Big Kid Adds (Week 12)

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While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Cole Carrigg (9), Braden Montgomery (9), Blaze Jordan (9): These three, along with Denzer Guzman (more on him below), were just called up, and for fantasy teams needing an offensive boost, they were a priority add. It’s been several weeks since any “major” players showed up on the wire.  These guys got tons of coverage, so I’m not going to do a complete breakdown of each, but look at their major league performance and playing time.

Carrigg and Montgomery provided help in the outfield. In these five outfielder leagues, most teams have one hole in the outfield, with several teams needing multiple players. I’m not surprised at all at the three-figure bidding.

Carrigg was likely added by teams needing steals. In just 257 PA in AAA this year, he had 30 SB. He stole 46 bases last year. While he has just one stolen base in the majors, three of his seven hits have been home runs. He isn’t getting dominated by major league pitching (81% Contact%), and his .190 BABIP will regress upward, so better days are ahead.

While Montgomery’s walk-off home run debut was unforgettable, he’s showing a few holes in his game. He is only seeing 41% fastballs with his strikeout rate is 29% as teams feed him secondary pitches. He struggled to make contact at all minor levels with a sub-70% Contact% . Another issue is that his groundball rate, which hovered around 50% in the minors, increased to 58% in the majors. Additionally, he’s barely walking (4% GB%) after having double-digit walk rates across all minor league levels (15% BB% in AAA). We’ll see how long a guy with too many strikeouts, not enough walks, and hits everything on the ground makes in the majors (Garrett Mitchell clone).

As for Jordan, he’s currently qualified at first base but has five games at third base. For a profile, he has the combination of power and batting average with no speed. The corner infield spots are loaded with these players (e.g., Willson Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt, Alec Burleson, Freddie Freeman). He’s been holding his own, especially having a sub-10% K%. The only issue so far is a 68% GB%.

Max Muncy – West Sacramento version (7): Muncy started the season out on fire by batting .317/.349/.533 over his first 16 games. To get to those numbers, he needed a .472 BABIP to overpower his 35% K%. Since then, he has a .488 OPS (30% K%).

His overall stats have improved (.627 OPS) since coming off the IL, and he might have changed his approach. So far in seven games, he has an 86% Contact% (career 70% Contact%).

Muncy isn’t even at 350 career plate appearances, so he’s still finding himself.

Lawrence Butler (6): Since Brent Rooker went on the IL, Butler is on the strong side of an outfield platoon with Colby Thomas on the other side. It was a good week to stream Butler with six righties on the schedule.

The problem is that Butler has been horrible and is on a 600 PA pace of 12 HR/12 SB and .191 AVG. He’s not going to have those plate appearances by sitting against lefties. Besides his normal 27% K%, he has a career-high 50% GB%. High strikeout, high groundball hitters are rarely productive.

Heriberto Hernández (6): He is starting to see more playing time with seven starts in the last 10 games, and in five of the last six. He struggled to start the season, but his OPS has taken huge jumps each month (.474 OPS to .763 OPS to .917). Most of the gains have been power rated (.032 ISO to .188 ISO to .295 ISO). Four of his six home runs have been in June.

Now, he is trading off some contact rate for the power. His strikeout rate has increased from 19% K% to 27% to 35%. It’s tough to know his true talent, but in 448 PA over his career, he has 16 HR, 6 SB, and a .253 AVG. That’s a reasonable expectation for him.

Samad Taylor (6): With Ramón Laureano on the IL, Taylor started in nine of 10 games. A .478 BABIP has him at a .867 OPS, but once the BABIP regresses downward, so will his OPS.

Taylor will provide almost no power (career .074 ISO), but will steal a base. In 40 PA this season, he has 4 SB.

I expect the BABIP to regress, but he’s already banked his stats, so he should continue to get playing time. For teams needing steals, Taylor is a decent option.

Denzer Guzman (5): While Guzman is getting another run at the third base job, he has been unproductive at the plate (.265/.265/.324). No walks. Two extra base hits. A 46% GB%. The hope is that he’d hit for more power after having 12 HR (.235 ISO) in AAA. He seems to be a roster-but-bench.

Lane Thomas (5): The Royals face three lefties in the first half of the week, so Thomas would at least start against them. And now, he’s starting against righties with Vinnie Pasquantino on the IL and Jac Caglianone moving to first base.

One of his weaknesses is that he swing for the fences all the time (24 degLA), but doesn’t have the raw power to hit home runs. A 49% FB%, means he will hit a home run or be an easy out. His .267 BABIP is an improvement over last season’s .203 BABIP, but there isn’t reason to expect further gains. Over the last two seasons, he has a .222 AVG. He has stolen bases in the past (32 SB in 2024), but he is three for six on the base paths this year. I see his full-season production at ~15 HR and .220 AVG.

Starting Pitchers

Ian Seymour (6): I didn’t understand the demand for Seymour. It might have been based on no other starting pitcher options. He gets a start against Washington this weekend and then lines up for his next two starts against my pathetic Royals. The problem is that nothing, besides blind faith, points to Seymour being a good starter.

The 27-year-old and his 91 mph fastball have a 4.93 ERA (4.62 xFIP, 4.40 botERA) and 1.28 WHIP (4.5 BB/9). And he’s not improving as the season goes on. Since starting to stretch out over his last five appearances (2.2 IP/G), he has a 5.11 ERA (6.36 xFIP) and 1.46 WHIP (8.0 BB/9).

I don’t get where the demand came from. I looked to see if it was a single manager, but a wide variety added him. I’m going to chalk it up to “no other options”.

JR Ritchie (6): The “no other options” might also apply to Ritchie. The 23-year-old’s struggles come down to allowing too many walks. In AAA, he posted a 4.6 BB/9, and it’s up to a 5.3 BB/9 in the majors. The walks have led to a 4.54 ERA (4.85 xFIP, 5.14 botERA). And his 1.37 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.75 ERA.

With Ritchie’s history, it was no surprise he went out and allowed 5 ER, 5 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, and 4 K in 5 IP in his last start. While he is his team’s #1 rated arm with an overall top-100 prospect ranking, he’s not ready for the majors. His change and curve have a 13% SwStr%, so he has some pieces in place, but he needs to find the strike zone.

Javier Assad (6): Assad is taking his league-average skills in the rotation. So far this season, he has a 3.89 ERA (4.40 xFIP, 4.10 botERA), 1.00 WHIP (1.8 BB/9), and 5.1 K/9. It could be worse (see above). The low strikeout rate sticks out. While he struggles to strike guys out, he keeps the ball on the ground (45% GB%) and doesn’t give away many free passes.

He has some strikeout upside if he threw his sliders (13% SwStr%, 12% Usage) and change (15% SwStr%, 8% usage) more.

Relief Pitchers

Elvis Alvarado (7): Alvarado locked down two Saves, including one on Saturday, to get on everyone’s radar. While he has a 5.63 ERA, his ERA estimators are closer to 4.00. That’s not ideal for a closer, but he could get some Saves.

Tony Santillan (5): Santillan has also struggled this season (5.46 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, 4.68 botERA, 1.50 WHIP), but he has the team’s last two Saves, so he is now the closer. On the season, he has 4 Saves and 4 Blown Saves, so it could be a bumpy ride.