As we move on to the final stages of this fantasy season, one more splits chart could be beneficial for those looking for streaming options in a playoff run. This chart plots xwOBA vs left-handed pitching (LHP) and right-handed pitching (RHP) on each axis, with filter options for which teams to target depending on their split, with the biggest gap differentials also included. This is done using handedness split data since the break, which now has a big enough sample in its own right while capturing recent form that full-season data would dilute. This piece will identify which handedness offenses struggle with and also look at probable starters up until September 19th, for specific matchups for both pitchers and offenses. Bear in mind this is overall offensive production; there will be specific hitters within lineups that may do well against a certain handedness despite the overall offensive struggles, and vice versa.

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OpenCommand, introduced by Doyoung-Tom Kim, is an absolutely incredible open-source dataset that offers a new way to track pitch locations based on target-miss distance, how far a pitch landed from where the pitcher was actually trying to put it, estimated from the catcher’s setup and camera tracking. Without going too much into detail about the workings of OpenCommand, I would highly recommend checking out his work and the great lengths he went to account for camera angles, plate depth, etc.

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Feels like a starting pitcher is hitting the IL every day. Or is that just on my fantasy team? As I scoured the waiver wire for options to just get me some innings, I wanted to try to at least maintain some kind of floor.

When looking at pitchers outside of your top rostered starters, it can be a minefield; these are pitchers not picked up for a reason. The problem that can be prevalent is that these pitchers are susceptible to blow-up innings that quickly crater decent starts into nightmare starts. Often this takes place on the third time through the lineup.

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Induced vertical break (IVB) is a measure of how much vertical movement or ride a fastball has. It can be an important factor in determining the shape of a pitcher’s fastball, and some pitchers are much more reliant on it than others. It can be the difference between six to seven innings and getting pulled after four and a third. As we get to the final weeks of the season, movement and ride on a pitcher’s fastball can begin to degrade after the wear and tear of the season. This piece will look at what kind of pitchers are reliant on IVB for success, which pitchers have been most impacted by the wear and tear of the season, and who is still able to maintain vertical movement in the final stages of the season. Which pitchers’ four-seams actually depend on IVB, and where is that IVB heading right now?

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Building on my piece a couple of weeks ago on the normalization of Z-O, it felt like there was a lot more left on the bone in terms of finding out if permanent changes to a hitter’s approach are possible, and if so, how long does it take for a new baseline to be established? In the first piece, we followed up on a discussion on X between redsoxstats and Eno Sarris, and introduced Z-O as a metric and the stickiness of it as a metric for plate discipline.

It seems to be, in general, once a hitter establishes his baseline, it is difficult to deviate too much away from that level throughout his career. This is due to how inherent a hitter’s approach is at the plate. Hitters have tendencies baked into their profile, and shifting from that is difficult. But this opened up a slew of further questions relating to how baselines are established: is it possible to establish a new baseline? If a hitter improves or declines from this baseline, how are we able to establish a new Z-O baseline (if at all)?

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The tracker is back, running from now until the end of the season, so we can identify which teams have favorable groups of fixtures to stream for fantasy. At this stage of the fantasy season, identifying these stretches of games that have targetable hitters or pitchers could be the difference. I will link here the first iteration of the tracker that I made through the end of August, with a more comprehensive breakdown, but the chart has a tab for both hitters and pitchers.

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The crux of the fantasy season is looming, and decisions need to be made as we push to the playoffs. In one league currently, my shortstop position is in need of a jolt, and with a playoff spot already secured, time is running out to get aggressive and make a move. While Otto Lopez and Colson Montgomery have served me well for the majority of the season, the data is saying an aggressive move is required. Lopez, whose bat was running hot pre-All-Star break, has cooled, and even his .259 xwOBA says the bat isn’t good enough to wait on at this stage of the season. And Montgomery has no luck gap at all, with his results matching his .237 xwOBA.

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The sweeper seems to be a pitch that has taken on a life of its own over the past few seasons. More horizontal movement generated by sacrificing velocity (generally). But maybe it doesn’t have to be that way. With an average velocity a couple ticks below the traditional slider (85-86 mph), a sweeper usually sits at 82 to 83 mph. But it has become a powerful weapon and a popular pitch to add to pitch arsenals for those looking for an added swing-and-miss pitch.

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Discipline at the plate is often a huge driver for success over the course of a season. From a fantasy perspective, it can be difficult to utilize outside of just an overall gauge for a hitter’s success.

I saw an interesting exchange on plate discipline data relating to zone and outside zone swing percentages as an indicator for a potential breakout. A post highlighting patience as the potential reason behind Pete Crow-Armstrong’s MVP-caliber season noted his O-Swing% is down to a career low 34%. Read the rest of this entry »

Following on from looking at those who have managed to increase the velocity on their four-seamer since the start of the season, it is now time to turn to those losing velocity. Some have not been so fortunate. Whether through wear and tear or potential injuries, these pitchers warrant serious monitoring and potential red flags as we move forward.

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