Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• Simply based on the way the schedules lined up, it looks like there are a ton of teams who have a pair of easy opponents next week: the A’s, Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates and Rockies all look like they’ve got easily exploitable matchups. The problem is that those teams don’t have completely trustworthy starting rotations to begin with, which means there are still some risky plays despite the opponents.
• I’d be comfortable starting anyone from the Marlins rotation in their series against the Rockies and A’s and they’ll also need callup fill-ins for two spot starts next week. It probably won’t be Braxton Garrett as he’s still working back from his shoulder injury, but keep an eye on his progress as Miami might activate him off the IL early to make one of those starts next week.
• This is one of the few opportunities to go ahead and start any Rockies starters you might be rostering since they’re on the road playing two weak offenses (but let’s be honest, that’s probably not likely). I actually think Ryan Feltner is a sneaky streaming play since he has a two-start week and has been pretty decent this year.
• On the flip side, the Giants and Mariners have two pretty tough matchups on the docket next week. San Francisco travels to Boston and Philadelphia and Logan Webb seems like the only matchup-proof starter in their rotation (and he has a double-start week too). The Mariners have the harder task of hosting the Braves and then traveling to Houston. Their cadre of aces have been absolutely dominant recently, but it’s a tall ask to face two of the best offenses in baseball.

The number of pitching injuries haven’t let up yet and it feels like everyone is looking for starting pitching to help out their rosters. Here’s a trio of pitchers who are rostered in under 10% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or two.

Because he’s spent his career pitching in Oakland, Paul Blackburn’s success has gone quietly unnoticed. He’s also dealt with a myriad of injuries and has surpassed 20 starts in a season just twice in his eight-year career. Still, over the past three seasons, he’s compiled a 3.95 FIP with a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio and some excellent contact management. This year, it took him four starts to finally allow his first run of the season. He’s dramatically reduced the usage of his sinker and is now throwing all six of the pitches in his repertoire between 20% and 10% of the time. His cutter is now technically his primary pitch and the effectiveness of that pitch has increased this year thanks to slightly higher velocity and horizontal movement.

In Mitchell Parker’s debut, he held the Dodgers to just two runs in five innings. In his second start in the big leagues, he held the Astros scoreless over seven innings. Those are two of the best lineups in baseball and Parker carved through them. He only throws his fastball in the low-90s, but his over-the-top delivery creates natural carry with the pitch. And when he pairs it with his 12-to-6 curveball, it becomes a deadly pitch pair. He’s also added a splitter to his repertoire recently and his scouting report says he also throws a slider. He’s survived his first two starts with some pretty good batted ball luck and his profile that of an up-and-down back-end starter. With the new splitter and improved command, it’s possible he’s raised his ceiling a bit, but I’d be wary of paying too much to roster him at this point.

Albert Suárez’s story is a fun one. He pitched for the Giants in limited action way back in 2016 and 2017, bounced around in Japan and Korea for five years and finally signed a minor league contract with the Orioles this offseason. He had a great spring training and finally got the call up to make a spot start last Wednesday. He held the Twins scoreless over 5.2 innings in his first big league action in seven years and then held the Angels scoreless over another 5.2 innings in his second start yesterday. His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far. With the Orioles dealing with plenty of injuries in their starting rotation, it’s likely that Suárez will get a long run of starts to prove he can stick in the majors for good.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves and Rays look like they have pretty easy schedules next week. Tampa hosts the Tigers before traveling to face the hapless White Sox next weekend while Atlanta hosts the Marlins and Guardians. The Giants also have six games at home next week which should be a boon to their starting rotation.
• On the other hand, the Reds and Guardians have tough slates next week. Cincinnati hosts the Phillies before heading out to face the Rangers on the road while Cleveland hosts the Red Sox and then travel to Atlanta over the weekend.
• The Astros have a weird week with two off days and just five games including two in Colorado next weekend.
• The Phillies might activate Taijuan Walker from the IL next week. Keep an eye on their rotation to see how they handle his activation while allowing Spencer Turnbull to continue his hot start to the season.
• The Red Sox will need to make a roster move to find a fill in for the injured Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Right now, Naoyuki Uwasawa is listed on the Probables Grid. In addition, Boston used Cooper Criswell as a bulk reliever behind an opener yesterday. If they continue that pattern next week, make sure he’s in the right SP or RP slot in your lineup depending on how the Sox deploy him.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• It looks like the Phillies have a pretty easy schedule this week; they’ll host the Rockies and White Sox. Citizens Bank Park is fairly hitter friendly, but both Colorado (outside of Coors) and Chicago have been punchless to start the season. Aaron Nola is the lucky recipient of a two-start week against these weak opponents.
• I’m also recommending you start everyone in the Giants rotation; they’ll start the week in Miami and then return home to face the Diamondbacks next weekend. Arizona could pose some problems, but the cavernous ballpark in San Francisco should prevent things from getting too out of hand.
• After their easy week this week, the Braves face both Texas teams next week. That will present some tough matchups, and after Max Fried’s blow up last weekend, it’s hard to trust anyone from Atlanta’s rotation next week.
• It’s possible we’ll see the season debuts of Walker Buehler, Jordan Montgomery, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, and Jameson Taillon next week. If you roster any of those guys, you’re probably already monitoring their rehab starts. Buehler and Montgomery both have pretty easy matchups if they stick to their schedule — those would be the only two I’d recommend starting so quickly off the Injured List.

This column went through a journey last year. It started as a bi-weekly effort to try and find streaming targets for Ottoneu leagues. Due to the large roster sizes and difficulties lining up auctions with the right start dates, streaming wasn’t really a viable strategy for Ottoneu. After a few months, I pivoted to trying to find under-rostered pitchers who were performing well enough to get a second look. I’ll be following that model for this season except this piece will run once a month and it will cover both starters and relievers together.

With so few games played so far, it’s hard to get a gauge on who has actually made tangible improvements and who has simply started off hot. With so many injuries plaguing some of the best pitchers in baseball, at this point, you might just be looking for a warm body to fill some innings. Hopefully the pitchers highlighted below can be more than just filler. Let’s dive in.

The entire Royals starting rotation has been extremely impressive to start the season but lost amid the hype surrounding Cole Ragans and the post-hype surrounding Brady Singer were two solid starts from Alec Marsh. Marsh made his major league debut last year, bouncing between the bullpen and the starting rotation throughout the year. He was undone by a 11.4% walk rate and an 18.4% home run rate, both of which drove his ERA and FIP up close to six. Command was always an issue for him during his minor league career so to take a step forward in the big leagues, he’d have to figure out that problem. Through his first two starts of the season, he’s only walked two batters, his Zone% has increased by more than 10 points up to 57.8%, and his Location+ has improved from 94 to 101. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit as he’s filled the zone which bears monitoring, but if he’s managed to address his biggest weakness, he could be in store for a big breakout season.

Back in 2021, it looked like Spencer Turnbull was in the midst of a breakout until a UCL injury derailed his forward momentum and caused him to miss the entire following season. He returned last year and made seven forgettable starts for the Tigers. He managed to win a spot in the Phillies rotation out of spring training and has turned in two brilliant starts already. He’s allowed a single unearned run in 11 innings while striking out 13 and walking just a single batter. The biggest difference for him is a new sweeper that has become one of his primary pitches. His four-seamer also looks a bit different — I’m pretty sure it’s a classification error and the pitch is now more of a hard cutter — but it’s been an effective piece to play off the horizontal movement of his breaking ball.

Cody Bradford is one of the pitchers tasked with filling in until the Rangers get Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle back after the All-Star break. So far, he’s turned in two excellent starts, allowing just three runs in 12.2 innings. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff with a fastball that sits in the low 90s. He makes up for the lack of raw velocity with elite extension and tons of carry on his heater. He’s also added a slow, looping curveball to his arsenal this year, giving him a consistent breaking ball that he didn’t possess last year. With Michael Lorenzen’s ramp up time coming to a close soon, it’s possible Bradford will be bumped from the rotation within the next couple of weeks. That could pose a risk if you’re looking for a long-term solution for your pitching staff, but he looks good enough to add as long as he has a job in the near future.

With starters, you’re looking for longevity and real changes in talent. With relievers, sometimes riding the hot hand is enough.

Fernando Cruz is currently listed fourth on the Reds bullpen pecking order behind Alexis Díaz, Emilio Pagán, and Lucas Sims. Still, he’s earned three holds on the season and has struck out nearly half the batters he’s faced so far. His calling card is an unhittable splitter; that pitch is running a ridiculous 70% whiff rate and has been put in play just once thus far. Even though batters can’t hit his splitter, he has trouble locating it consistently and doesn’t have great command of his other pitches either. That’s led to a pretty high walk rate which could be his downfall. I’m betting he’ll be the number one setup guy behind Díaz in a month or two.

Justin Slaten is a rule-5 pick who is making a name for himself in the Red Sox bullpen. He’s already earned a save and a hold and has the highest average leverage index among the relievers listed above. He struggled with command while a prospect in the Rangers organization, though that hasn’t been a problem for him so far in his brief big league career; he’s struck out six and walked no one so far. Like so many relievers these days, he has a good, hard fastball and a sweeping slider that earns plenty of whiffs. If he’s actually figured out his command issues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him creep up the pecking order in Boston’s bullpen.

Here’s my deep cut for this article. Hunter Gaddis was an up-and-down spot starter for the Guardians last year, struggling through seven starts and four relief appearances. He struck out just 13.2% of the batters he faced and relied heavily on producing weak contact for his limited success. Fast forward a year and he’s reinvented himself as a hard-throwing reliever. His fastball velocity is up nearly three ticks this year and he’s throwing his slider more than ever. The results speak for themselves: seven strikeouts and one walk in 5.1 innings with three holds. The Guardians are missing a handful of their established high-leverage relievers and Gaddis certainly looks like he’s stepped up to fill the gap.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• It’s a great week to roster any of the Braves starters; they host the punchless Mets and then travel to Miami. Charlie Morton and Reynaldo López are the lucky starters to pull a double shift next week.
• If I had any confidence in their starters, this would also be a great week for the Nationals; they’re on a West Coast swing through the Bay Area next week and play six games in those cavernous stadiums. As it is, I can only recommend MacKenzie Gore wholeheartedly with the rest falling somewhere between “maybe” and “risky.” That’s a shame.
• The Astros and Rangers have a wrap around four-game series that ends on Monday before meeting up again over the weekend. That means Framber Valdez lines up to face the Rangers twice in one week. After a rough first start to the season he looked much better against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Still, I don’t really have much interest in seeing if he can tempt fate twice against the Rangers high-powered offense.
• It’s a rough week to roster any of the Marlins starters; they travel to New York to face the Yankees and then host the Braves.
• There are a handful of starters who are slated to come off the injured list next week including Blake Snell, Nick Lodolo, and possibly Michael Lorenzen. Normally I wouldn’t recommend starting a pitcher coming off a stint on the IL but Snell and Lorenzen have pretty juicy matchups against the Nationals and A’s, respectively.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The first week in the Ottoneu season runs from March 20 through April 7 (including the two games in Korea). If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, you’ll have four extra days of games to juggle with a cap that isn’t proportionally bigger. And if you started any of the four starters from those games in Korea, you’re already down a start. Make sure you’re really keeping track of the best matchups and plan out your starters accordingly.
• Most teams have either one or two off days over these first 11 days of the season. The Twins and Brewers have three off days which should give their starters an extra bit of rest.
• I think JP Sears has a particularly nice pair of matchups to start the season. He’s had a great spring training and he’s lined up to face the Guardians at home and then the Tigers in Detroit. He’s an under-the-radar starter who could get off to a quick start this season.
• The Astros have a particularly tough schedule to start the season with series against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rangers lined up. You could start Framber Valdez since he feels pretty matchup proof, but I’d fade Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

We’re wrapping up our Ottoneu keep or cut series with a look at starting pitching. Lucas Kelly and Chad Young already shared their difficult choices; now I’ll join them with four more pitchers who are on the bubble for me.

Justin Verlander
Salary: $21
Average Salary: $15.2
2023 P/G: 4.46
Projected 2024 P/G: 3.96

The days of elite production from Justin Verlander appear to be behind us. A year after winning the Cy Young upon his return from Tommy John surgery, father time finally caught up with the flamethrowing right-hander. The velocity on each of his pitches fell by nearly a tick leading to some serious ramifications across his entire profile.

His strikeout rate fell to 21.5%, the lowest it’s been since 2015, and his FIP rose to 3.85, the highest it’s been since 2008. While the loss of velocity significantly impacted his fastball, his secondary offerings appeared to be as effective as ever. The whiff rate on his slider was still intact and batters had an incredibly difficult time putting his breaking balls in play with any authority. That’s a big reason why his home run rate sat below league average and well below the relatively high norms he had established since his career renaissance with the Astros.

Despite the inevitability of time, Verlander isn’t totally cooked yet. He made 27 starts last year even after missing a month to start the season with a minor shoulder injury. His health isn’t a guarantee, but he’s now proven he can be a productive accumulator in Ottoneu. The ceiling isn’t what it once was, but finding a reliable starter who has the potential to turn in a gem or two every once in a while is pretty valuable.

Keep or cut?
Low-ceiling point accumulators are particularly important in head-to-head leagues where you need to make the most of every single start you have every week. That’s the context where Verlander is probably the most valuable these days. You should be relying on him to anchor your rotation and you certainly shouldn’t be paying him for his name value or history. I’m cutting at $21 but it’s more of a cut to recycle because I’ll be targeting him in the draft and hoping to pick him up for around $10.

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Joe Musgrove
Salary: $21
Average Salary: $18.7
2023 P/G: 4.80
Projected 2024 P/G: 4.36

Injuries sunk Joe Musgrove’s 2023 season; he fractured his big toe just prior to spring training and then a shoulder issue cut his season short by two months. When he was on the mound, he looked like essentially the same pitcher that had dazzled over the last two seasons. His ERA and FIP were right in line with the norms he’s established since joining San Diego in 2021. He was even in the midst of a particularly dominant stretch of starts before his shoulder injury at the end of July; he had made 12 straight starts allowing three or fewer runs with just a 1.84 ERA and 2.78 FIP.

Under the hood, things looked like they were in good shape, too. His arsenal was as effective as ever and he even made a slight repertoire change that could portend good things in 2024.

Musgrove had relied heavily on his excellent slider since joining the Padres pitching staff — that breaking ball was his primary weapon for the first two years on the team — but that changed last season. He deemphasized that pitch in favor of his curveball and changeup. His other breaking ball is just a slightly slower and deeper version of his slider and it’s just as effective so the overall effect on his repertoire was pretty negligible.

The biggest difference was the increase in changeup usage. That pitch has always been an afterthought in his pitch mix, especially after moving to San Diego, but it’s been an effective pitch when he has used it. Last year, he increased the whiff rate on the pitch to 40.6% and opposing batters collected just three extra-base hits off it. It gives him a solid weapon to use against left-handed batters and yet another pitch with an above average whiff rate in his arsenal.

Keep or cut?
Steamer is projecting a pretty significant step back from Musgrove in 2024 and I definitely don’t see why. The projection calls for a huge jump in home run rate despite his recent history of running below average rates. His injuries last year are certainly a concern but I don’t see anything in his peripherals or pitch arsenal that raise any red flags. I’m keeping him at $21 and hope to see him cut in a bunch of leagues so I can target him in the draft.

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Sonny Gray
Salary: $15, $17
Average Salary: $14.4
2023 P/G: 5.66
Projected 2024 P/G: 4.37

Fun fact: Sonny Gray’s 0.39 HR/9 in 2023 was the fifth lowest single-season HR/9 from a qualified starting pitcher in the last decade. Unsurprisingly, Steamer does not believe he’ll be able to pull that feat off again in 2024. Still, he’s shown that contact management is a skill of his — or at least as much as contact management can be a skill for a pitcher. Over the last five years, his HR/9 has risen above 1.0 just once — in 2021 when it was 1.26 — otherwise it’s been an astonishingly low 0.67.

Even if you think there will be some home run rate regression in Gray’s future, there are plenty of other reasons to be bullish about his future. His ability to spin a pitch has always been a strength, particularly since his fastball velocity started dropping as he’s aged. Last year, he added a cutter and a changeup to his arsenal, doubled the usage of his sweeper, cut out his traditional gyro slider, and dialed back the usage of his curve and sinker.

His strikeout and walk rates essentially stayed static from what he accomplished in 2022 so you could argue about the efficacy of all those pitch mix changes. From a stuff perspective, he’s emphasizing his most effective pitches in his pitch mix while giving himself a wide repertoire with multiple movement profiles to keep batters off balance. As Esteban Rivera put it last summer:

Gray has has done almost everything possible to assure he maintains deception. His release points are consistent. He has multiple layers of movement both vertically and horizontally. He can vary velocity and movement within a given pitch. If you were to build a pitcher who doesn’t have great velocity but can spin the heck out of the ball, this is a darn good blueprint.

Keep or cut?
I’d be happy to keep Gray up to $18 or even $20 depending on your league and roster context. I like his landing spot in St. Louis and the changes he made to his pitch mix seem promising.

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Zack Littell
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $3.9
2023 P/G: 4.05
Projected 2024 P/G: 3.34

Zack Littell seems like one of those starters who is always available on the waiver wire during the season, never good enough to hold a roster spot but a nice plug-and-play option if you need it. He made the switch from relieving to starting in the middle of the season and actually fared better in longer outings than he did out of the bullpen. From July 30 through September 23, he made 11 starts and posted a 3.38 ERA and a 4.04 FIP — and for our purposes, a 4.28 points per inning pitched. That’s … not bad.

The biggest differentiator for him was adding a sinker and sweeper to his pitch mix. That gave him five weapons to call on and an excellent breaking ball to use against right-handed batters. His gyro slider had been effective in the past, but with the addition of the horizontally moving sweeper, he changed that pitch into more of a hard cutter. With an overhauled repertoire, he took to the transition quickly and was a key member of the Rays rotation down the stretch.

It would be easy to write off someone like Littell with his history and lack of consistent success in the majors, but he was a completely different pitcher as a starter. And with so many injuries in the Rays rotation, Littell will have a guaranteed spot in the rotation to start this year. Tampa Bay has given no indication that they think his success last year was a flash in the pan and their development group has a track record of taking pitchers like Littell and turning them into effective contributors.

Keep or cut?
I think I’ve convinced myself to keep Littell in both leagues where I’m rostering him for $4. I don’t think there’s much ceiling that would push his value over that salary, and I think a lot of fantasy players would be happy to churn Littell. I’m happy to keep the player I know rather than try and find a like-for-like replacement in the draft, even if the potential reward isn’t as high.

Before the holidays, Lucas Kelly ran through his keep or cut decisions in the outfield, part of our ongoing series heading into the keeper deadline on January 31. To catch up with him, Chad Young and I are finally getting around to our entries in the series before we move onto pitchers next week. I’ll run through three players on my bubble and where I think the keep line could be for each of them. All P/G projections are from the 2024 Steamer projections.

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Cedric Mullins OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $17.1
2023 P/G: 4.37
Projected 2024 P/G: 4.80

We’re now two years removed from Cedric Mullins’ huge breakout in 2021 and it really seems like that was his high water mark. In the two years since posting a 136 wRC+, that metric has fallen year-over-year to just a point below league average last year. He did struggle through a recurring groin injury that cut into his playing time and definitely affected his ability to use his speed to his advantage. Now we’re left with plenty of questions about how valuable he’ll be moving forward.

There are a few encouraging signs under the hood though each of them is tempered by a red flag. After seeing his ISO drop from .228 during his breakout season to .145 in 2022, he was able to punish the ball more often last year, pushing his ISO back up to .183. That improvement was backed by an improved barrel rate and a batted ball profile that leaned even more heavily into pulled contact in the air. Elevating his batted balls was one of the keys to his success back in ‘21, though he might have gone a little too far last year. His groundball rate was the lowest of his career and nearly half of his batted balls were categorized as fly balls, but the expected wOBA on that elevated contact was nowhere near where it was two years ago.

His sweet spot rate — the rate at which he makes contact at ideal launch angles — was at a three-year low last year. Despite elevating his batted balls on the regular, he was hitting far too many at uncompetitive launch angles or without much power behind them, leading to a ton of weak fly balls.

On the plate discipline side of things, Mullins cut his chase rate to the lowest it’s been since a brief cup of coffee back in 2018 in his first exposure to big league pitching. That helped him post a career-high 9.5% walk rate. Unfortunately, his contact rate also fell three points and the corresponding increase in whiffs drove his strikeout rate up to 22.2%.

The other complicating factor is that the Orioles started to platoon Mullins pretty heavily last year even though his platoon split was pretty even. It’s hard to take that split seriously since he only accumulated 119 plate appearances against left-handed pitching last year but it’s something to monitor, especially with a crowded outfield in Baltimore.

Keep or Cut?
As much as I’d like to dream about Mullins reaching his 2021 heights again, I don’t think he’ll be worth $15 this year. Steamer has him bouncing back in 2024 with a .317 wOBA which would be higher than what he posted each of the last two years. Still, that’s more like a $8-$10 outfielder, not the $20 outfielder he was in 2021. I’m gonna cut and see where he goes in the draft because I think a lot of people will be overlooking him due to his struggles.

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Seiya Suzuki OF
Salary: $18 and $24
Average Salary: $21.8
2023 P/G: 5.76
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.53

In his second season stateside, Seiya Suzuki improved across nearly every significant offensive category. But simply looking at his full season stats hides some of the ups-and-downs he experienced during the season and I think some of that narrative is affecting how he’s valued heading into this upcoming season. Here’s his rolling 20-game wOBA from last year:

He had an early slump, dealt with a few minor injuries, and really slumped in June and July and was finally benched for a short time in early August. But from August 9th onwards — the day he returned to the lineup full-time — he was the second best hitter in baseball, a hot streak that salvaged his full season stat line. So which version of Suzuki is the real one?

As Ben Clemens laid out in the article linked above, the adjustments Suzuki made in August were specific to his approach and directly addressed the reasons why he was struggling in the first place. He was specifically hunting breaking balls located in the zone while continuing to wallop the fastballs he saw up the middle and to the opposite field. It was a change to his approach that got him out of the middle ground between trying to adjust to hard and soft stuff. As Clemens put it, “This isn’t some fluke of soft line drives falling in all over the place or grounders finding holes in the infield. He’s just pummeling the ball, and doing it in a way that suits his game.”

It’s possible some of the hesitation around drafting Suzuki is related to his bearish Steamer projection. It sees him taking a slight step back in 2024, with a .345 wOBA that sits right in between what he’s accomplished over the last two years. But remember, his .358 wOBA from last year included those two significant slumps during the first half of the season. With another season of exposure to major league pitching under his belt and the assurance that he was able to make significant adjustments to his approach on the fly, I’m thinking he’s got a good shot at beating that projection this year.

Keep or Cut?
I’m extremely happy to keep at $18 and I’m trying to find room in my budget to keep him at $24. I’d think I’d be comfortable keeping him at up to $26 or even $28 depending on the league context and cap situation.

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Masataka Yoshida OF
Salary: $20
Average Salary: $23.4
2023 P/G: 5.16
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.63

When Masataka Yoshida made the leap from NPB to the majors, the biggest question was whether or not his low-strikeout, high-walk approach would translate against big league pitching. It’s a little complicated but I’d say his rookie year was a modest success; he posted a 109 wRC+ though his overall value was seriously hurt by his lead glove in left field. His defense isn’t a concern for fantasy baseball, but even his offensive production had some curious red flags.

Through the end of June, he was posting a 129 wRC+ with a good 8.7% walk rate and a great 11.3% strikeout rate. More importantly, he was hitting for power and generally looked like he had made the transition without much fuss. From July 1 through the end of the season, he took just seven walks total, his strikeout rate spiked to 17.0%, and his power output dried up a bit. The contours of his season look pretty ugly once you pull up his 20-game rolling averages.

Even though his plate discipline fell apart in July, he was still producing at the plate. Once the calendar flipped to August, that production dried up and he slumped all the way through the end of the season. Looking under the hood, it really seems like he started pressing as soon as he started to struggle. His patient approach went right out the window and he started aggressively swinging at everything.

His overall swing and chase rates spiked during the second half as he tried to swing his way out of his troubles. That led to a collapse of his walk rate and a corresponding spike in strikeout rate. The good thing is that his contact rate stayed relatively unchanged. He wasn’t generating as much power with his swing during his slump, but he was still putting the ball in play regularly.

Keep or Cut?
Were his second half struggles indicative of what to expect moving forward or was it just a particularly bad slump compounded by an aggressive turn to try and break out of it? Steamer seems to think it was just a blip and is projecting a pretty significant improvement in 2024. I’m leaning towards believing in the projection but there’s still some risk involved here. $20 feels right without leaning too heavily into that risk. I’m not excited to keep him at that salary but I don’t think I’d be able to get him any cheaper in the draft.

A few weeks ago, the Ottoneu+RotoGraphs team — Chad Young, Lucas Kelly, and myself — ran through some tough keep or cut decisions at middle infield for our Ottoneu teams. This week, we’ve moved on to corner infielders. I’ll run through three players on my bubble and where I think the keep line could be for each of them. All P/G projections are from the 2024 Steamer projections.

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Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Salary: $9
Average Salary: $11.3
2023 P/G: 4.99
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.09

Ryan Mountcastle had a really weird year in 2023. He started off producing one of the most unlucky batting lines in the league; through May 13, his wOBA-xwOBA was -.067, the fifth lowest in the majors among qualified batters. On that date, he was placed on the IL with a wrist injury and had another stint on the shelf with a bout of vertigo a month later. Upon his return, his results finally caught up with his expected stats and he wound up posting an overall line right in line with his .335 wOBA from his first full season in the majors in 2021.

Under the hood, his plate discipline improved ever so slightly; his strikeout rate dropped by 2.5 points and his walk rate was up slightly to 7.9%. With a selectively aggressive approach that produces plenty of hard contact, he won’t have the solid floor of a player with better on-base skills, but his approach moved in the right direction last year. And despite the weird batted ball luck that plagued him early in the season, his contact peripherals all fell within his established career norms.

So what’s the problem? It’s his home park. Mountcastle struggled last year when the Orioles expanded the depth of the wall in left field to its current cavernous dimensions. During his first full season and the last season Camden Yards had its old dimensions in 2021, Mountcastle pulled a little under 40% of his batted balls. That pull rate has dropped significantly the past two seasons and it’s a big reason why his actual results lag behind his expected stats.

In 2023, Mountcastle’s wOBA on pulled batted balls dropped dramatically despite producing similar contact quality. Some of that is related to his elevated groundball rate — that metric jumped up five points over where it was in 2021 and 2022 — but those deep dimensions in left field certainly affected his results. Rather than trying to pull the ball in the air like he did so successfully a few years ago, he adjusted his approach to try and hit up-the-middle more often. Of course, a batter like Mountcastle is going to do the most damage on pulled and elevated contact so seeing him diverge from that type of contact is a little worrying.

Keep or Cut?
The good news is that Mountcastle was able to post a wOBA within a couple of points of his .335 mark from 2021 this season. He has the raw power to overcome the deep dimensions of his home park but they’re certainly a hindrance to him reaching his full potential. Without a high ceiling to reach for, his value is capped around $7–10 I think. That kind of production could be an option to use at UTIL, but it’s not good enough to be your full-time 1B. And because he doesn’t have any positional flexibility whatsoever, he’s actually not that great an option at UTIL anyway. I’m probably cutting.

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Andrew Vaughn 1B
Salary: $9
Average Salary: $13.1
2023 P/G: 4.53
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.38

With José Abreu out of the picture, Andrew Vaughn finally had a full-time role at his natural position at first base in 2023. Getting him off the outfield grass helped his defensive value tremendously, but it didn’t have any positive benefit for his production at the plate. His wOBA dropped six points though he was able to post the best power output of his young career. All of his batted ball peripherals look good and he was even able to put the ball into the air more often this year.

Vaughn’s Steamer projection is particularly rosy. The computer sees another pretty significant step forward in power output for him next year plus a slightly higher walk rate which results in a projected wOBA higher than what he’s produced in any of his three seasons in the big leagues. If he hits that projection, he’ll easily be worth his average salary. The projection plus the batted ball quality point to a player who will likely be on a number of “breakout” lists this offseason.

I’m not totally convinced, however. The White Sox really screwed with Vaughn’s development, first by calling him up before he had even accumulated 250 minor league plate appearances and then by sticking him in the outfield for two years. He’s had solid batted ball peripherals all three seasons in the majors but his results have been rather lackluster nonetheless. And now that he’s lost outfield eligibility, the onus to produce at the plate will be even higher.

Keep or Cut?
That Steamer projection is really enticing; the Auction Calculator believes that projection will be worth somewhere between $13 and $15. It’s probably worth the risk to keep him at $9 to see if he can really take that big step forward, but I’d want to have a backup plan in place just in case he sticks around the production level he’s already established.

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Wilmer Flores 1B/3B
Salary: $7
Average Salary: $4.5
2023 P/G: 5.21
Projected 2024 P/G: 5.33

There are a bunch of competing factors that make Wilmer Flores somewhat overlooked by fantasy players. He’s old-ish and has been around forever — he’s entering his age-32 season and his 12th season in the big leagues — he’s more of a part-time player than someone you can count on everyday, and he’s a right-handed batter who mashes left-handed pitching. All of that contributes to glossing over the fact that he produced a career-best .368 wOBA this year.

Those factors also make this keep or cut decision a little tricky. Flores only played in 126 games in 2023 and only missed 10 days to an IL stint for a foot contusion in June. When you isolate the games he started and ignore the games he entered as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement, his points per game jumps from 5.21 up to 6.19. That’s a tremendous improvement in production, even if it’s a little intermittent. Rostering him means you absolutely need to have a second option to rotate into your lineup when Flores is on the bench which makes roster and lineup management a little more intensive.

The other complicating factor is that Flores lost 2B eligibility which really hurts his flexibility and potential value as an option at MI. He certainly can have some value as a part-time 3B in your lineup since that position is a lot shallower these days. And if you’re only using him when he starts, there’s a possibility that he’d even be an option at 1B provided you have another option to pair with him there.

Keep or Cut?
I don’t mind the headache of keeping tabs on when Flores is starting and the deep rosters in Ottoneu make platooning a viable fantasy strategy. $7 is probably the upper limit I’d want to invest in a part-time player, but Flores’s production definitely makes it worth it.