Batter xwOBA Underperformers & Overperformers — May 4, 2026

I probably wait longer than most to evaluate my team and perform research on potential trades, but with just over a month in the books, it’s definitely trading season for the vast majority. This time of year is when we dive into the underlying skills to determine what’s real and what isn’t, identify trade targets, and review which of your own players should be put on the block.

So it’s finally time to review the xwOBA underperformers (potential buy low targets) and overperformers (potential sell high targets). Before diving in, it’s also important to understand that just because a players’ skills so far support an X, Y, or Z xwOBA doesn’t mean those underlying drivers will continue, especially if he had never displayed such skills in the past. So sometimes I might not actually expect an underperformer to enjoy a performance surge, and instead figure his xwOBA will actually decline to meet his wOBA, rather than the reverse.

We’ll start with the xwOBA underperformers. I arbitrarily decided to use a minimum of 80 PAs (which is below the number to qualify for the batting title) to ensure I capture enough players that are fantasy relevant.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has always been able to offset his weak offense by playing exceptional defense. But for whatever reason, his OAA this season is negative. So if he’s not hitting as usual and playing below average defense, that’s a real problem. Interestingly, his xwOBA is actually his highest since 2023. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, but he’s gotten crushed by a .130 BABIP. That’s very clearly due in part to the fact that he has become an extreme fly ball hitter. Seems a bit weird though considering he owns limited power, never even recording a double digit HR/FB rate. So he’s just hitting tons of fly balls that are being caught with only 3% of them going over the fence. Things would clearly improve if he is given the chance, but he’s at major risk of losing his starting job once Eugenio Suárez returns.

A ridiculously low BABIP and almost no power had cost Patrick Bailey some playing time before Daniel Susac hit the IL. There obviously isn’t a whole lot of upside even at his xwOBA, so NL-Only leaguers just gotta hold and hope.

Jake Cronenworth has posted pretty similar skills as always, though he’s oddly become an extreme groundball guy, which isn’t terrible considering he owns just a 9.1% HR/FB rate. Once again, the upside here isn’t much, but you likely don’t have much of a choice but to hold in an NL-Only league.

Ketel Marte’s walk rate has dipped to its lowest since the short 2020 season, and his strikeout rate is the highest of his career. That’s not a great combo. He has also lost fly balls, posting his lowest FB% since 2016. Oddly, even with a career best LD% and GB% spike, his BABIP has slid to a career low. The power remains strong though, so this is all about the walks, strikeouts, and low BABIP, which should certainly rebound given the batted ball profile. The elevated SwStr% is slightly worrying, but for now, he looks like a fine trade target and a “sit pat” if you own him.

Perhaps better luck would have kept Luisangel Acuña in the starting lineup. Without it, he’s useless offensively since he has no power and his balls in play are just not finding any holes.

Wait, wait wait. So Dillon Dingler isn’t overperforming with his breakout .363, but is actually underperforming?! He has cut his strikeout rate, increased his HardHit%, and his Barrel% has surged. He’s a perfect example of just because his xwOBA is over .400 doesn’t mean we should automatically expect his results to improve dramatically the rest of the way. It’s been a great 114 PA to start the season, but can it continue? The reduced strikeout rate is supported by an improved SwStr%, but this is better than he’s ever done historically. He posted high teens HR/FB rates in the minors, as well as a 20.2% mark in his last look at Triple-A, but can he really maintain a 19.4% mark with just a 107.8 MPH maxEV? That would be difficult. I’m definitely betting against his wOBA rising from here on out, so the question then becomes whether he can maintain this level of performance. I’ll say he’ll still perform better than projected, but regress.

My X post tells you all you need to know about Fernando Tatis Jr.’s power outage:

Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn’t have a power problem.

He has a fly ball direction problem.

MLB HR/FB by Direction:
Pull – 30.7%
Center – 7.8%
Oppo – 3.7%

He’s just not pulling his fly balls.

That’s it. pic.twitter.com/tl42YnB0nm

— Mike Podhorzer (@MikePodhorzer) April 28, 2026

Unfortunately, xwOBA’s biggest flaw is not accounting for horizontal direction, which is seriously problematic in this case. Everything else here is fairly normal, though his FB% decline to a sub-30% level is not ideal. I have no idea why he stopped pulling his flies, but that’s all there is to his slow start. You have to assume those pulled flies will return, but perhaps there’s an underlying reason why there have been so few of them so far.

Victor Caratini was somewhat intriguing given his catcher eligibility and playing time in the DH slot. That has slowly dried up though given his slow start, which limits his value to deep leagues. At this point, it’s going to be tough to regain that playing time. Unlike the others, his power does seem clearly down.

Tyler Stephenson makes for the second catcher in a row here. He has become an extreme fly ball hitter, which would be great for his home run count if his HR/FB rate didn’t tank. Weirdly, his HardHit% is up, Barrel% remains elite in the mid-teens, but the homers just haven’t come. A look under the hood reveals a similar problem to Tatis — a lack of pulled flies. Stephenson’s rate is at the lowest of his career, though it’s still like triple Tatis’ microscopic mark. The high FB% is also likely hampering his BABIP, so something’s gotta give for his offense to return.

Wow, an 18% walk rate for J.P. Crawford?! The skills here all look good, including a career best Barrel%. It’s all in the .232 BABIP, the lowest of his career, that’s killing his wOBA. The upside ain’t very high here, but in AL-Only leagues, especially those that use OBP, he makes for a nice target.

How many of you have been expecting an Alec Bohm power spike one of these years? I have been, though he’s actually never been on any of my fantasy teams. Since the power spike hasn’t come, he relies on the bouncing ball of BABIP, and a spot in the middle of the Phillies lineup, to maintain his fantasy value. Now, the BABIP has cratered, and what middling power he had has disappeared as well. He’s suddenly become a pop-up machine to go along with a career high FB%, so I wonder if he has been trying to sell out for power and it hasn’t been working. Things should improve here, so maaaaaaaybe he’s an NL-Only league target. However, a bottom third lineup spot really cuts into his value.

You would have expected that Kyle Karros, son of Eric who posted a career .186 ISO and hit 284 homers, would be quite exciting calling Coors Field home. Instead, he sports a microscopic .056 ISO with two home runs over 271 career PAs. All the skills look pretty good here though that makes it seems like he should actually be an all-around contributor, even with the occasional steal. But I guess until his power actually manifests, it’s hard to bank on an improvement. Perhaps an NL-Only keeper league target, especially one that uses OBP.

Wow, Freddie Freeman’ strikeout rate is sitting at a career best of 11%! Of course, his walk rate is also at a career low because his O-Swing% is at the second highest mark of his career. That’s not great, as I’d imagine BABIP on pitches outside the zone is lower. Still, his batted ball profile is almost identical to last year, but his BABIP has fallen to a career worst, below .300 for only the second time. Oh, and his power has gone M.I.A., despite healthy Statcast metrics. I think he’ll be just fine and since his owner might be worried about age-related decline, he might be easy to pry away at a discount.

Let’s now flip over to the overperformers.

My gosh, Mickey Moniak has been a maniac, huh?! He’s become an extreme flyballer, which has worked out since he has also posted a career best 23.1% HR/FB rate. Of course, it’s a little surprising given a decline in both HardHit% and Barrel%, plus a maxEV below 110 MPH. Ahhhh, it’s a huge spike in pulled FB% that’s absolutely behind the HR/FB rate spike. It’s anyone’s guess if that continues, but as I mentioned earlier, xwOBA is missing that. There’s no way he maintains a .344 BABIP with that batted ball profile, but if he does maintain the pulled FB%, the power might be real, or close to it.

Welcome back Ozzie Albies?! After knocking 33 homers with a .358 wOBA in 2023, he’s been disappointing offensively the last two seasons. Skills look pretty normal here, except that his HardHit% and Barrel% are as weak as ever. There’s no way that should translate to a rebound in HR/FB rate back to double digits. His pulled FB% is also in line with recent years. Oh, and his BABIP is his highest since 2019 and second highest of his career despite his flyball tendency. It might be easy to believe the good Albies is back, but nothing in his underlying skills suggest that’s actually the case. He looks like a prime sell high.

I also posted on X about Ildemaro Vargas!

Ildemaro Vargas has a 30% HR/FB after a 6.7% career mark through 2025.

How?

Easy.

Unlike Fernando Tatis Jr., he’s pulling his fly balls (top 3 in FB Pull%) like opposite field got deleted from his swing path. pic.twitter.com/Mo7ktwsuMl

— Mike Podhorzer (@MikePodhorzer) April 29, 2026

Like Tatis, the lack of accounting of batted ball horizontal direction makes Vargas’ shocking 26.1% look even crazier. That’s still not sustainable no matter what rate of his flies he has pulled, but it’s more believable than Statcast thinks. Of course, that doesn’t explain his nutty .395 BABIP, though a 28.2% LD% certainly helps a lot here. What’s fascinating here is that he appears on the overperformers list, but his xwOBA is still .390, which has gotta be like the 100th percentile for him as it is. I doubt anyone is buying high here, so owners can try, but will likely have to just enjoy the ride for however long it lasts. Since he doesn’t steal bases, there’s obviously real risk he falls enough that he’s back in the free agent pool in a couple of weeks.

I was always skeptical of Brooks Lee’s power potential despite some respectable HR/FB rates in the minors because of low maxEV marks and a low HardHit% at Triple-A in 2024. He’s now doing it again, posting a strong HR/FB rate despite weak HardHit% and Barrel% marks. Is this another high pulled FB% example? Kind of! His 36.4% is well above the league average typically between 25% and 30%, and significantly above his 26.5% mark last year. If he could maintain that pulled FB% mark, I think he could stay near this wOBA level.

I’m surprised to find Moisés Ballesteros’ name here given skills that don’t seem fluky at all, but I also just realized that he has a .403 wOBA! Statcast thinks he is overperforming from both a BABIP and ISO perspective, even though he has yet to hit a pop-up and his 49.2% HardHit% is quite strong. I think most fantasy owners are praying he gets in more games at catcher to qualify there, and then he might immediately become a top 10 option there.

Man, a .251 xwOBA for Andrés Giménez?! I guess Statcast is questioning the .281 BABIP, even though that’s below league average, because of a low LD%, but odds are that rate comes up. His ISO is actually the second highest of his career, which does seem fluky, but it’s not like a .156 mark is very high. I don’t see any real reason to sell high here, and he isn’t exactly high enough to net much in return anyway.

José Caballero’s HR/FB rate looks like a fluke, though his pulled FB% is at the highest of his career. There are a lot of mixed signals here, including a cratering walk rate, but career best strikeout rate, a drop in FB%, but also a drop in LD%. The Yankees will have some decisions to make once Anthony Volpe is finally back.

Why does Ernie Clement post FB% marks over 40% with such limited power?! I doubt a .317 BABIP is sustainable given the flyball and pop-up heavy profile. With a combined two homers and steals, there’s nothing to sell high on. Owners should simply be prepared for a decline in batting average and a relatively empty set of contributions the rest of the way.

Leave it up to the Rockies to give starting jobs to so many random players. Troy Johnston has been one of the beneficiaries that tactic. Surprisingly, he has hit well, but Statcast clearly thinks it’s a fluke. He has shown little power, so there’s not much downside there. Instead, it’s the .385 BABIP, and Coors Field or not, that’s not sustainable. Then again, with a 28.2% LD% and no pop-ups, the batted ball profile reminds me of prime Joey Votto. Unsurprisingly, he has posted a .405 wOBA at home (with just one homer), but just a .314 mark on the road. An acceptable start in daily transaction leagues when at home, but that’s about it.

Byron Buxton has been healthy and overperforming his xwOBA?! That’s not a good sign for his owners. Like several names on these lists, his batted ball profile has dramatically changed, as he has become an even more extreme flyballer. His FB% now sits at a career high, which will cap his BABIP potential. With an 18.8% Barrel%, it’s hard to argue his power output has been fluky. The one disappointment here has been just one stolen base. Given the ever present risk of injury, the lack of steals, and the xwOBA overperformance (though I expect that xwOBA to improve), he’s not a bad name to float around in trade ideas to reduce your risk.

For the full list of xwOBA underperformers and overperformers, plus a plethora of additional metrics for both pitchers and batters updated weekly, visit ProjectingX.com to learn more about and subscribe to ProjectingX IQ.