Author Archive: Corbin Young

So many hitters gained $15 in value in the second half that we had to break this into two parts. In Part 1, hitters who gained $15 in value in the second half included Alex Bregman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Lindor, and others. Sometimes, players who struggle throughout the season or late in the year can impact their draft cost in the following season.

Can hitters affect their draft cost by performing well in the second half? We’ll highlight several hitters who outperformed their draft value by $15 or more. Specifically, we’re touching on six hitters from this list who earned the most fantasy value in the second half.

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Among hitters with 50 plate appearances in the first and second halves, we examined which hitters earned $15 or more in value in the second half. For some, their value increased because of volume. For others, the increased value came from improved production.

Can hitters affect their draft cost by performing well in the second half? We’ll highlight several hitters who outperformed their draft value by $15 or more. Specifically, we’re touching on eight hitters from this list who earned the most fantasy value in the second half. We’ll cover additional hitters in a future article.

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After Part 1 of examining breakout pitchers drafted past pick 150, we wanted to highlight a few more. The goal was to highlight other pitchers who might not be household names beyond 1-2 pitchers in this article. Can these breakout starting pitchers sustain their success in 2027? What do the underlying skills and metrics indicate? Without knowing their 2027 draft prices, we’re projecting how to value them early into the 2027 fantasy baseball off-season. We won’t discuss Parker Messick or Payton Tolle because we highlighted them late in the season.

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We’re looking at breakout pitchers today, specifically arms drafted beyond pick 150 who returned at least $10 more in value in 12-team leagues than they were projected to earn. We highlighted the five starting pitchers that we examined in the table below.

After finding more than five starting pitchers worth highlighting, a second article will cover a few more. Can these breakout starting pitchers sustain their success in 2027? What do the underlying skills and metrics indicate? Without knowing their 2027 draft prices, we’re projecting how to value them early into the 2027 fantasy baseball off-season.

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Today we will follow-up on the breakout hitters article, this time looking at highly drafted players who underperformed expectations. The table below shows bats who were among some of the biggest under-performers in 2026. All of these players were drafted in the top 150 of 12-team leagues and earned at least $15 less than they were projected to earn.

Many of the them fell short of projected volume, due mainly to injuries or other factors. For some, their skills were similar, but the luck factors regressed. For others, the outlier season coincides with unexpected skill changes. But they all fell short of what we expected when we drafted them.

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Today we’re looking at hitters who earned $10 in value that broke out in 12-team leagues. A breakout is a player who drastically outperformed their projected value, with some being drafted in the final round of 12-team leagues or going undrafted. We’re using those arbitrary cutoffs to find players who provided solid fantasy value but somewhat came out of nowhere. I imagine if we filtered by dates, some of these draft prices would change, so take that with a grain of salt.

Draft price aside, are those breakouts legitimate? Should we buy or sell those performances as an early look toward 2027? Is there something that could have predicted those breakouts to help us in the future? We hope to answer those questions when analyzing these players. Given the large sample, we’ll break this up into multiple articles.

We won’t discuss Jake Bauers, Jake McCarthy, and Jordan Walker, because we covered them in an earlier article on hitters who drastically outperformed their projected value this season. That said, Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami, and Kevin McGonigle were highly sought-after hitters, but they don’t have an ADP listed on the Player Rater. In most 12-team leagues, Okamoto, Murakami, and McGonigle had an ADP around pick 200 or earlier.

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I’ve written a couple of late-season articles on overperformers and underperformers based on projected versus earned value. As someone who spends plenty of time examining pitchers, my fantasy teams admittedly struggled in pitching points. My team’s pitching ratios exploded due to blowup outings from Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, and others.

On the hitter side, I rostered plenty of veteran players that might be seen as boring ones. Common hitters on my roster included Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Bryan Reynolds, and Seiya Suzuki. In one 12-team league, I started with Ronald Acuña Jr., Garrett Crochet, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Geraldo Perdomo.

On another 12-teamer, I went with Shohei Ohtani, Treat Turner, Ketel Marte, William Contreras, Hunter Brown, Suzuki, Carlos Estevez, Corey Seager, Alex Bregman, and Spencer Strider with my first 10 picks. Unsurprisingly, that team struggled across the board.

I’ll walk through a few lessons from my draft and in-season strategy from the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

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We’re doing a follow-up article on pitchers who underperformed their projected value after looking at those who outperformed. Many of these pitchers were injured, including Brandon Woodruff, Cole Ragans, Daniel Palencia, Edward Cabrera, Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Strider. Meanwhile, several struggled relative to expectations, like Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, and others.

The table below shows pitchers who lost $10 in value compared to their projected dollars within the top 200 picks.

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Last week, we covered hitters who outperformed and underperformed their projected value. We’re doing the same exercise for pitchers, focusing on starters. We won’t discuss all these pitchers below, but here is the list of pitchers who outperformed their expected value by a least $10 this season.

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We’re following up on an earlier article about hitters who are outperforming their projected value this season. But there’s also the other side of that coin: 19 hitters among the top 200 picks who are underperforming their projected value by at least $20. Unsurprisingly, the hitters drafted within the top 50 picks who were injured or struggled have been the biggest busts.

The visual below shows hitters who have lost $20 or more this season.

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