Author Archive

AL Lineup Analysis (5/23/19)

Angels

  • The lineup was getting into a routine until Andrelton Simmons busted up his ankle and headed to the IL. Some of the regulars moved around with Lis Rengifo taking over the second base duties and hitting at the bottom of the lineup.
  • Albert Pujols has started three of the last six games at first base with Jared Walsh the other three times. Pujols may already be wearing down.

Astros

  • A once steady lineup has seen some changes with George Springer dealing with a bad back and Jose Altuve out with a strained hamstring. Aledmys Diaz (.279/.313/.512) and Jake Marisnick (.284/.344/.545) have performed decently in their absence.
  • It seems that Tyler White (.643 OPS) was sitting more with Josh Reddick (.845 OPS) being the DH until Springer got hurt. When Springer returns, White will likely head back to the bench.

Athletics

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Blind Faith with Four Suspect Closers

In Tout Wars this year, have been graced with four suspect closers but they’ve caused me to ponder how to handle the “riches”. The issue is that they are not stable and I’d not be surprised if all four were out of a job next month. I polled my Twitter followers to see which one they had the most faith in.

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Who is Being Dropped and Why

With FAAB-ageddon over, it’s time to see who were the most dropped players in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues.

Injury

Demoted

  • Teoscar Hernandez (22): I was using him as a spot starter on a couple of my teams hoping he’d get hot. It was nice to have the Blue Jays to make the decision to move on for me.
  • Jeimer Candelario (20): Another borderline talent coming into the season who was sent down.

Note: In “The Process”, we wrote: “Any major leaguer with an OPS below .635 looks to be below average and could be replaceable.” Candelario was at .573 and Hernandez was at .562. The current low OPS list (min 100 PA) is littered with hitters who have been demoted (Justin Bour and Mallex Smith) or “injured” (Travis Shaw and Ender Inciarte). Any player under a .635 OPS and especially a .600 OPS could be at risk for losing their job.

Other

  • Francisco Cervelli (17): He’s not hitting (.505) and losing playing time to Elias Diaz (.537 OPS). It’s a pillow fight between these two.
  • Aledmys Diaz (16): He could have been placed under the Injury heading since a hamstring issue may bench him some this week. And Jose Altuve may be back at the week’s end killing all of Diaz’s current fantasy value.
  • Nick Kingham (15): He was demoted mid-week to the bullpen but now he may be starting on Wednesday.
  • Brandon Kintzler (14): This Saves grab didn’t pan out.
  • Derek Holland (14): Moved to the bullpen after struggling (7.36 ERA).
  • Ryan O’Hearn (13): While his .648 OPS is above the demotion line, he’s useless to fantasy owners.
  • Erik Swanson (13): Nine runs in three innings in his last start. He can’t even be streamed at this point.
  • Eric Thames (12): He’s played in 18 games this month and started in only nine of them. The results (.189/.434/.270) are Joey Votto-ish.
  • Austin Hedges (11): There are even a baseline catcher hitting thresholds and a .531 OPS doesn’t cut it.
  • John Means (11): One start this week at Colorado. A reasonable drop but might be a cheap add later if he gets pounded.
  • Julio Urias (11): Administrative leave for domestic battery.
  • Junior Guerra (11):’He’s got a couple of Saves but Josh Hader looks to be the closer.
  • Lou Trivino (11): Some owners were slow at dropping Trivino after picking him up when Blake Treinen had an injury scare.
  • Emilio Pagan (10): Not the official closer but might get 10 Saves with elite counting stats (13.5 K/9, 0.68 WHP, and 0.61 ERA).
  • Ian Kennedy (10): Another potential closer in which some owners were tired of holding on to.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (10): A .421 OPS
  • Jeremy Hellickson (10): Owners who took the Hellickson two-step were rewarded with a 4 K’s, 2.13 WHIP, and 9.00 ERA. Congrats.
  • Trevor Cahill (10): I was looking to add Cahill when possible this past FAAB period. While I’m not keen on his matchup this week (home versus Minnesota), he has a nice two-step at Oakland and at Seattle next week.

Here are the players dropped in five or more leagues.

Players Dropped in the NFBC Main Event
Name Drops (38 leagues)
Jonathan Loaisiga 32
Miguel Andujar 29
Teoscar Hernandez 22
Jeimer Candelario 20
Anibal Sanchez 18
David Robertson 18
Francisco Cervelli 17
Jed Lowrie 17
Aledmys Diaz 16
Nick Margevicius 16
Nick Kingham 15
Brandon Kintzler 14
Delino DeShields 14
Derek Holland 14
Garrett Hampson 14
A.J. Minter 13
Erik Swanson 13
Ryan O’Hearn 13
Eric Thames 12
Austin Hedges 11
John Means 11
Julio Urias 11
Junior Guerra 11
Kelvin Gutierrez 11
Lou Trivino 11
Emilio Pagan 10
Ian Kennedy 10
Jackie Bradley Jr. 10
Jeremy Hellickson 10
Trevor Cahill 10
Brad Keller 9
Chris Martin 9
Christin Stewart 9
David Bote 9
Freddy Peralta 9
Manuel Margot 9
Renato Nunez 9
Reyes Moronta 9
Seranthony Dominguez 9
Stephen Vogt 9
Carlos Gonzalez 8
Harold Ramirez 8
Homer Bailey 8
Justin Bour 8
Mike Fiers 8
Ryan Brasier 8
Starlin Castro 8
Anthony Swarzak 7
Charlie Tilson 7
Hernan Perez 7
Ivan Nova 7
J.P. Crawford 7
Jakob Junis 7
John Gant 7
Ryan Cordell 7
Tim Beckham 7
Tony Wolters 7
Wilmer Font 7
Archie Bradley 6
Brian Anderson 6
Chris Iannetta 6
Cody Allen 6
Cole Tucker 6
Ender Inciarte 6
Jefry Rodriguez 6
Jon Duplantier 6
Mac Williamson 6
Merrill Kelly 6
Mitch Garver 6
Orlando Arcia 6
Rowdy Tellez 6
Ty France 6
Tyler Beede 6
Vince Velasquez 6
Aaron Sanchez 5
Albert Pujols 5
Andrew Miller 5
Austin Barnes 5
Blake Swihart 5
Brett Anderson 5
Chad Pinder 5
Chris Davis 5
Dereck Rodriguez 5
Drew Pomeranz 5
Grayson Greiner 5
Jason Heyward 5
Jeff Samardzija 5
Jeremy Jeffress 5
Johan Camargo 5
John Hicks 5
Josh Harrison 5
Jung Ho Kang 5
Luis Rengifo 5
Mike Zunino 5
Nick Anderson 5
Trent Thornton 5
Willy Adames 5
Yonder Alonso 5

Sunday Night FAAB & Waiver Wire Chat

7:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll go ahead and get started.

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: As usual, I will answer all the FAAB and waiver wire questions first. Also, I’m going to try to group the “rank these X players” into one huge ranking. Maybe.

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: First off, here are the Tout Wars 15-team mixed league results.

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: ARiley: 384
WCalhoun: 311
BRodgers: 232
NLopez: 177
OMercado: 134
BDozier: 57
JLuplow: 44
SAnderson: 37
RElias: 33
FGalvis: 27
TCahill: 26
SKingery: 25
HBader: 22
RHealy: 18
JDDavis: 16
AOttavino: 15
MKeller: 13
CQuantrill: 12
LMartin: 12
ASenzatela: 7
KMorales: 7
TWolters: 6
DMengden: 3
ELauer: 3
AAlmora: 3
GCooper: 3
PNeshek: 2
MCabrera: 1
PSandoval: 0
BBrennan: 0

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

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Week 9 FAAB Projections

This week’s mixed league FAAB run, especially in The NFBC where Corbin Martin is still available, will have the most money spent that I can ever remember. It reminds of an Only league at the trade deadline. There are just so many moving parts. I’m going to try to cover it all but let me know if any questions come up and I’ll try to answer them.

The guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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AL Lineup Analysis (5/16/19)

Angels

Astros

  • The league’s steadiest lineup took a hit when Altuve went on the IL. Everyone else moved up a spot with Aledmys Diaz taking over at second base and batting 6th.

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Does Skin in the Game Matter?

A while back, I brought forward my thoughts on being 100% transparent about my weekly player acquisitions. The article started many discussions, but my thoughts kept coming back to one point. Does it matter that I have some skin in the game? I lucked into a position to provide fantasy content, does it matter if my ideas are successful when there is quite a bit on the line?

Note. For this article, I’ll use tout in place of an industry expert for consistency sake. Also, for the game’s participants, I will use owners.

I felt every tout should have some skin in the game and let their results do some of the talking. Some touts may disagree on this take, but I needed to find out and joined a few NFBC leagues. Besides just rostering a team, I felt I needed to be competitive.

Some of this belief may come from my own insecurities. I know I’m not close to the most entertaining personality, so I think my results may give me credibility. I have no idea if this is true.

Part of the belief comes from Ray Dalio’s book, Principles: Life and Work. In one section he states (p. 376):

“Remember that believable opinions are most likely to come from people 1) who have successfully accomplished the thing in question three times and 2) who have great explanations of the cause-effect relationships that lead them to the conclusions.”

So, do I need to be successful in all formats for others to believe me? So many questions.

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Who is Being Dropped & Why

Another week of players heading to the waiver wire. Here’s a look at most dropped players in the NFBC Main Event (38 leagues).

Injured


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30

nickoless : Do you think Corbin Martin sticks in the rotation?

7:30

Jeff Zimmerman: If he continues to pitch like he did today.

7:31

marichal: Which NL-only minor leaguer is highest waiver wire priority: Riley, Rodgers, Urias, Gallen, or someone else

7:31

Jeff Zimmerman: Gallen

7:31

BigTuna: What % of FAAB are you spending on Corbin Martin in a 12 tm?

7:32

Jeff Zimmerman: After today, I’m afraid he’s in the 5% to 15% range. There is always a Sunday boost

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Week 8 FAAB Projections

With just the normal closer speculation bids, I’d not be surprised if this week had the lowest percentage of remaining FAAB spent so far this season. With Derek Dietrich as the top prize on the hitting side, I don’t expect owners to be spending much.

The guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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