Starting Pitcher Chart – May 4th, 2026
- Daily SP Chart archive
- 2-Start podcast episode
- SP Rankings (updated Monday April 27th!)
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Went to a game with the family tonight so I’ll drop comments in the morning.
- As I keep my rankings updated behind the scenes in between updates, Schlittler just keeps rising. Soriano is getting a ton of attention for his sub-1.00 ERA essentially out of nowhere, but Schlittler is every bit as impressive so far this year.
- Gilbert’s surface woes (at least relative to an ace) surprised me a bit as I don’t have him anywhere this year so I’m not as dialed in on his day-to-day. But once I take a deeper look, I’m not worried. His 19% K-BB is down 7 pts from last year but in line with his 21% career mark. The .349 BABIP stands out and the elevated line drive could be a culprit behind it, but nothing I’m long-term concerned about.
- Cabrera hasn’t been giving me the warm-n-fuzzies despite the impressive surface numbers. His 6 pt. drop in K% is a little concerning despite his SwStr holding firm at his 12% career mark. A career-best 8% HR/FB is keeping him from fully paying for his lessened skills but the 4.27 SIERA hints at what could happen if the HR/FB trends back toward league average (11%), let alone his career mark (15%).
- Martin hasn’t added to his SwStr% to back the 6 pt. K% surge but he’s still at the upper reaches of what a 9.6% can yield. He has a nice BB% improvement and of course the 87% LOB is playing a big role in his ERA being under 2.00. He’s not that good but if he can live in a 14-17% K-BB range and he doesn’t get all his LOB and HR/FB regression is one super nasty start, then I think he can maintain a usable mid-3.00s ERA with a sub-1.25 WHIP.
- I’m starting to take the struggling performances of expected good teams a bit more seriously as we push into May. So teams like the Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox. They all still have threats in the lineup and can go off on a given night, but I’m loosening my streaming restrictions against them. It earned Junk an extra X and got Sugano his lone X.
- Baz has a 2-step so you might have to eat that Yankees start to get the Athletics one at home this weekend, but is it even worth it? I want him to be as good as his reputation, but he’s just not.
| Rk | PITCHER | Tm | Opp | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | opp wOBA RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | v. BOS | x | x | x | 43.1 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 23% | 15 |
| 2 | Cam Schlittler | NYY | v. BAL | x | x | x | 41.2 | 1.51 | 0.74 | 28% | 17 |
| 3 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | at HOU | x | x | x | 37.2 | 2.87 | 1.01 | 16% | 2 |
| 4 | José Soriano | LAA | v. CHW | x | x | x | 42.2 | 0.84 | 0.94 | 20% | 25 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | v. ATL | x | x | x | 38 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 19% | 1 |
| 6 | Payton Tolle | BOS | at DET | x | x | x | 10.2 | 3.38 | 1.03 | 24% | 14 |
| 7 | Randy Vásquez | SDP | at SFG | x | x | x | 33.2 | 2.94 | 1.16 | 17% | 29 |
| 8 | Michael Wacha | KCR | v. CLE | x | x | x | 37.1 | 3.13 | 1.13 | 13% | 24 |
| 9 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | v. CIN | x | x | x | 35.1 | 3.06 | 1.19 | 12% | 23 |
| 10 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | at KCR | x | x | x | 35.1 | 4.08 | 1.44 | 12% | 20 |
| 11 | Davis Martin | CHW | at LAA | x | x | 37 | 1.95 | 1.08 | 17% | 16 | |
| 12 | JR Ritchie | ATL | at SEA | x | x | 12.1 | 2.92 | 1.30 | 10% | 13 | |
| 13 | Nick Martinez | TBR | v. TOR | x | x | 37 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 10% | 18 | |
| 14 | Janson Junk | MIA | v. PHI | x | x | 33 | 3.00 | 1.06 | 10% | 22 | |
| 15 | Aaron Nola | PHI | at MIA | x | 31.1 | 6.03 | 1.56 | 16% | 10 | ||
| 16 | Tomoyuki Sugano | COL | v. NYM | x | 31.2 | 2.84 | 1.17 | 9% | 30 | ||
| 17 | Kyle Leahy | STL | v. MIL | x | 29.1 | 5.52 | 1.67 | 8% | 12 | ||
| 18 | Shane Baz | BAL | at NYY | 34 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 12% | 4 | |||
| 19 | Eric Lauer 라우어 | TOR | at TBR | 27 | 6.00 | 1.52 | 6% | 19 | |||
| 20 | Chase Petty | CIN | at CHC | 8 | |||||||
| 21 | Ryan Weiss 와이스 | HOU | v. LAD | 21.2 | 6.65 | 1.98 | 8% | 3 | |||
| 22 | David Peterson | NYM | at COL | 30.1 | 6.53 | 1.71 | 10% | 27 | |||
| 23 | Chad Patrick | MIL | at STL | 28 | 2.57 | 1.25 | 3% | 11 | |||
| 24 | Trevor McDonald | SFG | v. SDP | 21 |
Intro
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Wind at 10+
Coors – in from L at 10, some rain too
DET – in from R at 14
NYY – across from R to L at 12
Wrigley – out to L center at 16, bump to bats, though possible rain too
STL – out to L center at 11
LAA – out to center at 10
We have some potential rain issues too (max in-game %):
Coors – 34% at 1st pitch increasing to 60% by game’s end
DET – 43%
Wrigley – 32% at 1st pitch increasing to 51% by game’s end
KCR – 36% increasing to 60% by game’s end and 73% after the game
The Phillies, re: Aaron Nola – “man we are on the hook for a lot of money, but we can’t just keep doing this, can we?” Between last year and this, he’s run a 6+ ERA over 22 starts and counting…
Many of his underlying numbers are not too dissimilar to the past, but he’s lost a tick and developed a HR problem (& he didn’t have many ticks to lose unlike, say, deGrom). The estimators say he hasn’t been anywhere near this bad, but the also say that 2018-22 Nola is probably not coming back and he’s probably more like a league average streaming guy than set-it and forget it.
It’s entirely the HRs which make him a NIGHTMARE stream with extreme highs and lows. At 1.5 since 2023 and 1.7 since last year. He’s cooked as a reliable option. A remarkably dangerous streamer at best.
Yeah, I don’t know. I guess I’m not seeing it as being THAT bad. Ks are fine, BB are up a bit but not terrible. Definitely has a HR problem but his overall EV is in-line with past seasons. Hardhit% is up a couple points but not bad. O-swing, Z-swing, contact – all not terribly different. Other than HR, everything is simply not that far off a few years ago. Maybe down a bit, but he just isn’t this bad. The estimators run from 3.70 to 4.86 ERA which is a far cry from the 6+ he has actually put up. The various projections run from 4.00 to 4.50 too.
I pulled up a list of qualified starters in recent years and I see a lot of ERAs in the low 4s for guys around HR/9 of 1.5. Sure there are some worse, but there are some better too. Joe Ryan had HR issues last year and put up a 3.42 (of course, he had a better K-BB but there are other examples).
I don’t know, I guess I see him as a streamer and he gets the Fish in a pitcher’s park today which is not a bad setup.
Now, if we want to talk real world and not fantasy, yeah, that contract is not going to age well with still another 4 years after this one.
I still gave him a star and today’s the kind of setup where you give him a look. I think the volatility you’re outlining is why I find him to be a very nerve-wracking streamer, though. He’ll have his good starts, but the bad ones will often erase 2-3 good ones. The BABIP is hot at .349, but does he have the really bring it down? It was .315 last yr; .295 career.
It’s funny you bring up Ryan bc his descent will be a lot like this, IMO. Ober’s already there but running a hot 9% HR/FB. I don’t really buy it.
Great start today 5/5 for Nola! you were right.
Breaking news: Skubal scratched and rumored to be getting loose bodies surgery. No timeline yet but Diaz is down for 3 months with the same thing
***EDIT – OK, apparently the surgery part came directly from Hinch so that would seem to be more than a rumor.
Interesting – the Mets threw 2 openers in front of Peterson with Brazoban taking the 1st and Warren the 2nd and 3rd before Peterson came in for the 4th.
new meta just dropped? 👀