Rookie Check In: Four More Starting Pitchers to Buy, Sell, or Hold

We’re following up on last week’s article covering a few rookie starting pitchers. This feels like an outlier season with so many rookies making positive impacts on our fantasy baseball lineups. We’ll examine four more rookie-eligible starting pitchers, including a pair of teammates.  We’ll continue examining rookies throughout the season, including advice on whether to buy, sell, or hold in keeper and dynasty formats.

Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox

Throughout the off-season, there was debate about Payton Tolle or Connelly Early making the starting rotation to begin the season. Early made the Opening Day roster, with Tolle being called up in late April. I was higher on Tolle because of his electric fastball. Though the mustache bias may have helped his cause. Tolle was SP5 on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects list at No. 18 overall, ahead of Early (SP10, No. 38). 

When we say Tolle has an electric four-seam fastball, it’s not an exaggeration. Among pitchers with 50 innings since 2025, Tolle’s four-seam ranks third in four-seam Stuff+, behind Jared Koenig and Jacob Misiorowski. At 6-foot-6, Tolle generates elite extension (7.4 feet), ranking in the 98th percentile. That helps Tolle’s 96 mph four-seamer jump on hitters with 15-16 inches on induced vertical break and over nine arms of arm-side fade.

Furthermore, Tolle’s arm angle is lower by six degrees (27 degrees) vs. last year, bringing in his horizontal release 2.3 inches closer to his midline and lowering his vertical release by over one inch. That seems to have a direct impact on Tolle’s four-seam movement profile, coinciding with more horizontal movement. Typically, pitches that move more horizontally lead to weak contact and Tolle is seeing that against right-handed hitters (.195 wOBA, .209 xwOBA down from .372 wOBA, .339 xwOBA in 2025). 

Tolle added a sinker this season, throwing them 20.3% of the time to right-handed hitters. The Red Sox love sinkers, ranking second in team sinker usage, behind the Giants. Whle the sinker is generating grounders 51.2% of the time, right-handed hitters have been hitting the pitch to the tune of a .333 wOBA (.352 xwOBA). The sinker does give Tolle another fastball variation; one that fades over 17 inches and runs away from right-handed hitters. 

Besides Tolle’s four-seam, his curveball and changeup have consistently graded highly in Stuff+, eliciting whiffs and weak contact. However, let’s highlight Tolle’s cutter because of a slight increase in Stuff+ (101) and a significant jump in Location+ (103), up by 12 points. Tolle’s cutter movement profile remains similar, though his command grades suggest better locations. He is throwing his cutter over one inch lower and one inch more toward his glove side, as seen in the heatmaps below. 

Tolle’s cutter heatmaps in 2026 seem to suggest he might be throwing two different pitches or at least locating the pitch in two different spots with a purpose. Tolle is diversifying his arsenal against righties by throwing four pitches over 10% of the time in 2026, and the two cutter locations creates even more for hitters to think about. His cutter is generating weak contact against right-handed hitters in 2026 (.283 wOBA, .148 xwOBA). Guess what the Red Sox like throwing even more than sinkers? Cutters. So, we should have expected Tolle to develop the cutter from a stuff and location standpoint, since the Red Sox throw the most cutters in the league. 

Tolle’s results have been supported by his strikeout skills, stuff, and pitch development with the Red Sox. This isn’t the type of pitcher to sell. There might be some volatile moments for Tolle, but we’ve seen enough positive changes in the short term to buy in for most keeper and dynasty formats. 

Brandon Sproat, SP, Brewers

The results have been awful for Brandon Sproat, partly because of misfortune (69.7% strand rate and a 18.5% HR/FB rate). But Sproat’s strikeout skills haven’t been great either, with a 11.5% K-BB% and a 9.7% swinging-strike rate this season. His is throwing balls at a higher rate (38% ball rate in 2026, up from 34% in 2025). For context, Sproat had a 37% ball rate in the 2025 minor league season. Sproat’s slider (134) and curveball (117) have been graded as his best two pitches from a Stuff+ standpoint, but both elicit below-average to mediocre swinging-strike rates, around 13-14% 

Typically, breaking pitches like sweepers and curveballs are more effective against same-handed hitters. Though Sproat’s sweeper elicits whiffs (17.1% swinging-strike rate) against righties, it has given up a .331 wOBA (though a .278 xwOBA maybe points to more misfortune). Meanwhile, opposing right-handed hitters destroy Sproat’s curveball (1.192 wOBA, .741 xwOBA), suggesting there might be poor command. Unsurprisingly, Sproat’s sweeper (90) and curveball (71) have brutal Location+ grades.

Sproat’s command improved on his four-seamer (101 Location+) and sinker (102) after being under 80 on both pitches last year. He locates his four-seamer nearly two inches higher in the zone (1.8). Meanwhile, Sproat places his sinker over 2.6 inches lower in the zone and nearly two inches (1.9) closer toward the middle of the plate. That can be seen via the heatmaps from the four-seam and sinker in the visuals above and below. 

It’s been somewhat of a mixed bag for Sproat. On one hand, it seems like he should rely more upon his breaking pitches (sweeper and slider), though command is an issue. Sproat already mixes in 4-5 pitches against both sides of the plate, meaning he uses a diverse arsenal and might want to play with his pitch mix. It’s typically a good process to lean into pitchers with above-average stuff, but the early numbers point toward Sproat having mediocre stuff and below-average command. That might lead us to be cautious in buying low, and watch for command improvements – if he can locate better, he might unlike his stuff.

Connelly Early, SP, Red Sox

Unlike Soproat, Luck has been in Connelly Early’s favor. He is stranding runners 87.3% of the time while allowing a .251 BABIP. Early’s 4.62 xERA and 4.00 SIERA may temper our expectations of him sustaining the early-career 3.05 ERA. When a pitcher like Early has a mediocre ball rate (35%) and a low 9.4% swinging-strike rate, they probably rely upon command. And he does have a 102 Location+, but don’t sleep on his stuff (102 Stuff+), which includes multiple above-average offerings. 

Early’s changeup headlines his arsenal from a command standpoint (112 Location+), his only pitch with a Location+ above 100. Among qualified pitchers, Early ranks sixth in changeup Location+ behind Zac Gallen, Ryan Weathers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Freddy Peralta, and Seth Lugo. The changeup generates nearly 42 inches of downward movement, comparing closely to changeups from Kyle Harrison and Ranger Suarez from the left side. Early locates his changeup low and below the strike, leading opposing hitters to chase 43.2% of the time, yet it only has an 11.2% swinging-strike rate. With plenty of movement and above-average command, there’s a chance the pitch can elicit more whiffs in the future. 

Keep tabs on whether Early can find a second consistent pitch against right-handed hitters beyond the changeup. Among his four primary pitches thrown over 10% of the time, right-handers crush the curveball (.409 wOBA, .360 xwOBA) and sinker (.458 wOBA, .459 xwOBA).

Speaking of command, Early has been struggling to locate his four-seam (96 Location+), slider (99 Location+), and curveball (89 Location+). For context, the Location+ dipped by over 10 points on all three of those pitches vs. last season, leading to his overall Location+ going from 109 to 100. It’s hard to be successful when you throw four-seamers in the heart of the zone as often as Early does. Part of Early’s command issues via the slider and curveball can be explained via the heatmaps and zone rates from the past two seasons, though the 2025 sample is small. Early has been throwing his curveball in the zone 44.3% of the time, a 12-point jump from 2025. When Early leaves his curveball low in the zone, opposing hitters crush it. Maybe Early’s 2026 Location+ numbers will be more in line with the norm.

If you roster Early, don’t sell just to avoid the regression because he remains an above-average starting pitcher based on his stuff and command grades. You could try to buy if anyone is looking to sell high because I think the Red Sox will help him develop and grow over time with his diverse arsenal. There’s a downside scenario if he continues to allow hard contact and lacks strikeout skills.

Trey Yesavage, SP, Blue Jays

Trey Yesavage is a weird pitcher to evaluate with plenty of whiffs (13.8% swinging-strike rate), high arm angle (65 degrees), and an 80-grade splitter. He also raised health concerns, as he started the season on the injured list with a shoulder impingement. Control remains an issue (37% ball rate) yet he still elicits that above-average swinging-strike rate.

Yesavage has been breaking the stuff models. His splitter has a 135 Stuff+, yet just a 76 Location+. The only pitchers with a higher Stuff+ via the splitter include Mitchell Parker and Logan Gilbert. That wide gap in Stuff+ and Location+ doesn’t surprise us, and might explain why the splitter generates only an above-average 18.5% swinging-strike rate when it grades out elite and had a ridiculous 30.2% swinging-strike rate last season.

Yesavage is throwing more splitters against left-handed hitters this season (44.6%), a 12-percentage point usage increase. The splitter elicits more whiffs vs. LHH (20.8% swinging-strike rate) and plenty of weak contact (.217 wOBA, .269 xwOBA). Yesavage has been throwing splitters low and below the zone at times, but the command can be spotty via the heatmaps. 

With Yesavage’s splitter showing worse command, let’s highlight his slider flashing better command (100 Location+). Yesavage’s slider has been eliciting more whiffs (19.7% swinging-strike rate), a five-point increase from last season. He lowered the slider usage against right-handed hitters (31.1%) by 14 percentage points. Thankfully, Yesavage’s slider results have been better (.334 wOBA, .232 xwOBA) after being smashed last year (.397 wOBA, .400 xwOBA) against righties. The slider heatmaps against right-handed hitters align with his better Location+, as he commands them toward the outside of the plate more often. 

In previous articles, I’ve discussed my skepticism about certain pitchers, most notably Gavin Williams, developing better command with his above-average stuff. Yesavage might fit that bucket, as a high-stuff, low-command pitcher. The worry was whether Yesavage could develop more consistent pitches beyond his splitter. We’ve seen glimpses of that with better slider command. I’m warming up to the idea of acquiring Yesavage after having some skepticism.