Starting Pitchers That Gained Stuff and Command in May/June

In a previous article, we looked at starting pitchers who improved or lost their stuff and command over the past two seasons. This time, we’re examining starting pitchers that gained stuff and command in May and June compared to April to identify small sample changes. Sometimes a pitcher’s stuff and command improve closer toward the career averages. However, there can notable changes in a pitcher’s location and movement profiles that impact their stuff and command grades. This may be small sample noise, but it can also represent a change. Fantasy leagues can be won by being an early mover on a player who is breaking out. We’ll examine a few starting pitchers who made improvements in their stuff and command since May 1.

The chart above is all pitchers with a two-point increase in their Stuff+ and Location+ since May 1 vs. before.

Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies 

Aaron Nola struggled with his command (92 Location+) with decent stuff (104 Stuff+) through April, and while both have improved, it is the 10 point jump in Location+ that is really notable. He also had slightly better Stuff+ in May/June (110 Stuff+), bringing his the season-long numbers to his career norms. Though Nola’s outcomes were technically better in May (5.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP), that’s still hard to stomach. 

Nola had a 15.7% K-BB% in April and May, down from 18.5% from 2023-2025. Every ERA estimator suggests Nola’s ratios should be better. His most optimistic number is his 3.70 xFIP; the most pessimistic is his 4.32 xERA. Nola has been somewhat unlucky with a .339 BABIP and a 65.8% strand rate. His career BABIP sits over 30 points lower with a strand rate four points higher. We should expect Nola’s outcomes to regress, if you have deployed Nola, you likely have brutal ratios already. I’m in that camp with Nola, Jack Flaherty, Garrett Crochet, and Reid Detmers on a team. 

Besides Nola’s four-seamer and knuckle curve increasing by five points in Stuff+, the most notable improvement is his command. Nola not only improved command overall; there have been Location+ improvements by over 10 points from each of his four-seamer, sinker, cutter, and knuckle curveball. For context, Nola’s only pitch with a Location+ above 100 was the knuckle curve (102 Location) through April. Meanwhile, Nola’s four-seam (86), sinker (92), and cutter (81) all were significantly below average in Location+.

All of Nola’s pitches have an above-average Location+ since May 1, including the four-seam (106), sinker (102), cutter (114), changeup (117), and knuckle curve (110). In addition to the command gains, Nola has been throwing more knuckle curves from (30% in April, 37.6% in May, and 38.3% in June), while tossing fewer four-seamers (28.6% in April, 24.2% in May, 16.6% in June).

Instead of doing a deep dive on all of Nola’s pitches, let’s highlight two location changes. The first being the sinker. In April, Nola was locating his sinker low in the zone, but he has been throwing them higher in the zone. Specifically, Nola is locating his sinkers 2-4 inches higher in May and June. High sinkers seem to be a new trend in the pitching landscape. Similarly, Nola has been locating his cutter higher in the zone in May and June compared to April, as seen in the heatmaps below. Nola’s cutter has been located over 8-11 inches higher in the zone since May 1. 

We love Nola’s command improvements, but it will take a long stretch of positive outcomes to improve the season-long numbers. Even with Nola’s improved command since May, he has a 5.71 ERA (3.81 xERA and 3.72 xFIP). Since he still has above-average stuff grades within his profile, it might be worth scooping up Nola if he was cut in a shallower format.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates

Braxton Ashcraft has been a key contributor to the Pirates’ rotation, nearly matching teammate Paul Skenes in both ERA and WAR. Ashcraft is showing strong strikeout skills, boasting a 21.4% K-BB%, 13.3% swinging-strike rate, and a 3.16 SIERA. And while he has been good from the start, he has improved Stuff+ and Location+ since April. 

In April, Ashcraft’s Stuff+ (101) and Location (100) were both pretty average. But he has seen big increases in both (107 Stuff+, 108 Location+) since May 1. That has brought his overall Stuff+ and Location+ numbers in-line with his career numbers.

The breaking pitches have seen the most gain. Ashcraft has improved the Stuff+ on his slider and curveball by 9-10 points since May 1 and he possesses two near-elite breaking pitches from a swinging-strike rate, with his curveball and slider at 19.4%.. He was also throwing more sliders (28.4%) in May, though it dipped back (18.4%) in June. That coincides with Ashcraft throwing fewer sinkers (12%) in May, a six point decrease, with a three-point dip in curveball usage.

Ashcraft’s new offspeed pitch this season is the splitter. It looks like a pitch classification change based on a similar amount of downward movement (26 inches) and just one more inch of arm-side fade compared to his old changeup. Though Baseball Savant labels the pitch as a splitter, it looks more like a kick change because of the spin rate and horizontal movement. He only throws splitters against left-handed hitters (8.5%) while ditching the changeup. The splitter or kick change has been a positive addition because it generates weak contact to lefties (.276 wOBA, .220 xwOBA). 

Ashcraft’s stuff and command grades in May seem to be more of what we expected from him before the season. He is a high-end starting pitcher with legitimate skills. 

Emmet Sheehan, SP, Dodgers

Emmet Sheehan is a command artist with average to above-average stuff. He started the season with good command (107 Location+) and below-average Stuff+ (91) through April. Since May 1, Sheehan’s Stuff+ increased by over 10 points (to 103), with a similarly large jump on his four-seamer (to 104). His command improved by five points (112 Location+) since May 1. 

Most of what we loved about Sheehan before the season has shown up this year. That includes Sheehan’s four-seam with impressive induced vertical break (18.4 inches) coming from 6.7 feet of extension (67th percentile); a gyro-like slider that elicits plenty of whiffs (21.6% swinging-strike rate); and a sneaky changeup that could generate whiffs. Sheehan’s changeup has above-average downward movement (38 inches), with 4.2 more inches of drop than the average change. 

Sheehan’s changeup had a 112-113 Stuff+ in previous seasons, but dropped to 102 this season. However, the movement profile for Sheehan’s changeup could generate whiffs and weak contact. Sheehan’s changeup has been giving up more hard contact (.311 wOBA, .289 xwOBA) this season against left-handed hitters, partly because he might be catching too much of the zone. The changeup zone rate went from 45.5% (2025) to 49% (2026). Interestingly, the average vertical and horizontal locations of Sheehan’s changeups have been nearly identical against left-handed hitters over the past two seasons.

The visual below shows the changeup heatmaps and xwOBA by zone against left-handed hitters.

That likely indicates that opposing left-handed hitters have been attacking the changeup when it’s more in the heart of the zone or doing damage when they’re on the edges. Over the past month (seven starts), Sheehan’s strikeout skills (21% K-BB% and 14.8% swinging-strike rate) have supported a 3.75 xFIP if his 15.2% HR/F regresses. Go buy low on Sheehan if fantasy managers haven’t noticed Sheehan’s better stuff and command lately. 

Eury Pérez, SP, Marlins

Unfortunately, Eury Pérez landed on the injured list with a hamstring injury. But we were seeing improved command before the injury. There have been reports that Pérez will miss around eight weeks, which puts us into late July. If we like what we’re seeing in the stuff and command data, it might present a buying opportunity, especially for keeper and dynasty formats. 

There’s no denying Pérez’s elite stuff (118 Stuff+), but his command was awful at the start of the season. Pérez had an 88 Location+ through April, which increased to 97 since May 1. Specifically, Pérez’s four-seam (104), slider (101), curveball (101), and changeup (102) all had a Location+ above 100 since May 1. For context, only Pérez’s curveball (101) had a Location+ above 100 through April, including a poorly commanded four-seamer (83), slider (92), and changeup (90). Meanwhile, Pérez’s Stuff+ remained elite.

Pérez is throwing his four-seamer 1.7 inches higher in the zone since May 1 to use the 18 inches of induced vertical break with 6.7 feet of extension (69th percentile) to his advantage. Hopefully, Pérez continues to command his four-seamer like we saw since May 1.

Pérez’s curve also saw a drop in Location+ from 2025 (112) to 2026 (101). 

We’re dealing with a small sample of curveballs thrown against lefties (9.4%). However, Pérez is throwing his curveball 2.4 inches more toward his arm side while continuing to locate them low in the zone. That indicates Pérez is locating his curveballs low and away from left-handed hitters while throwing them over 1.5 inches lower since May 1. When Pérez throws his curveball in the zone against left-handed hitters, they smash them to the tune of a .637 wOBA (.540 xwOBA) since May 1. The wOBA looked better in April (.299) but the xwOBA (.539) suggested this was always coming. Based on the heatmaps above, he has been catching too much of the zone this year and lefties are punishing him for it. If his locations are improving, that could help resolve this problem.

Pérez’s strikeout skills and Stuff+ have been similar to the career averages. He should be a starting pitcher to buy low on for keeper and dynasty leagues, especially since we saw the command improve after maintaining his elite stuff.