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Here is today’s chat transcript:

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On Saturday, Sal Stewart hit his 30th HR and Sarah Langs pulled yet another fun stat:

Sal Stewart is the 14th rookie in MLB history with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI in a season the 9 previous players to do it since the rookie of the year award began (1947) all won it

— Sarah Langs (@slangsonsports.bsky.social) 2026-08-29T19:07:32.184Z

That sent me scampering to the FanGraphs Rookie Leaderboards where you would see that Stewart, for all the fun counting stats, is the 7th best offensive rookie by fWAR (and is behind some (pitchers, as well), and the 9th best by wRC+.

But this article isn’t about Stewart, it is about the two fine young gentleman who top that wRC+ rookie leaderboard Esmerlyn Valdez and Munetaka Murakami. There are no many debuts more fun that those two. Murakami is going to have 30 HR any day now (I am writing Saturday, so maybe he already does?) and Valdez is on pace for 40, if only it were for those pesky months in Triple-A.

But Murakami and Valdez share something beyond prodigious power: a prodigious inability to make contact.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Tolle has allowed more than 3 ER just once over his L9 outings, posting a beautiful 2.65 ERA/1.04 WHIP/28% K-BB in 51 IP. Today, he gets the 30th ranked offense versus lefties.
• Any concerns for Harrison after the shellacking at SDP have been tamped down by 2 strong starts since, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP with 13 Ks. CHC is scary, especially with how dialed in PCA is right now, but Harrison doesn’t leave the rotation for me.
• A gem last time out from Kirby (7.7 IP/1 ER/9 Ks) inspires some confidence, but man oh man it’s been a grind this year. I mentioned ahead of his last start that SEA’s defense is a big reason behind his struggles and obviously one good start doesn’t fix that. I can’t see benching him despite the bumpy year, though.
• deGrom’s been on a 1 up/1 down pattern over his last 8 starts but it’s so hard to take those sort of runs seriously. If anything, it just underscores a pitcher’s start-to-start inconsistency and there are no guarantees the pattern will continue meaning we can’t expect a good outing just because the last one was bad. And yet, I still have him at 3-x as he’s facing the battered A’s lineup at home. I might have more caution if it was in Sacramento, but this is the right setup for him to continue to this weird pattern.
• A 9 ER Dud v. LAA two starts ago has saddled Lambert with a 6.12 ERA over the month but that’s literally his only bad start during the run. In fact, it’s the only start where he’s allowed more than 2 ER in his L10 and he did rebound from the LAA outing with a solid 5.7 IP/2 ER/5 Ks at NYY.
• I’ve got some nerves about this Nola rebirth as the 2.63 ERA comes with a 1.26 WHIP over his L6 starts but the run also comes with a 29% K rate and of course his residence on a strong PHI team gives him a decent W probability (though he is just 2-2 during this run).
• COL is just 11th in wOBA at home since the break giving me more confidence to run Bradish in Coors today. I’ll never give managers a hard time for skipping Coors with non-aces especially if you’re protecting ratios against the meltdown start (which Bradish had last time out with 7 ER at STL).
• Ureña, not Mitch Farris, going for LAA. While NYY got Belly back and Luis Garcia Jr. has been excellent with them, they remain a pretty non-threatening offense without Judge. Ureña’s ERA is due for some regression given how many base runners he allows but even if he’s more high 3.00s than high-2.00s, I’m still comfortable using him v. NYY today. 

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I sat down to write this article at the start of the Cubs-Reds game on a sunny Sunday afternoon. It matched my disposition. Earlier in the day, I’d clinched an enviable first round bye in my home league. But the final game of the day was a game of consequence for a few of my league mates in a less privileged playoff position. 

Their two teams were separated by just a game in our head-to-head categories league. 

Both were in matchups where Cubs hitters had the chance to make or break their seasons. A run scored by Michael Busch or Nico Hoerner would send a surging Cinderella story packing and let a team that looked to be a shoo-in a few months ago limp into the playoffs. A stolen base by Ian Happ would have had the same effect, but was not really much of a consideration.  

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Oops…

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7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

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Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers. Read the rest of this entry »

Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

• Over the last six games, Vaughn Grissom moved up to hit either third or fourth.

• Jose Siri (vs LHP) and Gustavo Campero (vs RHP) were in a platoon, but Campero is now on the IL, so Siri may get full-time at-bats.

• Christian Moore (.639 OPS since being recalled) started five straight games at second base. Read the rest of this entry »

THOMAS CORDY/PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I thought I’d had a smart idea. I wanted to see how “dead” affected a league’s standings as the season drew to a close. With managers quitting their teams for various reasons, I wanted to see how the rate stats for underperforming teams changed. The counting stats needed to move up or down the standings are easier to calculate for each league, but rate stat movement is a bit of a mystery. I expected the bottom teams to go after counting stats and ignore their ratio categories. They did not. Instead, I verified regression remains unbeaten … probably.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 7/24 | next: September)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Pardon me for no Thursday board. I was light on sleep Wednesday night and then crashed after my morning stream. I will have some comments in the morning on Friday’s star-studded board.

• Any Tigers fan who boos Skubal tonight is a stone cold loser. He was traded and it’s not like he demanded to be moved. Anything but overwhelming love for him would be really out of pocket to me.
• McClanahan catches a hot hitting SDP team (9th wOBA vL in L30) but after 5 scoreless on 74 pitches last time out – his 2nd start off the IL – I’m confident installing back into every lineup.
• The erosion of the Nationals offense has been a tough watch. Trades of Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia were one thing, but then James Wood’s injury and the absolute worst month of the year for CJ Abrams has them sitting just 26th in wOBA versus over the last month and down to 14th on the season. The 4th for the year going into August! I say all that and Eury was just fine against them last time out (5 IP/1 ER/3 BB/4 Ks) but there’s a chance for a big outing for sure.
• Classic TJ returner season for Jones. RIGHT when you get comfortable with them as a must start, they hit the rug pull! After a nasty July, Jones has made it 5 IP just once in 4 August tries, was pasted for 8 ER v. NYM, and was lucky to survive LAD with 4 IP/2 ER given his 5 BB. Predictably, it’s been spotty command and control behind his struggles with a 14% BB rate and 2.3 HR9 over his L4. Like I said, classic TJ returner! All that said, though, and he’s still catching a relatively high slot in the 3-x tier as a trip to STL provides a good chance to get right. Another major struggle here would make him a tough start anywhere next week, though. (Note: he was moved down from 8th to 12th after the original post).
• I remain terrified of anyone pitching in Sacramento but Lopez has simply been far too good over his L7 to sit anywhere: 2.36 ERA/1.05 WHIP/22% K-BB in 39 IP, including 4 home starts.
• 2 great, 2 awful starts for Mize with SDP so far, including an early departure after slipping down the stairs between innings and rolling his ankle in his last one. He’s said to be recovered from that and ready to go today, but with a tough matchup on tap, I can see some skips… especially if you’re protecting ratios and a Dud would really hurt you.
• Brown certainly hasn’t been the frontliner we expected for a while now, toting a 4.41 ERA/1.41 WHIP combo over his L9 with a paltry 7% K-BB. He’s allowed multiple BB and 1 HR in each of his L5, too, thus taking him out of any must-start status. I still have a hard time getting away from him in deeper formats, but 10-team managers shouldn’t feel obligated to run him.
• It’s only 1 spot, but Painter should be ahead of Bradford on matchup alone, especially as Bradford has been “meh” lately while Painter is surging: 3.62 ERA/1.06 WHIP/14% K-BB. He did suffer a Dud at MIN thanks to a 4-run first inning but he stabilized and dropped four strong IP after that and then bounced back in the next start (his most recent) for his best start of the year: 7 IP/1 ER/0 BB/8 Ks.
• Sandoval rebounded from his Dud at PIT with 5.7 IP/2 ER/2 BB/6 Ks v. SFG, but it was his 6th straight game with at least 2 BB. This ostensibly should be a good matchup for him despite heading to NYY. Their lefty-laden lineup should play into Sandy’s strengths, despite what a disgusting .586 BABIP vL has done to his numbers this year. That’s clearly small sample flukiness to me so I’m willing to run him in some spots tonight.
• I would still be pretty nervous to run Anderson or Sugano, but they are catching their otherwise tough opponents at the right moment with LAD 25th and ATL 29th in wOBA vR over the L30 days.

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