The Trade Desk: 2 Up, 2 Down

Pulling off trades in our fantasy baseball leagues can be difficult. We usually know our league-mates well, and they often know our true tendencies and intentions, but that shouldn’t stop us from engaging. We should be active with trade conversations to improve our rosters in our quest for league titles. This weekly column will recommend hitters and pitchers to try selling high or buying low on, and I’ll try to present realistic opportunities. Below are two players to target in trades and two to consider dealing.

Trade Away

Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox

Rafaela is one of those hitters I could never understand the hype and excitement about. He has always struck me as more of a stat accumulator in the mold of Ozzie Albies and Ezequiel Tovar, rather than a fantasy asset with massive upside. Rafaela being drafted in the 100-120 ADP range this preseason didn’t jive with my rankings and projections, especially since he was slated to hit in the bottom third of the Boston Red Sox lineup, which would presumably limit R/RBI production. A fantasy player from the New England area will usually have a soft spot (bias) for Red Sox hitters. Many folks I’ve talked to at live fantasy baseball events seem to be drawn by some allure that I don’t see. He’s fun to watch, he’s excellent defensively, and he’s fast (91st percentile sprint speed). Otherwise, Rafaela is an undersized (5’10”, 165) athlete with subpar plate and power metrics. His walk rate has slightly improved over the past three seasons (2.6% to 4.8% to 5.4%), but is still well below league average. As are his hard-hit rate (36%, 27th percentile), barrel rate (6.6%, 33rd), and bat speed (69.8 mph, 16th). He has averaged 15.5 homers over the last two seasons and is currently on pace for the same in 2026. Rafaela is a career .250 hitter who is currently outperforming his expected average (.286 vs. .247) and it’s partially fueled by an outlier BABIP of .343. Due to injuries to Roman Anthony and Trevor Story, and the constant shuffling of Jarren Duran, Rafaela has earned the opportunity to bat in a prime spot in the order, second. The Red Sox don’t have a prototypical leadoff man who is healthy now, and they’ve been using Quad-A backup catcher Mickey Gasper to bat first, though even Gasper is now hurt. Rafaela wouldn’t be sniffing the top third of the lineup if everyone were healthy. Moreover, the Red Sox have been abysmal this season and are very likely to be sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline. Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu aren’t going anywhere, but some of the key hitters around them might be. Will there really be that much value in hitting second long-term on a struggling offense that is missing key players and may trade others? Moreover, Rafaela makes poor running decisions when it comes to swiping bags. He has been caught stealing in six of 13 attempts this season and had a 72% success rate from 2023-2025.

Potential Returns: Nico Hoerner, Otto Lopez, Brandon Lowe, Travis Bazzana

Not everyone would agree to a 1-for-1 swap of Rafaela for one of the options above, but each of these is superior. Lopez’s batting average will surely regress, but perhaps not to the degree some expect. He is an elite contact-maker and a better fantasy option than Rafaela. Bazzana offers more overall fantasy upside, Lowe is the power upgrade option (sans the swipes), and Hoerner (.237 AVG) is an ideal buy-low candidate.

Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants

The Eldridge story has been a pleasant one. He’s been a key contributor to this impressive group of hitters who were the worst offense in baseball over the first month and have transformed into a top-five offense over the last month. A somewhat weak schedule against bottom-rung rotations and bullpens has certainly helped their cause, though credit should be given to the players themselves. Despite their offensive improvement, the Giants haven’t been winning enough ballgames, and are already 16.5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers. Rumors have already surfaced about key hitters in their offense (Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers) being dealt, which would immediately weaken the core lineup around their future “face of the team”, the young Mr. Eldridge. Eldridge has to be given credit for the phenomenal first month-plus of his Major League career. He rocks a 13.2% walk rate, with a .317/.405/.548 slash and has earned playing time against left-handed starters recently. The most impressive improvement is his reduction in strikeouts — from a 30-31% guy in the minors, to around 21% through his first 121 plate appearances (31 games). The 121 PAs are a very small sample and not indicative of being a “changed man”. Opposing pitchers will adjust and find his weak spots, and Eldridge will inevitably slump. Mix in the disadvantage of his home park with his inexperience, loss of veteran bats in the lineup, and more consistent losses, and it doesn’t add up to the massive breakout his current production is foreshadowing. Eldridge is a big, strong hitter who may be an All-Star and top 40 fantasy pick one day, and those are positives for keeper/dynasty league purposes, so he’s not a strong sell candidate there. In redraft leagues, we should consider getting ahead of troubled waters and look to upgrade for a hitter in a better offensive environment.

Potential Returns: Michael Busch, Yandy Díaz, Maikel Garcia

Trade For

Taylor Ward, Baltimore Orioles

There is something clearly not right with Ward. The veteran hitter who smashed 36 home runs last season and sported a 13.4% barrel rate the past two seasons has hit just three homers and has a 4.5% barrel rate in his first year with the Orioles. There doesn’t seem to be all that much to worry about when we glance under the power hood outside of his flyball rate drastically dropping from 48% in 2025 to 32% this season. His current 41.7% hard-hit rate isn’t far off from the past two seasons (42.7%, 42.3%), nor is his average exit velocity (90.1, 90.9 last two seasons vs. 89.7 this season). The most impressive improvement in Ward’s game this season is in his plate patience gains. He is one of just three hitters with a walk rate of 19% or higher (behind Nick Kurtz and Mike Trout). Moreover, Ward has cut his strikeouts down from 26.4% last year to 20.2% this year. Most importantly, he remains the Orioles’ leadoff hitter, in a key spot in front of Gunnar Henderson, through all his streaks and slumps. We of course hope that Henderson figures out and fixes whatever is ailing him this season. If and when it does, it will have a positive impact on Ward as well, no matter if Ward is hitting in front of him or behind him. The Orioles don’t have the best second-half strength of schedule. Though, in the two weeks leading up to the All-Star break, they’ll have a nice stretch — at LAA, vs. WSN, vs. CWS, at CIN. Let’s hope Ward and the O’s get the offense going to balance out some of their pitching and bullpen woes.

Potential Returns: Cole Carrigg, Kody Clemens, Kyle Stowers, Rafaela

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres

Machado’s struggles this season have been well documented, including some rough interactions with the media. He’s also clearly not very bright, standing against the very core of what FanGraphs and most successful professional sports organizations stand for:

"I just wish we can get the analytics out the way… Why are we creating these stats? I think that's the problem with baseball right now." -Manny Machado

(via @MartyCaswell) pic.twitter.com/224F7rAbGh

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 6, 2026

Sorry Machado fans, but I’m a lifelong Dodgers fan and utilize data analytics in my everyday work, so it’s personal. That said, I’m able to separate emotions from analytics to tell you that there will be better days for Manny ahead, whether he starts paying attention to underlying metrics or not. After all, something’s been working for him all these years as one of baseball’s most consistent offensive producers of the last decade-plus. Machado is a career .275 hitter who has hit exactly .275 in each of his last two seasons and is currently at .175. Unless he is hiding an injury, we don’t have to be Eric Tulsky to recognize that there will be positive regression for Machado in that roto category. His xBA is over 50 points higher than his actual, and Machado’s .178 BABIP is the lowest among qualified hitters. It’s bad luck in a bad stretch, plain and simple. Machado has struggled to hit sinkers, sweepers, and sliders for the first time ever. I’m sure someone has told him that, and I’m also sure Machado doesn’t consider that to be analytics. Machado’s power metrics have slightly declined this season, but not all. His ISO is similar to last season (.183 vs. .185) as is his bat speed (74.4 vs. 74.5). He has 12 home runs and could reach last season’s 27 with a hot stretch. There are very few hitters with is track record of success who are better buy-low candidates.

Potential Returns: Colson Montgomery, Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt, Alex Bregman, Miguel Vargas (yes, I’d rather have Machado ROS than Vargas)