Author Archive

Generating Weak Contact: Bringing It All Together

After more than two days of pouring over pitcher batted ball data, I better write something before I am fired. In the end, I found nothing groundbreaking. Popups and groundballs good… everything else (i.e. line drives and flyballs) is bad. The change I’d recommend going forward is to move to a more granular grading of batted to bins, like barrels, based on outcomes. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (9/21/21)

American League

Blue Jays

• Hang in there with this story about Robbie Ray. First, I thought he might be worth taking a chance because his velocity was up in Spring Training

With an ADP of 294, I thought why not roster him. If things turn south, I could let him go.

In his first two starts, he posted an 8.1 BB/9 leading to a 1.60 WHIP. I couldn’t stand the walks and dropped him for … Josh Fleming.

Oopsie. This move probably cost a few hundred dollars. Rostering the league’s likely Cy Young winner would have been helpful. The deal is that I should have had a little more patience since Ray missed some time with a bruised elbow and it took a while to heal.

It took one start in spring training for Ray to feel like the work he put in over the winter would pay off. When his season began — albeit slightly delayed after he bruised his elbow after a fall — he felt confident about where he was. As the season has progressed, it has only gotten better.

So I’ve come up with a set of simple rules to handle desirable players coming back from injuries.

  1. Assume they are not 100% and give them some time to heal.
  2. If necessary, bench them.
  3. Look for improvement over the next couple of weeks. If none, then cut. One option is that there may be some improvement but not enough to start.

It will always be more of art than a science threading that line from having the patience to hold on too long to an injured and/or underperforming player. For myself, I need to get the hurt ones a little more time. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Hello everyone

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the Tout Wars FAAB results from the 15 team leagues

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: CStratton Pit 80   SBieber Cle 40   GTorres NYY 56   MFulmer Det 16   EFedde Was 56   LGarcia CWS 16   YHernandez Tex 12   DPeters Pit 10

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: and from the other

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: NGordon Min 7   CCulberson Tex 4   YTsutsugo Pit 10   RGonzalez CWS 10   CStratton Pit 15   YHernandez Tex 10   JRogers Was 33   LDiaz Mia 3   TyAnderson Sea 3   DLeone SF 11   DPeters Pit 4   EFedde Was 3   PBlackburn Oak 0   MManning Det 0

7:34
Ohtani the Musical!: Random AL reliever who might back into a save or two over the last two weeks?

Read the rest of this entry »


Waiver Wire Report (Week 25)

The following recommendations are based on just winning next week. Nothing matters at this point so don’t be afraid to release any “stars” if they don’t help you win. It could mean all closers for a pitching staff. Or dropping all closers. Putting in all sluggers (e.g. DJ Peters and Jesus Sanchez). There are no weeks like but it’s time to bring home some trophies and cash.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (9/17/21)

American League

Angels

Luis Rengifo (.188/.232/.325 with 5 HR in 127 PA) has started five straight games at shortstop.

Brandon Marsh (.706 OPS) moved up to leadoff after a hot week (.878 OPS). Read the rest of this entry »


Weak Contact: Mixing Speeds & Horizontal Movement

I’ve been trying to get to the root cause of how much can a pitcher limit hard contact. I’ve had some hits and misses, but today I’ll finish going over the possible inputs.

I’ve already investigated the groundball/flyball issue and generate weak contact when hitters make contact with pitches out of the strike zone in this series and previously looked into two-strike counts and found nothing. Here are the five possible causes.

  • After contact, the ball coming off the top (popup) or bottom (groundball) of the bat.
  • The batter chases a pitch out of the strike zone and makes a less than full-effort swing.
  • The batter is taken off guard by the pitch’s speed (fast or slow) and can’t make a full-effort swing.
  • The batter is deceived by the pitch’s horizontal movement and makes contact off the end or handle of the bat (h/t to Kenny Butrym).
  • With two strikes, the batter shortens up his swing just hoping to put the ball into play.

So it’s time to finish the list to see if changing speeds and horizontal movement help limit hard contact.

Read the rest of this entry »


Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 24)

The dropped players make up a shortlist this week as the season winds down. Lots of the moves are from the fantasy managers playing the weekly short game and not caring about the long-term production. They are the right moves with just three weeks left in the season.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone. We’ll see how long we can go tonight as numbers are way down

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Those were the few bids in the two Tout Wars leagues

7:32
Oddball Herrera: Happ just on a hot streak or does this change your keeper eval for him?

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I thought this is how he’d perform

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll hook me back in next season.

Read the rest of this entry »


Waiver Wire Report (Week 24)

Like the last couple of weeks, this week is again low on usable hitters, but there are plenty of one-start options on the wire.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (9/10/21)

American League

Angels

Luis Rengifo has started three of the last four games at shortstop. He is hitting .250/.308/.500 since being recalled.

Jo Adell is up to batting fifth after hitting .297/.366/.568 with 3 HR and 1 SB over the last two weeks.

Astros

• In the six games since Chas McCormick (.767 OPS) has been off the IL, he’s started in two games while Jake Meyers (.816 OPS) has only started in three games. Read the rest of this entry »