Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 17th, 2026
Thanks for coming out!!
| 1:01 |
: Hey everyone, thanks for coming out!! |
| 1:04 |
: True or false. Nick Kurtz has a case to be labeled the best hitter in baseball? |
| 1:06 |
: Oh he’s gotta be a part of the conversation for sure. Count me among those who had concerns about his K% coming into this year but when you add 8 pts of BB% (and even shave 3 pts of K%), it’s a totally different situation. The power was already covering the Ks to a degree but the OBP is now such a force. I thought the K% would sting more as BABIP regressed, but he’s up to .389!! That’s not just Sacramento, either: .400 Home/.380 Road |
| 1:06 |
: Is it time to move on from Palencia? Elbow inflammation could be a long stint, IL spots are tight, wasn’t getting opps, and in a 4-5 point dogfight for saves (SVs only league). Yates, Webb, Theilbar, Santillan best SVs options on wire.
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
|
| 1:09 |
: Yeah I’m OK moving on from Palencia. Not pitching well enough when healthy to think he’s a must-hold in any capacity |
| 1:09 |
: Two-part question — 10-team AVG/OBP/SLG/H/BB/HR/NSB league. I spent serious draft capital on Austin Riley and Luke Keaschall hoping to lock down 3B and 2B. Instead, I’ve had to burn valuable roster spots chasing production while benching both of them, and IL hits to my SPs have only made it worse. Should I try to package Riley and Keaschall for starting pitching and roll with Royce Lewis, Matt McLain, Antonacci, and Gelof to rotate through 2B/3B (rank)? Also, what FAAB % should I reserve for therapy? |
| 1:11 |
: I like pivoting off them for the options you have, namely Royce Lewis being a huge favorite of mine when healthy (that’s always an unknown that leans light, unfortunately). Probably won’t get a stud in a trade for them, but can likely scare up at least a Team Streamer with some upside. Plus, with OBP mattering, Antonacci gets a nice boost!! (though I guess it’s mitigated by his SLG being so meh) |
| 1:11 |
: Who would you rather have ROS in 12 team mixed with QS instead of W: Lodolo or Jared Jones? |
| 1:15 |
: While pasted again today, I lean Lodolo between the 2 as I think he’s got the better QS upside if he can get things figured out. Just don’t think the Pirates are going to push Jones that much right now |
| 1:15 |
: Konnor Griffin’s elbow. How concerned should we be? |
| 1:18 |
: Definitely some concern, but news has been solid that he could be back before the break. I wouldn’t preemptively move off him anywhere |
| 1:18 |
: Gelof a top 10 2b/2b ROS? |
| 1:22 |
: He can be around there. He’s 9th now and no doubt better than that at home only. Whether he holds the full season top 10 will likely come down to his AVG. He’s putting a big burden on his home AVG (.241 road) and I suspect it’ll give a bit from the .286, but the HR/SB production is enough to keep very desirable. Though I say that with the single worst AVG team constructed in NFBC history, so maybe I need to start paying more attention to it and not slough off the AVG drag that guys like Gelof can be (.225 xBA, if that’s a stat you like) |
| 1:22 |
: How legit is Bryce Eldridge? Is a swap for Ben Brown fairly even? |
| 1:25 |
: I say yes on the trade being fair. Two upstart potential studs for one another. Neither without risk and both with tremendous upside. As for Eldridge specifically, he’s riding high with the .382 BABIP that will likely come down, but I don’t think it craters and his power is legit. SF is a tough park, but not at all impossible, espec. with pop like his. |
| 1:25 |
: How much longer can Wrobleski kept it going? |
| 1:32 |
: Well we’ve started to see the regression starts with 2 Duds (5+ ER outings) and a spiritual Dud at PIT (4.7 IP/4 ER) in his L7 but 4 absolute gems surrounding them still has him with a 2.72 ERA. He was immaculate through the first 6 but we knew these Duds would pop up. His K% is up to 20% in that run, but that shows you how bad it’s been bc 20% still stinks, lol. Barring a real increase in missed bats, I think we’ll see things more in line w/these L7. It does put a lot of pressure on the non-Duds to be damn near perfect but even if those regress into some baseline QS, he’s still ALWAYS a strong W bet. |
| 1:32 |
: Am I too in on these Pale Hose rookies? Somehow I’ve got Antonacci, Braden M and Jacob Gonzalez (and Shultz on my IL) in my AL only OBP league. Do you see them panning out? |
| 1:33 |
: They carry standard rookie risk but I have no problem relying on that group. Much shorter leash w/Gonzalez v. the other two for the rookie doldrums hit, but Ant and Braden are really fun, espec. in OBP as I mentioned earlier re: Ant. |
| 1:33 |
: Is it time to forget the underlying numbers and just start JT Ginn, even in SacTown? I keep sitting him and he keeps doing great. |
| 1:36 |
: Why not just use him as a road-only guy for now? 1.99 ERA/0.79 WHIP on the road; 3.93/1.58 at home. The skills are great on the road, too, so no need to ignore: 20% K-BB! |
| 1:39 |
: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Are you holding Maikel Garcia in 12 team roto provided there’s an adequate replacement? Not much power or SBs this year, now nursing a hand injury that’ll nag RoS. The approach is there, but the results are frustrating |
| 1:44 |
: He’s the kind of guy I’m inclined to hold, but I admit that I can sometimes hold too long in the medium/shallower formats. This is the tough part about AVG-reliant players bc he’s objectively not that far off his numbers but a 20 pt in AVG for our purposes REALLY stings, espec. paired w/the relative power outage. Stepping back, it’s one big year (2024 was SB-only) for a volume accumulator, which isn’t the best profile the shallower you go. I think I might look at potential replacements and be a big more proactive here. Who’s available? |
| 1:44 |
: Got a league mate trying to talk me into what I’m sure is a lousy trade. Keeper (two round inflation) 12 team (where SPs plays like a 10) points league with no K penalty . He wants my James Wood (19 next year) best hitter under league rules, Hunter Goodman (15), Hunter Brown (7) for his Miz (1) best pitcher under league rules, Mookie Betts (no keep), Kyle Tucker (no keep), Liam Hicks (no keep). |
| 1:44 |
: Bad deal right? |
| 1:45 |
: It’s not offensive bc it includes Miz but it’s a full no-go. Just too much to give and in a deal stud-for-stud like Wood-for-Miz, I always prefer the hitter. |
| 1:45 |
: Just a real quick follow up: roughly what do you expect from Lodolo ROS in terms of ERA, WHIP, K? |
| 1:49 |
: Honestly it depends on his health. I wonder if the blister is cropping back up and causing issues. It was NOT a good start today, but he did get into the 5th despite the struggles so they didn’t pull him at the first sign of trouble which is at least somewhat encouraging? But I think he’s a mid 4.00s w/a sub-1.25 WHIP if healthy and could churn out some QS. I’m not thrilled w/anything he’s got going right now, but I don’t think he just lost the ability to miss bats so if/when right, that 10% SwStr should surge. |
| 1:50 |
: I wouldn’t go out chasing him or anything |
| 1:50 |
: Thanks, Paul! I think Keaschall’s trade value might be dead, but thoughts on trying to package Riley with Wrobleski as an offer for Luzardo? K,ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, QS |
| 1:51 |
: Agreed on Keasch. I like this way of trying to upgrade Wrobo. Totally fair offer, espec. if the opposing manager buys into Riley having some upside juice |
| 1:51 |
: Lodolo looks sooo, sooo baaaad. And his slouching posture and dejected demeanor have me relieved that I don’t have him on any of my rosters. Wooo! Hooo! |
| 1:52 |
: I didn’t get to see him today, but I can imagine it’s bc he knows he’s better than this. Hopefully he can work his way through it. |
| 1:52 |
: Your thoughts on stashing DJ Herz? |
| 1:52 |
: League size? |
| 1:52 |
: I just traded Vlad and Louis Castillo for Mason Miller. Whadayathink? |
| 1:52 |
: I dig it! Really solid deal |
| 1:52 |
: are you excited and/ or rostering any of the latest call ups (Carrigg, B. Montgomery, Crews)? would you be rostering any in a 12 team league? |
| 1:56 |
: Yes! I’m not out on Crews long-term, but definitely looking closer at Braden Montgomery and Cole Carrigg in this group. Braden is one of my favorite prospects in the game so I am partial to him but he’s not that far ahead of Carrigg, who is playing daily for Colorado. If you need more speed, I can see favoring Carrigg, but just overall production it’s Monty, Carrigg, Crews for me |
| 1:57 |
: Whats going on with Michael King? do you expect a rebound for the rest of the year? |
| 1:58 |
: I’m downgrading him a bit right now. Had a little debate on him in yesterday’s SP chart and I’ve been moved to drop him for the foreseeable future https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-june-16th-2026/ |
| 1:58 |
: He is one of those guys who can emerge back into Must-Start status so I’m likely not cutting everywhere indiscriminately, but the ATL/LAD 2-step next week is terrifying |
| 1:59 |
: What should the Phillies do with Painter? They have to send him down, don’t they? |
| 2:00 |
: Definitely. It’s one thing to be challenged and another to be overmatched. He’s in the latter right now and I don’t think a competing team can keep running him out there every 5th |
| 2:00 |
: Jack Leiter? He’s got good peripherals but is so frustrating. Is he still a hold in an AL Only keeper league or should I be shopping him for peanuts? |
| 2:03 |
: In AL Only, I can’t imagine there’s much else to go for over him. He gets an at MIA/at TOR 2-step next week that I can see running and maybe that’s his last hurrah? If he Duds out on that for you, maybe even a strong middle reliever is a better choice? He also get Minnesota tomorrow, so basically we can use those 3 starts to finally decide on him. If it’s the standard inconsistency we’ve gotten this year or worse – cut. If he starts to show some consistency in terms of the swing-and-miss, can see what the schedule offers beyond next week and decide to hold |
| 2:04 |
: Is Altuve washed? I know we won’t get peak Altuve anymore, but it’s been rough so far |
| 2:07 |
: Yeah I think he’s showing his age (36) for sure. He’s earning the AVG his skills have produced according to xBA and that tracks w/the batted ball profile (and lack of speed) we’re seeing. |
| 2:08 |
: Hi Paul- thanks as always. Is Dustin May a hold in keeper or a sell for a cheap bat? |
| 2:12 |
: Oh I’d ask for more than a cheap bat. And I say that as a skeptic of his coming into the year. Loved him w/the Dodgers as I was enamored by the nasty sinkers sliders before realizing they were too nasty to actually induce swings, but he’s actually missing bats during this hot run: 2.60 ERA/0.82 WHIP/29% K/13% SwStr/22% K-BB across 7 starts. His success dates back further (2.54 ERA since opening w/2 Duds and likely being cut everywhere) but these last 7 really show the dominance improving. I’d rather see this out than trade just for trade sake. If you’re going to trade, ask for a real return |
| 2:13 |
: It never fails…I been blindly starting McLean all year, and when I finally get fed up and bench him for a “tough” start in Cincinnati, he has his best start of the year. |
| 2:14 |
: Yeppp, same exact thing I did with Sandy’s 2-step a couple wks back. So frustrating. I don’t think it invalidates the move just bc it went poorly, but I totally get the annoyance! |
| 2:15 |
: I feel like the window is closing quickly on the Parker Messick sell high zone. Do you agree it’s wise to shop him with the looming uncertainty of how he will handle this unprecedented workload? I already ditched Braxton Ashcraft for the same reason. |
| 2:15 |
: For a sell high? Absolutely. I don’t necessarily think you have to sell unless it’s a high return but I definitely get exploring it. But again, I wouldn’t trade just to trade, I’d rather take the rest of the stats I can get and see where it goes with a potential IP limit |
| 2:16 |
: OK y’all, I gotta head out, but thanks so much for coming and filling up the queue! Talk with y’all next week! |