Author Archive

Early Projections: Hitting Counting & Rate Stats

In my last article, I focused on the early-season projection accuracy of hitter playing time. Today, the rest of the standard 5×5 Roto hitting stats finally take center stage. Besides the counting stats, I turn each of them into rate stats to help determine projection accuracy. After completing the analysis, three options stick out.

As a reminder, here are the projections I used and some background on the analysis.

Projections

  • Steamer (FanGraphs)
  • ZIPS
  • DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
  • The Bat
  • The Bat X
  • Davenport
  • ATC (FanGraphs)
  • Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
  • Masterball (Todd Zola)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
  • RotoWire
  • CBS
  • Razzball (Steamer)
  • Paywall #1

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitter in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in TGFBI). Generally, all the players were projected with the following exceptions. Rotowire and Pods didn’t have a Josh Rojas projection while Pods also didn’t have projections for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Mike Brosseau. Additionally, CBS was missing several projections. I am blamed for part of it because I forgot to pull designated hitters and they didn’t project as many outfielders. Finally, I just removed the projection for Yasiel Puig. Read the rest of this entry »


Projection Accuracy: Early March Plate Appearances

I’ve always wanted to do a projection analysis, especially at different time points. I had it started in 2020 and everything fell apart with the shortened season. I’m starting off simply today by looking at at-bat projections from March 1st with the Wisdom of the Crowds prevailing.

The reason I chose March 1st was that The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) started drafted that day. I pulled all 14 projections that morning. I contacted the paid providers and all but one agreed to have their name associated with the results. They are:

Projections

  • Steamer (FanGraphs)
  • ZIPS
  • DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
  • The Bat
  • The Bat X
  • Davenport
  • ATC (FanGraphs)
  • Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
  • Masterball (Todd Zola)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
  • RotoWire
  • CBS
  • Razzball (Steamer)
  • Paywall #1

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (10/13/21)

American League

Angels

• The six-man rotation is staying with Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez in the rotation.

The Angels are expected to use a six-man rotation next year with Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez essentially locks to be part of it.

For those in early season draft-and-holds and best balls, Sandoval and Suarez are reasonable mid to late-round options. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (10/8/21)

American League

Blue Jays

Nate Pearson pitched with a hernia this year and he’s still being considered as a starting pitching option.

Former No. 1 prospect Nate Pearson is meeting with a doctor today to assess whether he’ll need a procedure to address a sports hernia he pitched through in 2021, though Atkins said the big right-hander felt strong physically as the season ended. Atkins also said that he envisioned an “extended outing, closer to a starter look” for Pearson in ’22.

“We have to factor in workload, factor in development and doing what’s best for him,” Atkins said. “It’s just too hard to say exactly what it will look like, but on the spectrum of things, I hope it looks a lot more like a starter than a reliever, but we’ll be open to all roles and all ways to have him help us win.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Help Needed: Hitters Who Played Through a 2021 Injury

With the season just over, I’d like some help collecting information on the hitters who played through a 2021 injury. First, I’m not looking for those who may have struggled because of COVID-19 complications but played through a physical injury.

The information can help fantasy managers help point to why a hitter may have struggled when they begin their 2022. Also, my research has shown that these hitters see a production decline that can be incorporated into projections. It’s one offseason data point to have available going forward. Read the rest of this entry »


Game 162 Chat

2:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome.

2:02
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll start with the BOS-WAS game (I want to see Sale pitch), but will personally move to any game that is close.

2:02
Brian: Lets go Toronto and Seattle. Losses for Bos and NYY mean more baseball. I am on team MORE BASEBALL!!!

2:02
Matt: Last day of H2H championship, need Ks and protecting WHIP. Start which of the following? Sale @ WAS, Wacha @ NYY, Sanmartin @ PIT?

2:02
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s Sale, then Sanmartin, with Wacha dead last

2:02
Ryan: Thanks for being a great host Jeff

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (10/1/21)

American League

Angels

Matt Thaiss is moving back to catcher.

Maddon reiterated Thursday that the organization views Thaiss as a catcher in the long term. He threw out 21 percent of 28 would-be base stealers this season, and registered five passed balls in 461 1/3 innings behind the plate.

He’s currently working with Angels catching coach Jose Molina, and Maddon said the reports back have been positive. Thaiss didn’t single out any one thing he needed to improve, but said he’s worked on just being able to handle the duties the position requires in a competitive game.

He might be a nice draft-and-hold dart in the later rounds. I could see him being the backup. Read the rest of this entry »


Batting Average Variation & the Waiver Wire

Yesterday, I wrote about the replacement level hitters in the NFBC 12-team Online Championship (OC) and the 15-team Main Event (ME). In the comments, Joe Wilkey asked:

There are a couple of good questions here, so it’s time to start working through them. I’ll start with “Is batting average unpredictable?” Yes, with any given player’s actual range being unacceptable for a fantasy manager. Looking back at Steamer Projections (2010 Steamer to 2021), I found the standard deviation for the difference between the projected and actual batting average. Read the rest of this entry »


Replacement Player Analysis Using Adds & Drops

In most weekly leagues, the ability to add and drop players is gone for this season. Since there are no more moves, I’m going to analyze the most added and dropped players in NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship with the main goal to create a composite replacement-level player.

For reference, the Online Championship (OC) leagues have 12 teams while the Main Event (ME) has 15. Both of the leagues require 23 starters each week with 7 bench spots (no IL spots). At all times, 360 players will be rostered in an Online league and 450 in a Main Event league. The reason I decided on the two NFBC formats were:

  • The data is freely available.
  • The information is from several leagues (43 Main Events, 199 Online Championships) with the same ruleset.
  • The leagues remain competitive longer since there is decent money on the line.
  • With two formats (12-team and 15-team), a comparison can be done on the different player pools.

I know at times we may seem a little NFBC centric here at Rotographs. Now, if some other platform had the ability to select a league type and make available all the adds and drops, I’d use them. The NFBC is the only platform that offers this service. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone to the season’s possible final chat.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I may do one during the Sunday games next weekend, but the main side will host one if any of the races aren’t decided

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are all the FAAB bids this week from Tout Wars

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:32
Guest: Any idea if satellite entry winners of TGFBI get to return the following season if they win their individual league in the real thing? Asking for a friend

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, but you might need to ask Justin Mason

Read the rest of this entry »