Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which group of starting pitchers you expect to post a better ERA over the rest of the season. One group was composed of the 10 largest SIERA overperformers, while the other comprised the underperformers. Let’s now shift over to hitters by comparing wOBA to xwOBA and pitting the xwOBA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.
The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing starting pitchers’ ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.
On Sunday, I read the following comment on Rotoworld about Chase Burns‘ start:
His fastball was located well, but, as has been true in his first two starts, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on the pitch. He had eight whiffs on 55 total fastballs in this one, with a whopping 16 foul balls. His fastball has below average extension and simply isn’t as elite of a pitch against big league hitters who can handle high velocity.
Sure enough, his four-seamer has generated just a 7.6% SwStk% despite the pitch averaging a scintillating 98.2 MPH. So it got me thinking about perceived velocity, which extension affects. If a pitcher is throwing 95 MPH, but the batter perceives the pitch’s velocity to actually be 97 MPH, or perhaps 93 MPH, that should matter, right? I would therefore think the gap between perceived and actual velocity would influence the pitch’s whiff rate and the pitcher’s strikeout rate. So I decided to dive in and find out if that theory is true.
Last week, I reviewed how the top hitting prospect have performed in the Majors this year. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching prospects. This time, I’ll be using the Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update, instead of the preseason list.
With just over half the season in the books, let’s review the performances and fantasy contributions of the preseason top hitting prospects that have made it to the Majors so far this season. Depending on your league size, format, and competitors, top prospects are often hot commodities on draft day, sometimes going for inflated prices that are difficult to break even on. So let’s see how this year’s crop has done. Note that many of these hitters remain in small sample size territory, so I won’t constantly repeat that caveat in each blurb.
It’s been nearly two months since I last reviewed the hitter xwOBA underperformers and overperformers. So let’s check back in as we head into the second half of the season. These lists are good starting points for buy low and sell high names, so let’s dive in and determine whether each does indeed fit into those buckets.
Similar to yesterday’s exercise where I compared starting pitcher Stuff+ grades in June to earlier in the season, let’s flip over to hitters and review average bat speed. I have no idea how stable it is during the season, so I was curious if I would even find meaningful bat speed gains and declines this month versus in the period ending in May. Sure enough, I did! So let’s review the most dramatic average bat speed gainers and decliners in June compared to the previous months of the season.
Pitchers seemingly change during the season more often than hitters. By change, I mean their talent level fluctuates as their velocity bounces around, they tinker with their pitch mix, mechanics, etc. So it could be insightful to look at recent trends to help decide whether a pitcher is establishing a new performance baseline. So let’s look at June Stuff+ marks for all qualified pitchers in the month. Whose Stuff+ grade has risen most and whose has fallen? Let’s find out.
Yesterday, I discussed 20 disappointing hitters when comparing projected to actual dollar value earned, and tried to determine who was worth targeting in trade or patiently holding. Let’s now flip over to the players that have vaulted many teams to the top of the standings. These are the league winners so far, so the question now becomes — will they remain league-winning contributors or regress closer toward their preseason projections? Let’s find out.
I’m one of those who screams small sample for weeks on end after the season begins, but even I start to lose patience after one of my hitters goes 0-for-4 yet again. As we hit around the 40% mark of the season, it’ll likely be much easier to buy slow starters at a discount to their draft day cost. But do you want to? Let’s review a slew of underperformers so far and try to figure out who is most worth targeting in trade or holding tightly if you have the misfortune of owning any.
