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Reverse Engineering the Sharks: Richards, Means, Lopez, & Cueto

It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone. Give me a sec while I collect tonight’s FAAB bids from Tout Wars

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction:
NHoerner: 191
NMarkakis: 153
KLewis: 75
DLamet: 51
LUrias: 39
SMurphy: 37
CStewart: 37
BreAnderson: 36
NMartini: 27
TFrazier: 26
JChacin: 26
AVoth: 10
LSeverino: 6
ARomine: 3
JrgLopez: 3
TDuffey: 2
SVogt: 2
GGarcia: 1
MDubon: 0
JCastro: 0
MRojas: 0
SLong: 0
DSmeltzer: 0
WCastillo: 0

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: JDiaz: 77
KLewis: 66
NHoerner: 66
JCueto: 13
CMaybin: 8
ROHearn: 2
BNimmo: 2
AVoth: 1

7:35
Jay: Have Rizzo in 10 team redraft. Who are some good pickups?

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Tough to know without options.

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FAAB Projections (9/14/19)

Compared to last week when nothing happened, a few interesting names popped up this week for those still with FAAB left to spend.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Projected FAAB For Hitters
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Cory Spangenberg 2B | MIL 0% 1% 1% $1
Ryan McBroom 1B | KC 0% 1% 1% $1
Cornelius Randolph LF | PHI 0% 1% 1% $1
Tyler Wade 2B | NYY 0% 1% 1% $1
Jose Trevino C | TEX 1% 2% 1% $1
Reese McGuire C | TOR 1% 2% 1% $1
Dylan Moore SS | SEA 2% 3% 1% $1
Cedric Mullins CF | BAL 2% 3% 1% $1
Austin Romine C | NYY 4% 6% 2% $1
Martin Maldonado C | HOU 4% 5% 1% $1
Kyle Lewis CF | SEA 5% 14% 9% $4
Mauricio Dubon SS | SF 6% 8% 2% $1
Nico Hoerner SS | CHC 7% 15% 8% $3
Victor Reyes LF | DET 8% 11% 3% $1
Aledmys Diaz SS | HOU 8% 9% 1% $1
Sean Murphy C | OAK 11% 17% 6% $2
Joey Wendle 2B | TB 13% 15% 2% $1
Austin Nola SS | SEA 17% 21% 4% $2
Christin Stewart LF | DET 17% 18% 1% $1
Eric Thames RF | MIL 18% 21% 3% $2
Nick Solak 2B | TEX 19% 26% 7% $7
Trent Grisham RF | MIL 19% 23% 4% $3
Garrett Cooper LF | MIA 25% 27% 2% $5
Adam Frazier 2B | PIT 26% 33% 7% $12
Tommy Edman SS | STL 34% 46% 12% $30
Starlin Castro 2B | MIA 38% 48% 10% $29
Robinson Cano 2B | NYM 43% 49% 6% $26
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 43% 44% 1% $18
Wil Myers LF | SD 48% 66% 18% $68
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 49% 52% 3% $28
  • Kyle Lewis: For any owner needing outfield help, he’s a must-add. The highly-touted prospect is hitting .400/.375/1.067 with three homers in his first four games. If anyone has money left, it’s going towards Lewis.
  • Nico Hoerner and Mauricio Dubon: Both are regulars with Hoerner starting five straight and Dubon nine straight. They both are the same skill-set of a great eye for contact with some speed and power.
  • Nick Solak: A 26% ownership rate is criminally low for someone hitting .342/.453/.570. He’s started 10 straight games while batting cleanup in all but one of those games.
  • Adam Frazier, Tommy Edman, Starlin Castro, and Robinson Cano: While not the sexy options like Hoerner and Dubon, they’re comparable hitters.
  • Wil Myers: A huge jump in ownership, but he should have been owned in deeper leagues since the Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians.
  • Sean Murphy: Since being called up, Muphy is hitting .409/.458/1.091 in eight games with four homers.
Projected FAAB For Pitchers
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Ronald Bolanos SP | SD 0% 2% 2% $1
Seung-Hwan Oh RP | COL 0% 1% 1% $1
James Karinchak RP | CLE 1% 3% 2% $1
Jorge Lopez RP | KC 2% 5% 3% $1
Jairo Diaz RP | COL 3% 7% 4% $1
Nick Wittgren RP | CLE 3% 4% 1% $1
Chad Green RP | NYY 4% 5% 1% $1
Anthony Kay SP | TOR 7% 9% 2% $1
Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK 7% 8% 1% $1
Will Harris RP | HOU 8% 9% 1% $1
Trevor May RP | MIN 9% 10% 1% $1
Arodys Vizcaino RP | SEA 10% 11% 1% $1
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 11% 13% 2% $1
Drew Smyly SP | PHI 14% 16% 2% $1
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 21% 46% 25% $21
Justus Sheffield RP | SEA 27% 35% 8% $1
Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 28% 30% 2% $1
Michael Wacha SP | STL 33% 37% 4% $1
Gio Gonzalez SP | MIL 34% 38% 4% $1
Ross Stripling SP | LAD 38% 40% 2% $1
Seth Lugo RP | NYM 42% 45% 3% $1
Zach Eflin SP | PHI 43% 45% 2% $1
Alex Young SP | ARI 45% 56% 11% $6
Nathan Eovaldi SP | BOS 45% 52% 7% $2
Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA 46% 49% 3% $0
Merrill Kelly SP | ARI 47% 54% 7% $3
Chase Anderson SP | MIL 47% 50% 3% $0
Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW 48% 56% 8% $4
Martin Perez SP | MIN 50% 55% 5% $2
  • Johnny Cueto: He’s back and threw five shutout innings. His fastball sat at 91.3 mph which is at his preinjury level. I am a little worried he posted just a 6% SwStr% on the game.
  • Alex Young: Young finally pushed his ownership over the 50% mark. He’s been one of the few decent starting options on the waiver wire.
  • Michael Wacha: I noticed while going over the Vegas lines, Michael Wacha had stepped up his game in the second half with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP.
  • Nathan Eovaldi: Why? Let me look. A two-step against the Giants and at the Rays. It’s tough to trust a 5.00 to 5.50 ERA talent pitcher.

Closer Rankings (Saves focused)

  1. Seth Lugo
  2. Nick Wittgren
  3. James Karinchak
  4. Trevor May
  5. Will Harris
  6. Chad Green
  7. Jairo Díaz
  8. Seung-Hwan Oh
  9. Yusmeiro Petit
  10. Arodys Vizcaíno
Week 25 FAAB Bids in 2019 NFBC Main Event
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Gavin Lux $11 35
Kyle Gibson $9 9
Zach Eflin $8 5
Johnny Cueto $8 5
Robinson Cano $7 9
Rich Hill $6 23
Brandon Nimmo $6 10
Dylan Moore $6 23
Tyler Glasnow $6 14
Justus Sheffield $5 17
Patrick Sandoval $5 6
Raimel Tapia $5 6
Seth Brown $5 6
Adam Haseley $4 5
Ross Stripling $4 8
Brendan McKay $4 14
Jairo Diaz $4 8
Joey Wendle $3 11
Dawel Lugo $3 9
Josh James $3 6
Harold Castro $3 5
Drew Smyly $3 5
Josh Rojas $2 17
Mauricio Dubon $2 10
Robert Dugger $2 13
Austin Pruitt $2 6
Matt Beaty $2 8
Tyler Beede $2 5
Garrett Hampson $2 5
Tyler Mahle $2 13
Dereck Rodriguez $2 10
Phillip Ervin $2 5
Ben Zobrist $2 10
Anthony Kay $1 7
Austin Voth $1 5
Julio Urias $1 6
Austin Hedges $1 6

 

Week 26 FAAB Bids in 2018 NFBC Main Event
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Yairo Munoz $16 6
Ross Stripling $16 5
Sandy Alcantara $14 12
Daniel Mengden $14 7
Brandon Lowe $13 6
Terrance Gore $11 9
Jose Fernandez $10 11
Yoshihisa Hirano $10 21
Ryan Borucki $10 12
Delino DeShields $9 5
Erick Fedde $7 24
Ty Buttrey $7 20
Jose Alvarado $6 9
Chris Stratton $6 6
Ji-Man Choi $5 14
Willians Astudillo $5 19
Sean Reid-Foley $5 9
Joe Ross $5 10
Steve Cishek $4 10
Cody Reed $4 7
Nate Jones $4 6
Jorge Bonifacio $4 6
Tyler Skaggs $3 5
Brett Anderson $3 6
Jason Vargas $3 7
Daniel Norris $3 8
Christin Stewart $3 10
Jake Bauers $3 7
Wilmer Difo $3 6
Jake Cave $2 7
Aaron Altherr $2 5
Joe Mauer $1 5
Robbie Erlin $1 7
Victor Caratini $1 9

 


Reverse Engineering the Sharks (9/13/19)

I’m back for more diving into how the Vegas betting odds on MLB games can help fantasy owners find any new information. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through articles find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Fantasy usable information.

Game 1 (Monday): Brewers at Marlins
Favorite: Brewers
Vegas Breakeven % (Brewers): 68.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 58.4%

There are several items which could be making the Marlins look worse. Rober Duggar’s projected ERA was near 5.00 but his in-season FIP and xFIP were closer to 6.00. Additionally, the Marlins bullpen ERA is a half run higher than the Brewers.
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AL Lineup Analysis (9/12/19)

Angels

Astros


Thursday Streaming Starters (9/12/19)

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yes

Dinelson Lamet vs CHC (24%): While he’s facing the Darvish-led Cubs, the matchup doesn’t scare me one bit. Lamet has a 11.7 K/9 and an under 4.00 with ERA estimators to match. Maybe the next two pitchers listed here might have a better chance for a win but Lamet has the best overall package.

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Reverse Engineering the Sharks: Intro

Gambling and baseball go way back. Everyone, casinos and betters, look to gain an edge with the hope of free money. Today, I’m starting a series diving into the lines with the hope of finding which information, fantasy or otherwise, can be extracted from the sharks and books using the FanGraphs win rate as a baseline.

To start the study, I used the game projections available here at FanGraphs and the historic Vegas line. While the FanGraphs projections were right more times than wrong, there was a systematic error I quickly found. The home-field advantage was set to 8%. The home field teams were expected to win 54% of the time and lose 46% (math!) for the 8% spread. I looked back at the league-wide home-field advantage over the past dozen season and found a smaller margin.
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Tuesday Streaming Starters (9/9/19)

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Tanner Roark (31%) at HOU: I don’t love the game being at Houston but he just goes against Wade Miley. He strikes out batters. Doesn’t walk many. He’s got a good team behind him. Sure why not.

Mitch Keller (7%) at SF: I know he has an 8.18 ERA, but his ERA estimators are between 3.75 to 4.00. A .469 BABIP is dragging him down but it’s tough to pass on the 12.0 K/9.

Partial Category Contribution

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the FAAB results from the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: TMahle: 31
STurnbull: 31
AWojciechowski: 31
AToro: 26
MJoyce: 16
DMoore: 14
PErvin: 14
APruitt: 12
TFrance: 0
ZCollins: 0
JWendle: 0
HNeris: 0

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: JLyles: 70
PSandoval: 38
AMondesi: 34
GCooper: 27
KGiles: 12
BZobrist: 10
SMurphy: 7
AWojciechowski: 3
TLocastro: 1
VCaratini: 0
JSheffield: 0
JCave: 0
AMunoz: 0
TClippard: 0

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Sunday Streaming Starters (9/8/19)

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Adrian Houser vs CHC (21%): A strikeout rate over 9 K/9. A walk rate near 3.0. A groundball rate at 54%. A 3.45 ERA. ERA estimators at or under 4.00. What else is fantasy owner hoping for?

Anthony DeSclafani vs ARI (28%): I wish the start was on the road since he’s a little more home run prone at home (1.8 HR/9 vs 1.6 HR/9). Considering the suspect talents under 50% owned, he’s a fine option.
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