While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
We’ve been doing rookie check-ins for hitters and pitchers lately. The most recent rookie hitter check-ins are found here, with an examination of a few other starting pitchers. Rookies have been making an impact on our fantasy squads, and many are deserving of more attention. In this week’s rookie check-in, we’re shifting back to starting pitchers. One starting pitcher has some name value to jump on. Meanwhile, a few others might be undervalued in deeper leagues. We’ll examine these four rookie starting pitchers to figure out whether to buy, sell, or hold them in keeper and dynasty formats.
Moving on from looking at players who potentially might run out of luck in the previous piece, we now look to the other end of the chart, and some hitters who may be due some good fortune.
While identifying the hitters I thought had potential regression was easy, with plenty of highly-rostered bats in the top region of the chart with interesting data as to why they were outperforming their xwOBA in terms of BABIP, finding who to highlight at the other end was more challenging.
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
Woo has just a 6.26 ERA over his L4 but three were on the road and he’s really developed a venue-based split this year. He has a 2.37 ERA/0.71 WHIP in 6 home starts but 5.93/1.32 on the road in 8 starts. He’s always had that split, but it used to be elite at home and simply good on the road (3.71 ERA/1.09 WHIP coming into this year). A 12-point drop to 19% K rate on the road is what pushes me to taking this split more seriously. As such, I might be open to skipping his at PIT next week, at least in shallower formats. I still think even a diminished Woo is probably better than what most people have on their bench or wire in 15-teamers (not that you’d cut him, I’m not advocating of that at all, just saying you were looking for someone to fill-in next week off the wire).
Messick now has 120 career IP of 2.69 ERA/1.16 WHIP… what a stud! Someone brought up possibly trading him in my chat as a preemptive strike against a possible IP limit, but he threw 138.3 IP last year between the majors and minors so even just a 15% bump gets us 160 and shouldn’t require any major layoffs to get there.
Gray has been finding his footing of late with a 2.29 ERA and 24% K in 7 starts since coming off the IL (4.30/1.30 before that).
Is Manaea recapturing his 2024 groove? 2.91 ERA/0.92 WHIP/22% K-BB in his L5 outings including his first traditional start of the year last time out during which he went 6 strong (2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB).
MIL just keeps twisting the knife of the Devers deal for BOS as Drohan looks to settle into his role. Even with 5 IP/4 ER v. PHI, he still had 7 K/0 BB. His 7% HR/FB probably has some regression coming, but so does the 65% LOB rate so a mid-3.00s ERA with strong supporting skills seems plenty doable. He’s also 27 years old so he doesn’t necessarily have to be babies IP-wise, but on the other hand he has just 70 combined IP the last two years so they also can’t just push him to the max. I’m not concerned about any IP caps right now, though.
Yesavage retains his 3-x status thanks to an easier matchup after posting Duds in 3 of his L4 with 17 BB in the 22.3 IP being a huge problem.
Weathers and Roupp have sputtered significantly over their L5 including 3 straight Duds from Weathers while an 8-bomb at MIL and modest 4.7 IP/4 ER v. CHC last time out overpower 3 solid starts from Roupp in his recent quintet. Both get very difficult matchups, too, so they might even be skippable in 12s depending on your depth and what you need in the standings.
NYY is worse without Judge, but not bad as they sit 12th in wOBA v. righties this month. Burke has labored through a pair of 5 BB outings at PHI and v. LAD but has still managed 13 Ks in the 8.3 IP of work.
SFG has been top 10 vL over the last two weeks (and even better vR) so I haven’t been blindly recommending guys against them and certainly wouldn’t give Pérez if he wasn’t pitching well of late (3.81 ERA/1.19 WHIP in L5).
Jump has been nice in his first 4 starts – 2 home, 2 away – so I’m open to considering him in a lot of spots against the K-heavy Angels (25% K vR).
Leiter’s recent record (6.15 ERA/1.52 WHIP in L5) paired with MIN surging a bit offensively (6th wOBA vR in L14 days and that doesn’t even include their shellacking of Rocker tonight) makes him more of a lottery ticket stream at best.
SEA is no longer a pushover at home, sitting 8th in wOBA vR at home this year and I’ve never been shy about my distrust of Baz, so be careful here.
Obviously a big part of streaming is using less than stable skillsets against weaker opponents but I still want to be discerning and not just blindly start guys I don’t actually trust. To that end, I’m not sure I see many fits for Nola even against the lowly Mets. He’s now at a 5.95 ERA over his last 165 IP thanks in large part to a 1.7 HR9. If he wasn’t named Aaron Nola, we wouldn’t even be giving him a second look. I’m a track record/pedigree guy so I don’t discount a player’s history, but the simple fact is that old Nola isn’t comin’ back!
INF Vaughn Grissom
Injury: Left oblique strain
IL date: June 8 (10-day IL, retroactive to June 6)
Expected return: Mid-June
Status: Began a rehab assignment with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on June 14, going 2-for-5 and playing nine innings at third base. Is expected to play in a few more rehab games but is nearing a return.
Paul Sporer: Hey everyone, thanks for coming out!!
1:04
d_i: True or false. Nick Kurtz has a case to be labeled the best hitter in baseball?
1:06
Paul Sporer: Oh he’s gotta be a part of the conversation for sure. Count me among those who had concerns about his K% coming into this year but when you add 8 pts of BB% (and even shave 3 pts of K%), it’s a totally different situation. The power was already covering the Ks to a degree but the OBP is now such a force. I thought the K% would sting more as BABIP regressed, but he’s up to .389!! That’s not just Sacramento, either: .400 Home/.380 Road
1:06
cjsarpon: Is it time to move on from Palencia? Elbow inflammation could be a long stint, IL spots are tight, wasn’t getting opps, and in a 4-5 point dogfight for saves (SVs only league). Yates, Webb, Theilbar, Santillan best SVs options on wire.
1:09
Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m OK moving on from Palencia. Not pitching well enough when healthy to think he’s a must-hold in any capacity
1:09
Your Pal Al: Two-part question — 10-team AVG/OBP/SLG/H/BB/HR/NSB league.
I spent serious draft capital on Austin Riley and Luke Keaschall hoping to lock down 3B and 2B. Instead, I’ve had to burn valuable roster spots chasing production while benching both of them, and IL hits to my SPs have only made it worse. Should I try to package Riley and Keaschall for starting pitching and roll with Royce Lewis, Matt McLain, Antonacci, and Gelof to rotate through 2B/3B (rank)?
Pulling off trades in our fantasy baseball leagues can be difficult. We usually know our league-mates well, and they often know our true tendencies and intentions, but that shouldn’t stop us from engaging. We should be active with trade conversations to improve our rosters in our quest for league titles. This weekly column will recommend hitters and pitchers to try selling high or buying low on, and I’ll try to present realistic opportunities. Below are two players to target in trades and two to consider dealing.
Last week, we examined a few starting pitchers who gained stuff and command in May and June. This time, we’re looking at starting pitchers who lost stuff and command since May 1. Pitchers can go through stretches of gaining and losing stuff and command, with these metrics fluctuating over time. The visual below shows the pitchers who lost two points in their Stuff+ and Location+ since May 1.
