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Why would you test Kyle?

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Afternoon updates:

• Senga coming off the IL and Scott headed on it (hip). Don’t start Senga until we see something and probably 2-3 good starts worth of that “something”
• Rasmussen isn’t risk-free at LAD but he’s just too good for me to be concerned by his matchups
• Commenter TJ brought up some King concerns for 10-teamers and it’s not completely unfounded with a 6.45 ERA/1.39 WHIP in his L4 starts but I’m not totally off him based on this run. ATH and WAS got to him the most, allowing 9 ER in 9.3 IP. ATH beat him straight up, but 4 of the 5 at WAS came in the 7th inning of what had been a solid start to that point (outside of the meager 2 Ks). He went 6 IP/4 ER v. NYM which falls shy of a QS but certainly isn’t a terrible outing. And then his most recent was 6.7 IP/3 ER v. CIN. Despite the ERA, I love that he’s gone 6+ in 3 of the 4. I will concede he’s not a must-start in 10s given the lighter skills (12% K-BB) compared to his recent years and a .246 BABIP that is rife for some more regression, but he remains startable against an OK Cardinals lineup. I do think 10-team managers have to think deeply about the ATL/LAD 2-step he’s set up for next week as they could get that BABIP regression going in earnest. Coming back around on this to say I’m convinced to drop King a bit after another “bleh” outing (4.3 IP/3 ER/8 BR/1 K)… in fact “bleh” is taking him off the hook a bit, it was bad. He’ll now be in the 1-2x range depending on matchup and that 2-step next week now becomes a potential cut point for 10-teamers since I can’t imagine you’d want to use it. Good call, TJ! 
• Holmes is more of a Wins chase and with SFG’s recent offensive surge, I downgraded him to 1-x.
• I want to love Perkins and even picked him up in my Main Event league on June 7th but it’s been tough to confidently start him. I didn’t even consider Vegas last week and then labored on this week’s 2-step — both at home — before eventually slotting him in. I’d likely skip this in daily moves leagues before jumping in this weekend against LAA.

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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At this stage of the season, the impact of luck, or lack thereof, starts to take form and become a meaningful predictor for the rest of the year.

But BABIP can be a noisy stat in isolation. I wanted to identify which hitters were getting lucky when putting balls in play, but also wanted to add a layer that allows us to assess that luck relative to fantasy value and overall offensive production.

The idea for this piece actually came from a curiosity around one specific hitter, which I will come to later, but it is a useful exercise to get a broader sense of the BABIP landscape as we enter the summer months.

So which hitters are potentially providing an unsustainable output, and which could be worth buying low on or holding onto?

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I fought the law and the law won. And that law is the law of starting pitcher attrition. To make up for losing starters to season-ending injuries and the regression monster, turn to IL stashes.

This article won’t be for all of you, or at least the advice won’t be universally applicable. For those of you with limited IL room, or limited IL slots, this may not be as actionable today. But for most of these pitchers, you can likely hold off a few weeks before others in your league are ready to pull the trigger. 

But if you do have room to hold onto a player with a little upside, you are unlikely to be outbid in FAAB at this point. That would be the biggest value add of bringing on these pitchers now — not having to outbid opposing managers once more news is out. 

I will run through a handful of pitchers worth considering, sticking to blurbs unless a pitcher excites me to the point of digging in a bit deeper. I will focus on players who are rostered in less than half of CBS and Yahoo leagues (sorry Kris Bubic and Logan Henderson). 

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Here is today chat transcript:
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Tim Vizer-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Have you ever looked at art that changed based on the direction you’re viewing it? Or maybe stared at that famous drawing of a duck for 10 minutes, only to have it morph permanently into a rabbit? The notion that one thing can be two or more does a number on our brains sometimes.

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Way to make a good impression:

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Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

I’m headed to Houston to watch the Tigers game and staying overnight so I’m going to load Tuesday’s board now as-is and it’ll run tomorrow night. I’m sure there’ll be changes, but it’ll be easier for me to address those in comments as opposed to finding time to put together the board on the road.

• I was stunned Imanaga went into Coors and dominated like that. He should be able to pull it off again as long as the wind isn’t blowing out 15 mph or something crazy.
• Core skills were better for Melton last time out with 5 K/0 BB in 5 IP, but 4 HRs (all solo) soured the outing a bit. He nabbed the Win, though, and still has sparkling ratios while he figures out the strikeouts and walks.
• This certified Dustin May Skeptic is on the train! He’s finally missing bats with consistency, posting a 3.25 ERA/0.97 WHIP in his L6 with 21% K-BB and 13% SwStr supporting the 28% K rate.
• Few teams have a wider start/sit range based on pitcher handedness than Arizona, sitting 28th vR and earning Ureña a full reco. Meanwhile, they sit 5th vL leaving me starting only the very best southpaws against them.
• A nightmare inning in each of his last 2 have pushed Teng’s ERA more than a full run to 3.71 and it seemed to be inevitable with his elevated walk rate. He skated on an 18% BB rate in his 3 starts before the struggles allowing just 3 ER in 16 IP. DET is hitting better of late, but is walking at a below average clip so they might not be able to take advantage of Teng’s problem.
• Jones had a solid 4-inning outing v. LAD but heading Sacramento is a different story and I’m definitely a bit nervous to run this one. He gets a trip to COL this weekend for the other part of his 2-step so I wouldn’t even necessarily justify this in a weekly setup.
• The PHI offense just keeps stinking so Gusto has some juice to stream.
• Alvarez sank himself at SFG with 5 BB but they could only cash in two of his 10 base runners. I still like plenty of what I’m seeing here and think this could be a successful 2-step (at TBR this wknd).

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