likely come as they always do and that bulk of strikeouts will be virtually impossible to come near around his current ADP. If you’ve been minding your SP ratio store but have taken your eye off your strikeouts, Morton is a fantastic value at market price.

Tier: I Probably Spend Too Much Time Worrying That Paul Thinks I’m Just Trying to Antagonize Him

#50 – Blake Snell, SDP (117 ADP, #31 SP)

Well, that and not dedicating enough time to writing snappier tier titles. But about Blake Snell. I warned you already but it’s time to once again go back in time. The time? Spring 2022. The place, my SP rankings. The who? A seminal British rock band that gave us such hits as “Love Reign O’er Me”, “Pinball Wizard”, plus all of those CSI theme songs.

But also, Blake Snell, who I ranked the #49 SP in 2022, via the tl;dr bullet points:

• Blake Snell is an excellent pitcher IRL. But IF(antasy)L? Not so much. Past Nicklaus: “Or, at least, his path to overall value seems narrow when looking at his likely contributions in the four starting pitcher categories, with IP ostensibly serving as the fifth”
• The strikeout rate you can count on. But the rest? Eh-hhhhh…
• Innings and Wins? Not so much. Past Nicklaus: “Outside of 180.2 IP in his 2018 Cy Young campaign, Snell has a max of 129.1 IP (in 2017) and had 128.2 IP in 2021. This isn’t just an injury thing, it’s also his too-oft habit of going less than five innings, limiting his chance for wins. Since his 21 wins in 2018, Snell has a total of 17 wins in 61 starts, maxing out at 7 wins last season. Current Nicklaus: In 2022, Snell finished with 128 IP and 8 Wins.
• A great ERA? Maybe! A great WHIP? Only if he’s a premium member at his local BDSM-Mart. Past Nicklaus: Snell will also likely again be a liability in WHIP and the 1.20 WHIP he ran in 2020 (and still didn’t return positive value) seems around the best-case scenario. His other ratio should be much more valuable but sub-3.50 ERA still seems less likely than 3.50 – 3.75 ERA. Good, just not great. Current Nicklaus: In 2022, Snell posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Past Nicklaus said Snell was “Good with one ratio, bad with the other. Good with strikeouts, bad with wins. Great pitcher, narrow path to overall fantasy value.”

Current Nicklaus can’t disagree; Snell has a narrow path to overall fantasy value in 2023, just as he had in 2022, ultimately finishing as the #51 SP.

And with that, I name this Council of Nicks dismissed.