Paul Sporer’s 2023 Outfielder Rankings

February 7, 2023

I’ve always found OF a tricky position because with all the superstars at the top, it feels deep until you realize that everyone needs at least 5 in the standard format plus the fact that some will be taken for an infield position where they qualify. In the drafts I’ve done so far, I start to feel the OF pinch pretty early as the foundational options really dry up and you are taking guys with real question marks in your OF2/3 spots if you wait too long. There is plenty of talent and you can definitely hit on those question marks, but if you want to feel good about your OF, consider early investments.

I didn’t list the two major catchers who qualify because you really shouldn’t be using Varsho or Melendez at OF in any circumstance. Their value is greatly improved by being C-eligible, so if you are using them at OF, you are using a sub-optimal lineup.

2023 Outfielder Ranks

RK	NAME	TEAM	LG	ALLPOS
1	Aaron Judge	NYY	AL	OF/DH
2	Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	NL	OF/DH
3	Kyle Tucker	HOU	AL	OF
4	Julio Rodríguez	SEA	AL	OF
5	Mookie Betts	LAD	NL	OF
6	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	AL	OF/DH
7	Mike Trout	LAA	AL	OF
8	Juan Soto	SD	NL	OF
9	Randy Arozarena	TB	AL	OF/DH
10	Cedric Mullins	BAL	AL	OF
11	Michael Harris II	ATL	NL	OF
12	Starling Marte	NYM	NL	OF
13	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	NL	SS/OF
14	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	NL	OF
15	George Springer	TOR	AL	OF/DH
16	Luis Robert Jr.	CHW	AL	OF
17	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	NL	OF
18	Eloy Jiménez	CHW	AL	OF/DH
19	Byron Buxton	MIN	AL	OF/DH
20	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	NL	OF
21	Christian Yelich	MIL	NL	OF/DH
22	Taylor Ward	LAA	AL	OF
23	Jake McCarthy	ARI	NL	OF
24	Nick Castellanos	PHI	NL	OF
25	Ian Happ	CHC	NL	OF
26	Kris Bryant	COL	NL	OF
27	Hunter Renfroe	LAA	AL	OF
28	Corbin Carroll	ARI	NL	OF
29	Tyler O’Neill	STL	NL	OF
30	Andrew Vaughn	CHW	AL	1B/OF/DH
31	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	NL	OF
32	Adolis García	TEX	AL	OF/DH
33	Harrison Bader	NYY	AL	OF
34	Anthony Santander	BAL	AL	OF/DH
35	Wil Myers	CIN	NL	1B/OF
36	Jake Fraley	CIN	NL	OF
37	Riley Greene	DET	AL	OF
38	Alex Verdugo	BOS	AL	OF
39	Steven Kwan	CLE	AL	OF
40	Teoscar Hernández	SEA	AL	OF
41	Andrew Benintendi	CHW	AL	OF
42	Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	AL	OF/DH
43	Lars Nootbaar	STL	NL	OF
44	Cody Bellinger	CHC	NL	OF
45	Masataka Yoshida	BOS	AL	OF
46	Edward Olivares	KC	AL	OF
47	Gavin Lux	LAD	NL	2B/OF
48	Whit Merrifield	TOR	AL	2B/OF
49	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	ARI	NL	OF
50	Seth Brown	OAK	AL	1B/OF
51	Mitch Haniger	SF	NL	OF
52	Austin Meadows	DET	AL	OF
53	Leody Taveras	TEX	AL	OF
54	Jeff McNeil	NYM	NL	2B/OF
55	Oswaldo Cabrera	NYY	AL	OF
56	TJ Friedl	CIN	NL	OF
57	Adam Duvall	BOS	AL	OF
58	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	NL	OF
59	Lane Thomas	WAS	NL	OF
60	Oscar Gonzalez	CLE	AL	OF
61	Jesse Winker	MIL	NL	OF
62	Avisaíl García	MIA	NL	OF
63	Trent Grisham	SD	NL	OF
64	Brandon Marsh	PHI	NL	OF
65	Christopher Morel	CHC	NL	2B/OF
66	Jose Siri	TB	AL	OF
67	Randal Grichuk	COL	NL	OF
68	Chris Taylor	LAD	NL	2B/OF
69	Akil Baddoo	DET	AL	OF
70	Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	NL	OF
71	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	NL	OF/DH
72	Myles Straw	CLE	AL	OF
73	Joey Meneses	WAS	NL	1B/OF
74	Nick Gordon	MIN	AL	2B/OF
75	Max Kepler	MIN	AL	OF
76	Enrique Hernández	BOS	AL	OF
77	Kerry Carpenter	DET	AL	OF
78	Jurickson Profar	N/A	N/A	OF
79	Jarred Kelenic	SEA	AL	OF
80	Trey Mancini	CHC	NL	1B/OF/DH
81	Kyle Isbel	KC	AL	OF
82	Ramón Laureano	OAK	AL	OF
83	Charlie Blackmon	COL	NL	OF/DH
84	Garrett Mitchell	MIL	NL	OF
85	Chas McCormick	HOU	AL	OF
86	Austin Hays	BAL	AL	OF
87	Manuel Margot	TB	AL	OF
88	Jorge Soler	MIA	NL	OF
89	Dylan Carlson	STL	NL	OF
90	AJ Pollock	CHW	AL	OF
91	Joc Pederson	SF	NL	OF
92	Mark Canha	NYM	NL	OF
93	Esteury Ruiz	OAK	AL	OF
94	Tommy Pham	NYM	NL	OF
95	LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	NL	1B/OF
96	Kyle Stowers	BAL	AL	OF
97	Drew Waters	KC	AL	OF
98	Brendan Donovan	STL	NL	2B/3B/OF
99	Tony Kemp	OAK	AL	2B/OF
100	Michael Conforto	SF	NL	OF
101	Brian Anderson	MIL	NL	3B/OF
102	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	AL	OF
103	James Outman	LAD	NL	OF
104	Nick Senzel	CIN	NL	OF
105	Trayce Thompson	LAD	NL	OF
106	Gavin Sheets	CHW	AL	OF
107	Harold Ramírez	TB	AL	1B/OF/DH
108	Nate Eaton	KC	AL	OF
109	Oscar Colas	CHW	AL	OF
110	Aledmys Díaz	OAK	AL	2B/OF
111	Adam Frazier	BAL	AL	2B/OF
112	Juan Yepez	STL	NL	OF
113	Victor Robles	WAS	NL	OF
114	Michael Brantley	HOU	AL	OF/DH
115	Michael Toglia	COL	NL	OF
116	Bubba Thompson	TEX	AL	OF
117	Aaron Hicks	NYY	AL	OF
118	Joey Gallo	MIN	AL	OF
119	Cal Mitchell	PIT	NL	OF
120	Michael A. Taylor	MIN	AL	OF
121	Josh H. Smith	TEX	AL	3B/OF
122	Jack Suwinski	PIT	NL	OF
123	Hunter Dozier	KC	AL	1B/3B/OF/DH
124	Estevan Florial	NYY	AL	OF
125	Tyrone Taylor	MIL	NL	OF
126	Yonathan Daza	COL	NL	OF
127	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	NL	OF
128	Eddie Rosario	ATL	NL	OF
129	Matt Vierling	DET	AL	OF
130	Austin Slater	SF	NL	OF
131	Mauricio Dubón	HOU	AL	SS/OF
132	Mickey Moniak	LAA	AL	OF
133	Kevin Kiermaier	TOR	AL	OF
134	Sal Frelick	MIL	NL	OF
135	Conner Capel	OAK	AL	OF
136	Marcell Ozuna	ATL	NL	OF/DH
137	Josh Lowe	TB	AL	OF
138	Brad Miller	TEX	AL	3B/OF/DH
139	Jarren Duran	BOS	AL	OF
140	Alek Thomas	ARI	NL	OF
141	Jo Adell	LAA	AL	OF
142	Trevor Larnach	MIN	AL	OF
143	Chad Pinder	CIN	NL	OF
144	Nick Maton	DET	AL	OF
145	Vidal Bruján	TB	AL	2B/OF
146	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	AL	OF
147	Corey Dickerson	WAS	NL	OF/DH
148	Colton Cowser	BAL	AL	OF
149	Will Brennan	CLE	AL	OF
150	Alex Call	WAS	NL	OF

20 gm qualification; 5×5 Roto; Blue indicates new tier

NOTES:

Even slicing off 25% of his HR, 20% of his R, and 15% of his RBI, Aaron Judge still comes out as my top outfielder (and overall #1 player). There is a strong case for many guys in that #1 overall spot, but it is somewhat surprising that Judge is just the 5th player off the board, going as late as #8 in January Draft Champions leagues.

I suspect Ronald Acuña Jr.’s power will return as he gets further from his ACL injury. I like him to make a strong run at 30-30 with a real shot at 40-40!

The Astros need to bat Kyle Tucker in the 2-spot instead of the 5- and 6-spots like last year. No offense to Michael Brantley, of course. Tucker is their next superstar and costing him surplus plate appearances by slotting him outside the top 4 just doesn’t make much sense at this point.

The Mariners actively slowed Julio Rodríguez down in the second half as he went from 21 SBs in 91 games during the 1st half to just 4 in 41 after the break. I don’t think he’ll be that slowed to that degree across all of 2023, but will he be allowed to push for 30 SBs? Even with 20-25, he is still a monster, capable of putting up the top fantasy season.

There’s a world where Mookie Betts gets his BABIP back in the .300+ range and brings his AVG up 20-30 points from the .267 it’s been at the last two years. He is still a total stud at this level, but it’s nice to know that there’s a tinge of upside even with an established superstar like him.

Speaking of superstar upside baked into an established profile, Mike Trout still has that if he can spike some health. I can’t put 150 games into my projection because it just sets up disappointment, but he went 40/80/85 in just 119 last year and remains an unquestioned stud even with the SB drop-off (just 4 SBs in 208 G since ’20).

Juan Soto didn’t love his new confines in San Diego, hitting just .220/.336/.374 in 108 PA at Petco Park. He also had just a .249 BABIP all year including his Washington work in what ended up just being a down year. Petco Park (28th for lefties the last 3 yrs) is definitely a worse place to hit than Nationals Park (9th) and yet I think Soto will be just fine in San Diego in his first full year with the Padres.

I have a bit more concern than the market on Michael Harris II, who is going 27th overall (OF10) since the New Year. He has fallen as low as 42nd which is a spot where I’d be more comfortable taking him, making a choice between Harris, Randy Arozarena, and Cedric Mullins.

Fernando Tatis Jr. might return from his shoulder injury and be just fine, but I’m not interested in taking on the risk and built in 20 missed games. YMMV.

I’m on the Seiya Suzuki breakout train! A finger injury interrupted his solid stateside debut and he doesn’t need a massive skills surge to go off in 2023. Some pop, some speed, and an improved lineup in Chicago give him a chance at increased output across the board if he stays healthy this year and that’s what I’m looking for out of the 28-year-old Cub. If he improves his success on the bases (64% last yr; 61% in Japan), a truly special season could be on tap, but his success doesn’t hinge on that.

At this juncture, I operate as though George Springer will miss 25-30 games off the top and work from there. Of course, he is still my 15th OF so if he does recapture some health and top 600 PA again, he has easy top 10 potential.

Speaking of penciling in some time missed, I feel that is a must with the White Sox duo of Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez. Their skills are off the charts, especially Robert with the power and speed, but I couldn’t slot either for even 140 games just yet. That said, I’m ahead of the market on Jiménez and have already landed him on multiple teams… which is why I was less than thrilled to see he still wants to play the outfield. Please for the love of god, no!

I’d be remiss to have what has become a de facto “time missed” section and not discuss Byron Buxton. He’s so good that he slots 19th even with just 120 games for me. Obviously, there is obscene upside if he finds some real healthy, but he has topped 92 games just once with his 140 back in 2017 so betting on that health seems foolhardy. Just make sure you can cover missed time and you haven’t pinned all your hopes on doing something he has done exactly once.

Kyle Schwarber was a surprise leadoff hitter in 2022, logging 82% of his plate appearances from that spot and embracing the customs of the role by stealing a 10 bases! That was more than the 9 he had from 2017-21 combined! Don’t bet on a repeat there, but he remains a major contender to lead the NL and perhaps the entire league in homers.

Christian Yelich is more like his Miami-self with a lesser batting average than the MVP of 2018-19, but that’s still a quality double-double gem with plenty of runs atop a decent Milwaukee lineup. The back issues make it hard to see any sort of realistic return to that MVP level.

Taylor Ward’s shoulder injury stopped him dead in his tracks after a beautiful start (10 HR, 1.145 OPS through May), but he rebounded once healthy again with a huge September (6 HR, .972 OPS) and I love the idea of him hitting atop that Angels order behind Trout and Ohtani.

I was a bit surprised to see where Jake McCarthy slotted among my OFs after doing the projections, but that’s what 30 SBs can do for you! Elsewhere in their outfield, I had a hard time settling on Corbin Carroll’s projected numbers given the brilliant work he did at Double- and Triple-A last year when he hit 24 HR with 31 SBs in just 93 games of work including a .307/.425/.611 line. It wasn’t quite as rosy in the majors with 4 HR, 2 SB, and a .260 AVG in his 115 PA debut. The lack of running was a bit surprising though it’s still a tiny sample overall. I like him, but the market has Carroll at OF19 and I just can’t get behind that right now.

I can’t pay the premium on Adolis García. His glove should keep him in the lineup even if he struggles (unless he just falls off the table which is in the range of outcomes), but he has brutal plate skills and he’s a late breakout at 30 years old, so I’m willing to miss him. According to the market, I definitely will as he is OF16 in winter drafts.

I’d much rather just wait for Harrison Bader at OF39 and see if he can essentially put 2021 and 2022 together for a quality double-double campaign. He is another player who desperately needs to find some more consistent health (career-high PA is 427), but I think his skills are in place so if he does reach 490-500 PA, a big season is in order.

My Reds gems – Wil Myers and Jake Fraley – wound up right next to each other despite different breakdowns in their stats with Myers generating more power and AVG and Fraley excelling in SBs. I didn’t go crazy with their PA projections, landing just over 500 for both, so there’s playing time upside for the pair as well.

Alex Verdugo is one of those interesting players where he ranks well in fantasy output (27th OF last year) especially compared to his draft price (OF42), but still doesn’t quite pack enough punch and can be tricky to slot onto a team if your HR and SB totals can’t absorb his underwhelming returns (14 HR, 5 SB per 600 PA).

Is it lazy to call Masataka Yoshida a Diet Verdugo? I just have a hard time looking at his profile and not coming up with a projection that looks very similar to Verdugo’s in terms of AVG, HR, SB and then some adjustments to the R/RBI based on Yoshida likely leading off and Verdugo likely spending a lot of time in the 5-spot as he did last year.

Did the Tigers tailor their park changes specifically for Riley Greene? Maybe not just him as their expected lineup has five lefties, all of whom are on the right side of 30 years old and should see an offensive uptick with the alterations. I’m hoping Greene’s 10% SwStr rate (11% lg. avg) is indicative that his 29% K rate will come down substantially in his first full year as a major leaguer or else I fear he will come up short on fantasy expectations particularly when you consider that the supporting cast is unlikely to do much for his R/RBI totals.

While I do have some reservations about Teoscar Hernández moving from Toronto to Seattle, he has enough pop to survive anywhere. He has never been a particularly healthy player, though, and his next 600 PA season will be his first so that paired with a drop in park support has moved him down my board.

I played it pretty cautiously with Lars Nootbaar’s homer projection (19 HR), though his power and plate skills profile has me thinking that 30+ could certainly happen in a breakout season. And I’m not just talking like a 5% chance in which case you could say that about tons of potential player outcomes, but more like 25%+ chance if he builds on what we saw in the 2H last year… plus there’s always Cardinals Devil Magic, which could be worth 6-7 HRs on its own!

Will the ol’ change of scenery spark something for Cody Bellinger? I could only get so excited about that prospect with a .225 AVG, 22 HR, and 17 SB. I’d love for him to eclipse all of those as he is fun to root for, but venturing too far beyond my projection would simply be wishcasting.

Gavin Lux has yet to fully tap into his raw power and it’s time for him to take a real step forward. He eclipsed 1000 career PA last season (1003) and he’s been essentially average in that time with a 99 wRC+. He has just 9 HR and 7 SB per 500 PA, though, so it’s time to show some legitimate fantasy juice.

The trade of Michael A. Taylor put a substantial boost in my Edward Olivares projection, boosting him to 500 PA even though I don’t have him directly taking over the centerfield role vacated by Taylor. Olivares might’ve had a path to that many plate appearances even before the deal, but clearing out the full-time CF adds a level of security to the playing time for Olivares, Drew Waters, and Kyle Isbel, all of whom could have solid power-speed seasons in 2023.

Check out my thoughts on Whit Merrifield’s season in this 2022 Biggest Busts piece.

While no one would confuse Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for a power stud, his painfully unlucky 4% HR/FB rate was the primary reason for the power outage. The Barrel Rate sank to 4%, too, but his Hard Hit rate was actually up and his 95th Percentile Exit Velo was barely off his 2021 pace so I’m reluctant to think he just can’t get his homers back, even in Arizona.

Is the Leody Taveras breakout nigh? The 24-year-old speedster had a solid 99-game run last season with a .261 AVG, 5 HR, and 11 SB which should put him in line to get a full-time job this year. It feels like he has been around for a long time despite still being so young and having just 660 MLB PA under his belt.

I am well ahead of the market on Oswaldo Cabrera at OF53 compared to his OF81 ADP in Draft Champions leagues since January 1st. While he lacks a locked in everyday job as of now, he got time at five positions (well, six if you count the individual OF spots as he played both RF and LF) and could be a big time super utilityman until something more permanent opens up.

TJ Friedl is yet another intriguing Reds outfielder. He has a strong plate profile with some pop and speed. Friedl put up 8 HR and 7 SB in 258 PA last year with the Reds and another 8 HR and 10 SB in 241 PA at Triple-A. He has a chance to lead off in a fantastic park which could yield a well-priced double-double campaign.

I had some excitement for Lane Thomas last year, but he remains underwhelming against righties (.682 OPS, 136th of 199 hitters with at least 300 PA vRH) which caps the upside. A 200-point dip in BABIP against lefties (.279) undercut his 2022 output, too. He was never going to hold 2021’s mark of .479, of course, but if he can live in the low-to-mid .300s against them, that gives him some AVG upside (.250s-.260s). A boost in OBP plus the new rule set that favors SBs could yield a double-digit output, making him a solid double-double glue guy.

Oscar Gonzalez only struck out 20% of the time in his MLB debut, but heed the 14% SwStr for the free-swinging outfielder (4% BB). Only Javier Báez (49%) topped Gonzalez’s 48% O-Swing (swings outside the zone) among 246 hitters with at least 350 PA. I’d be surprised if he repeated the .296 AVG from last year and there’s real risk of something in the .250 or below range. Thankfully, he has the power to blast 25+ HRs and still be a net positive, just make sure you aren’t relying on him to boost your AVG based on his debut.

I’m in on Trent Grisham (OF82) and Avisaíl García (OF85) rebuys at their prices. They had disaster seasons as OF35 and OF43 last year and while they both have obvious flaws that could mitigate comeback seasons, I’ll take the shot on one or the other in some drafts.

Andrew McCutchen is still productive, especially against lefties. His 20+ HR days might be behind him at 36 years old especially if they tailor his time a bit against righties, though a return to Pittsburgh might actually give him a shot at everyday burn for old time’s sake!

Joey Meneses ranked 14th on my 1B ranking a month ago, but I’ve made major adjustments to his projection since then which has caused him to slide down the rankings quite a bit (1B32 now). The changes were mostly in his volume, shaving 31 PA off and tamping down the R/RBI totals to 60/65. I still see a .255 AVG with 23 HR which seems totally fine for the random 31-year-old breakout with a whopping 2 months of MLB time under his belt.

Yes, Max Kepler looks like a candidate to raise his AVG… it’s been that way for about 32 years based on his quality plate profile (15% K, 11% BB last year; 18% K, 10% BB career), legit pop (.195 career ISO despite last year’s dud), and what appears to be a lagging BABIP (.248 career). Despite all that, he has hit north of .250 just once (.252 in 2019). The new crackdown on shifts once again has Kep fans hoping for an AVG surge, but he actually has a 19-point advantage against the shift (.237 v. no shift) so I’m not sure that’s the magic fix, either! He priced to buy at OF91, just keep the expectations in check.

I can’t write every OF up, but Justin and I did three OF preview pods you can find here: OUTFIELD 1, 2, 3

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equistmember

1 year ago

Or is Verdugo a diet Yoshida?

Paul Sporermember

Reply to equist

Oooh maybe, but I think we need to see Yoshida first. That transition year can be tricky so I’m gonna give him some runway to figure things out before putting too many expectations on his statline

Reply to Paul Sporer

True but (and this is cherry picking using a pitcher as an example) remember when Wei-Yin Chen came over? He spend no time in the minors, and took off running not because he was new, and it took people a while to figure him out. I could probably find a hitter if … maybe Gurriel? Better player than Chen or Yoshida, but he hardly spent anytime in the minors and was MLB ready.
I do think the excitement on players like Yoshida does push their price up during a draft, but Boston gave this guy a great multi year deal, and their not rubes, Art Moreno or something.