Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun.

Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire — a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.

Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out to a long-term view and getting stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.

This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to try selling high or buying low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal for or acquire, and how good their player and market-valuation skills are. I’ll dig deep and present realistic opportunities.

SIERA and K-BB% to Spot Under- and Over-Performing SPs

ERA indicators or ERA estimators or peripherals — these are interchangeable terms for a set of Sabermetric statistics that fantasy baseball managers use to help predict future performance of pitchers. These ERA indicators (xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are not interchangeable since they include different inputs and have varying purposes. FIP excludes balls hit into play. xFIP utilizes the league average HR/FB%. SIERA incorporates a pitcher’s underlying skill level into the equation and adjusts for the type of balls in play. The SI stands for “Skills Interactive”, and you can learn more about SIERA in the original article here. SIERA is far from perfect, but many studies over the last 15 years have proven it to have a slightly higher correlation to ERA than the other indicators.

Over the years, I have utilized a simple formula (ERA minus SIERA) to identify pitchers who could be deemed “lucky”, with negative regression on the horizon, and vice versa — “unlucky” with a higher likelihood of positive regression. To further qualify the luck or lack thereof, I review BABIP and LOB% (left-on-base rate, or strand rate). In the context of fantasy baseball FAAB/waiver pickups or trades, I dig into pitchers’ year-to-date starts and look at their projected upcoming starts – both from a perspective of ballpark/environment and strength of opponent. Moreover, and most importantly, I am reviewing the most important metric of all, which is K-BB% (the difference between their strikeout rate and walk rate). Proficient at punching batters out, able to locate pitches and not walk a lot of guys? You’re probably going to have above-average results.

Before our sage readers bring out their pitchforks, note that I recognize there is a lot of nuance here and not everything can be overly simplified. Of course, a high or low BABIP is impacted by team defense, or if a pitcher generates weak or hard contact. Nevertheless, I assume a pitcher with four seasons of around a league-average BABIP (.290) who has a .365 BABIP through five starts is going to regress towards his career mean. The same for a pitcher with a 100% LOB% through five starts, regressing towards the league average of 70-75%.

The perfect example for this point in the season is the pitcher who has been the very best in baseball, Los Angeles Angels righty, José Soriano.

Through five starts, Soriano has a 0.28 ERA, 3.04 SIERA, 2.82 xFIP, 21.7 K-BB%, .149 BABIP, and a 100% LOB.

In his first two full seasons as a starter (2024-2025), those rates were: 3.93 ERA, 3.97 SIERA, 3.65 xFIP, 10.6 K-BB%, .291 BABIP, and a 69% LOB.

It wouldn’t be far-fetched to assume that Soriano will regress from a 0.28 ERA. In fact, it’s common sense. His BABIP and LOB will regress towards his league-average marks from 2024-2025, but likely both will still be well above league-average. We see that his 2024-2025 ERA, SIERA, and xFIP were similar (in the 3.65-4.00 range) and that his current indicators are closer to 3.00. If Soriano ends up with a 3.50 ERA this season, that means there’s some ERA damage to come (to be expected), but he will still end up being a massive provider of fantasy profit at his 250+ ADP. The question to ask ourselves in trade leagues: can we net a top-10 starting pitcher for Soriano in a “sell-high” scenario from a league-mate who only peruses box scores, doesn’t dive into advanced metrics or consider indicators?

Let’s take a look at the qualified starting pitchers with the highest (unluckiest) and lowest (luckiest) differentials between their ERA and SIERA. I use “unlucky” and “lucky” in quotations for these sorted leaderboards to simply denote these differentials noting that luck isn’t a metric.

Unluckiest Starting Pitchers To Date

We knew the Jesús Luzardo Experience would be the ultimate roller coaster going into the season. Luzardo is a top-10 skills arm with extreme highs and lows. This is the guy who served up 20 earned runs in back-to-back starts in the week of the 2025 Memorial Day holiday, but allowed two runs or fewer in 50% (16/32) of his starts last season. Luzardo punched out seven or more batters in 18 of those 32 starts. So far in 2026, Luzardo has an exceptional 30:5 K:BB in 22 innings, an extremely high BABIP of .417 (career: .307), a super low LOB of 41.7% (career: 70%) and a massive difference between his ERA (7.94) and SIERA/xFIP (2.45/1.93). He is the ultimate “buy-low” target, though whether we strike a deal or not is based on mindset of the league-mate who currently rosters him. Are they metrics-saavy and have good fantasy common sense? If so, you probably won’t get a surefire advantage on a deal. Would I trade Soriano for Luzardo? It’s 10x more equitable than it was on March 15, but yes, yes I would, and I’d obnoxiously ask for a throw-in player “to make the deal fair.” (winky emoji)

There is no doubting the high level of concern someone who drafted Garrett Crochet in the first or second round of their draft might have. His implosion in Minnesota (10 ER in 1.2 IP) came out of the blue. Last Sunday, he cruised through four innings against the Tigers before getting torched for four runs on two singles and two homers, in the fifth. Crochet’s BABIP is high (.368) and LOB is low (55.6%), though not at extreme Luzardo levels. His fastball velocity is slightly down from last season (0.5 mph), as is his strikeout rate (-5.4%) and his swinging-strike rate (-3%). It doesn’t look awful under the hood, but because Crochet was drafted as a top-3 pitcher and these blowups are uncharacteristic of him, the trepidation in dealing for him is high.

Digging into FanGraphs player profiles on the rest of these players elicit a common theme in addition to the large ERA-SIERA differentials: above-average BABIPs, below-average LOBs, and, for the most part, a slight velocity decrease. In the case of Mike Burrows, his SwStr% is up from last season (12% to 12.7%) and his barrel rate is greatly reduced (10.8% to 5.7%). Burrows’ next three projected starts are against the Yankees (home), Red Sox (away), and Dodgers (home), so perhaps we weather the storm and pluck him off waivers in a few weeks when his schedule improves.

Yusei Kikuchi’s four-seam fastball velocity is slightly up from last season (94.8 mph to 95.4), but it’s an offering he continues to decrease because it typically gets crushed. He’s an example of a pitcher I typically avoid drafting and want nothing to do with. Streaming Jake Irvin (career 4.99 ERA) is always a case of playing with fire. He’s another pitcher I never want anything to do with.

David Peterson and Aaron Nola are on the downswings of their careers, but both have a high chance of improving their ERAs. Everything under the hood appears similar to last season. Logan Webb, Nathan Eovaldi, and Logan Gilbert are three arms I’d explore deals on.

Luckiest Starting Pitchers To Date

Other than Soriano, the standout “lucky” pitcher worth shopping is Justin Wrobleski. The sample size is smaller than most on the list (24 IP: three starts, one 4-IP piggyback), but we can still confidently yell “negative regression” so long as our league-mates don’t hear it. Wrobleski has a 9.8% strikeout rate (9 Ks), a .205 BABIP and has yet to allow a home run. Wrobleski earns confidence points as a member of the Dodgers rotation, but will rarely earn two starts in a week because of they run a six-man, and he’s no lock to remain in it for the long-run with Blake Snell and River Ryan eventually joining it.

Seth Lugo has been masterful through five starts, but he’s the same guy he’s always been — 91-92 mph FB velo, 8-9% BB, sub-10% SwStr. The big difference this season is he has yet to allow a home run. Edward Cabrera hasn’t allowed a home run either, but there is little else in his profile to elicit confidence. Cabrera’s .286 BABIP is close to his career mark and to league-average, his strikeout rate is way down (25.8% to 18.7%), his 12.1% walk rate is closer to his career mark (11.7%) which may portend last season’s 8.3% as an outlier, and his Stuff+ ratings are down across the board. Cabrera’s next start is against the Phillies at home, this Thursday. I would not be looking to trade for E-Cab, though I would explore dealing him for a more durable pitcher with a higher health grade around his preseason ADP, like MacKenzie Gore or Robbie Ray.

Many others on this list aren’t particularly enticing from a name-brand, reputation or fantasy value perspective — Michael Wacha, Clay Holmes, Bryce Elder, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Bryce Elder fall under this category. Seeing Jack Flaherty’s 3.7 K-BB% induces agita, especially when noting the decline from 2024 (24%) and 2025 (18.9%). We can’t technically call it a decline yet since it’s only been five starts, but he’s another roller coaster guy who is tough to ride with. Last season, he served up at least four earned runs in 26% of his starts failed to reach the fifth inning in 28%. He somehow managed an 8-15 record on a playoff team that finished 12 games above .500.

There will always be outliers, but the holes poked into this process would be tiny pinholes. This process have assisted in my fantasy baseball endeavors for many years and I always strive to improve it and learn from experience and those around me. Reviewing ERA and SIERA differentials, BABIP and LOB rates relative to average, recent and future matchups, and of course strikeout-to-walk ratios are good first steps in assessing over/underperforming pitchers and their rest-of-season fantasy value.

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 4 Overview

There’s a new no. 1 hitter in 5×5 roto and it’s Yankees’ Ben Rice! Rice slashed .300/.423/.900 in 25 plate appearances last week, with 7 R, 4 HR, and 6 RBI.

Here are the top-ranked year-to-date hitters and pitchers in 12-team roto through four weeks:

José Ramírez had a massive week against the Cardinals and Orioles. He scored nine runs, hit four home runs and lead the Majors with five stolen bases.

Mike Trout and Aaron Judge led the week in power, with five dingers apiece. Hitters with four: Ramírez, Rice, Yordan Alvarez, Munetaka Murakami and Jeremiah Jackson. Murekami has gone deep in three straight games.

James Wood (hitter no. 8) batted .185 with a week-high 14 strikeouts in 27 at-bats, but hit two bombs and swiped two bags. Wood leads all hitters in strikeouts (35 in 22 games), but is only 14th in strikeout rate (32.4%) among qualified hitters. Matt Wallner (42%) and Hunter Goodman (39.8%) are the league leaders. Athletics’ Nick Kurtz was the only guy with double-digit walks last week (10). Kurtz has the highest walk rate (25.3%) among qualified hitters.

A surprising fact: Nico Hoerner is tied for the league lead in runs batted in (21) along with Yordan Alvarez and Andy Pages.

Among 35 starting pitchers who threw two starts, only three (8.5%) earned two wins: George Kirby, Gavin Williams and Michael King. Garrett Crochet allowed 15 earned runs in his two starts. Others who got crushed: Mike Burrows, Javier Assad (10 ER), Trevor Rogers, Ryne Nelson, Luis Severino (9), and Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell (8). Jesús Luzardo and  Tyler Mahle allowed eight runs each, but in just one start each.

Mason Miller continues to dominate. He led the week with four saves (four appearances) with four strikeouts and just one hit and one walk allowed.

Let’s dive into the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB):

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Jeremiah Jackson was the most popular hitter addition in Fantrax following his breakout week: 27 PA – .346/.370/.846 – 4 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB. Jackson has earned 10 straight starts, taking advantage of playing time opportunities on an offense riddled with injuries (Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Tyler O’Neill, Adley Rutschman). A right-handed hitter, Jackson usually bats eighth or ninth against RHPs and fifth or sixth against LHPs. Jackson, who turned 26 on Opening Day, was a second-round draft pick of the Angels in 2018. The Angels traded him to the Mets for Dominic Leone at the 2023 trade deadline. Jackson signed with the Orioles as a free agent in 2025 and made his major league debut on August 1. Jackson stuck with the Orioles for the rest of the season, batting .273 with 5 HR and 21 RBI in 183 PA (48 games). He has carried over his success into his first full season. Though Jackson deserves full-time at-bats, he is likely to fall into a short-side platoon with Jackson Holliday at second base. Jackson (Jeremiah, not Holliday) can also play in the outfield, where he can step in for Colton Cowser against southpaws, to keep his bat in the lineup.

Spencer Arrighetti, Keider Montero and Justin Wrobleski were the top additions among starting pitchers. All three are slated to earn two starts in Week 5. Arrighetti had a sparkling 2026 debut (6 IP – 1 H – 1 ER – 10 K), though it was against the Rockies, at home. Wrobleski tossed eight scoreless innings with just two hits allowed against the Mets last Monday. He locks into a two-start week within this six-man rotation because the Dodgers play seven games. Montero will receive an extended opportunity in the Tigers rotation since 43-year-old Justin Verlander’s recovery is “going a little slower” than he or the Tigers anticipated (but we anticipated it, didn’t we?).

Daniel Schneemann is the quintessential example of Fool’s Gold — a below-average hitter who had a great week and is more likely to cool off and be dropped soon. Schneemann started 5-of-6 last week at second, third and shortstop, including one start against a lefty. The Guardians are slated to face six RHPs this week. That bodes well for his playing time, though he’ll face Arrighetti on Tuesday and tough Blue Jays arms (Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease) on the weekend.

% Lgs Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player (240 total leagues); AWB stands for Average Winning Bid

The tallest player in the Majors has arrived! All hail, 6’10” Noah Schultz! The heralded southpaw pitching prospect ran into trouble in his debut on Tuesday (3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB in 4.1 IP) against the Rays on Tuesday. He followed that up with a dominant start against the Athletics in Sacramento on Sunday (5 IP – 1 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 6 K), the lone damage on a Darell Hernaiz home run. Schultz rocks a five-pitch mix (four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, cutter, changeup). His primary fastball averages 96.4 mph. He threw it at a 31.7% rate, mostly against right-handed batters. Schultz utilized his sinker and sweeper more for the lefties. He should remain on fantasy rosters of all formats as long as he stays healthy, though more rough starts are to be expected. His schedule lines up favorably the next few weeks: home against the Nationals, at Padres, at Angels, home against the Royals.

Fellow White Sox rookie Sam Antonacci was also promoted to the big club last week. His slow start may have slightly kept his AWB below $50 — he went 2-20 with two walks, two hit by pitches, one run and one stolen base. It would likely take more than just one more week of an ice-cold bat for him to be demoted, though it’s likely that he hits the bench against left-handed starters. Antonacci stole 48 bases on 58 attempts  in the minors last season. He did not make his Triple-A debut until 2026. He should be helpful in stolen bases and batting average once he gets acclimated. He should eventually earn the leadoff gig against RHPs.

Bryce Elder carries his 0.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through four starts into a two-start week against the Nationals (away) and Phillies (home). Elder doesn’t have a good fantasy reputation. The proverbial other shoe could drop in any start, but things look good under the hood. His .271 BABIP nor 2.74 FIP portend great luck, his hard-hit rate is way down (from 44.5% the last two seasons to 31.7% this season) and he’s only allowed one total barrel on 91 batters faced. Another positive is his control — Elder has maintained a sub-8% walk rate since 2024, which is 42 starts. There certainly are no guarantees that he sticks with the rotation all season, especially with Spencer Strider and eventually Didier Fuentes and JR Ritchie joining, but he deserves to remain in it for now. It’s fair to have concerns about him in the back of our heads, though we probably have bigger things to worry about if we have Cole Ragans and Trevor Rogers on our squads.

Saves have been a huge point of frustration in roto leagues as bullpens have been ravaged. It’s not just the typical chaos among the lower-tier guys, it’s most of the studs except Mason Miller.

The RP2 during draft season, Edwin Díaz, elicited concerns after a rough inning on April 10 against the Rangers (four hits, one walk, three earned runs), had eight days off then got cooked by the Rockies on Sunday — a walk, three hits and three runs allowed without an out. It’s interesting that Alex Vesia procured a higher AWB in NFBC OCs than Tanner Scott ($28 to $23). It feels like fantasy managers there are box score watching, making assumptions for the immediate future because Vesia earned the two most recent saves. Vesia pitched the last two days and will likely be unavailable on Monday in Coors. Whether or not Díaz goes on the IL, even if it’s just a phantom stint, expect Scott to earn the bulk of the opportunities. He’s been terrific and has significant closer experience. I’m predicting a three-save week.

The other notable relievers acquired this week were Brad Keller (PHI), Joel Kuhnel (ATH), Caleb Thielbar (CHC), Enyel De Los Santos (HOU) and Louis Varland (TOR). Phillies manager Rob Thomson wants Keller to handle the bulk of save opportunities while Jhoan Duran (oblique strain) remains on the IL. A converted reliever, Keller enjoyed his official breakout year last season (2.07 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 27.2% K, 8% BB). He has nine punchouts, three walks and four earned runs allowed in nine appearances (8.2 innings). Fireballer lefty José Alvarado may earn opportunities as well, but Keller is the primary guy. Duran will likely need more than the minimum 15 days.

Thielbar is a 39-year-old veteran lefty with five career saves since 2013 until he stepped in to close out Saturday’s contest. Thielbar followed that up with a win as the pitcher of record in the 10th inning as the Cubs swept the Mets, handing them their 11th straight loss. The Cubs will be without closer Daniel Palencia (oblique) for a few weeks, who joins fellow relievers Hunter Harvey and Phil Maton on the IL, leaving the Cubs’ bullpen thin. Righty Ben Brown is their best reliever. He has mostly managed a multi-innings bridge role, though it wouldn’t be shocking to see him earn a save chance or two this week.

De Los Santos has stepped up as the Astros’ top righty in the bullpen with Bryan Abreu struggling badly. De Los Santos could a worthwhile interim closer as the team awaits Josh Hader’s return in three-to-four weeks.

Varland was mostly acquired as Jeff Hoffman insurance and as a common sense speculation pick with how badly Hoffman has been struggling. Varland has a 16:3 K:BB in 11 innings without allowing a run. Hoffman has 20 punchouts in 9.1 innings, but has already racked up three blown saves and eight runs allowed(six in his last two appearances). Blue Jays’ John Schneider doesn’t appear to be as worried as we are. I believe Schneider will give Hoffman the next save opportunity, but if he blows it, Varland would step in.

Drop of the Week

It may not feel great to click, but it makes sense for every fantasy manager without an available IL slot to drop Nick Pivetta. Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain earlier this week and Padres manager says that his rehab and rest time would be “weeks, maybe months”. There is reason to soak up a valuable bench spot on a pitcher who may or may not return before the All-Star break.

Can’t stop this man!

On the Agenda:

1. Closer Chaos
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Is this the worst start to the season for closers ever? The chaos continues:

• Lucas Erceg (Royals) – first blown save; ERA is up to 6.14
• Clayton Beeter (Nationals) – second blown save; got the win; Orlando Ribalta earned his first career save
• Dennis Santana (Pirates) – took the loss in the 10th
• Ryan Walker (Giants) – entered the game after the starter (7th inning); Keaton Winn pitched the 8th, Erik Miller got the save
• Seranthony Domínguez (White Sox) – blew his second save of the year and took the loss
• Trevor Megill (Brewers) – pitched a clean inning, but it was the eighth (2 Ks); Angel Zerpa notched the save; Abner Uribe was unavailable
• Jakob Junis (Rangers) – came on in the 7th and got two outs; came back in the 8th, gave up a single, a double, and IBB to load the bases; was pulled for Jacob Latz, who gave up a bases-clearing double, hanging Junis with 3 ER

Meanwhile, Mason Miller struck out the side again and his extended his scoreless streak to 30.2 innings:

Miller has 23 punchouts in 9.1 innings — a 76.7% strikeout rate.

Various News and Notes

Cleveland Guardians rookie pitcher Parker Messick took a no-hit bid into the ninth inning, serving up a single to Orioles outfielder Leody Taveras.

Messick set a career high in strikeouts (eight) and boasts a 1.05 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through his first four starts.

San Francisco Giants righty Landen Roupp dominated the Reds on Thursday. He allowed just one hit and two walks over six scoreless innings. His ratios are down to a sparkling 2.38 and 0.97. Another late-round gem…at least, so far.

Braves veterans Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider both started their rehab assignments in High-A on Thursday. Strider threw 50 pitches (27 strikes) over 3.1 innings. He struck out three and allowed two walks and one hit. Most importantly, his fastball velocity sat between 95 and 97 mph, which is exactly what we want to see. Strider will continue to build up his pitch count, make another couple of starts in the Minors, and return to the Braves in early May, barring a setback.

Angels manager Kurt Suzuki mentioned Chase Silseth as a candidate for save opportunities if Jordan Romano is removed from the role. Silseth has 6:4 K:BB in 6.1 innings. Meanwhile, Kirby Yates (knee) should be starting a rehab assignment soon.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitchers for Today: Michael Soroka (RH, ARZ, 60% on Yahoo!)

Cheating on the %-rostered a bit since there aren’t many viable streaming options. The Diamondbacks will be home favorites and Soroka has pitched well so far.

Other Options: Zack Littell (RH, WSH, 7%)

Littell is a plus control and location guy, but this is more so a bet against the Giants.

Pitchers for Tomorrow: Lance McCullers Jr. (RH, HOU, 22% Y!, down 2% in the last 24 hours)

The Astros pushed their rotation back by a day and McCullers will now start against the Cardinals on Saturday. He threw a gem in his only home start (1 ER, 9 K in 7 IP), but was knocked around in his road starts.

Other Options: Cade Cavalli (RH, WSH, 10%)

Cavalli has been shaky this season (8 ER, 12 BB in 15.2 IP). We don’t have much in terms of streaming options on a slate filled with aces. Let’s pick on the Giants, the lowest-scoring team in the Majors, in hopes of a Cavalli bounce-back start.

Sorry, Julio. It’s not the second half of the season yet!

On the Agenda:

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

It was a rough one. We might be here awhile.

Andrés Muñoz entered the game with a 6-2 lead in the bottom of the ninth (non-save situation) and got hammered for five earned runs on four hits and a walk. His ERA ballooned from 3.00 to 9.45 and he’s up to free passes in 6.2 innings. It was his first appearance since last Saturday. The outing won’t cost Muñoz his job, but we’re certainly all #onwatch. Matt Brash is likely next in line, should it come to that. He’s currently the only Mariners reliever who has yet to allow a run.

The Mets’ woes continue as they’ve lost eight straight and are one loss away from their longest losing streak in 22 years. Closer Devin Williams entered the game in the eighth down 3-1 and fell apart at the seams…literally. The destruction culminated in a Dalton Rushing grand slam:

FIRST CAREER GRAND SLAM FOR DALTON RUSHING 🔥

LA breaks open the scoring in the 8th inning! pic.twitter.com/6r4zqvvP2o

— ESPN (@espn) April 16, 2026

Williams won’t lose his job for this. These were his first runs allowed as a Met and Luke Weaver has been much worse (6 ER in 6.2 IP: an 8.10 ERA).

Remember when I made fun of A’s reliever Joel Kuhnel on Monday? Well, life comes at us fast and the roto gods humble us quickly. He picked up his third save of the season and looked good doing it.

Kuhnel entered the contest with two outs in the eighth after Mark Leiter Jr. served up a three-run, pinch-hit bomb to Jake Burger, got the final out and pitched a clean ninth. Lefty Hogan Harris came on in the fifth inning after starter J.T. Ginn and was credited for the win. Kuhnel looks like the guy right now.

Enyel De Los Santos has scored saves in back-to-back games and might be in the mix for more opportunities. The 30-year-old is on his eighth Major League team in eight seasons and owns a career 4.39 ERA. Bryan Abreu earned a hold in Wednesday’s game, walking one batter and punching out two. Abreu brought his ERA down to 12.79.

With Trevor Megill having the night off after a rough day on Tuesday (3 ER), Abner Uribe was called upon in the ninth to secure a 2-1 victory over the reeling Blue Jays, and he delivered. Despite manager Pat Murphy coming to Megill’s defense when Brewers fans booed him on Tuesday, Megill is officially #onwatch.

I’d like to think this is a safe space, but since there’s a comments section and some of you may have picked this guy off waivers two weeks ago, I won’t bring him up, but can tell you his name rhymes with Gordon Soprano. Let’s hope he travels with the team and doesn’t accept an offer to ride the scenic route home through the Nevada desert.

Quick Hits

Angels outfielder Jorge Soler had his suspension dropped to four games and he began serving it on Wednesday. He should be back in the starting lineup on Sunday when the Angels face Michael King and the Padres.

Players placed on the injured list on Wednesday: Jared Young (1B, NYM), Kyle Freeland (SP, COL, should help his ERA), Chris Martin (RP, TEX) and San Francisco Giants outfielder Harrison Bader, who was slashing .115/.145/.192 through 15 games. Fellow outfielder Jared Oliva also went on the IL. The Giants called up Will Brennan (a right-handed hitter who should start against LHPs only) and local fan favorite, Drew Gilbert.

Various News and Notes

A warm welcome to White Sox’ new infielder/outfielder, Sam Antonacci, who made his Major League debut on Wednesday! He batted fifth, started at second base, and singled in his first career at-bat.

You might remember the 23-year-old from the WBC as the only hitter from Team Italy you didn’t recognize, but were 100% certain was Italian. Samuel Joseph Antonacci batted .291 with 48 swipes between High-A and Double-A last season. He also has the Pope’s blessing.

The Shota Imanaga vs. Jesús Luzardo battle in the Cubs-Phillies tilt was supposed to must-watch television. Unfortunately, Phillies fans and those of us rostering Luzardo had to turn the tube off. Luzardo got bombarded for eight earned runs and 12 hits in 5.1 innings, ballooning his already-high ERA up to 7.94. Luzardo served up six earnies in his first start then bounced back in Coors for 6.2 scoreless innings and 11 strikeouts. Remember, last season, he gave up 20 runs in back-to-back starts, but allowed two runs or less in 50% (16-of-32) of his starts. This is just how he rolls…it’s a roller coaster! We can’t drop him, so we just have to keep riding.

Meanwhile, Imanaga twirled a masterful gem (6 IP – 3 H – 1 ER – 1 BB – 11 K). In his previous start, Imanaga hurled six shutout innings and punched out nine Pirates.

Just when history and trends tell us that Reds rookie Sal Stewart is due to cool off, he takes it up yet another notch! Stewart hit three-run dingers in consecutive at-bats on Wednesday — both off former Reds pitcher Tyler Mahle, who was making his first start in Cincinnati in another uniform.

The kid teammates call “Salert” leads all rookies with seven home runs.

Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole’s rehabs are going well and Cole is ready to begin a rehab assignment in the Minors.

Cole and Rodon have been eating well in during their rehab stints 👀🤌 pic.twitter.com/2FHonkvZWz

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) April 15, 2026

No jokes to be made here since this must have been made by AI and BaseballBros definitely broke a bro code here.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitcher for Today: Steven Matz (LH, TB, 24% rostered on Yahoo!)

Matz didn’t fare well against his former team (the Cardinals) in his season opener (4 ER in 5 IP), but was sharp in the two starts that followed (11 IP – 4 H – 3 ER – 4 BB – 15 K). His Rays are road favorites and the White Sox have struggled against southpaws this season (28.7% strikeout rate, 82 wRC+).

Other Options: Landen Roupp (RH, SF, 21% Y!) — He has pitched well this season, but the Reds offense is scary, so this actually a scary recommendation.

Pitchers for Tomorrow: Lance McCullers Jr. (RH, HOU, 24% Y!) — Pitched a gem in his only home start (1 ER, 9 K in 7 IP) and he’s back home to face a Cardinals offense that can be dominated if Jordan Walker gets the day off.

Other Options: Zack Littell (RH, WSH, 7%) — He’s a plus control and location guy, but this is more so a bet against the Giants.

Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun.

Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire in the form of a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.

Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out for a long-term view and not being stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.

This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to attempt to sell-high or buy-low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal or acquire, and how good their player and market valuation skills are. I’ll do my best to dig deep and present realistic opportunities.

Trading for Short Term Gains

Streaming hitters and pitchers based on an upcoming week’s set of matchups is a strategy that winning managers have utilized for decades — a two-start pitcher with increased velocity and strong recent outings, or a hot hitter moving up in his team’s batting order with Coors Field and Great American Ball Park on tap. Most fantasy baseball managers are aware that these types of players are ideal free agent or waiver pickups, especially if we have an easy drop. This is easier to execute in shallower (10- and 12-team leagues) because the likelihood of these targets being available is higher due to the larger free agent pool. It’s wise to plan ahead for the upcoming week, perhaps even for the week after that, if feasible.

What if I told you that you can optimize your roster for a longer-term outlook based on the next 3-4 weeks of the schedule? The following strategy can work via waivers/FAAB or trading, but it requires astute analysis and some extra digging. For this week, let’s frame it from the perspective of targeting hitters to buy low on. We can do this in the following manner:

1. Research each MLB team’s year-to-date pitching stats. I do this via FanGraphs’ TEAM stats.
2. Identify the outliers — the best and worst pitching rotations and bullpens
3. Review each MLB team’s set of matchups for the next 3-4 weeks
4. Match the outliers (5-6 best, 5-6 worst team pitching staffs) to the next 3-4 weeks of the schedule
5. If a team’s offense is scheduled to face several “bad” pitching staffs, hitters from those offenses are buy or add candidates, and vice versa

The May 2025 Chicago Cubs 

In early May last season, I ran through this process and identified that the Chicago Cubs had an extraordinarily advantageous set of matchups in the second half of the month. We had a small, yet reasonable sample size (first six weeks of the season) and their schedule really stood out like a sore thumb from May 16, 2025 – June 5, 2025: 3 vs. White Sox, 3 at Marlins, 3 at Reds, 3 vs. Rockies, 3 vs. Reds, 3 at Nationals.

Pitchers get better and worse, get promoted and demoted, and they get hurt. Things change, so this isn’t an exact science, but my assessment of a short-term matchup advantage for the hitters proved true. Over that three-week span, the Cubs went 14-4 and led the Majors with 112 runs scored (6.22 runs per game). The next closest were the Dodgers (102 runs) and the median for runs scored over that span was in the mid-70s. Core Cubs hitters were mostly rostered in all formats, but some were available in shallow-league waivers and there were certainly buying opportunities via trade. Five of their hitters batted .325 or higher over those three weeks (Suzuki .343, Tucker .339, Hoerner .338, Busch .333, Shaw .327) and Pete Crow-Armstrong went ham altogether (.293-17-5-23-8 in 80 PA). We may not be able to predict the future accurately, but with a basic understanding of the ‘buy-low/sell-high’ philosophy, perhaps we may have come to the conclusion that Crow-Armstrong could draw a huge (top-25 overall hitter) return in a 1-for-1 trade. Sure, PCA continued to produce at a high level for another month before his post-ASB crash-and-burn (.216-6 HR-8 SB after .265-25-27), but the idea of selling a hot, young player at his likely apex should have at least crossed our minds.

Every single hitter goes through waves and troughs throughout the season. In most cases, we ride these waves (leave them in the lineup), but sometimes we paddle through and sit it out (bench them). Once in a while, we have to trade in our reliable longboard for a newer, sleeker version that makes the ride smoother.

Upcoming Hitter Matchup Outliers

How can we confidently trust a three-week sample of pitching data to determine which team’s pitching will be good or bad over the next 3-4 weeks? A starter or reliever can have a bad outing at any time, and a team’s staff can over or underperform for a stretch, but certain things we can accept as true. Such as, the Mariners, Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Dodgers and Braves have good pitching and are generally tough matchups in a series. Or that the Nationals, Angels, Rockies and Cardinals are among the league’s worst and are generally plus matchups for opposing hitters in a series. Then there are slight adjustments we can make based on ballpark: Coors Field (Rockies) or Sutter Health Park (Athletics) are good for hitters; T-Mobile Park (Mariners) and Oracle Park (Giants) are not.

We can then go to the FanGraphs team pitching stats, sort through and do some digging. Do the Mariners still look like an elite staff and bullpen? Fourth-best WAR, best ERA, top-five xFIP, lowest walk rate: check. Do Nationals pitchers still appear to be a strong group to target hitters against? See for yourself:

Feel free to sort this table by different categories, click on various Stat Presets (Advanced, Batted Ball, Statcast) to review other metrics, split between starters and relievers (under Positional Split), or review 2025’s data.

Are the Astros (6.50 ERA, 6.0 BB/9) going to have the worst staff and be a target to stream hitters against in the short term? Probably. They’re down Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier (which isn’t saying much) and Josh Hader. Mike Burrows and Bryan Abreu have been horrendous, and they’ve recently added Cody Bolton, Colton Gordon and J.P. France into the mix. It might be a prettier picture in August, but for the next 3-4 weeks, it’s fair to consider them a “bad” staff. If Garrett Crochet isn’t hurt and bounces back, as most of us expect, we likely won’t see Red Sox pitchers among the bottom-five in two months from now.

Most of the pitching staffs closer to average are a “push” — they don’t move the needle to help identify outlier-good or outlier-bad matchups. We’re looking for a string of extremes. Here are a couple:

Great Matchups, next 3.5 weeks (Friday, April, 17 – Sunday, May 10)

Chicago White Sox

• 3 at Athletics
• 3 at Diamondbacks, 3 vs. Nationals
• 3 vs. Angels, 3 at Padres
• 3 at Angels, 3 vs. Mariners

Except for the Padres and Mariners, facing ATH, ARZ, WSN, LAA (x2) is as good as it gets. Perhaps slow-starter Miguel Vargas (1 HR, 180 BA, .222 BABIP, 14.5% BB) is a worthwhile trade target who can be acquired for a cheap return. Or perhaps we’re on the precipice of another Munetaka Murakami power heater. Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero are getting dropped in many deeper formats.

New York Mets

• 3 at Cubs
• 3 vs Twins, 3 vs. Rockies
• 3 vs. Nationals, 3 at Angels
• 3 at Rockies, 3 at Diamondbacks

If this six-series stretch after this weekend’s Cubs series doesn’t fix the Mets’ offense, probably nothing will (or at least until Juan Soto returns). As of today, every hitter except for Luis Robert Jr. and Francisco Alvarez is a potential buy-low candidate. You don’t have to be in the room to know your league-mate who drafted Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette is panicking.

Not-Great Matchups, next 3.5 weeks

St. Louis Cardinals

• 3 at Astros
• 3 at Marlins, 3 vs. Mariners
• 4 at Pirates, 3 vs. Dodgers
• 3 vs. Brewers, 4 at Padres

In exactly three weeks, there will be oodles of “I told you Jordan Walker stinks” tweets. The reality is that Walker is not as good as he’s been these first three weeks and isn’t as bad as he might be the next three weeks. Walker and his teammates will be facing some of the toughest rotations and bullpens in baseball — if he somehow doesn’t cool off, it would be a surprise. We’re not selling high on Walker just because of the next three weeks of matchups, but we should absolutely test the trade waters to see what we can get in return because this is the ideal window. Two weeks ago or two weeks from now, a Walker-for-Lindor offer would be scoffed at. Right now, the other manager might take it.

So, that’s a snapshot of one of the strategies I’ve used over the years for trades and free agent acquisitions. We often assess too much in terms of rest-of-season or the upcoming week. Going the extra mile to review metrics and preview schedules for extreme matchup outliers in a 3-4 week window can prove fruitful and provides small victories that can help add up into a fantasy league title come October.

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 3 Overview

Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker smashed five dingers last week and now leads the Majors in home runs (seven).

Oneil Cruz and Jakob Marsee each stole three bases in Week 3 games. Cruz swiped six total bags last week and enters Week 4 tied with Drake Baldwin atop the FanGraphs 12-team Player Rater ($41.7).

James Wood earned 12 hits and walked six times (only 4 Ks) in 28 plate appearances. He slashed .545/.655/1.091 last week. The Nationals are scheduled to play seven games in each of the next two weeks.

A few hitters with rough weeks: Mark Vientos (0-17), Michael Busch (1-20), Munetaka Murakami (1-20, 9 Ks), Adolis García (1-20, 8 Ks), and Josh Naylor (1-19), whose batting average is down to .102 and has no extra-base hits.

Last week’s saves leaders (three apiece) were Lucas Erceg and popular waiver add, Jakob Junis. Last week’s popular add, Bryan Baker, earned two saves but served up three earned runs in three innings.

Starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ryan Feltner gave up the most earned runs (10 each), though Scherzer pitched 4.1 innings and Feltner 9.1. Sandy Alcantara was roughed up by the Tigers (10 H, 7 ER in 6 IP) after three consecutive gems.

Of the 31 pitchers who drew two starts last week, five earned wins in both of their starts: Joe Ryan, Germán Márquez, Taj Bradley, Michael Wacha and José Soriano.

As we did last week, let’s review the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB), but let’s add in Yahoo’s top adds as well. Soriano is the early fantasy MVP and the top overall player on the Player Rater ($51.5).

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

Jorge Soler was added in 25% of Fantrax leagues. His roster percentage is only up to 68%, which seems low. A healthy Soler is a great source of power, though he’ll certainly do his part to drain our batting averages.

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Braves pitcher Didier Fuentes was awesome in spring training (13 IP, 1 ER, 18:1 K:BB) and has 15 strikeouts with five walks and one run allowed in two Triple-A starts. He drew the highest average winning bid among SPs in NFBC OCs ($52) though is still available in 3% of leagues. With Reynaldo Lopez’s suspension shortened and him slated to start on Tuesday, the Braves won’t need another starter until the following week. Those who acquired Fuentes hope that he joins the rotation then.

Relievers

Jakob Junis was the top target among relievers this weekend. He popped onto our radars on Monday when he earned a save. He did it again on Tuesday and once more Sunday, just a few hours ahead of Sunday evening’s FAAB deadline. Robert Garcia and Chris Martin were supposed to be the ninth-inning co-committee, but they played themselves out of future opportunities, at least for now. Righty Cole Winn and lefty Jacob Latz (converted reliever) have moved up in the hierarchy as late-inning setup men. Winn locked down his first career save on Wednesday and a hold on Sunday. Winn hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances and sports a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. He has better stuff than Junis, but Junis has superb control (6% career walk rate) and is a dependable veteran who appears to be extending job security in this new role. He spent the bulk of his career as a starter. Over the last two seasons, as a reliever with the Giants and Guardians, Junis owns a 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 20.1% K and 4.9% BB.

Riley O’Brien (added in 17% of Fantrax leagues) has been stellar this season — 4 SV, 1 W, 1.41 ERA (2.05 xFIP), 8 K with no walks or earned runs allowed in eight appearances.

Joel Kuhnel is a new face in the fantasy sphere and is potentially in the mix for save chances with the Athletics. He closed out Sunday’s contest (1-0 over the Mets), his second save of the season. Mark Leiter Jr. (Tuesday, March 31) and Hogan Harris (Thursday, April 9) are the only other relievers to earn saves for the A’s so far. Kuhnel is 31 years old and a big guy (6’5”, 290) who has one full season in the Majors (6.36 ERA in 58 IP with the Reds in 2022), but has otherwise toiled in the Minors for different organizations. Kuhnel and Harris (the bullpen’s only lefty) will likely share save opps in the short term. Justin Sterner is their most consistent reliever since 2025 (his rookie season) and could get into the mix of save chances soon. Kuhnel has more fantasy value in 15-team leagues and can be ignored in 10/12-teamers for now, especially with the A’s playing at home all week.

Starting Pitchers

Jeffrey Springs is almost three years removed from his Tommy John surgery. A converted starter, Springs had a dominant 2022 season (2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 26%K, 5.6% BB in 135.1 IP) before his 2023 season ended abruptly. He joined the A’s in 2025 and managed a 4.11 ERA (4.60 SIERA) in 171 innings, though his strikeout rate dipped under 20% for the first time. His arsenal isn’t overpowering, but his changeup is top-notch and he has always exhibited above-average control. Springs has pitched well through three starts (1.47, 0.76) though it won’t be all sunshine and rainbows this season. Springs has been lucky (.170 BABIP, 3.91 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and negative regression will undoubtedly rear its ugly head — specifically, in the 100+ degree Sacramento weather this summer. Springs hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season (1.47 HR/9 last season). He is slated to make his second and third home starts of the season this week, against the Rangers and White Sox. Springs could be a mainstay on 12-team rosters and maintain a sub-4.00 ERA for the season.

Joey Cantillo’s breakout doesn’t seem to be appreciated by the Yahoo community (only 38% rostered). The crafty lefty with the occasional case of the location yips has 20 strikeouts and seven walks through his first three starts (14.2 IP). His cutter and changeup are plus offerings. I don’t foresee Cantillo having issues maintaining his rotation spot with the Guardians, but I can’t say the same about a sub-10% walk rate.

Giants starter Landen Roupp is off to a nice start, and perhaps even a bit unlucky (.304 BABIP, 3.24 ERA vs. 2.67 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA). It’s unlikely that Roupp will end the season with an ERA better than 3.50, but it’s certainly possible. Roupp often issued too many free passes in his starts last season, so it’s nice to see his walk rate down (from 9.5% to 7.2%), albeit just three starts. He will likely have his hands full in the next two weeks. He is expected to face the Reds in Great American Ball Park on Wednesday and is lined up in the following week to face the Dodgers, at home.

Javier Assad may be one-and-done after this start in Philadelphia if Matthew Boyd remains on track to return this weekend.

Hitters

Nasim Nuñez is all speed and nothing else. Make sure you only add him on squads where you don’t already have Chandler Simpson or José Caballero.

Angel Martínez had an incredible week — 13-42, 7 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 4 SB, .310/.383/.452. He mostly starts and bats first or second against left-handed pitchers, but earned a start against a righty on Friday. Not sure we can call him an everyday player yet, so let’s see if he earns some starts against righties this week. When we added Martínez over the weekend, the Guardians were slated to face up 4 LHPs. That has since changed with the Orioles optioning lefty starter Cade Povich in favor of ol’ gascan righty, Dean Kremer. The Guardians may only square off against two lefty starters now.

Diamondbacks rookie Jose Fernandez has started six straight games, at first base, third base, and designated hitter. He has earned playing time with somewhat steady production and because of injuries to Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana. By the way, Fernandez was seven years old when Santana made him Major League debut.

Drop of the Week

It may be time to move on from Astros interim closer Bryan Abreu. Abreu did not allow a run in his appearance on Sunday, the first time in seven tries. His velocity drop is worrisome, lefty Bryan King has been exceptional, and Josh Hader may be back before the end of the month.

“New uni, who’s this?”

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Another episode of “Who’s Save Is It Anyway” featuring the Minnesota Twins bullpen, which was featured in Thursday’s Roto Riteup. This time it was Eric Orze, a 28-year-old righty with one season of Major League experience. This was actually Orze’s fourth career save. He earned three with the Tampa Bay Rays in his rookie year. This is a bullpen to stay away from, even in the deepest of formats. Want more proof?

In the year 2026, the Twins managed to put together a bullpen where nobody throws over 94. Feels impossible. pic.twitter.com/SEBcNSrLjX

— Kyle Weinmeyer (@Kyleweinmeyer) April 9, 2026

Another ugly bullpen can be found over on the west coast. Thursday’s save was brought to you by Hogan Harris, the Athletics top southpaw. You might remember Harris from his professional debut:

Hogan Harris is the first pitcher to allow 5+ walks and 5+ runs while pitching less than an inning in his MLB debut since June 10, 1944, when the Reds' Joe Nuxhall did so while becoming the youngest player to appear in an MLB game (15 years, 316 days).

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) April 15, 2023

Harris and Justin Sterner were the only late-round A’s bullpen fliers who NFBC Main Event managers drafted, though both have since been dropped by most of those teams. They remain the two best options for ninth-inning work and I foresee Sterner pulling away as the primary guy by May. Sterner doesn’t throw hard (93-94 mph fastball), but he has the best arsenal in that bullpen. The Stuff+ model graded his slider out at 114 last season.

Quick Hits

Colorado Rockies slugger Hunter Goodman left Thursday’s tilt in the sixth inning after getting hit in the hand by a Randy Vásquez fastball. His finger was bleeding, but hopefully not broken. We will find out today.

Some fantasy squad reinforcements are on the way today! Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki should be activated from the IL today and the Yankees will promote Luis Gil to start in Tampa against the Rays. Gil should then make his second start of the season against the Angels next week.

Various News and Notes

What a fabulous outing by White Sox pitcher Anthony Kay on Thursday!

Kay mowed down six Royals hitters, throwing 100 pitches for 5.2 scoreless innings. It was his first win the Majors since 2021. Kay spent the last two seasons in the NPB in Japan. He posted impressive ratios (1.74 ERA, 0.98) in 24 starts for the Yokohama DeNA Baystars last season.

As the kids and obnoxious engagement farmers on Twitter would say, Ryan Weathers is “back”! After two rough starts to open the season, he dominated the A’s on Thursday — 8 IP – 7 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 7 K. The other starter in that game was lefty Jeffrey Springs. He had a no-hitter going until the seventh inning when Ben Rice delivered a single to right field. This was Springs’ second consecutive quality start, as he dominated the Astros with seven strikeouts and just one run allowed last Friday. Springs lines up for two home starts next week, against the Rangers and White Sox.

Sal Stewart is a rookie on a mission. He swatted his fourth dinger of the season off Marlins righty, Max Meyer.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitcher for Today: Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (20% on Yahoo)

Listen, vanilla is a good flavor! Patrick doesn’t have the hottest stuff, nor is he a fireballer, but he often gets the job done. He should handle business at home on Friday against the Nationals where the Brewers should be hefty favorites.

Other Options: Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves (48%)

If you give me a choice between 1) 2026 Elder Breakout and 2) 2026 Elder Inevitable Implosion, I’ll take the latter. Though that time is not yet here. It’ll happen when we’ve fully bought into his transformation, then it’s BOOM. This is a streamable home start against a vanilla Guardians offense (it really is a good flavor).

Pitcher for Tomorrow: Eric Lauer 라우어, Toronto Blue Jays (27%)

Lauer didn’t pitch well last weekend, but he had an excuse — he was sick and not fully recovered. This outing should be a smoother one as he faces a Twins offense that already has 210 plate appearances against lefties and have struggled against them (.082 ISO, 14.3% K).

Other Options: None

Saturday’s slate is littered with team aces taking their turns in the rotation, so there aren’t many sub-50% rostered streamers, and none worth recommending.

Four homers in his last five games. Mama, there goes that man.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

Closer Chaos

Another episode of “Who’s Save Is It Anyway?” for the Twins as this time it’s lefty Kody Funderburk. There has been little clarity on ninth inning duties in Minnesota all winter and so far this spring. Before Opening Day, it was presumed to be a two-man committee with Cole Sands and Taylor Rogers. Four different closers have closed games out for the Twins. It was Sands that first Saturday, then three consecutive ones in this series against the Tigers: Cody Laweryson (Monday), Justin Topa (Tuesday), and Funderburk (Wednesday). Heading into Wednesday’s contest, their bullpen had the AL’s highest walk rate (15%). This might just be the murkiest bullpen in the Majors.

There may be light at the end of the tunnel in Arlington, but it might take some time to see it. Preseason plans of a Robert Garcia (LHP) and Chris Martin (RHP) committee have fallen to the wayside. Garcia has yet to receive a save chance and Martin blew his only one. Veteran southpaw Tyler Alexander earned the first two of the season last week, but he’s a middle reliever. Lefty Jacob Latz was booted from the rotation after one start, ceding to Kumar Rocker. Latz hasn’t allowed a hit in four appearances (five innings) and could move his way up the leverage ladder as the top lefty ahead of Garcia soon.

Our #oldfriend Jakob Junis shocked the fantasy world by converting a save opportunity on Monday and again on Tuesday. A below average starter in Kansas City from 2017-2022, Junis slowly shifted to relief work with the Giants from 2022-2024, and fully converted with the Guardians in 2025, producing a 2.97 ERA despite a 4.21 xFIP.  Junis doesn’t fit the profile of a typical closer. He’s primarily a slider/changeup guy with a subpar swinging-strike rate, but Junis does has plus control (career 6% walk rate). With Junis unavailable on Wednesday, the Rangers’ 15th overall draft selection in 2018 Cole Winn stepped in to earn the save against the Mariners. Winn fits the archetype of a traditional closer more than Junis and has five pitch types at his disposal, most notably a sweet sinker. I’m biased here as I picked up Winn for $5 ($1,000 budget) in my Main Event on Sunday. I think Winn steps in here as the sole guy before end of April.

Quick Hits

Zach Eflin received a second opinion on his right elbow earlier this week and it matched the first opinion. Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on Thursday and will be out until sometime next summer.

Cubs outfielder Ian Happ missed two games tending to a bruised heel. The Cubs are off on Thursday and manager Craig Counsell expects Happ to return to the lineup on Friday when they kick off their home series against the Pirates.

The Astros rotation continues to take hits. A few days after losing Hunter Brown to a strained shoulder for a few weeks, Cristian Javier was removed from Wednesday’s game after one inning due to right shoulder tightness. The Astros need a starter for Sunday. Though many of us are pining for Spencer Arrighetti, he is expected to start at Triple-A Sugar Land today. Perhaps they call Arrighetti up next week to keep him on regular rest and have Cody Bolton and Ryan Weiss 와이스 manage the bulk of Sunday’s innings.

Various News and Notes

Byron Buxton might finally be waking from his early-season slumber. Before Wednesday’s contest, he was slashing .158/.233/.263 with 1 RBI and no home runs. Buxton went 3-for-4 with three runs against the Tigers on Wednesday, his third consecutive day as the leadoff man for the Twins after mostly batting second.

The Rockies pulled off a minor miracle as they swept the hottest team in baseball, the Astros. It was their first series sweep since early June of last season and their fourth win in a row. That Barney mink is looking fresh.

Rockies sweep the Astros!

It's Colorado's first sweep since last June 2-4 in Miami pic.twitter.com/bjxD5jrPhJ

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 8, 2026

Troy Johnston went 6-for-14 with a homer, four runs and three RBIs in the series.

The Keep Joe Boyle in the Rotation Fan Club was quiet yesterday as Boyle finally met his match in the form of “slugger” Nico Hoerner and the Cubbies.

It was a leadoff shot — Hoerner’s first of the season. Boyle lasted 4.1 frames, serving up five earned runs (six unearned) and walked three batters.

Streaming Pitchers

Pitcher for Today: Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres (40% on Yahoo)

The Rockies’ mountain high will take a tumble as they leave that lovely Denver elevation behind for sunny San Diego and a date with a resurrected Vásquez. Vásquez showed improvement in the second half of last season, had a strong spring training, and has been lights out in his first two starts. His fastball velo is up a tick from last season and though it’s the most microscopic of sample sizes, Vásquez’s swinging-strike rate through two games is 15.5%. His career mark prior was 7.2%.

Other Options: None

Perhaps Rhett Lowder (20%) has a strong follow-up outing against the Marlins in Miami, but I can’t soundly recommend it. Same for Arizona lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (16%) and his 0.00 ERA, against the Mets.

Pitcher for Tomorrow: Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (19%)

Listen, vanilla is a good flavor! Patrick doesn’t have the hottest stuff, nor is he a fireballer, but he often gets the job done. He should handle business at home on Friday against the Nationals where the Brewers should be hefty favorites.

Other Options: Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves (46%)

If you give me a choice between 1) 2026 Elder Breakout and 2) 2026 Elder Inevitable Implosion, I’ll take the latter. Though that time is not yet here. It’ll happen when we’ve fully bought into his transformation, then it’s BOOM. This is a streamable home start against a vanilla Guardians offense (it really is a good flavor).

Trades are the lifeblood of fantasy baseball home leagues. The conversations around them help keep us connected and engaged, and make our league more fun. Striking deals isn’t always easy. There are often hurt feelings around lopsided proposals, league-mates who value players differently, and that one guy who wants to veto everything. We can improve our fantasy squads with the waiver wire, but our collective hit rates are low. Quite often, those pickups backfire in the form of a hitter’s cold streak or a pitcher’s blowup, which inevitably leads to dropping the player. The one facet we have control of in home leagues is trading.

Managers are often emotionally tied to certain players – specifically, missed draft targets or players from their favorite baseball team. Also, we’re not all great at zooming out for a long-term view and not being stuck in the moment. Good analysis can be washed away by recency bias and small sample sizes. No one can force us to make a deal, so it’s the one element of the game we have some control over and can use proper value assessment and negotiation techniques to our advantage.

This column will recommend hitters and pitchers to attempt to sell-high or buy-low, and touch on trade strategies. No two leagues or two managers are the same. You know your league-mates best: what kind of deal they’ll scoff at, which player type they’re willing to deal or acquire, and how good their player and market valuation skills are. I’ll do my best to dig deep and present realistic opportunities.

April is a good time to capitalize on the overreaction and panic of our league-mates.

Here is a trade scenario to consider that could perhaps spawn ideas about similar players:

Offer: Matthew Liberatore (SP, STL), Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, ARZ)

Target: Nathan Eovaldi (SP, TEX), Max Meyer (SP, MIA)

Now is a good time to explore offers for Liberatore and E-Rod. Both are lefties on below-average teams. Both are off to good starts. It is unlikely that either will have a higher market value this season than they do now.

Liberatore is a fine pitcher. He’s a former first-round draft pick of the Rays (2018) who spent time as both a reliever and starter until the Cardinals stretched him out last spring so that he could be part of their rotation. Liberatore had an excellent stretch over the first two months of the season. In his first 11 starts, Liberatore produced a 3.08 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an impressive 3.5% walk rate, and his strikeout rate hovered at 21.4%. His walk rate normalized closer to league average (8%) over the final four months, but Liberatore had several blow-up starts and those last 18 starts didn’t go as well — a 5.05 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, as well as a K-rate dip to 17%.

Through his first two games this season, the ace of the Cards rotation has allowed two runs (both solo homers), with three walks and four punchouts in 11 innings. We shouldn’t fall victim to small sampleitis, but it’s worth noting that the damage could have been worse in those starts when we consider his strand rate (100%), BABIP (.216), and differential in ERA (1.64) and xFIP (5.28). The big question: does someone in our league like him and consider him “safe”? The one way to find out is by trade-fishing.

Eduardo Rodriguez has had two noteworthy seasons — with the Red Sox in 2019 (203.1 IP, 25% K, 3.81 ERA) and in 2023 with the Tigers (152.2 IP, 23% K, 3.30 ERA). The rest of his career has been mostly unremarkable and his WHIP (career 1.33) is usually detrimental to fantasy teams. In deeper leagues (15-teamers and above), where starting pitching options are thin, E-Rod might have slight appeal to someone in your league (perhaps a Red Sox fan) on name recognition alone. He looked great in his season debut where he threw five scoreless innings with five punchouts and two walks against a stacked Dodgers offense. Five days later, he followed up with seven strong innings with no runs allowed against the Braves. Most notable in those first two starts was his pitch mix. Typically a 44-47% four-seam guy, Rodriguez threw his fastball just 28% of the time in those first two starts, while significantly increasing his changeup usage (from 21% since 2024 to 35% in 2026). Rodriguez’s changeup was an effective pitch in his two best seasons, but it’s been an inconsistent offering of his over the course of his career. His sinkers and cutters pop from time to time, but overall, E-Rod’s pitch mix and effectiveness has been all over the map — simply too much tinkering.

Your league-mates are probably too smart to buy high on an inconsistent pitcher on a bad team just because he has a 0.00 ERA through two starts, but it sure is worth exploring. His next four starts are against the Mets (road), Orioles (home), White Sox (home), Brewers (road). Since the Diamondbacks play six, five and six games the next three weeks, there are no two-start weeks on the horizon for him unless there’s a rotation shift or some rainouts.

The biggest reasons to shop Liberatore and Rodriguez is because their ratios are currently far below where they’ll end up at and because we want as few of the below-average swing-and-miss arms on our roster as possible. Liberatore’s career swinging-strike rate is 9.2% (8.9% last season) and Rodriguez’s is 10.4% (under nine percent since 2024).

It’s unlikely that another manager will give up Nathan Eovaldi or Max Meyer in a 1-for-1 deal for Liberatore or Rodriguez, but it’s not a far-fetched starting point. Most of our friends can read through attempts of fantasy baseball trade subterfuge. We’re not going to start the conversation with “let me take Eovaldi off your hands and I’ll give you E-Rod, who hasn’t given up a run all season.” But we should take any opportunity to subtly point things out that accentuate the player you’re offering or criticizes the player you’re targeting. In fact, it doesn’t hurt do the opposite, perhaps with a little bit of BYAF (But You Are Free), a persuasion technique that reinforces a person’s autonomy:

“Eovaldi never plays a full season and is getting old, but I’m willing to take on the risk. It’s up to you, of course.”

It’s undoubtedly been a rough start for Eovaldi. In his first outing, he gave up a two-run shot to Kyle Schwarber in the first inning and a three-run bomb to Alec Bohm in the fifth before getting pulled with two outs in the fifth. He struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter. His second start, against the Orioles, went poorly — 4 IP – 8 H – 6 ER – 3 BB – 5 K. There are no issues with his velocity — he’s still hitting 94-95 mph with his four-seamer. In fact, he threw it less than 14% of the time while raising his split-finger usage from 31% to 37%. His four-seamer is the pitch most of the damage has come on, and it’s likely he will continue relying primarily on his split-finger, curveball and cutter. He has a .481 BABIP and 54.1% strand rate in those two starts — definitely a touch unlucky.

Let’s not forget that the man maintained a 1.73 ERA (3.02 SIERA) and 0.85 WHIP over 22 starts last season. He hasn’t exactly been the bastion of health, but Ol’ Nate has averaged nearly 27 starts over his last five seasons. Moreover, he is typically an elite control guy, boasting a 6.5% career walk rate (since 2011!) and sported a 4.2% mark last season. A low-walk veteran with a 11+ ERA and 2+ WHIP is the exact type of pitcher we target in trades now.

The person with Max Meyer might currently be experiencing a case of “man, I fell for the hype; this guy stinks.” Meyer has allowed five runs and has walked five batters through his first two starts. On the flip side, he has 11 strikeouts (9.2 innings) with a 14.1% SwStr, his velocity is intact, and he continues to throw his patented slider at an average of one out of every three pitches. He calls a pitchers’ park home and is talented enough to beat out his ratio projections, which peg him in the 4.20-4.40 (ERA) and 1.30-1.35 (WHIP) range. Could you pull off Meyer for Liberatore or Rodriguez straight up? Probably not, but we don’t get what we want in life without asking.

The managers who win pitcher trades are the ones digging in the trenches. The ones who do a deep dive into peripherals, underlying metrics, velocity changes, pitch mix adjustments and play logs of past outings. Remember that a 1-for-1 offer out of the blue will usually give away your intent, so try to hide your true goal in a smaller, multi-player deal. It’s easier to trade with friends or league-mates you already have baseball or trade conversations with, and you can play a bit of the long-game by planting seeds in conversations that could help you get the deal you’d like to get done.

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend.

Fantasy baseball managers know that our game is the ultimate test of grit, grind, tenacity, and patience. Unlike fantasy football, where league titles can be won with minimal in-season activity, fantasy baseball leagues require incessant attention and activity. Particularly when it comes to free agent adds and drops. Real-life baseball managers are constantly adjusting batting orders, players are frequently optioned to and promoted from the Minor Leagues, and injuries occur almost daily. There’s no resting on our laurels. We must always stay vigilant with league news and notes and remain active on the waiver wire if we want to win our leagues.

Every week, I’ll dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 2 Overview

The hottest hitters of the week were Andy Pages (.583 – 2 HR – 7 RBI), Yordan Alvarez (.471-3-8), Oneil Cruz (.360-4-10), Ben Rice (.421-3-9), CJ Abrams (.333-3-10) and Drake Baldwin (.310-2-10). Luisangel Acuña was the only player with four stolen bases. Four consensus first round hitters have yet to hit a home run (Bobby Witt Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr.). Second-rounders Cal Raleigh and Nick Kurtz have yet to homer as well. It’s a long season, they will be alright. Of the 30 starting pitchers who made two starts in Week 2, 10% (three) earned two wins – Clay Holmes, Michael Soroka and Davis Martin. I’ve tracked two-start pitcher data the last few seasons, and that 10% rate is on par with average week over the last three seasons, usually hovering between 6% and 18% most weeks. Be wary about chasing wins with below-average starting pitchers this early in the season. As the data shows, locking in two wins without crushing the ratios is hard enough for above-average starters. Be particularly careful with mediocre or below-average 2x SPs whose first start is on a Tuesday. Sometimes weather will push their start back until the following week. Occasionally, those pitchers are pulled out of the rotation or demoted if they had a rough first start. Oftentimes, that is for the better to avoid further fantasy ERA/WHIP damage.

As we did last week, let’s review the top trending acquisitions for Fantrax (waivers) and the NFBC 12-team OC (blind bid FAAB).

Roster % is the current percentage of leagues rostering the player; +/-  is the percentage of leagues the player was added in the previous week

% Added is the percentage of leagues that added the player; AWB stands for average winning bid

Jordan Walker has been a disappointment since his rookie season. Despite positive offseason reports about adjustments made at Driveline, Walker struggled in spring training, and was mostly overlooked by NFBC 12-team drafters. I won’t take a victory lap after 10 days, but I would like to mention that Walker is one of my highest rostered hitters this season. Walker was the only player with a triple-digit AWB. Relievers Riley O’Brien and Gregory Soto, and Seattle’s SP5 Emerson Hancock came close. Hancock is now rostered in each of the 240 OCs. O’Brien and Soto are still available in two percent of leagues.

Relievers

It’s the second week in a row where we’re discussing the Cardinals bullpen. Hopefully, it will be the last time. Riley O’Brien had the highest ADP this winter and spring among Cardinals relievers, though a calf injury kept from joining South Korea for the WBC and his ADP began to drop while the ADPs of JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson rose. Veteran Ryne Stanek snagged the first opportunity and closed the game out, though he walked three batters. He then stumbled in his second chance two days later, and O’Brien saved the day. Last week, O’Brien further distanced himself from the pack with three clean innings in three appearances, with two saves. Meanwhile, Matt Svanson has struggled mightily in middle relief. JoJo Romero would like step up for the occasional save opportunity when a southpaw is needed.

Gregory Soto is well known for throwing heat. He saved 30 games for the Tigers in 2022 and has spent the last few seasons as a lefty setup man who walks opposing batters at an above-average clip (over 10%). Last Tuesday, assumed Pirates closer Dennis Santana pitched the eighth inning and Soto handled the ninth, though the Pirates scored two runs in the top of the ninth, so it wasn’t a save opportunity. The Pirates beat the Reds 8-3 again on Wednesday. Santana didn’t make an appearance, but Soto did so again in the ninth; again it wasn’t a save opportunity since the Pirates scored four in the ninth. A similar setup occurred on Friday as Santana pitched a clean eighth and Soto came in to close out the Orioles in the ninth, though he gave up a solo shot to Gunnar Henderson. The Pirates continued their late-game heroics on Saturday. With the game tied 3-3 going into the ninth, Santana stepped in to pitch a clean ninth, then Nick Yorke walked it off with a double to give Santana the win. Soto is the more dynamic of the two, but is less stable because of history with free passes. It’s possible Soto earns more opportunities going forward, though it will likely remain a committee for now. The only thing that can hold Soto running away with the gig is Soto himself.

Paul Sewald was picked up in 21% of Fantrax leagues. Oddly, the Diamondbacks clear-as-day closer is only rostered in 61% of leagues, likely because of the inclusion of 10-teamers, points leagues, and roto leagues where holds are used in addition to saves. Tyler Alexander was scooped up in many leagues, though he is more of a spec-add. He has earned the Rangers only two saves, but is not the clear ninth-inning man. This was originally expected to be a two-man committee with lefty Robert Garcia and righty Chris Martin. Garcia hasn’t been great and Martin has been awful. Martin may move into a setup role, though the Rangers do still need a righty to step up. Perhaps that will be fireballer Cole Winn, who I picked up for $5 in a 15-team league on Sunday. Mark Leiter Jr. might be the first guy dropped from NFBC leagues next week if his struggles continue. He blew the save on Saturday and isn’t even locked into the A’s job. Bryan Baker hasn’t earned a save for the Rays yet, but has been pitching in the highest-leverage spots with Garrett Cleavinger on IL and Griffin Jax struggling.

Starting Pitchers

Hancock, Randy Vásquez and Lance McCullers Jr. were three of the most popular SP acquisitions of the weekend. Hancock followed up his masterful Opening Weekend performance (nine punchouts in six hitless innings) with a solid outing (6.2 IP – 6 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 5 K) on Saturday, though the Mariners were robbed of three home runs by Angels Jo Adell and lost 1-0. Hancock lines up for a home start (Astros) this week, then a road start against the Padres. He should be quickly snagged in any leagues where he is available, 10-teamers included.

Randy Vásquez had some offseason buzz in deeper formats despite a ridiculously low 15% career walk rate. Folks paying attention may have noticed a slight velocity bump from Vásquez this spring, which he parlayed into two six-inning gems — an 11:4 K:BB with just eight hits and one earned run allowed against the Tigers at home and the Red Sox in Fenway. He has been throwing his four-seam fastball, sinker and slider 1-2 mph faster than last season and boasts an impressive 15.5% swinging-strike rate, albeit in a two-start sample. He now gets the pleasure of facing the Rockies at home, who will be heading over to San Diego from the high elevation of Denver.

The Bryce Elder Experience returns for another tour, likely to yet again tease us before destroying our ratios. Elder had a few good starts last season, but the overall body of work was horrific. His 5.30 ERA ranked sixth-worst among starting pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched. Could this turn into his breakout tour? His pitch mix and velocity remains the same and there’s nothing in his profile that portends massive improvement. He threw six scoreless against the A’s in his first start and seven scoreless with eight punchouts in Arizona on Saturday. It’s enough to lure us into starting him at home against the Guardians this week. Color me dubious, nevertheless.

Hitters

Among the top hitter adds on Fantrax, Mauricio Dubón, Joey Wiemer and Kyle Isbel feel like the ones most likely to find their way back to the free agent pool next week. Dubón has some appeal in deeper formats since he’s on a great offense and offers several positions of eligibility (on Fantrax he’s 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Wiemer had a hot start but he’s a short-side platoon bat and is a massive batting average drag. Isbel and his bottom-of-the-order crew have been producing the bulk of the runs over the last week, but it’s only a matter of days before the production shifts to the top and the middle of the Royals lineup.

Rookie infielder Jose Fernandez has cooled off since his 2-HR Major League debut last week, though with Carlos Santana banged up, Fernandez should earn more playing time going forward. In his first four career starts, he has already played first base, third base and DH. Fernandez is shortstop eligible in NFBC and would need to play 10 games at first or third to earn that eligibility. The Diamondbacks have some tough matchups this week facing the Mets and the Phillies.

Mark Vientos and TJ Rumfield are the two most intriguing and potentially valuable hitter acquisitions of the week. Vientos is off to a hot start, hitting .476 in 23 plate appearances. He is playing every day since Jorge Polanco is playing through an Achilles issue and is not ready to play the field yet. The Mets will have to get creative when Polanco can play first base again, but Polanco never had before this season and we don’t know if they’ll revert to their preseason plan. Rumfield isn’t hitting the ball hard (84.3 EV, 32% HH), but he is slashing .345/.406/.586 with two dingers and has the hold on the strong-side platoon at first base. He is a stronger stream option with the Rockies expected to face seven righties this week.

Drop of the Week

It’s hard to imagine Roki Sasaki sticking in the Dodgers rotation much longer after his shaky outing against the lowly Nationals on Sunday (6 ER, 3 BB in 5 IP). Sasaki’s four-seam fastball has averaged 97 mph, but it’s generated a 20% whiff rate and a measly 5.6% strikeout rate. Between his quotes and body language, it is clear that he lacks confidence on the mound. Manager Dave Roberts has been extremely patient throughout Sasaki’s rough spring, but a little reset in the minors or a trip to the minors may be in the cards. There are too many terrific alternatives available in 12-team leagues to continue to ride the Sasaki train, at least for now.