Starting Pitchers Who Lost Stuff and Command in May and June

Last week, we examined a few starting pitchers who gained stuff and command in May and June. This time, we’re looking at starting pitchers who lost stuff and command since May 1. Pitchers can go through stretches of gaining and losing stuff and command, with these metrics fluctuating over time. The visual below shows the pitchers who lost two points in their Stuff+ and Location+ since May 1.

Though Cam Schlittler is on the list of fallers, his Stuff+ and Location+ remain in the high-end range after being near-elite in April. The same can be said for Jacob deGrom. No need to dive deeper on them right now. Then there are the names that aren’t fantasy relevant: Adrian Houser, Chris Paddack, Kyle Freeland, and Jack Kochanowicz (injury). We alreadydiscussed Luis Castillo earlier in the season as one of the struggling starters. Jack Leiter has been a stuff-over-command pitcher, so it’s understandable to see his Location+ regress. 

But we will do a deeper examination of several of these starting pitchers who lost stuff and command since May 1. Why have they lost stuff and command? Should we buy, sell, or hold based on those changes?

Freddy Peralta, SP, Mets

Freddy Peralta’s was commanding his pitches well through April, with a 106 Location+. The results were solid for Peralta, with a 3.52 ERA (3.74 xERA), a 15.9% K-BB%, and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate. Since May 1, as both his Stuff+ (94) and Location+ (104) have declined, results have followed: his 4.23 ERA, 11.4% K-BB% and 10% swinging-strike rate have all been worse than they were before May 1. The rest of Peralta’s ERA estimators, like FIP (4.38) and xFIP (4.15), align with his worse results, though his 3.72 xERA gives us some optimism.

Through April, Peralta’s four-seam had a 107 Location+ with the curveball at 110. However, Peralta’s four-seam Location+ slipped to 103 with a more significant decline for the curveball (100 Location+) since May 1. Based on the four-seam heat maps, it appears that Peralta has been leaving his four-seamer more in the heart of the zone, with some consistency in the upper parts. 

Peralta has been locating his four-seamer slightly higher in the zone, over three inches higher in the June sample. His arm angle has fallen to 32 degrees this season, down six degrees from 2025. With Peralta’s lower arm angle, his four-seamer moves over two inches more toward his arm side. Given the slightly above-average Location+ via the four-seamer, he is still showing decent command with the heater. However, Peralta’s curveball command has been more worrisome over the past month or so.

Peralta mainly throws his curveball to left-handed hitters, throwing them 14.1% of the time. The curveball heatmaps show us the command roller coaster. Sometimes, he throws the curveball in the heart of the zone, while other times they’re located on the outside of the plate against lefties. For context, Peralta throws his curveball in the zone 41.7% of the time this season after 36.6% in 2025. That’s notable because Peralta’s curveball results have been brutal, with a .365 wOBA, though the .241 xwOBA suggests the outcomes could regress against left-handed hitters. 

Stuff and command can fluctuate throughout the season. Though Peralta might not have high-end skills like in previous seasons, he is still an above-average starting pitcher. The biggest changes to monitor throughout the season are how his arm angle impacts pitch movement, like the four-seamer adding more arm-side fade and curveball command.

If Peralta’s Stuff+ doesn’t regress closer to the career norms, there’s a slimmer margin for error for him to rely mainly upon command. Even with the recent struggles, Peralta’s track record should help fantasy managers be patient.

Ryan Weathers, SP, Yankees

Injuries have been an ongoing issue for Ryan Weathers. When he was throwing harder last season and into Spring Training, many wondered if it could lead to another injury. Weathers was been commanding his pitches well through April (114 Location+) and while his Location+ is down since May 1 (108), it is still strong. To open the season, Weathers had a 109 or better Location+ on all four of his pitches. As his overall command grades have decreased, he has still maintained at least a 105 on each pitch. His changeup, with a 113 Location+, leads the way.

When Weathers struggles with the changeup locations, it’s mainly when he throws them higher in the zone. 

Weathers has been throwing his changeup 2-4 inches higher in the zone in June, leading to poor outcomes (.376 wOBA, .421 xwOBA). However, the overall results via changeups against right-handed hitters have been solid this season (.245 wOBA, .251 xwOBA). When looking at the monthly splits, the changeup results have been brutal when he throws them higher in the zone instead of pounding them low and away to right-handed hitters. Since the changeup is one of his best pitches from a command standpoint, we should expect him to adjust the command.

Similarly, Weathers’s command of his sweepers and sliders has been slightly different since May 1, specifically against right-handed hitters. In May and June, Weathers has been throwing both slider types toward the heart of the zone and low/inside to right-handed hitters. However, Weathers often threw his sweepers and sliders more toward the outside corner, like a backdoor breaking pitch through April. Since he has been commanding his sliders and sweepers well, we should expect his command numbers to regress favorably like earlier in the season.

Weathers’s four-seamer Location+ (113) has been 11 points higher than his career average. However, the four-seamer has been hit hard by right-handed hitters. Weathers’s four-seam allows a .429 wOBA (.445 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters this season, up from 2025 (.281 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and 2024 (.371 wOBA, .367 xwOBA). Though the heatmaps don’t quite show the command issues, Weathers is throwing his four-seamer over two inches more toward the heart of the zone against right-handed hitters this season compared to 2025. Weathers needs precise command, especially since he lacks extension, in the 5th percentile. 

Through April, Weathers’s slider (110) and changeup (106) were leading his arsenal in Stuff+. Since May 1, Weathers’s slider (108) is the only pitch with a Stuff+ above 100. For context, his changeup Stuff+ fell to 97 since May 1. His command is good enough to not need elite stuff, but having only one above average pitch by Stuff+ is at least a little concerning.

On a shallower level, Weathers boasts a career-best K-BB% (19.7%), aligning with his 3.45 SIERA. The command has been strong, plus we’ve seen Weathers have multiple above-average pitches from a Stuff+ standpoint as recently as April. This is somewhat like Schlittler, where Weathers lost stuff and command, but it’s still been solid. Hold and don’t sell. 

J.T. Ginn, SP, Athletics

J.T. Ginn has been commanding his pitches well, though his Stuff+ fell significantly since May 1. Ginn’s sinker (116) and slider (104) led his arsenal from a Stuff+ standpoint through April. Since May 1, Ginn’s sinker (107) is the only pitch with an above-average Stuff+ grade, with the slider dipping to a 94. From a command standpoint, Ginn had four pitches with a Location+ at 100 or above through April. However, Ginn’s only pitch with a Location+ above 100 is the changeup (116) since May 1. 

Ginn’s slider has been effective against right-handed hitters, allowing a .256 wOBA (.202 xwOBA) this season. It probably helps that Ginn has two variations on his slider: the true slider (21.8% usage) and acutter (14.8%), which he throws often to right-handed hitters. His cutter has been generating weak contact, allowing a .000 wOBA (.143 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters this season. That might suggest Ginn’s slider and cutter play well off each other.

Ginn’s primary pitch is his sinker, which he locates low and inside to right-handed hitters. Interestingly, Ginn has been throwing his sinker nearly three inches (2.9) lower in the zone this season, compared to 2025. When it’s working well, his sinker generates weak contact (.269 wOBA, .309 xwOBA), though not as many groundballs (47.8%) this season compared to his career average (53%). 

After being unlucky in the home run department last season (21.5% HR/FB), Ginn’s home run rate regressed, helping to improve the ratios. It might be risky to expect Ginn to suppress home runs in a hitter-friendly home park. Ginn’s 12.1% K-BB% does suggest some shaky skills, though he can overcome them with his above-average command. If Ginn’s command wanes, there will be bumps in the road. Be cautious over-investing in Ginn. 

Will Warren, SP, Yankees

Will Warren’s stuff and command remain above average since May 1 after being near-elite through April. This season, Warren’s four-seamer is eight points higher in Stuff+, with the curveball (117 Stuff+) and changeup (101 Stuff+) being the other notable contributors to his three-point jump in the overall Stuff+ (106). It’s a noisy Stuff+ for the curveball, since Warren only threw 35 of them this season.

Meanwhile, Warren’s four-seamer pitch movement profile looks similar to last season. Though Warren’s changeup Stuff+ jumped from a 90 career Stuff+, it has a similar movement profile. It’s worth highlighting that Warren’s changeup generates plenty of downward movement (36.5 inches, 3.8 inches more than the average) and arm-side fade (15 inches, 0.7 more inches than the average).

Unfortunately, Warren’s changeup struggles to elicit whiffs, with a 10.4% swinging-strike rate this season. Warren’s low changeup zone rate (19.8%) probably leads to opposing hitters laying off of them low in the zone. Specifically, Warren’s changeup has been thrown 2.8 inches lower in the zone against left-handed hitters. However, the changeup induces weak contact against left-handed hitters (.138 wOBA, .229 xwOBA). That probably tells us Warren commands the changeup well, supported by a 112 Location+ this year.

Warren commands all his pitches well, as the four-seamer (105), sinker (101), slider (116), and curveball (104) all have above-average Location+. It’s been a significant command jump compared to the career averages for the four-seamer (99), slider (99), and changeup (104).

Warren’s sweeper locations have been nearly identical to right-handed hitters, but there has been a change against left-handed hitters. Typically, sweepers have been more successful against same-handed hitters. Understandably, left-handed hitters have been crushing the sweeper (.498 wOBA, .475 xwOBA), which he throws 17% of the time. Warren is throwing his sweepers nearly four inches (3.9) higher this season than in 2025 against left-handed hitters. When Warren hangs his sweeper in the heart of the zone, left-handed hitters crush it, as seen below.

Warren’s skills, stuff, and command numbers support his outcomes and the expected ERA metrics. All of Warren’s expected ERA metrics are under 3.80, but he tends to allow a higher BABIP (.310), which impacts his WHIP (1.29). It looks like Warren is finally putting it together with better stuff and command across the board.

It might be my previous bias, but I would be looking to acquire Warren if possible.