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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay. I’m working out some details on a league

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are this week’s FAAB bids in the two ToutWars15-team mixed.

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:35
roeVSwadeboggs: so are we buying weaver? he did have that one good season before getting hurt. and now he’s done well in two starts. i feel like there’s going to be a bank run on him. are we buying, and if so, how much are we spending?

7:36
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not interested at all but I missed the start to see if he did anything different

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Waiver Wire Targets: Week 2

Besides Tyler Naquin, no widely available players are generating the buzz for 10% or higher bids. There could be some players who slipped through the cracks last week like Nate Lowe who could go for high in a single league. Overall, it’s a week to save a little money and make some calculated adds.

In the following article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (4/9/21)

Going off the lineups isn’t ideal with so few games, but a few useful pieces of information can be found.

American League

Angels

• The expected first base mess exists with Albert Pujols starting three games at first (one at DH) and Jared Walsh the other four. Walsh did start one game in right field.

David Fletcher has led off every game.

Astros

Yordan Alvarez (.333/.364/.667) has moved up from batting sixth to fourth. Kyle Tucker (.200/.212/.533) has moved down.

Yuli Gurriel (.287/.326/.469) hit second with Michael Brantley out.
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Mining the News (4/7/21)

American League

Athletics

A.J. Puk will only work out of the bullpen.

Puk, 25, will work out of the bullpen, providing aid to an exhausted relief corps that worked 16 2/3 innings over the last four days against Houston. The situation was so dire that the A’s even had to call upon rookie outfielder Ka’ai Tom to pitch the ninth inning on Sunday.

I am just not sure if Puk will end up being fantasy relevant this season.

Indians

Andrés Giménez is expected to be the full-time shortstop

“Giménez, he’ll be right back in there,” Francona said. “I just want to keep Amed in the lineup today. We’ll be doing some mixing and matching. Amed’s gonna move back and forth a little bit. He’s not just a platoon player, for sure. We’ll make sure we keep everybody to a point where they can be productive.”

… while Amed Rosorio is easing into his outfield role.

If the team is expecting to play Giménez regularly, that means Rosario’s time in center field could be coming soon.

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Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 1)

It’s the first full FAAB period for the NFBC Main event and it’s time to see who owners have soured on. Two trends I saw were managers dumping a ton of injured or demoted players. Also, bullpen arms were dropped for as situations clear up.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.

Hitters

JaCoby Jones (9): Started two games over the weekend and hit ninth. He might end up being the replacement level outfielder when managers are desperate.

Kevin Kiermaier (9): This drop is a little odd. He started two of the three games at an NL park (no DH) batting fifth and sixth. With steals at such a premium, it’s tough to ignore them and 15 HR potential. I know he may struggle with batting average, but what else is expected from the waiver wire.

Rougned Odor (9): Not on the major league club.

Tim Locastro (9): With Kole Calhoun out, it looks like Locastro is on the short side of a platoon with Pavin Smith.

Willie Calhoun (9): He’s out for at least another week, likely longer. I’m sure he’ll get hot at some point and his demand will rise.

Amed Rosario (8): Only one start over the weekend at shortstop. He’s not playing in the outfield with Jordan Luplow and Ben Gamel in a center field platoon.

Luis Urías (8): This drop was unexpected. Urias started two games and has a respectable .708 OPS. If an manager saw enough to draft him, why drop him now?

Roman Quinn (8): He’s in a center field platoon with Adam Haseley.

Ryan Jeffers (8): As I write this, he’s started two of four games. If he’s hitting by the end of the week, managers with a disappointing catcher will be looking to add him.

Yoshi Tsutsugo (8): He led off the first two games, but isn’t hitting so far (.200 OPS). Also, he will be a drag on a team’s batting average (~.230 AVG projection).

Austin Barnes (7): Another move I don’t 100% understand. Maybe managers were just hoping for two games in Colorado, but the catcher pool is so shallow, he’s a must-add for someone in 15-team mixers.

Jo Adell (7): Nearly impossible to roster while waiting for a possible callup.

Tommy La Stella (7): Sat twice against a left-handed starter with the DH available (at Seattle).

Victor Reyes (7): It has been known that he’ll be on the short side of a platoon. Expected drop.

José Iglesias (6): Full-time defense only middle infielder. He’s going to be added and dropped a ton.

Miguel Cabrera (6): I love how people are flocking to Yermin Mercedes, when a comparable player is available on the waiver wire.

Scott Kingery (6): Demoted in order to learn how to hit.

Wilmer Flores (6): Started against two lefties with a .889 OPS so far this season. His playing time this week will determine his demand.

Starters

Chris Sale (7): Not enough roster spots to hold him for three more months. Ed. note: I truly don’t understand why he was even drafted. Sure, he’s a big name, but he was never going to be available early enough to merit holding him.

Logan Gilbert (7): The highly touted prospect has been chopped.

Luke Weaver (7): Fantasy managers weren’t ready to stomach a start in Colorado.

Caleb Smith (6): One of the teams I co-manage made one of these cuts. Someone had to go and with the bad start (three runs in three innings with his velocity down 1.4 mph). I expect he’ll get added once he has an easy matchup.

Joey Lucchesi (6): He was in line for two starts this week, but the Nationals positive COVID-19 cases messed up the schedule.

Spencer Howard (6): Demoted to the minors.

Relievers

Enoli Paredes (9): I know some people considered him Pressley’s backup in Houston, but he’s not worth rostering with other options.

José Alvarado (9): Hector Neris got the closer’s label.

Tanner Rainey (9): While nothing has happened to Rainey, backup closers are this week’s dispensable asset.

Keone Kela (8): Mark Melancon seems to be the closer in San Diego.

Randy Dobnak (8): Lost out on a starting role and his bullpen role is undetermined.

Tanner Scott (8): Soft-tossing Cesar Valdez (0.00 ERA, 5.31 xFIP) has the Orioles first two Saves.

Tony Gonsolin (7): Out for a while with shoulder inflammation.

Joakim Soria (6): This move seems a little reactionary. I’d wait at least a week to find out the full extent of his calf injury caused by covering first base.

Players Dropped in the NFBC Main Event
Name Drops
Rafael Dolis 34
Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 24
Kyle Gibson 24
Nick Ahmed 22
Chad Green 21
Chris Archer 21
A.J. Puk 19
Garrett Richards 19
Blake Treinen 17
Daulton Jefferies 17
Chris Martin 16
Rich Hill 16
Ronald Guzman 15
Kohei Arihara 14
Matt Bush 14
Trevor May 14
Brandon Workman 13
Kyle Crick 13
Stefan Crichton 13
Stephen Piscotty 13
Archie Bradley 12
David Bote 12
Deivi Garcia 12
Mitch Keller 12
Nick Wittgren 12
Brent Suter 11
Cristian Pache 11
Ross Stripling 11
Merrill Kelly 켈리 10
Mike Brosseau 10
Odubel Herrera 10
Spencer Turnbull 10
Enoli Paredes 9
JaCoby Jones 9
Jose Alvarado 9
Kevin Kiermaier 9
Rougned Odor 9
Tanner Rainey 9
Tim Locastro 9
Willie Calhoun 9
Amed Rosario 8
Keone Kela 8
Luis Urias 8
Randy Dobnak 8
Roman Quinn 8
Ryan Jeffers 8
Tanner Scott 8
Yoshi Tsutsugo 8
Austin Barnes 7
Chris Sale 7
Jo Adell 7
Logan Gilbert 7
Luke Weaver 7
Tommy La Stella 7
Tony Gonsolin 7
Victor Reyes 7
Caleb Smith 6
Joakim Soria 6
Joey Lucchesi 6
Jose Iglesias 6
Miguel Cabrera 6
Scott Kingery 6
Spencer Howard 6
Wilmer Flores 6
Austin Slater 5
Chad Kuhl 5
Daulton Varsho 5
David Peterson 5
David Price 5
Elieser Hernandez 5
Garrett Crochet 5
J.B. Bukauskas 5
Jose Cisnero 5
Josh Staumont 5
Matt Moore 5
Michael Lorenzen 5
Mike Foltynewicz 5
Mitch Moreland 5

Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: The focus of the chat will be FAAB and Waiver Wire questions. If I get through them, I’ll answer other questions.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bits from the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues from 30 minutes ago.

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:33
KK: Hmmm…Crichton or Ginkel or someone else in AZ (Soria update?) Thx.

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: What a mess. Seems like Grinkel but I’d hedge with all three

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Waiver Wire Targets: Week 1

There are many different available player types available this week from prospects to closers to decent two-start pitchers to old boring vets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market focuses its resources to balance needs and wants.  Some teams need to add a couple of closers while others are dealing with hitters who are day-to-day. Others might have several Nats on their team and could be losing one or more to the IL. It’s going to be exhausting but diligent FAAB prep this weekend.

In the following article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

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Actionable Items From Opening Day

1. Injuries

Keep track of these banged-up guys over the next couple of days to see if replacements will need to be rostered.

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Adds and Drops in the NFBC Main Event

I’m going to continue my analysis of NFBC Main Event drops, but this first week will be a one-off. The NFBC ran its first FAAB bids last night but not all the leagues have drafted (I have my final one tonight), so the adds and drops not have the normal diversity and depth. Some of the information is still useful. With the limited number of teams and with the drafts so close to the season’s will dive into some of the players on the move (minimum three moves).

Note: I use the NFBC Main Event movement because it’s a decent number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1700 per team.
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Spring Training Groundball Changers

Blah, blah, some intro stuff on some guy that goes on too long. And here are the hitters who might be changing their launch angle (i.e. groundball rate).

Using Spring Training Ground Outs divided by Airball Outs (GO/AO), some possible swing plane changes might already be detectable. To find possible change, I found the hitters who had a combined 50% GB% and at least 300 PA from 2019 to 2020. Then, I removed those with fewer than 30 spring plate appearances and got the GO/AO values for the rest. Next, I converted the GO/AO to groundball rate (GB%) using the formula in this article. Finally, I just calculated the greatest differences and here are the results.

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