After every regular season, I review team-level runs scored and overall offensive production while the data is still fresh. The goal is to eventually identify positive outlier offenses for the upcoming fantasy season, which is usually much easier said than done. I walk through the story of each offense to find answers to questions that arise. Why did the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays produce 20% fewer runs the season after their World Series appearances? How did the Nationals, White Sox, Pirates, and Rockies go from bottom-10 offenses in 2025 to top-10 offenses in 2026? What happened to the Phillies last season? Why are the Angels so awful? Other than the last question, none of these have simple answers. We generally know the season-long story of most offenses, but digging into the details can help uncover some helpful nuggets. This review and refresher is Part One.
Part Two of my analysis of offenses happens in March, once spring training is in full swing and we know the general makeup of rosters — notable injuries, hitters who aren’t returning, new acquisitions, and top prospects ready for The Show. Drafting “hitters from the best offenses” is a difficult strategy to execute in snake drafts and even auctions. The best players from the best offenses are usually expensive. Not only do Dodgers, Yankees, and Braves hitters recently require high draft capital, but supporting-cast middle-rounders on those offenses often get pushed up in ADP or AAV. Wouldn’t it be a huge edge to identify offenses that projection models, baseball pundits, and fantasy analysts are too low or too high on? Is there a way to do this? Let’s find out. Read the rest of this entry »
The 2025 season provided ideal outcomes for fantasy managers who invested in elite starting pitchers. That season, Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet and Zack Wheeler were the top four pitchers drafted. Per our Fantasy Player Rater, Skubal ($35.5), Crochet ($32.8) and Skenes ($30.8) finished 1-2-3 among starting pitchers in all roto formats. Wheeler finished 14th ($22.6) despite his season being cut short. As is the case every single year, to varying degrees, there were mid-round arms who produced elite roto seasons (Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown, Max Fried), as well starters such as Nathan Eovaldi, Matthew Boyd, and Trevor Rogers who provided hefty profit a as late-round picks and free agent acquisitions.
As is also the case every season, there were early-round landmines. Cole Ragans, Blake Snell, and Corbin Burnes all missed at least two-thirds of the season due to injuries. Logan Gilbert investors certainly weren’t thrilled about his abbreviated season with only six wins. Nevertheless, dream seasons from the Crème de la crème instilled an illusion of tranquility at the top of the SP pool for 2026 drafts despite the position’s inherent risks and volatile history.
The calm ominously turned to storm on Opening Day. Paul Skenes couldn’t get out of the first inning against the Mets, allowing five earned runs, as droves of social media melodramatics scolded us: “…and that’s why you never draft pitchers early!” Skenes (174 IP – 200 K – 10 W – 3.82 – 1.12) inevitably lost “fantasy god” status as his price dropped a couple of rounds for 2027 drafts. Skubal was a top 10 pitcher with elite ratios, but did not have his usual season of dominance due to missing 5-6 starts. Crochet was an injury landmine and one of many early-round busts.
There were some wins in the second tier (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Chris Sale) as well as disappointments (Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown, Ragans again), but what may be most memorable about last season’s starting pitcher pool was that leagues were won without having to invest in early starting pitchers at all. Of course, that only happened to managers who side-stepped the early-round hitter landmines like Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Francisco Lindor and Cal Raleigh. The two top producers – Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler – were post-100 ADP picks. Of the 19 starters who earned $14 or more in 12-team leagues, 13 had an ADP of 100+, including six with an ADP of 250 or greater.
Back in February and March, I produced a series of articles comparing players at similar ADPs for each position. I broke down each set of hitters by four pillars: playing time and role, health and durability, skills and categorical contributions, and context of team offense. In re-reading my articles, the March 10, 2026 piece on middle-round corner infielders stood out because it covered a goldmine ADP cluster that featured two eventual fantasy difference-makers and two others who provided substantial fantasy profit. Let’s revisit that cluster of first basemen and third basemen, a journey that may be a joyful trip down Memory Lane for some, and a FOMO nightmare to others.
There was no joy in Gutville as my 2026 bold preseason predictions proved fruitless. I intentionally focused on early-round hitters, so later-round targets like Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Logan Henderson, and Drew Rasmussen had no chance of making the cut. Read and laugh at my preseason bold predictions by position among the top 100 ADP.
On the third Saturday of March, as has been customary for many of the past 15 years, I joined friends and colleagues in Las Vegas to draft live in the NFBC. Their Main Event is the largest national high-stakes contest – a 15-team standard 5×5 roto format with an $1,800 entry fee and a $200,000 grand prize for the overall champion. This season, I reduced my FAAB leagues from 10+ to five to focus on content and time management/family balance. Before having kids, spending most of my Sunday updating FAAB content and working through my own bids was no sweat. Now, with two youngens, ages five and seven, and a robust youth travel hockey schedule, limited weekend time during the MLB season is mostly spent on producing content. For that weekend in Vegas, the Saturday NFBC Main Event was my only live draft in the Year of Brad Lord, 2026.
A few days before the draft, I set pick 14 as my sixth draft preference (KDS) after picks 1-5 and earned the 14th pick. I would have been thrilled to earn pick one or two to start with Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. Sadly for many, those early first-round picks were anything but a gift this year. At pick 14 and pick 17 in the second round, I knew I would have the option to select two players I’d be happy with — Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Junior Caminero, and/or Cristopher Sánchez. Since Sánchez was my only SP target in Round 2, I mapped out two contingency-based draft roadmaps: one with Sánchez, and one that started with two hitters. I also had a few precepts for this draft I wanted to stick by:
Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.
