FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 6)


Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.

Batters: I don’t see any difference makers coming. I’m sure there will be, but it seems like a season where the last two to three spots need to be streamed.

Ildemaro Vargas: Well, the hitting streak (24 games) finally came to an end for this season’s breakout/miracle (6 HR, .404 AVG). The key behind his breakout is lifting the ball a little more, going from a 58% GB% to 43% GB%.

Brooks Lee: Improvements across the board (more Contact%, lifting the ball more) have him with 5 HR, 2 SB, and .252 AVG

Nathan Church: While he’s struggling to hit for average (.236 AVG), he has 5 HR and 3 SB. He’s improved his Contact% and maxEV this season. Possible breakthrough.

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Cole Young: A steady contributor (.276 AVG, 3 HR, 2 SB) who has started every game this season.

Nathaniel Lowe: Starting at DH every game with Eugenio Suárez on the IL. Lowe is hitting a .273 AVG with 5 HR. He’s been able to cut his strikeout rate from 26% to 16%.

Brayan Rocchio: Hitting a solid yet boring .279/.353/.404 with 3 HR and 2 SB.

Jung Hoo Lee 이정후: I was a little surprised to see Lee under the 40% roster threshold, but barely hitting home runs (2) with no stolen bases. His .298 AVG is a nice bonus.

Brandon Marsh: He started seeing time against left-handed pitching, but then got banged up. He’s been solid with a .304 AVG, 4 HR, and 3 SB. I’m a little worried the platoon will return.

Casey Schmitt: Starting while providing some batting average (.302 AVG) and power (4 HR).

Nasim Nuñez: If you need steals (14 SB), add Nunez. If you don’t need steals, ignore him (.525 OPS).

Travis Bazzana: In 13 PA so far, he hasn’t gotten a hit but has walked four times. I could see 15 to 20 home run and stolen base upside, but a major drain on a team’s batting average.

Jose Fernandez: He continues to hit (.322 AVG) and has 3 HR. He doesn’t have a set position to play, so he bounces around the field, thereby limiting his playing time.

Troy Johnston: While he could hit .300 since he plays half his games in Denver, he doesn’t hit for enough power. Over the last three seasons, he has not hit a ball over 108 mph, a bare minimum to show any home run power.

Carlos Cortes: Strong-side platoon bat has 4 HR and a .386 AVG (.390 BABIP).

Daniel Schneemann: A .429 BABIP and 64% Contact% are battling it to see who influences his .313 AVG the most. In addition to the batting average, he is hitting for some power (4 HR) and running (2 SB). And finally, he starts most of the time with eight starts in the last 10 games.

Hyeseong Kim 김혜성: Strong-side platoon bat who has stolen some bases (5 SB) with a .304 AVG.

Nick Gonzales: Volume play with a .333 AVG but 0 HR. He doesn’t lift the ball enough to hit many home runs.

Masyn Winn: While he’s only hit 1 HR, his profile has remained the same, 10 HR/10 SB and a .250 AVG. Maybe the stolen bases will tick up since he’s already stolen four.

Ronny Mauricio: He’s struggling with his plate discipline (35% K%, 0% BB%) in 29 PA. Had a .638 SLG in AAA but it’s down to .310 in the majors. I don’t know how to value him. Update: Headed to the IL, drop.

Jasson Domínguez: While he tore up AAA (.326/.415/.478, 3 HR, 8 SB), the production has not yet translated to the majors this season (.311 OPS). Could be a solid source of steals.

Edouard Julien: Strong-side platoon bat who is hitting a solid .289 with 2 HR and 2 SB.

Matt Shaw: Only five starts in the last 10 games. No matter his production (.289 AVG, 3 HR, 2 SB), he doesn’t have enough playing time to be fantasy-relevant.

Vaughn Grissom: Even though he’s cut this strikeout rate from 21% to 8%, he started only about half the time. Fantasy irrelevant.

Catchers

Luis Campusano: A .400 BABIP will make any hitter look great (.326 AVG, 3 HR). It’s only taken him five seasons to live up to the hype.

Pedro Pagés: Started in six of the last 10 games while hitting a respectable .261/.307/.435 with 3 HR and 2 SB on the season.

Hitting Prospects

Ryan Waldschmidt: In AAA, the 23-year-old outfielder is batting .293/.396/.491 with 3 HR and 5 SB in 140 PA.

George Lombard Jr.: Across two minor league levels (AA and AAA), the 20-year-old third baseman is batting .310/.402/.540 with 4 HR and 4 SB.

A.J. Ewing: Across two minor league levels (AA and AAA), the 21-year-old outfielder is batting .395/.515/.618 with 2 HR and 15 SB in 97 PA.

Franklin Arias: In AA, the 20-year-old shortstop is batting .375/.432/.764 with 8 HR and 2 SB in 81 PA.

Injured Hitters

Anthony Volpe: Hit .278/.325/.361 so far over his rehab assignment. He could be promoted any day.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: Currently on a rehab assignment in AA with just 5 PA so far. Could be a decent source of steals if he can secure full-time at-bats once promoted.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Cole Young 40% 50% 10%
Jung Hoo Lee 39% 46% 7%
Ildemaro Vargas 37% 75% 38%
Jasson Dominguez 37% 49% 12%
Travis Bazzana 33% 65% 32%
Brandon Marsh 30% 39% 9%
Masyn Winn 28% 33% 5%
Brooks Lee 27% 40% 13%
Ryan Waldschmidt 27% 30% 3%
Jose Fernandez 26% 36% 10%
Anthony Volpe 26% 30% 4%
Matt Shaw 25% 27% 2%
Brayan Rocchio 23% 29% 6%
Troy Johnston 21% 24% 3%
Hye Seong Kim 20% 30% 10%
Daniel Schneemann 19% 31% 12%
Nasim Nunez 17% 24% 7%
George Lombard 16% 18% 2%
Casey Schmitt 13% 25% 12%
Carlos Cortes 12% 47% 35%
Nick Gonzales 12% 19% 7%
Franklin Arias 11% 14% 3%
Edouard Julien 10% 12% 2%
Ronny Mauricio 8% 10% 2%
Ha-seong Kim 8% 9% 1%
A.J. Ewing 7% 10% 3%
Nathan Church 4% 25% 21%
Luis Campusano 4% 8% 4%
Nate Lowe 3% 13% 10%
Pedro Pages 2% 4% 2%
Vaughn Grissom 2% 4% 2%

Starting Pitchers

Chase Dollander: Among the pitchers with at least 30 IP, his 23.1% K%-BB% ranks 11th in the league. I can understand fantasy managers don’t believe in a Colorado pitcher, but his results have been outstanding. As I write this, he has not thrown at home against the Braves. The expectation is that he’ll struggle, but if he holds his own, this will be the last chance to roster him. [Update: he struggled with 3 K, 3 BB, 6 ER in 5 IP. I still see him as the top add.]

Cade Cavalli: After struggling with walks over his first four starts (6.9 BB/9), he’s only walked two batters over the next three (1.2 BB/9). In those three starts (NYM, ATL, SFG), he has a 3.00 ERA (1.84 xFIP), 1.60 WHIP (.419 BABIP), and 15.0 K/9. I’d gamble on the last three games being real and prioritize him where available.

Sean Burke: While he has had his ups (8 K, 0 ER on Saturday) and downs (four-game stretch with 4.77 xFIP), he seems to have broken the 4.00 ERA talent barrier for many guys on the waiver wire and is a solid target.

Peter Lambert: While I’d like to see a lower walk rate (4.1 K/9), everything else looks good with a 3.52 ERA (3.54 xFIP), 1.24 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9. While I don’t 100% believe in him, he can’t be ignored.

Connor Prielipp: The strikeouts are there for him to be a solid pitcher, but a 29% GB (1.3 HR/9) and 3.2 BB/9 are preventing him from being elite. A 4.00 ERA talent … for now.

Chris Paddack: Everything he’s throwing is getting crushed (.337 BABIP, 1.6 HR/9, 6.11 ERA) while his ERA estimators (3.93 xFIP, 3.88 SIERA) and STUPH models (3.49 botERA, 103 Pitching+) point to an above-average pitcher. Gamble on upside here.

Kumar Rocker: There are no signs of breakout … just a fine pitcher. He’s upped his groundball rate to 56% and seems a solid 4.00 ERA talent right now.

Janson Junk: By limiting hard contact (0.6 HR/9, .248 BABIP), he’s getting by with a 5.7 K/9. Our STUPH models love him with a 3.26 botERA (14th best value among qualified pitchers) and a 110 Pitching+. With so many blah talents in this range, I moved Junk to the front of the pack based on those STUPH grades.

Foster Griffin: He’s not 2.67 ERA good (.233 BABIP, 90% LOB%), but he should be at least a waiver wire streamer. His projections and ERA estimators point to a 4.00 ERA pitcher.

Dustin May: His demand is from a two-start week. In his first start, he went 6 IP with 2 K, 2 BB, and 2 BB against the Pirates. I hoped for a step forward with his fastball velocity up 2 mph from last season, but his strikeout rate is down from 8.4 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. A .385 BABIP is inflating his 5.28 ERA (4.16 xFIP) and 1.53 WHIP (2.1 BB/9), so he seems to be a low-4.00 ERA pitcher.

Luis Severino: After a great start against Kansas City (7 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 1 ER), he has two starts next week against Philadelphia and Baltimore. His early-season struggles stemmed from a 7.3 BB/9 over his first five starts. Over the last two, he has a 2.0 BB/9. I want to see how he does in the two-step before buying in.

Jake Irvin: He’s been a rollercoaster with his walks being the issue.

1, 2, 5, 3, 0, 0, 4

Overall, he’s struggled (4.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) but his ERA Estimators are closer to 4.00 (4.27 xFIP, 3.91 SIERA). Overall, he could be fine, but enjoy the ride.

Jake Bennett: In his MLB debut, the 25-year-old lasted 5 IP, allowing 1 ER, 3 K, and 2 BB. His changeup had a 23% SwStr% in the start. At this point, I can’t find a way to hate or like him, so he gets stuck in the middle.

JR Ritchie: His 2.92 ERA (.226 BABIP, 93% LOB%) is the only positive sign over this first two starts. He continues to struggle to find the plate (4.4 BB/9 in the majors, 4.3 BB/9 in AAA), and the low BABIP is the only thing keeping his WHIP in check. At best, I see a 4.50 ERA talent, but he could perform even worse.

Elmer Rodríguez: He struggled in his debut with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). Since he didn’t immediately get demoted, it seems like he’ll get another start. Maybe bet on the upside but monitor with him on the bench.

Aaron Civale: A little bit of luck (82% LOB%, 0.9 HR/9, a career 1.3 HR/9) has him off to a nice start (3.23 ERA). I believe in his projections and ERA estimators that point to a 4.50 ERA arm.

Patrick Corbin: I don’t want Corbin to be a thing, but here we are. The projections hate him, but he’s pitching cromulently (3.65 ERA 4.24 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 7.3 K/9).

Jack Kochanowicz: A .233 BABIP is the only thing keeping him from being one of the league’s worst starters. Of the 98 starters with 30 IP, his 4.1 K%-BB% is the second worst (Simeon Woods Richardson at a 1.9% K%-BB%). The only item he can build off is a 61% GB%.

Kyle Leahy: I wondered why a solid 4.50 to 5.00 ERA talent was being added and I guessed right … a two start week (vs MIL, at SD). There is nothing to grasp onto with every trait getting worse (e.g., strikeouts, walks, velocity) as he tries to transition from relieving to starting.

Tomoyuki Sugano: Don’t buy the 2.84 ERA (90% LOB%, .240 BABIP). I know Dollander seems to be breaking the Rockies’ curse, but he’s doing it with good underlying numbers. Sugano is doing it with help from Jobu and an Ouija board.

Martín Pérez: He’s fine in a 4.25 ERA to 4.50 ERA kind of way. The biggest question mark surrounding him will be his role with Spencer Strider returning from the IL.

Brandon Young: He doesn’t miss enough bats (5.5 K/9) and walks way too many guys (3.1 BB/9) to be useful at this point (6.14 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP).

Pitching Prospects

Logan Henderson: In AAA, the 24-year-old righty has a 1.02 ERA (3.55 xFIP), 1.19 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9 in 17 IP.

Thomas White: In AAA, the 21-year-old lefty has a 2.41 ERA (3.14 xFIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 in 12 IP.

Kade Anderson: In AA, the 21-year-old lefty has a 0.48 ERA (2.07 xFIP), 0.70 WHIP, and 14.5 K/9 in 18 IP.

Robby Snelling: In AAA, the 22-year-old lefty has a 2.25 ERA (2.94 xFIP), 1.04 WHP, and 13.1 K/9 in 24 IP.

Anthony Eyanson: In High-A, the 21-year-old righty has a 0.54 ERA (0.93 xFIP), 0.36 WHIP, and 14.6 K/9 in 16 IP.

Injured Pitchers

Griffin Canning: Struggling with command (7.2 BB/9) in 15 IP at AAA.

Jared Jones: All I know right now is from this tweet:

Lucas Giolito: Returning soon, and I have little to no expectation he’ll provide more fantasy value than three-quarters of the above ranking.

José Berríos: In his AAA rehab starts, his fastball velocity is down 1 mph, and he has as many walks as strikeouts (2).

CBS Starting Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Foster Griffin 38% 53% 15%
Robby Snelling 37% 41% 4%
Luis Severino 36% 43% 7%
Chase Dollander 33% 64% 31%
JR Ritchie 33% 57% 24%
Jared Jones 33% 43% 10%
Dustin May 32% 44% 12%
Cade Cavalli 26% 41% 15%
Jack Kochanowicz 26% 35% 9%
Thomas White 26% 28% 2%
Kade Anderson 26% 28% 2%
Logan Henderson 25% 30% 5%
Kumar Rocker 19% 24% 5%
Aaron Civale 19% 22% 3%
Ben Brown 16% 18% 2%
Lucas Giolito 14% 18% 4%
Peter Lambert 14% 34% 20%
Connor Prielipp 13% 30% 17%
Jose Berrios 13% 16% 3%
Sean Burke 12% 14% 2%
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz 10% 25% 15%
Tomoyuki Sugano 10% 16% 6%
Kyle Leahy 9% 11% 2%
Janson Junk 8% 17% 9%
Jake Irvin 6% 8% 2%
Martin Perez 5% 8% 3%
Patrick Corbin 4% 6% 2%
Brandon Young 3% 7% 4%
Anthony Eyanson 3% 5% 2%
Chris Paddack 3% 4% 1%
Griffin Canning 3% 4% 1%
Jake Bennett 1% 7% 6%

Relief Pitchers: Saves-based ranks

Gus Varland: Good reliever who is the closer.

Jacob Latz: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Jack Perkins: Great reliever who just might be the closer.

Gregory Soto: Great reliever who seems to be sharing the closer’s role.

Bryan King: Average reliever who is the closer for a few more weeks until Josh Hader comes off the IL.

Tyler Phillips: Good reliever who is now the closer with Pete Fairbanks on the IL.

Rico Garcia: Good reliever who could temporarily be the closer.

Andrew Kittredge: Good reliever who could temporarily be the closer.

Kyle Finnegan: Stepping in as the closer while Kenley Jansen deals with an injury.

Antonio Senzatela: Below-average reliever who is the backup closer, maybe even the closer. It’s the Rockies, does it really matter?

Ben Brown: Average reliever who could be the closer for a day or two until Daniel Palencia comes off the IL.

Sam Bachman: Average reliever who could be the closer.

Kody Funderburk: Average reliever who could be the closer.

Ryan Zeferjahn: Average reliever who could be the closer.

Justin Topa: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.

Calvin Faucher: Average reliever who is now the backup closer.

Erik Miller: Good reliever who could be the backup closer.

Keaton Winn: Good reliever who could be the backup closer.

Erik Sabrowski: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Grant Taylor: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Juan Morillo: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Phil Maton: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.

Jason Adam: Good reliever who could be the backup closer.

Adrian Morejon: Good reliever who could be the backup closer.

Dylan Lee: Great reliever who is a step or two away from closing.

Tyler Rogers: Below-average reliever who might be the backup closer.

Ben Joyce: On the IL, but should return to a high-leverage role.

Tyler Kinley: Average reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Aaron Ashby: Great reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Anthony Nunez: Average reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

CBS Relief Pitcher Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Aaron Ashby 34% 37% 3%
Gregory Soto 33% 38% 5%
Erik Sabrowski 20% 23% 3%
Jason Adam 18% 20% 2%
Rico Garcia 17% 22% 5%
Ben Brown 16% 18% 2%
Grant Taylor 15% 16% 1%
Tyler Rogers 14% 16% 2%
Jacob Latz 11% 24% 13%
Adrian Morejon 11% 13% 2%
Ben Joyce 10% 11% 1%
Kyle Finnegan 8% 12% 4%
Juan Morillo 8% 12% 4%
Dylan Lee 6% 8% 2%
Antonio Senzatela 5% 13% 8%
Anthony Nunez 5% 7% 2%
Jack Perkins 4% 25% 21%
Gus Varland 4% 14% 10%
Andrew Kittredge 4% 5% 1%
Erik Miller 3% 8% 5%
Tyler Kinley 3% 5% 2%
Keaton Winn 3% 5% 2%
Phil Maton 3% 4% 1%
Calvin Faucher 2% 3% 1%
Tyler Phillips 1% 6% 5%
Sam Bachman 1% 2% 1%
Kody Funderburk 1% 2% 1%
Bryan King 9% 9% 0%
Justin Topa 1% 1% 0%
Ryan Zeferjahn 1% 1% 0%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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montrealMember since 2022
17 days ago

Great stuff. Excellent analysis. Ben Brown however is much more than an “average” reliever. But your column is very valuable so thanks for that. So many changes at closer already this year. More than half the teams. And we have only played a month and a bit.

Joel ChurninMember since 2022
16 days ago
Reply to  montreal

In my points league I find I’m cycling among Brown, Winn and Grant Taylor. All good but Brown plays for the best team by far so more chances for Holds