Author Archive

Top-250 Hitter Rankings & Comparison

It’s time to really get for the 2019 fantasy season and start and release out a set of hitter rankings to nitpick. In all fairness, some of the following projections need to be blown up. Normally, I just average several projections and use them for my fantasy values with great success. With a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, I usually make sure one extreme value, high or low, doesn’t dominate my decision.

Some people get on me for just following these projections. Generally, I do follow them but just as a starting point. As I’ve shown this last week, I add in my own adjustments as I see fit into the baseline values. While Steamer has been out for a few months, other projections are now becoming available. Today, I just wanted to compare them to see who are some of the more divisive players.

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Projection Adjustment: Tucker, Goodrum, Stewart, Ahmed, & Hays

My last few articles have been deep dives on hitters who I felt may need their projection adjusted. Today, I’m going through the last few. Remember, this analysis is focused on the player’s talent projection changing and not on playing time.

Kyle Tucker (220nd in NFBC ADP)

I knew Tucker would make this list before the list ever existed. The 22-year-old flew through the minors and just destroyed AAA with a .332/.400/.590 triple slash line last season. Once he got the majors, the results stunk with him hitting .141/.236 /.203 in just 72 plate appearances.

And now the xStats come to his rescue since he was extremely unlucky with his batted balls. Here are his various actual and expected values.

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Projection Adjustment: Dejong, Lauereano, Winker, & Dickerson

A few days ago, I did a deep dive on several hitters I felt that I needed to personally adjust their projection. Today, I’m going through a few more. This analysis is focused on the player’s talent profile changing and not on playing time.

Paul DeJong (NFBC ADP of 191st)

The reason Dejong popped up on my radar was his broken hand from mid-May to early July. It seems like he may have returned a little too early and his results suffered.

Month: OPS
Apr: .866
May: .728
June: DNP
July: .589
Aug: .726
Sep: .777

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Projection Adjustment: Turner, Profar, Rosario, & Renfroe

Since the end of the regular season, I’ve been helping various publications write player previews for the upcoming season. During the process, I kept a list of hitters who I felt there may be reasons to adjust their talent projections. I’ve found that even when I normally deep dive into hitters, I come up close to the standard projection and wasted my time. I found I’m better off focusing my effort on pitchers. I can’t afford to ignore hitters, though. I’m now going to analyze these few in detail over a series of articles to see if their projection holds up or do I need to adjust it.

For some of the hitters, the reason behind the talent change (e.g. injury) is obvious. For others, I don’t remember the exact reason. Oops. I’m going to start working my way through them starting with the ones with the highest ADP.

Note: I’m only dealing with the player’s talent. Projecting playing time is an entire separate fiasco.

Justin Turner (109th in NFBC ADP)

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On The Move: Robertson, Britton, Broxton, & Others

There wasn’t a ton of moves with fantasy implications over the weekend but there was enough to lump together some. I’m still at the point that no major team breakdowns can really start with the two big bats still available. Anyways, here is a breakdown of the moves:

Phillies sign David Robertson

The 33-year-old righty immediately joins the Phillies closer discussion for the simple reason he’s projected to be the best bullpen arm. Steamer has him for a 3.22 ERA with Seranthony Dominguez next at 3.39 and previous closer Hector Neris at 3.62.

The Phillies front office would prefer Robertson to close instead of the other two to save money. The team is already on the hook for his $23 million dollar contract, so his price is set. The more Saves the pre-arbitration arms get, the higher their arbitration contracts will cost.

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Yusei Kikuchi’s Fantasy Value with Projections

When Yusei Kikuchi was posted in early December, he had only a month to sign with a team. For this reason, his signing decision was going to fall over the holidays and Seattle broke the news right before the end of the year. Because of the unique timing, he didn’t get a ton of press, but owners should be aware that he’s a decent starter and not to be ignored on draft day.

First off, the other Jeff beat me to writing about the 27-year-old lefty. Twice to be exact. Once before the signing and once after.
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The Process: Thinking One Layer Deeper

Now that we’ve hit the holidays and fantasy owners may be staring at a couple of four-day weekends so it might be time to cozy up with your favorite e-reader and bang out the 200+ pages of The Process. As memorable and life-altering as bowl games sponsored by credit unions, auto parts stores, and baked cheese crackers can be, this is a great time of year to take on such a project.

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Trade Analysis: Diaz & Bauers

The Indians, Rays and to everyone’s surprise, Mariners made a trade last week with the following final results:

For my analysis, I’m going to focus on just Diaz and Bauers. Both have shown great potential but their minor league results have not yet translated to the majors.

Yandy Diaz (NFBC ADP Rank: 475)

With Jason Kipnis and his $17M contract likely to play second and Jose Ramirez at third, Diaz wasn’t guaranteed to play in Clevland. He is now in Tampa.

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Late-Round Bargains: ADP 271 to 350

A few days ago, I examined some later round NFBC picks trying to find players I prefer over others. I did rank 201 to 270. Today, I’ll continue the search from rank 271 to 350 with a later surprise.

Note: I don’t like the starters after Urias (#281) but many hitters are still interesting. If I’m in a deeper league, I may try to stock up on pitching before I get into this section of the draft.

271: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
272: Michael Wacha
273: Teoscar Hernandez
274: A.J. Minter
275: Jed Lowrie
276: Marco Gonzales
277: Trevor May
278: Drew Steckenrider
279: Adam Jones
280: Daniel Palka

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Angels Corner Infield: Bour, Ohtani, & Pujols

On Wednesday, the Angels signed Justin Bour to a one-year deal. After a mini-breakout in 2017 when he hit .289 with 25 homers, his batting average dropped to .227 with only 20 home runs in more plate appearances last season. This signing made perfect sense for the Angels who will have Shohei Ohtani rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and Albert Pujols being a member of the walking dead. Overall, this move just about killed what little value any fantasy the three had in weekly leagues but could make them sleepers in daily lineup leagues.

The biggest key is to understand the risk behind each player and let’s start off with the one who has the most questions surrounding him, Ohtani. He’s also considered a safe pick by some analysts. According to reports, he should be able to contribute sooner than the normal nine to 10 months timeline for most hitters returning from the surgery because he’ll only DH.

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